2022 Top 10 Preview

[Zack80]

The Rutgers optimism is starting to go completely off the deep end. No team that lost its entire starting attack of All-American caliber players has ever just come back the next year and been fine. These transfers they brought in are band-aids over a gaping wound. I think Rutgers could finish as a top 8 team again in the near future, but it won't be next year. They're going to max out as a fringe playoff/bubble team in 2022. Mark my words. I think it's way more likely they miss the playoffs entirely than get back to the quarterfinals. It will take a few years minimum to rebuild that type of talent on the offensive end.

The Terps 2017 team lost Rambo, Heacock, and Dylan Maltz and did alright in 2018. I imagine there are other such examples.

Rutgers first midfield line could be stronger with the addition of Bartolo and with Knobloch moving into his sophomore year, along with Sprock.

 

[Zack80]

These IL pieces from the fall, including the coverage from scrimmages, are overwhelming positive for each and ever team. I don't want to call them puff pieces but there is hardly anything negative being said about any team.

I agree with you about Rutgers, I can't imagine trying to replace that attack line. The midfield should be good but I think they also have questions surrounding the face-off. Correct me if I am wrong but it didn't seem like the Big 10 had any standout fogo's last year, and I think Rutgers still struggled. Arceri was near 60% but other than that not many top names come to mind.

It sounds like maybe Bartolo from Penn might be moved to attack? I had thought that all three attackmen would be transfers, but Kinnear mostly talks about returning players. Cameron is not yet on campus as he is finishing up things at UNC. I still don't understand why they ranked their transfer class number 1. UMD seems to have a much stronger unit coming in. I would rather have quality over quantity.

I think the top face-off man for each Big Ten team, except Rutgers, was pretty good. With the Big Ten just playing amongst themselves, these FO men just tended to beat up each other. Rutgers F0 man Dugenio is a good indication that this was true. Dugenio had a .550 FO pct at St.John's as a freshman, but was only .396 last season in the Big Ten.

 

[nyclax]

The Terps 2017 team lost Rambo, Heacock, and Dylan Maltz and did alright in 2018. I imagine there are other such examples.

Rutgers first midfield line could be stronger with the addition of Bartolo and with Knobloch moving into his sophomore year, along with Sprock.

"Did alright." They won the championship the previous year. They took a pretty big step back.

Anyway, not really the same. Maltz was only that team's 5th leading scorer and not really an AA caliber player. They still had Kelly, their 2nd leading scorer, and while he was called a midfielder he never left the field so was basically like having another attackman. So bringing back two of your top 4 scorers is not like losing your top 3 who accounted for a much bigger % of overall team production.

On top of all that, the Terps went from winning the title in 2017 to getting beaten easily by Duke in the quarterfinals the next year. They went down 6-0 in that game, never cut it to less than 3 and lost by 5. So even if the personnel losses were the same as what Rutgers is dealing with now, if anything this example proves what I said. They took a significant step back from 2017 to 2018 after losing Rambo and Heacock. Relative to what Rutgers had, they're losing even more.

 

[Zack80]

"Did alright." They won the championship the previous year. They took a pretty big step back.

Anyway, not really the same. Maltz was only that team's 5th leading scorer and not really an AA caliber player. They still had Kelly, their 2nd leading scorer, and while he was called a midfielder he never left the field so was basically like having another attackman. So bringing back two of your top 4 scorers is not like losing your top 3 who accounted for a much bigger % of overall team production.

On top of all that, the Terps went from winning the title in 2017 to getting beaten easily by Duke in the quarterfinals the next year. They went down 6-0 in that game, never cut it to less than 3 and lost by 5. So even if the personnel losses were the same as what Rutgers is dealing with now, if anything this example proves what I said. They took a significant step back from 2017 to 2018 after losing Rambo and Heacock. Relative to what Rutgers had, they're losing even more.

Making the final four would seem to be doing alright to me. They dropped but not that far.

Of course, Rambo was much bigger than any of Rutgers attackmen - winning the Tewaraaton as I recall. Kieran Mullins was not named an All-American either. While 2 of Rutgers returning midfielders: Sprock and Knobloch were.

Rutgers also returns a 3rd team AA goalie in Colin Kirst. An HM AA defenseman in Jean-Felix, and an HM AA LSM in Ethan Rall.

The bar is lower for Rutgers, all we are talking about is getting back to the NCAA tmt., not repeating as NCAA champion.

 

[nyclax]

They dropped

Yes that's the point. Seems like you agree? Rutgers is going to drop.

The bar is lower for Rutgers, all we are talking about is getting back to the NCAA tmt

Who is we? US Lax Magazine ranked Rutgers #7 in its early 2022 rankings which implies more than just getting back to the NCAA tournament, and I guarantee Inside Lacrosse will put them in a similar place. And the overly optimistic tone that virtually all of these Rutgers articles use does not accurately account for the loss of their entire attack.

 

[wgdsr]

Making the final four would seem to be doing alright to me. They dropped but not that far.

Of course, Rambo was much bigger than any of Rutgers attackmen - winning the Tewaraaton as I recall. Kieran Mullins was not named an All-American either. While 2 of Rutgers returning midfielders: Sprock and Knobloch were.

Rutgers also returns a 3rd team AA goalie in Colin Kirst. An HM AA defenseman in Jean-Felix, and an HM AA LSM in Ethan Rall.

The bar is lower for Rutgers, all we are talking about is getting back to the NCAA tmt., not repeating as NCAA champion.

it is good to have a b1g perspective for debate, but along those lines as said above they'll be in everyone's top 10. and on this site... you can probably get all the action you want on rutgers straight up making the tourney.

6 of 8? at larges automatically are non-b1g teams. they've never had more than 2 at larges, no? and 1 more years than 2? so to get in only they have to be one of 1 (likely?) or 2 non-umd squads from the b1g. so that or take the b1g tourney.

and then probably win another game. you could say now that at this point last year they'd have much longer odds, but that merely suggests the randomness for bubble type squads until proven otherwise.

throw in 2 years of we-don't-really-know-what-the-b1g-is, the losses at attack and top 10 is a stretch.

 

[Zack80]

Yes that's the point. Seems like you agree? Rutgers is going to drop.



Who is we? US Lax Magazine ranked Rutgers #7 in its early 2022 rankings which implies more than just getting back to the NCAA tournament, and I guarantee Inside Lacrosse will put them in a similar place. And the overly optimistic tone that virtually all of these Rutgers articles use does not accurately account for the loss of their entire attack.

I would predict Rutgers to drop, but then again I predicted Rutgers to finish 4th in the Big Ten last season, and they finished 2nd by a good margin.

For me, Inside Lacrosse is not "we", but "them".
My general feeling is that Inside Lacrosse was somewhat prejudiced against Big Ten last season. For example, the number of Big Ten players that were not with Maryland was 3 on IL's media All-American team: Charalambides, Colin Kirst, and Ryan Terefenko (all HM).

 

[Zack80]

throw in 2 years of we-don't-really-know-what-the-b1g-is, the losses at attack and top 10 is a stretch.

Maryland, UVa and Duke would be my top 3. UNC will probably be top 10, but they have to rebuild the midfield. I am not as high on ND as others, but they will probably be top 10. Georgetown looks top 10. That is 6.
After that it gets tough. The Ivy League did not play at all last year - where-are-the-Ivies-at? Yale? Loyola, Denver, Syracuse?
What are your next 4?

 

[Powellfan]

Two more Fall Access reports by IL, for Harvard and Navy. Not sure why Harvard is considered the most compelling team in college lacrosse, and the article doesn't really explain.

Fall All-Access: Picking Up the Pace at Navy

(Inside Lacrosse Photo: Patrick McEwen)It’s hard to imagine anyone at the U.S. Naval Academy having more fun than goalie Gabe Craven on

www.insidelacrosse.com

Fall All-Access: Is Any Team More Compelling Than Harvard?

(Inside Lacrosse Photos: Patrick McEwen)Prior to scrimmaging High Point and Richmond last Sunday, Harvard completed the last practice of

www.insidelacrosse.com

 

[Powellfan]

 

[nyclax]

Calling UNC's attack "elite" is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. UVA's is elite with two, possibly three All-Americans. Maryland's was elite last year with Bernhardt and Wisnauskas and might be again this year with Wisnauskas, Khan, and the rest. Duke's was close with Sowers, Robertson, and O'Neill even if they didn't totally live up to the billing. But UNC has one very elite guy and then two...pretty good ones. Kelly and Solomon are solid players but I see them both as "just another guy," especially in a conference as talented as the ACC. Maybe I'm underrating them. In that offense, playing with Gray, I feel like a lot of kids would be able to put up the same point totals that those two do. I'm not sure that Gray's presence alone is enough for the entire unit to rise to the level of "elite" but then again Inside Lacrosse just loves to dole out superlatives.

Very interesting team, though. Talented but lose so much from the midfield. Basically the Rutgers problem except instead of the entire attack it's the entire first midfield. Middies may be a bit easier to replace, especially with the talent UNC has waiting in the wings, but I wouldn't discount how important that unit was to the Heels last year especially in the playoffs. They have some big, athletic freshmen but no one who shoots it from range like Perry could or who is as crafty and versatile as Cook was. And then you had the experience and leadership of an Anderson. They each brought a little something special individually and as a whole will be impossible to replicate.

 

[wgdsr]

Maryland, UVa and Duke would be my top 3. UNC will probably be top 10, but they have to rebuild the midfield. I am not as high on ND as others, but they will probably be top 10. Georgetown looks top 10. That is 6.
After that it gets tough. The Ivy League did not play at all last year - where-are-the-Ivies-at? Yale? Loyola, Denver, Syracuse?
What are your next 4?

sorry, just seeing this. i'd certainly put that 6 in the top ten, probably squeeze yale and loyola in between some of them. with 2 left i'd rank denver and either penn or cornell.
the ivies' abbreviated 2020 was much better than the b1g teams outside of psu. who has since fallen off, creating a void where someone had to be #2.
i see rutgers' year as much more of a one-off, especially with their losses at attack and weakness at fogo, conference foes. see them more like the 2019/2020 versions.

i do think there's a good chance a 2nd b1g team will finish in or near the top 10, but no idea who it'll be. give hopkins a better chance than rutgers with almost everyone back and some new blood. ohio state also.

next/other top teams after ten in no particular order - princeton, syracuse, army, and either drexel or delaware, thinking delaware may have the edge.

 

[Zack80]

sorry, just seeing this. i'd certainly put that 6 in the top ten, probably squeeze yale and loyola in between some of them. with 2 left i'd rank denver and either penn or cornell.
the ivies' abbreviated 2020 was much better than the b1g teams outside of psu. who has since fallen off, creating a void where someone had to be #2.
i see rutgers' year as much more of a one-off, especially with their losses at attack and weakness at fogo, conference foes. see them more like the 2019/2020 versions.

i do think there's a good chance a 2nd b1g team will finish in or near the top 10, but no idea who it'll be. give hopkins a better chance than rutgers with almost everyone back and some new blood. ohio state also.

next/other top teams after ten in no particular order - princeton, syracuse, army, and either drexel or delaware, thinking delaware may have the edge.

I find it hard to know where the Ivy League will be. They didn't play last year, and their younger players didn't gain any experience.

That is part of my problem with barring Rutgers from the top 10. There just isn't this body of 4 or so other teams that I feel will be particularly strong about to bar them.
This gets even stronger for barring Rutgers from the NCAA tmt, where perhaps the top 12 will make it. I don't have that group of 6 or so teams that I feel will be particular strong about to bar them. Looking at it another way, probably at least 2 teams will make it from the Big 10, Maryland looks good for one, but 2nd place in the Big Ten is up for grabs.

I tend to favor Hopkins for 2nd in the Big Ten also. Michigan gets almost everyone who made a major contribution back also. You feel like you are playing "cry wolf" with Michigan though.
I don't really see where the offense is coming from for OSU. Jack Myers is certainly a top attackman, and Jackson Reid is very good, after that I don't really know. The same is pretty much true where TJ Malone is good attackman, but after that things get a little short. I guess the hope for PSU might be that the freshman Will Peden will come in and run the offense - and get other players like Jack Kelly involved better.

I'd probably go with Yale and Loyola in my top 10. I don't know about Denver as I think they lost their 2 leading scorers in Morrill and Walker. No Teat at Cornell.

 

[Powellfan]

Calling UNC's attack "elite" is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. UVA's is elite with two, possibly three All-Americans. Maryland's was elite last year with Bernhardt and Wisnauskas and might be again this year with Wisnauskas, Khan, and the rest. Duke's was close with Sowers, Robertson, and O'Neill even if they didn't totally live up to the billing. But UNC has one very elite guy and then two...pretty good ones. Kelly and Solomon are solid players but I see them both as "just another guy," especially in a conference as talented as the ACC. Maybe I'm underrating them. In that offense, playing with Gray, I feel like a lot of kids would be able to put up the same point totals that those two do. I'm not sure that Gray's presence alone is enough for the entire unit to rise to the level of "elite" but then again Inside Lacrosse just loves to dole out superlatives.

Very interesting team, though. Talented but lose so much from the midfield. Basically the Rutgers problem except instead of the entire attack it's the entire first midfield. Middies may be a bit easier to replace, especially with the talent UNC has waiting in the wings, but I wouldn't discount how important that unit was to the Heels last year especially in the playoffs. They have some big, athletic freshmen but no one who shoots it from range like Perry could or who is as crafty and versatile as Cook was. And then you had the experience and leadership of an Anderson. They each brought a little something special individually and as a whole will be impossible to replicate.

Yea, they clearly have an elite attackman in Gray, but the other two guys don't make them an elite unit. I think UVA is clearly the best unit in the conference, and probably the country if Moore, Shellenberger and Cormier stay together. Duke is probably right behind them. I know they didn't look like what everyone expected last year, but like Ivorytower point out, Lulley might fit the team better than Sowers did. I imagine O'Neill will improve and Robinson is probably one of the most underrated players in the country.

After those two, I actually think the other teams in the conference are pretty close together. Notre Dame and UNC clearly have elite players in Kavanaugh and Gray, but their supporting cast is either unknown or just "pretty good". Syracuse doesn't have an elite talent to match up with Kavanaugh or Gray, but If Dordevic move to attack, I think that gives them two very good players along with Hiltz, and Seebold showed definite flashes last year. We shall see. The wild cards will be freshmen and if anyone "breaks out". Will Kavanaugh's brother be a carbon copy? That could be frightening, especially for SU fans. Tillman for UNC seems like a player to watch - they might move him to middie but I thought he was moved to attack late in the year? They also have a couple of freshmen who sound like they could be impact players.

 

[Zack80]

It's Duke's turn today on IL:

Fall All-Access: Figuring Out Duke's Offense

(Inside Lacrosse Photos: Terry Foy)Last year, the Duke Blue Devils were unequivocally the most interesting team in the fall. They added the

www.insidelacrosse.com

Foy - "Last year, the Duke Blue Devils were unequivocally the most interesting team in the fall."

The article implies that Duke is going with an attack of Robertson, O'Neill, and Williams at the moment. Having the two lefties, neither of whom is a natural feeder, seems a little akin to UMd playing Rambo and Heacock together in 2017.

 

[Powellfan]

It's Duke's turn today on IL:

Fall All-Access: Figuring Out Duke's Offense

(Inside Lacrosse Photos: Terry Foy)Last year, the Duke Blue Devils were unequivocally the most interesting team in the fall. They added the

www.insidelacrosse.com

Foy - "Last year, the Duke Blue Devils were unequivocally the most interesting team in the fall."

The article implies that Duke is going with an attack of Robertson, O'Neill, and Williams at the moment. Having the two lefties, neither of whom is a natural feeder, seems a little akin to UMd playing Rambo and Heacock together in 2017.

I’d be really surprised if they stuck with that trio. They tried it last year with Sowers instead of Robinson and it looked really disjointed. I guess it could work if Williams played the crease, but that means they are expecting Robinson to be the quarterback. I’m guessing they are just bringing Lulley along slowly.

 

[Zack80]

I’d be really surprised if they stuck with that trio. They tried it last year with Sowers instead of Robinson and it looked really disjointed. I guess it could work if Williams played the crease, but that means they are expecting Robinson to be the quarterback. I’m guessing they are just bringing Lulley along slowly.

Probably so. Although it has the plus of keeping Williams on the field at all times and near the goal (that sounds like 60+ points to me). I think you set up the offense with O'Neill behind the goal. A big thing would be Williams and O'Neill developing a lot of chemistry for the 2 man game. Another, is whether O'Neill is ready to take that step forward as a passer and a guy with the ball in his stick. For example Rambo's assist numbers at UMd: 6, 19, 32, then 45. O'Neill would have to be ready to do the 20+ assists as a sophomore. Comparing with the 2017 Terps, Robertson is probably a little more versatile than Dylan Maltz.
Montgomery was actually 2nd on the team in assists last year (22). Maybe you run Lulley on the midfield and invert him on short sticks. Then you finish off the midfield with McAdorey or Caputo.

 

[Zack80]

The first thing I would say is that the bottom of the top 10 doesn't look that strong to me at the moment.

It's fairly clear that Hopkins has top 10 talent. Will they play that well is a question mark. Epstein was the top attack recruit in his class. DeSimone was a top 10 recruits, struggled as a midfielder for 3 years, but finally started to blossom as an attackman last season. Grimes was top 5 recruit and McDermott was a 5-star recruit - both were getting their feet wet last year. Hopkins also had a 5 star defenseman in last year's class.

Michigan is quite a bit of talent also. Zawada and Boehm were 5 - star recruits. Clay and Bonomi were both UA AA. They bring in a 5-star midfielder in Mulholland along with 2 4-star attackmen (Cohen and Hertzberg). A 5-star defenseman in Ryan Schriber

Michigan's Bryce Clay is out with an ACL injury

Michigan Attackman Bryce Clay To Miss 2022 Season Due to ACL Injury

(Inside Lacrosse Photos: Michael Costello)Michigan attackman Bryce Clay tore his ACL in fall practice and will miss the 2022 season,

www.insidelacrosse.com

Another one of those injuries that sets Michigan back.
Michigan might go with freshman lefty Graham Hertzberg there. Freshman Ryan Cohen is another possibility, although he is more of a feeder type.

 

[Zack80]

After having 8 UA AAs, Breschi adds another talented player to his 2021 class:

Phillylacrosse Co-Player of Year Pierce commits to UNC; is eligible to play in Spring season - PhillyLacrosse.com

By Chris GoldbergPhillylacrosse.com, Posted 11/19/21 Defenseman Grant Pierce, the Phillylacrosse.com Co-Player of the Year who led Radnor to the PIAA

phillylacrosse.com

Where does Breschi get all the scholarship money? I guess a lot of these guys are paying much of their own way.

 

[ivorytower]

After having 8 UA AAs, Breschi adds another talented player to his 2021 class:

Phillylacrosse Co-Player of Year Pierce commits to UNC; is eligible to play in Spring season - PhillyLacrosse.com

By Chris GoldbergPhillylacrosse.com, Posted 11/19/21 Defenseman Grant Pierce, the Phillylacrosse.com Co-Player of the Year who led Radnor to the PIAA

phillylacrosse.com

Where does Breschi get all the scholarship money? I guess a lot of these guys are paying much of their own way.

ComeFundSportAdvantages.com

 

[Powellfan]