15-18 WKU Tourney-Bound
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Marsh01
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They will be in the 16-16 play in game and will play North Carolina if they win. That I can guarantee
I want as many lower conference upsets as possible it makes our first round game easier. WKU will obviously be in the first 4 in Dayton, but I want as many teams in small conferences to lose just to give us an even easier 16 seed.
jdubs30
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The last thing I'm worried about what 16 seed we play.
Marsh01
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We are going to be playing UNC Asheville. Pretty much a guarantee.
CorduroyG
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jdubs30
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Made the tourney last year. Lost to Pitt by 23.
StopCoolio
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This is a little dated but found one. In a word...small.
http://www.backingthepack.com/2011/11/11/2552275/previewing-unc-asheville
Marsh01
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Please...
UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (24-9) Team Scouting Report
Conference: Big south – 2012 Regular Season Champions (16-2)
RPI – 114
SOS – 219
Opponent SOS – 254
0-1 vs. Top 25 RPI
0-2 vs. Top 50 RPI
0-5 vs. Top 100 RPI
Notable Opponents:
North Carolina (lost 91-75)
NC State (lost 84-75)
Uconn (lost 73-63)
Tennessee (lost 72-68)
Season Summary:
Preseason UNC Asheville was picked to win the Big South Conference and won it by 4 games over Coastal Carolina. The only teams in conference to beat them were Charleston Southern and Coastal Carolina.
They finished the season with a school record 24 wins. They played a very strong non conference schedule which included many BCS teams however the only team they were able to beat was lowly Utah. They also played Ohio in a bracketbusters game and got blown out 81-62
They advanced to the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament. The Bulldogs had little trouble with any of their opponents in the Big south tournament as they beat High Point, Charleston Southern and finally VMI to capture the automatic bid on their home floor. It was the second straight year that they have won their conference tournament. Last year in the NCAA tournament they faced Arkansas Little Rock one of the “play-in” games defeating the Trojans 81-77. They then advanced to play #1 seed Pitt in their first round game. They hung with the top seeded Panthers for about 30 minutes before eventually losing 71-54 and thus ending their season.
Team Summary:
UNC-Asheville’s roster is dominated by upper classmen. Four of their top 6 players are seniors and the other 2 are juniors. Their top 5 scorers all average in double figures. This team was 5th in the country in PPG averaging 81.2 points per contest. They also share the ball well and finished 8th in assists per game dishing out 16.6. They are a good shooting team and have a .484 FG% per game which ranks them 16th nationally. They are an average rebounding team averaging 34.7 RPG. The one thing this team can do is shoot FT’s. They are one of the top FT shooting teams in the country shooting a whopping .762% from the FT line. They have 5 players averaging over 75% and 2 players who average over 85%
This is a VERY small team who plays a predominately 3 guard starting 5. They do not start a player above 6’5”. The fact that they are in the top 50% of rebounding teams in the country with such little height is pretty remarkable. They average 11 offensive rebounds per game.
They are not a great three point shooting team despite playing so many perimeter players. They only have one player who averages over 40% from three point range and that is one of their reserves Quinard Jackson and he is only 9-20 for the season. In their conference tournament they went a combined 12-55 from behind the arc which only equates to about 22%.
Defensively they do average about 8 steals a game however they only block about 3 shots per game. They are a team that takes care of the ball while averaging just under 13 turnovers per contest.
They do have decent rebounding guards who average 3.3 RPG respectively and their 2 forwards average 6.3 and 6.6 RPG.
Player Summary:
Their best player is senior guard Matt Dickey. He was the Big South’s pre-season player of the year and ended up winning that award at the end of the season. He is a 6’1” guard who averages 16.5 ppg, and dishes out 3.6 assists per game. He is a decent three point shooter who has made 61 shots from behind the arc this season and averages .381% from three point range. He also averages 3.4 RPG and 3.6 APG. He is also a deadly foul shooter averaging close to 87% from the charity stripe.
Dickey’s backcourt mate is senior 6’1”guard JP Primm. He averages 15.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 4.2 APG. He has made 71 three pointers this season. Much like Dailey Primm is also a very good FT shooter at 84%.
Asheville’s third starting player is a combo senior G-F Chris Stephenson. He is listed at 6’4” and averages 13.1 PPG. He is a decent rebounder for his size averaging over 6 boards a game. He has also made 20 three pointers this season. He has committed 3 fouls per game and needs to stay on the floor for the Bulldogs.
Starting at one of the 2 frontcourt positions is junior F Jeremy Atkinson. He is listed at 6’4” and averages 11.7 PPG. He is their best rebounder who averages 6.6 RPG and has also made 14 three point shots this season. He also is a very good FT shooter who averages close to 75% from the line.
Rounding out their starting 5 is senior F Quinard Jackson. He is listed at 6’5” and averages 5.1 PPG. He also averages 3.3 RPG. As far as percentage wise he is their best three point shooter but he has only attempted 20 three point shots this season while making nearly half of them at 9.
Their top reserve is junior G-F Jaron Lane. He is listed at 6’4” and averages 11.3 PPG. He also averages 4 RPG and shoots it at almost 80% from the charity stripe. He has only made 12 three pointers this season while attempting 41.
Final Summary:
UNC Asheville is a heavy upper classmen team that certainly is no stranger to winning big games. They are the 2 time Big South Champions and will be playing in their second straight NCAA tournament. They also will not be intimidated by playing a #1 seed given their strong non conference schedule coupled with having played against a #1 seed in last years NCAA Tournament.
This team likes to score and will not be a team that will milk the shot clock on every possession. Given the lack of size on this team they will struggle against any team with size, especially on the interior. They certainly need to make shots, especially from behind the arc and that really isn’t a forte of this team. They need the right matchup in the NCAA tourney and will struggle to compete with a team like Kentucky, Syracuse or North Carolina because of the size and length of these 3 teams. In their one game against UNC this season (which was a home game for the Bulldogs) they were able to keep it respectable despite being dominated on the glass. They did make 8 three point shots and took advantage of 17 Tar Heel turnovers. This was only the second game of the season for both teams.
I do not see this team being a problem for any #1 seed as long as the #1 seed does not let this team hang around into the second half. If they are able to make shots and rebound then they may put a scare into a #1 seed. They do have experience on their side however. They are going to need it.
Marsh01
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Breakdown
SEED GRID
14-Davidson (66)
14-Loyola (MD) (77)
------------------------------
15-Valparaiso (88) or Detroit (135, but that’s deceiving. They will be no worse than a 15)
15-Montana (87) or Weber State (73)
15-Bucknell (89) or Lehigh (112)
15-LIU Brooklyn (91) or Robert Morris (108)
--------------------------------
16-UT Arlington (100) or another Southland team, like Lamar (126)
16-UNC Asheville (112)
16-Vermont (157) or Stony Brook (145)
16-Western Kentucky (198)
16-SWAC Champ (fave is Missisippi Valley State -158)
16-MEAC Champ (fave is Savannah State - 185)
NOTES/ANALYSIS: The 16 seed pool has changed by one team. For the second straight year, the Sun Belt now has a lock 16 seed, play-in game team because of tournament upsets. As a result, I now think the NEC Champ will be a 15 seed. Notice, they moved up one slot on my grid. The NEC champ has received a 15 seed each of the last 3 years (it was LIU or Bob Morris each time) and will again. So they are off our radar. Davidson winning the Southern title prevented another new entrant into the 16 seed pool. Tonight’s Summit League championship game is really the final chance for a totally new team from a different conference to enter the 16 seed pool, if Western Illinois (159) wins it. But I think South Dakota State (55), playing almost at home, will run them off the floor at home and earn the 13 seed that ORU was supposed to get. The title games the next couple days involving those 15 seeds on my grid above won’t matter and any upsets in the Southland, MEAC, and SWAC tourneys later in the week won’t matter. I think the 16 seed pool will be set after tonight, in terms of what conferences make it up: Southland, Big South, Amer. East, Sun Belt, SWAC, and MAC.
BOTTOM LINE: The more I analyze it the more it’s coming up UNC Asheville as our opponent, especially after what happened last night.I think the bottom four 16 seeds on my grid will be in the play-in games. One winner will draw Kentucky, and the other winner will draw North Carolina. So Syracuse will get a 16 seed directly -- UNC Asheville. And Kansas will get the other one -- UT Arlington or whoever the Southland Champ is.
I will still watch the America East title game keenly, but my gut feeling is that the winner is going to the play-in game and as a result getting Kentucky or one of the 1 seeds playing Friday. Remember, Ky. and SU cannot both have a play-in game winner. Only one of us can and it’s them right now. So UNC or Kansas get the other play-in game. I say UNC because Greensboro is 300 miles closer to Dayton (play-in site) than Omaha is. But more importantly, it makes more sense to send a Southland Conf. team directly to Omaha than to Greensboro.
Marsh01
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I told you, I watch lot of basketball...
orange79
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Why? Dates of the sub-regionals in comparison with the PIGs?
Marsh01
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Because Kentucky and Syracuse will both be playing Thurs.
OrlandoCuse
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We're going to be playing a play-in game winner out of Dayton. Pittsburgh is a short distance from Dayton, the committee will minimize the travel required from the Tuesday night game by feeding them into Pittsburgh.
orange79
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I guess I'm being dense. Is there a rule that says only 1 PIG winner can play on Thursday?
Marsh01
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I dont see it. They cant logistically put a play in winner against both us and KY because one 16 seed play in game is Tuesday and one is Wednesday. Its the second one (Wednesday) that has go to a Friday site which would be UNC or Kansas. They wont force a team to play back to back days.
orange79
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Ah, got it.
OrlandoCuse
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Is it a guarantee that there is a 16-16 and 12-12 play in each night? Or can they have all of the 16 seeds play on the first night?
Regardless, there is a high probability that 114th rated UNC-Asheville will get bumped to a 15 seed after you take into account a few upsets from lower seeded teams during conference tourneys.
Dayton to Louisville is actually closer. I think Marsh is right about this one.
I don't like UNC Asheville though. 1 seeds are supposed to be stress free in round 1. We won't lose that game, but UNC Asheville won't be intimidated by playing a 1, and may actually give a 1 seed something of a game.
