2021 MLB Season

[bpo57]

I understand why non red sox fans would think that was so bad. They haven't lived with short hits to LF not scoring runs. We have. For me, it's over 55 years. Bees is correct. You never want to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base. but even the opposing teams try to get to third and risk being thrown out.

Yeah it's an easier call in hindsight but it took a perfect throw and I still think he was safe.

 

[jncuse]

I think u underrate the importance of being on 3rd compared to being on 2nd at Fenway. I've seen a lot worse baserunning blunders than that. But let's agree to disagree.

I'll do the math to support my take.

Teams make an error on approximately every 60 batters - 1.7% extra chance of scoring by taking 3rd with 2 out

Teams average less than one pass ball or wild pitch per game (given that there are 40 batters on an average in a game - 2.5% chance of scoring by taking that extra base (if now lower)

Fenway Left Field Factor (which I agree is unique) - 22% of his hits were to left field. He had 88 singles, so let's say 20 of his singles were to left over 458 at bats. So that is 5.0% of his at bats are singles to left field. But certainly not all singles to left will result in him not scoring. But for the purpose of this calculation let's assume 80% of the time the player is held at third in Fenway. So taking that extra base results in 4.0% of his at bats resulting in the runner scoring from 3rd but not 2nd. (5.0% * 80%).

Those add up to 8.2% of at bats including hits to left field.

Now let's look at situations where a hit would score him from second:

In 458 at bats, Vazques had 30 extra base hits, and 68 singles to Center or Right.
98/458 = 21.4%. But you must also consider the following:
a) Vazquez also has a 7% Walk Rate -- assume that batter behind him has a similar 21% rate, so we need to add a few extra % to the probabilities. So let's make it 1.5%
b) Also if the batter is held at third on a Single to Left (4.0% of the time), he still has a chance to score again via hit, error, wild pitch. So let's add another 1.0%


So if that player stays at second he has a 24% chance of scoring in the next at bat via hit.
If he goes to third on that play he now has a 32-33% of scoring in the next at bat (via hit or abnormaility)

So by running for third on that play you are doing the following:
#1) Increasing your run probability by 8% if you are safe (Granted Vazquez pull hits are low, so the rates are lower for him-- a higher pull hitter might be closer to 12-13%)
#2) Decreasing your run probability by 24% if you are out.

Numbers don't add up to taking any real risk.

 

[jncuse]

I understand why non red sox fans would think that was so bad. They haven't lived with short hits to LF not scoring runs. We have. For me, it's over 55 years. Bees is correct. You never want to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base. but even the opposing teams try to get to third and risk being thrown out.

I do the numbers. I am a numbers guy,

Just because you have seen many hits go to left that do not score the runner, which I entirely believer to be the case, does not mean the risk makes sense.
.
The numbers do not add up to risk a close play - Fenway park or not.
Fenway makes the risk more worthy however.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah it's an easier call in hindsight but it took a perfect throw and I still think he was safe.

It has nothing to do with hindsight.
Whether the runner would have been safe on a close play or out, I would have hated the risk.
I hate dumb baserunning. Since I was 12.

Fenway or Not.

 

[jncuse]

I understand why non red sox fans would think that was so bad. They haven't lived with short hits to LF not scoring runs. We have. For me, it's over 55 years. Bees is correct. You never want to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base. but even the opposing teams try to get to third and risk being thrown out.

Why don't you respond to my numerical analysis and say why you support taking a chance that increases your run probability by 8%** (if safe) and reduces your run probability by 24% (if out). With Fenway Park considered.

** 8% with Vazquez. Up to 12-13% with more pull friendly hitters.

 

[bpo57]

It has nothing to do with hindsight.
Whether the runner would have been safe on a close play or out, I would have hated the risk.
I hate dumb baserunning. Since I was 12.

Fenway or Not.

You know what? At this point I couldn't care less.

 

[jncuse]

You know what? At this point I couldn't care less.

You should be happy with the victory and no longer give a crap or concern about the play or this conversation.

I am neither pro Boston winning or losing. I will defend my position and concern myself with a conversation when somebody incorrectly calls my comment insane (not you).

 

[jncuse]

Huge play by Crawford on Betts.

Good to see all of these series get to at least 4 games. Even the Boston series that went 4 could have went either way.

In recent years we have always had one or two sweeps in the divisional round -- every year going back to 2015 I believe.

The amount of sweeps in the first 6 years of the extra playoff round (1995-2000) was absurd. 11 out of 24 series were sweeps.

 

[OrangeDW]

Huge play by Crawford on Betts.

Good to see all of these series get to at least 4 games. Even the Boston series that went 4 could have went either way.

In recent years we have always had one or two sweeps in the divisional round -- every year going back to 2015 I believe.

The amount of sweeps in the first 6 years of the extra playoff round (1995-2000) was absurd. 11 out of 24 series were sweeps.

We’ve had some hard hit balls. They just all go right to them, or they make a great play.

Dodgers have only struck out 5 times. Giants have struck out 11.

Frustrating.

 

[OrangeDW]

Smh, wind at Dodger Stadium costing us a game.

Sports are stupid.

 

[dasher]

Smh, wind at Dodger Stadium costing us a game.

Sports are stupid.

Very tough loss. I hadn't been watching because of the Sox game. I thought the last ball was gone. What is the pitching match up tomorrow? ESPN doesn't have anything.

 

[Cowtown]

1.) Congrats to the Sox, I didn't think anyone in the AL was going to beat Tampa.

2.) Fenway is a nightmare. Too many odd features that make for bizarre plays. I appreciate longevity and tradition, but it was never a good baseball facility in the first place. It should be flattened and turned into a parking garage. Or condos. Or a skateboard park.

 

[jncuse]

Very tough loss. I hadn't been watching because of the Sox game. I thought the last ball was gone. What is the pitching match up tomorrow? ESPN doesn't have anything.

Are you sure you want to watch an NL Game? You might not understand it.

 

[OrangeDW]

Very tough loss. I hadn't been watching because of the Sox game. I thought the last ball was gone. What is the pitching match up tomorrow? ESPN doesn't have anything.

DeSclafani for the Giants. Dodgers haven’t said yet.

It would appear to be either Buehler on 3 days rest. Or Gonsolin.

According to ESPN, the Dodgers had 9 of the 13 batted balls that were over 100+ mph. 7 of the 9 went for outs. That’s the tough thing about baseball - you can actually play better, and still lose. That’s baseball though. Pretty absurd that extreme wind in LA hurt our cause. I would’ve never thought of that angle before it happened.

 

[jncuse]

DeSclafani for the Giants. Dodgers haven’t said yet.

It would appear to be either Buehler on 3 days rest. Or Gonsolin.

According to ESPN, the Dodgers had 9 of the 13 batted balls that were over 100+ mph. 7 of the 9 went for outs. That’s the tough thing about baseball - you can actually play better, and still lose. That’s baseball though. Pretty absurd that extreme wind in LA hurt our cause. I would’ve never thought of that angle before it happened.

It's typical Giants playoffs. And really Dodgers playoffs as well (since 1988). One has October luck the other doesn't. I don't mean to pain with you the details.

I don't know how the Giants did it in this year or the recent playoffs for that matter -- how did a fairly veteran roster which was projected to win about 75 games win 107 games this year **? Or how have they won the World Series 3 of the last 4 times they were in the playoffs, when for the most part teams just can't dominate in the playoffs.

The Dodgers win 106 games. Don't win the division. And thankfully for you they won the title in 2020. Because playoffs post 1988 were quite painful. It's as if the Dodgers used up all their playoff luck for the next two generations in 1988, with the World Series roster I ever remember (in part due to injury)

 

[jncuse]

Don't take the term "Regular Season Dynasty" the wrong way, but in the last 5 years the Dodgers have probably had the best 5 year regular season run in a long, long time.

They are lucky to have financial resources to retain and sign away others. But you don't become dominant on that alone -- in factwe have seen teams dig holes that way at times. The player development and finding "Marginal" players from other teams is top level outstanding for the Dodgers as well.

The Giants on the other hand have seemingly just spent money with no real vision, not a great farm system, and have put together one of the oldest teams in baseball that was on the track to nowhere. In an era where young players prosper more quickly and veterans tend to regress a bit faster than previous eras , the Giants did the opposite, And won 107 games.

Brandon Crawford has his best season by far at the age of 34. (OPS of .895, when his best previous season was .782 in 2015)

Buster Posey who had a .688 OPS in 2019 ... has his best OPS since 2012 at the age of 34.

Brandon Belt has a best full season OPS at the age of 32.

Evan Longoria has been a mediocre MLB performer at best between 2017-2020. He has by far his best season since 2016 at the age of 35.

A 34 year old Darin Ruf has 0.2 career WAR after the age of 33. He was a very bad MLB player in his previous 900 appearances. Of course at 34 he has a WAR of 2.9 in only 262 at bats.

And there are a few more 27-30 year old position players that have had unexpected years like Lamont Wade.

We haven't even hit the pitching.

Kevin Gausman has 11.5 WAR over 8 years (an average of 1.4 per year). At the age of 30 he gets a career year of 5.3 WAR.

Anthony Descialfini has by far his best year of his career at the age of 31.

Alex Wood who had been pretty good up to 2018, was regressing fast since. Of course he turns it around at 30.

Johnny Cueto bounces back a bit at 35.

Jake Mcgee becomes a successful closer at 34.

Tyler Rogers has a career year at 30, with a WAR of 2.4 which might be the best amongst relievers this yar (Stand to be corrected).

Finding a quality bullpen is very hit and miss and the Giants hit on the guys they scrapped together.

 

[dasher]

I think in this Braves game, a pop up in the infield can't be reviewed. Because that ball hit the dirt.

 

[MSOrange]

I think in this Braves game, a pop up in the infield can't be reviewed. Because that ball hit the dirt.

That's the only thing I can figure because the replay was obvious to me, and I don't think it's my bias as a Braves fan. I don't understnd why it can't be reviewed, but the announcers just confirmed that was the reason.

 

[dasher]

That's the only thing I can figure because the replay was obvious to me, and I don't think it's my bias as a Braves fan. I don't understnd why it can't be reviewed, but the announcers just confirmed that was the reason.

I remembered that balls in the air in the infield can't be reviewed. How ridiculous. The same exact play is reviewed if it happens in the outfield. Maybe someday, they can explain to us mere mortals, what the difference is.

 

[Alsacs]

Glad the Astros used McCullers today.
Now he can’t start games 1 or 2 in Houston.
Make him start his first game at Fenway.

If I am Cora.
I go Pavetta game 1
Sale game 2
Eovaldi game 3
E-Rod game 4

Houck super reliever capable of going multiple innings.
Brazier/Taylor 6-7 inning guys.
Robles 8th inning guy
Whitlock 9th inning.

 

[Alsacs]

I think in this Braves game, a pop up in the infield can't be reviewed. Because that ball hit the dirt.

Latest from Boston media

 

[dasher]

Latest from Boston media

I actually watched today. they were VERY unhappy. All year they said the Sox sucked and now are saying the Red Sox are out of line to suggest that no one believed in them.

 

[MSOrange]

Brewers- Braves started 3 hours ago. We're in the 6th.

 

[bpo57]

Glad the Astros used McCullers today.
Now he can’t start games 1 or 2 in Houston.
Make him start his first game at Fenway.

If I am Cora.
I go Pavetta game 1
Sale game 2
Eovaldi game 3
E-Rod game 4

Houck super reliever capable of going multiple innings.
Brazier/Taylor 6-7 inning guys.
Robles 8th inning guy
Whitlock 9th inning.

I'd reverse it and go Eovaldi Game 2 and Sale Game 3. Eovaldi will have five days rest if he pitches Game 2. I'm not even sure I'd start Sale. He's looked like garbage his last few times out and Houston has a loaded right handed hitting lineup. I wouldn't be surprised if Cora goes with Eovaldi game 1. That's his best starter by far. If he pitches in Game 3 he may only get one start in the series on full rest.

 

[Alsacs]

So the WS will start in an AL park unless the Giants-Dodgers winner beats the Braves.

1. SF/LA winner
2. Houston
3. Boston
4. Atlanta