The best thing is to hope for separation between the top 3 and the rest. That requires lower table teams winning once in a while. Panama won't stay Top 4, like they are right now. (Edit: Well, maybe they will - see below.)
We got 6 points from 3 games, we rotated a lot of guys and gave them chances, and some new guys became part of the family in this last game - thinking Weah, Dest, Musah in this game tonight.
Every time one of these young guys has his own "special moment", that's like earning your stripes among the crew. They know you can deliver the goods. The more guys we have who are a threat to ripple the nets, the better!
In November we're back to "only" a 2 game window. Mexico home, and away to Jamaica. Jamaica's in last place in the Octagon, but have good athletes on the counterattack.
Panama has an easy October, playing 2 of the bottom teams (at Honduras, home to El Salvador), and will be expected to get 6 points from 6. That would give them 14 and make them pretty solid for Top 3 after the Third Round of Five (only January and March remain after the next 2 game window).
Canada, 1 point behind Panama in 4th, has 2 home games next time - Mexico and Costa Rica. This will be the huge window for them of qualifying. If they come up empty, or with say only 1 point from 2 home games while Panama runs 6, Canada will be in big trouble.
But it could be good for us. That's the separation the top 3 aspirants are looking for.
As we approach the next two game qualifying set, I just wanted to give some thoughts on where we are and what we've seen thus far.
National team coaches are notoriously conservative. They tend to go with "their guys" or guys they have had success with in the past, often long past their "use by" dates. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that they don't get to spend a lot of time with players, unlike club coaches.
Berhalter has been anything but. He has brought in 36 players through the first two qualifying rounds, 33 of them field players. Of the 33 field players he has brought in, 31 have seen the field. Compare that to Mexico's 32 and 26 and Panama's 32 and 23. If you assume 10 field players on each team, this means that Berhalter is dipping into his 4th team to get players and is getting those players on the field.
His playing rotations have been more reminiscent of a series of friendlies than what you see in qualifying or in a tournament. On average, he has started only 4.25 of the players who started the previous match. Compare that figure with Mexico's 6.5 (7.33 through the first five matches when - the last game of this cycle they did have the luxury of swapping out almost their entire line-up due to their point total at the top of the Octagonal) and to Panama's 10.
He also has not hesitated to play unproven guys in big spots:
Starting Richards in a must-win against Costa Rica and having him go the full 90.
Starting Pepi away at Honduras.
Bringing in Busio when trying to protect a lead in the Costa Rica game.
I would not be surprised, however, if recovery analytics were playing a big role in determining who is fit to play 90 and who isn't. And, of course, the critical injuries to both Pulisic, Reyna and McKennie's suspension have forced his hand.
So, let's give him credit for not doing the same ole, same ole. And the team has largely delivered as we do currently sit second in the point totals. I will give him an A for roster management.
So now, let's talk strategy, tactics and players.
We've talked about the substitutions during the Canada game. Those issues seem to have been rectified as he is both subbing more often and, arguably, more effectively.
We've talked about the formation for the Honduras game and playing Adams out right and Sands in the middle.
We've talked about the lack of spacing among the 9, the wings and the midfield against El Salvador..
Despite the loss to Panama, I think he did a better job during the second series of qualifiers. I think it is really hard to try to win all three games. I think the mindset has to be either win games 1 & 3 and try to get a point in game two, given our superior depth relative to everyone but Mexico, or win your home games and try to get points in the away qualifiers.
The second set of qualifiers played out like I thought they should (the first ones did not). Eight of the starters from the Jamaica started the Costa Rica game compared to only two starting the Panama game. We only got 6 of the desired 7 but I'll take it. I thought we played the Panama game to get a draw from the get go and, even though it did not work out, I do not have a problem with the strategy.
Berhlater also stuck with a 4-3-3 rather than trying to tinker too much with the formation.
I do think he will have to tighten up the roster as we continue to progress through qualifying. Had anyone but Ruiz intercepted that pass, the Costa Rica game could have turned out very differently. And turning over the entire backline and the goalkeeper is really taking a risk.
I give him a B for formation, tactics and players during the second series and a C overall as that first series had some real issues.
I think we are also seeing what the foundation of the team needs to be:
Dest and Robinson at outside back
Robinson at CB. The other one is still TBD
Musah, McKennie and Adams (the 6) as the midfield
Pepi as the 9
Pulisic (when healthy) as one winger. TBD on the other (Reyna not really a true winger and doesn't stay wide enough so I prefer Weah or Aaronson although Berhalter does have to figure a way to get him on the field as he is too talented not to be. That may necessitate a formation change if playing Reyna on the wing continues to create too much congestion in the middle as it did in the El Salvador game.
Hopefully, Orangefoo, you now understand why Dest needs to be on the field despite his defensive shortcomings. Soccer games, especially those at the intl level, are frequently won by moments of magic. Dest created two of those with his assist on Pepi's first goal vs and his screamer against Costa Rica. There are very few players on this roster who can conjure up those moments. Dest is one of them.
Adams needs to be the 6, period. (FYI, Orangefoo, Reyna is not a 6 and, even if he were, he is not the type of 6 the US team needs). Our biggest weakness, right now, IMHO is what we do if Adams goes down. Acosta can play the 6 but his distribution is awful.
It would also be nice to find someone else to play the 9 other than Zardes. I know he provides veteran leadership to a young team but he is alot like Arriola. He plays really hard but is not a difference-maker. Hopefully, Sargent or Pefok or Dike will improve enough to become the second choice striker.
I continue to not be sold on Berhalter. I believe he is improving but there is not much margin for error and he has not yet convinced me that he is the right guy to both get to the World Cup and get results there.
Happy to discuss further as we head towards this critical showdown with Mexico.
