2021 Yankees Season | Page 188 | Syracusefan.com

2021 Yankees Season

JustPherU said:
There is a 100% chance I’m just rooting for the Yanks to win today and let the chips fall where they may.
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My calculations were initially made for a Jays audience. Someone said they needed a miracle today to advance which I thought was ridiculous hyperbole. So off I went initially and calculated the Jays chances at 43%.

But then I went crazy and figured why stop there and I basically calculated everything. Took me about 45 minutes to calculate and post!
 
JustPherU said:
All we need today is for one of these games to get rained out.
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I refuse to make any calculations for that.
But that would be amazing.
 
JustPherU said:
All we need today is for one of these games to get rained out.
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NYC: partly cloudy, mid 70's.

DC: partly cloudy, mid 80's.

Toronto: has a roof.

Seattle: cloudy, high 50's
 
If there is a 4 way tie.
New York chose to play at Boston.
Rather than at Toronto.
Boston is Team A
Toronto is Team B
New York is Team C
Seattle is Team D.
New York chose Boston as their choice.
New York would be on the road and had a Choice.
Highest among A,B,C would host the wild card game on Tuesday.
 
JustPherU said:
Doesn’t Seattle also have a retractable roof?
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Do we have to adjust for the chances of the roof not working.
As a Montreal Expo fan, and Big Owe sufferer, it was a realistic scenario.
 
jncuse said:
Based on Implied Probabilities from MoneyLine's on today's games. (Copied from post I made on MLB Board but thought some of you may be interested)

There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario
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jncuse said:
And now specifically to the Yankees after today

- 65.4% chance that they clinch a WildCard spot today
a) 49.9% chance that only Boston and New York advance after today. In this Scenario they play at Boston on Tuesday.
b) 16.5% chance that New York is the only team that clinches a wildcard spot today. Multiple Scenarios here
7.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for the Final Wild Card, and New York would host Wednesday.
8.8% chance that there is a 2 way tie for the Final Wild Card, and New York would host Tuesday

- 34.6% chance that they are involved in some sort of playoff
a) 5.9% chance that it is a 4 team mini-tournament played Monday/Tuesday for two wildcard spots
b) 13.9% chance that New York, Seattle and Toronto are tied (in this case New York would play Seattle on Monday and the winner vs Toronto on Tuesday, to play Boston on Wednesday)
c) 3.5% chance of a Boston/New York / Toronto tie for two wildcard spots, whereby they would play the Boston/Toronto Monday Night Loser on Tuesday for a chance to get into the Wednesday Wildcard
d) 2.3% chance of a Boston/New York / Seattle tie for two wildcard spots, whereby New York would play Monday against Boston and if they lose they still get a chance against Seattle on Tuesday to get into the Wednesday Wildcard
e) 4.5% chance they are playing at Toronto on Monday night for a chance at the last wildcard.
) 3.0% chance they are playing at home vs Seattle on Monday night for a chance at the last wildcard.
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jncuse said:
And there is a 100% chance that a sarcastic response is not appreciated!
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I was told there would be no math. (Hey, somebody had to say it.)
 
Tampa was +135 against New York earlier today, and it has now fell to +115.

Tampa will not have to play for a few days so they may want to actually give some work to their better relievers who did not pitch yesterday.
 
Last edited:
jncuse said:
Based on Implied Probabilities from MoneyLine's on today's games. (Copied from post I made on MLB Board but thought some of you may be interested)

There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario
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Based on how this season has gone there is a 100% chance that worst case scenario will happen for the Yankees.
 
None of this would be such a mess for the Yankees if boone had properly managed his bullpen on Thursday and Friday.
 
Last message was for the talk about Boone saying they hope they are not in the situation of choosing
 
JustPherU said:
So all this talk about the Yankees choosing Boston is not true?
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That was a 4 way tie. The decision is already made. 4 way tie. Boston-New York and Toronto-Seattle
In a 3 way tie New York doesn’t know if they will be able to be team B or C it depends on if the 3 way is with Seattle or Toronto.
3 way tie nobody has a clue who would pick what.
 
Alsacs said:
That was a 4 way tie. The decision is already made. 4 way tie. Boston-New York and Toronto-Seattle
In a 3 way tie New York doesn’t know if they will be able to be team B or C it depends on if the 3 way is with Seattle or Toronto.
3 way tie nobody has a clue who would pick what.
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Got ya.
 
Madbiker said:
I think the last time Odor got a hit was in August.
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September 1. But he's only had 16 at bats since then.
 
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