I made 38 bets for the weekend (all small stuff -- total bet was around $400). I spread my bets widely to help me keep entertained and always have something to follow throughout the weekend. Don't make much, won't lose much.
My best value bets IMO:
- Seniors to make the cut. Mike Weir at +225, Couples at +200, Langer at +130.
- Molinari top 20 at +350
- Hole in One at -175. They set up the pin at 16 on the last day like a sinkhole.
- Bubba Watson top 10 at +550. Lefties have a huge advantage at Augusta, he is coming off a top 10.
- Dustin Johnson -175 over Rory Mcilroy over 72 holes. Rory is a mess right now -- good guy hope he turns it around soon.
In creating my group to win it all I worked on the theory that historically players doing well over the first 3 months of the year tend to quite well here even if they have no real pedigree at Augusta. Many examples of this. First time I have tried this method for a major, so we will see if any are strong contenders.
So I sorted the WGR rankings by 2021 points only and took the 8 best players with odds of 25-1 and over, and I also added Bubba at 80-1 and Connors at 80-1.
Horschel at 90-1 is good value IMO. He is a streaky player. He was #1 and #2 in the past two WGC events (over the past 5 weeks) and is #1 in the world in 2021 points earned. He has poor history at Augusta which is why he is at 90-1.
The other 7 I have are - Finau, Morikawa, Homa, Casey, Westwood, Koepka, Scheffler. Koepka has been banged up which has to be the reason he is at 28-1. He has played well in regular events in 2021, which is typically not the case for him.