2021 Yankees Season | Page 187 | Syracusefan.com

2021 Yankees Season

This weekend has all the makings of a disaster pitching wise going into the playoffs. Potential game 163 plus the wildcard play off before heading out to the ALDS. But not to get ahead of things. Let’s win today or tomorrow the most important games of the year before next week.
 
Red Sox jump to a 1-0 lead midway thru 4.
Toronto up 10-1 bottom of 6, looking to lock the run differential title.
 
OrangeXtreme said:
And Ken Singleton just retired.

Tomorrow will be his last Yankees broadcast.

"After tomorrow, this one is gone"
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Great farewell from a classy guy. He will be missed.
 
OrangeXtreme said:

Cole for Game #163 or WC.
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Cole seems to be a quirky guy and may not respond well to an expected start on 3 days rest.

I don't think it was an easy choice, but I think it was the right choice in the end for the Yanks.

Boone may have even seeked input from Cole who may have been more honest than other guys in his preference.
 
jncuse said:
Cole seems to be a quirky guy and may not respond well to an expected start on 3 days rest.

I don't think it was an easy choice, but I think it was the right choice in the end for the Yanks.

Boone may have even seeked input from Cole who may have been more honest than other guys in his preference.
Expand...

Sunday isn't an elimination game.

Monday is.

Of course, the WC game is too.
 
Red Sox (W) 91-70 (-)
Yankees (L) 91-70 (-)

Mariners (W) 90-71 (-1.0)
Blue Jays (W) 90-71 (-1.0)
 
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OrangeXtreme said:
Sunday isn't an elimination game.

Monday is.

Of course, the WC game is too.
Expand...

I agree that I would hold Cole for an elimination game when he is properly rested.

That being said that elimination game for the Yankees is not necessarily on Monday - game 163 could be Tuesday in a not too crazy scenario that I outlined in the MLB Thread. (The 3 way tie for two wildcard spots scenario). Boston/Toronto would have their Game 163 on Monday for one wildcard spot, and the loser of that game would play New York on Tuesday for the other wildcard spot.


.
 
Based on Implied Probabilities from MoneyLine's on today's games. (Copied from post I made on MLB Board but thought some of you may be interested)

There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario
 
jncuse said:
Based on Implied Probabilities from MoneyLine's on today's games. (Copied from post I made on MLB Board but thought some of you may be interested)

There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario
Expand...
My head hurts.
 
jncuse said:
Based on Implied Probabilities from MoneyLine's on today's games. (Copied from post I made on MLB Board but thought some of you may be interested)

There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario
Expand...
There is a 100% chance I’m just rooting for the Yanks to win today and let the chips fall where they may.
 
jncuse said:
Based on Implied Probabilities from MoneyLine's on today's games. (Copied from post I made on MLB Board but thought some of you may be interested)

There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario
Expand...

There's a 100% chance that the answers will be revealed to us at 7 PM tonight.
 
And now specifically to the Yankees after today

- 65.4% chance that they clinch a WildCard spot today
a) 49.9% chance that only Boston and New York advance after today. In this Scenario they play at Boston on Tuesday.
b) 16.5% chance that New York is the only team that clinches a wildcard spot today. Multiple Scenarios here
7.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for the Final Wild Card, and New York would host Wednesday.
8.8% chance that there is a 2 way tie for the Final Wild Card, and New York would host Tuesday

- 34.6% chance that they are involved in some sort of playoff
a) 5.9% chance that it is a 4 team mini-tournament played Monday/Tuesday for two wildcard spots
b) 13.9% chance that New York, Seattle and Toronto are tied (in this case New York would play Seattle on Monday and the winner vs Toronto on Tuesday, to play Boston on Wednesday)
c) 3.5% chance of a Boston/New York / Toronto tie for two wildcard spots, whereby they would play the Boston/Toronto Monday Night Loser on Tuesday for a chance to get into the Wednesday Wildcard
d) 2.3% chance of a Boston/New York / Seattle tie for two wildcard spots, whereby New York would play Monday against Boston and if they lose they still get a chance against Seattle on Tuesday to get into the Wednesday Wildcard
e) 4.5% chance they are playing at Toronto on Monday night for a chance at the last wildcard.
f) 3.0% chance they are playing at home vs Seattle on Monday night for a chance at the last wildcard.
 
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