2021 MLB Season

[UpstateSM]

JD not scoring on the Renfroe double earlier felt like a big deal in the moment

 

[bpo57]

Whitlock gets six outs on 15 pitches. Wow.

 

[jncuse]

What? No. He doesn't. That is insane. Fenway is unique. There is a big difference between 2ud and 3rd. A hit to LF often doesn't score you.

The probability difference is nowhere near enough to justify the risk of making the 3rd out at 3rd base.

 

[bpo57]

What? No. He doesn't. That is insane. Fenway is unique. There is a big difference between 2ud and 3rd. A hit to LF often doesn't score you.

Not mention wild pitch, passed ball, error, infield hit etc.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

The probability difference is nowhere near enough to justify the risk of making the 3rd out at 3rd base.

He didn’t though.

 

[bpo57]

The probability difference is nowhere near enough to justify the risk of making the 3rd out at 3rd base.

It took an absolute perfect throw and he still probably wasn't out.

 

[rrlbees]

I think he may be safe.

But going for 3rd on that play (with 2 outs) was so, so stupid baserunning.

you don’t make the first or third out at third.

 

[Alsacs]

Getting to 3rd at Fenway is huge.
Base hits to left don’t score people from 2nd unless they are really fast or it’s not a line drive.

 

[dasher]

you don’t make the first or third out at third.

He didn't. And how many visits does the pitching coach for the Rays get?

 

[jncuse]

Not mention wild pitch, passed ball, error, infield hit etc.

Those scenarios add up to much less than 10% of plate appearances. So there is a reward to getting to third (with 2 outs) in minimal scenarios. But to take that risk you have to pretty much know for sure you will be safe.

Dasher does raise a fair point on the hit to left field at Fenway. That adds a few percentage points as well to the plus side which needs to be considered in the risk / reward analysis. But that is also largely mitigated by the fact that Vazquez only hits 22% of his flyballs to left field, and 78% to center or right.

The numbers just don't add up to the risk in my opinion. And I doubt you will find many coaches agreeing with the tactic (even in Fenway, which is a fair point) -- otherwise you would start getting managers to tell runners to try to steal 3rd with 2 outs which is totally unheard of. Heck modern day managers don't like risking anything for an extra base like an SB because of analytics.

 

[jncuse]

Getting to 3rd at Fenway is huge.
Base hits to left don’t score people from 2nd unless they are really fast or it’s not a line drive.

78% of Vazquez outfield hits are to center or right.

 

[dasher]

pinch run for Vasquez?

 

[NineOneSeven]

pinch run for Vasquez?

Cant

 

[Alsacs]

If Kike bunts to the right side the game is over.

 

[Alsacs]

Good bye Tampa.
Thanks for the 100 win season.
Please enjoy your 4 game stay in the playoffs.
Do not pass go and go move to Montreal.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

And all is right with the world

 

[UpstateSM]

 

[jncuse]

78% of Vazquez outfield hits are to center or right.

I'm watching the game on a tad of a delay.
Of course he gets a hit to left field!

 

[rrlbees]

He didn't. And how many visits does the pitching coach for the Rays get?

i know he didn’t. It was the reverse way of saying taking a chance with 1 out was the right decision. Took a great throw and catch to maybe get him.

 

[dasher]

Good bye Tampa.
Thanks for the 100 win season.
Please enjoy your 4 game stay in the playoffs.
Do not pass go and go move to Montreal.

I hope they have popcorn on their flight to Tampa.

 

[dasher]

let us not forget the start by E-Rod. He was terrific

 

[Alsacs]

I actually think Houston is a better playoff team but their pitching isn’t as good as Chicago’s.

Chicago has better SP. Houston has the better lineup and playoff pedigree.

 

[dasher]

I actually think Houston is a better playoff team but their pitching isn’t as good as Chicago’s.

Chicago has better SP. Houston has the better lineup and playoff pedigree.

I just hope it goes 5

 

[bpo57]

Those scenarios add up to much less than 10% of plate appearances. So there is a reward to getting to third (with 2 outs) in minimal scenarios. But to take that risk you have to pretty much know for sure you will be safe.

Dasher does raise a fair point on the hit to left field at Fenway. That adds a few percentage points as well to the plus side which needs to be considered in the risk / reward analysis. But that is also largely mitigated by the fact that Vazquez only hits 22% of his flyballs to left field, and 78% to center or right.

The numbers just don't add up to the risk in my opinion. And I doubt you will find many coaches agreeing with the tactic (even in Fenway, which is a fair point) -- otherwise you would start getting managers to tell runners to try to steal 3rd with 2 outs which is totally unheard of. Heck modern day managers don't like risking anything for an extra base like an SB because of analytics.

I think u underrate the importance of being on 3rd compared to being on 2nd at Fenway. I've seen a lot worse baserunning blunders than that. But let's agree to disagree.

 

[dasher]

I think u underrate the importance of being on 3rd compared to being on 2nd at Fenway. I've seen a lot worse baserunning blunders than that. But let's agree to disagree.

I understand why non red sox fans would think that was so bad. They haven't lived with short hits to LF not scoring runs. We have. For me, it's over 55 years. Bees is correct. You never want to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base. but even the opposing teams try to get to third and risk being thrown out.