Good article on the ACC bowl situation.
In short, all the ACC bowl teams get to move up a slot if FSU wins. UL ends up in the Orange and another B1G team is their opponent.
That appears to be our only change to get anywhere except Boston or Tampa.
The good news is it seems likely to happen.
Here are the latest bowl projections for Virginia Tech after the Hokies became bowl eligible.
roanoke.com
For this season in particular, there is one scenario that would be ideal for the ACC to maximize its bowl slots. It begins with the CFP. First, Florida State needs to win the ACC title, be in the top four of the committee’s ranking and secure one of two semifinal berths. Second, Louisville is the highest-rated ACC team and heads to the Orange Bowl. Third, the Orange Bowl opponent needs to be a team from the Big Ten (think Ohio State or Penn State).
If those three things unfold, that opens the door for the ACC to get a team into the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl). The only way an ACC team gets into the ReliaQuest Bowl is if a Big Ten team gets into the Orange Bowl. (It is currently contracted for an SEC-Big Ten showdown.)
Why is that important? Notre Dame is factored into the ACC’s bowl slot this year because of not being in the CFP or NY6. That means the ReliaQuest Bowl would be ideal for the Fighting Irish and not slide the ACC teams down the pecking order.
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Where will the Hokies end up?
The Hokies’ destination will depend on the outcome of Saturday’s ACC championship game. If Florida State loses and falls enough in the CFP rankings to not get an at-large into the NY6, then the dominos will likely guarantee Tech heads to the Military Bowl for the third time and first since 2018. The previously mentioned ideal scenario could open up other possibilities, such as the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
As of today, just about everyone has UL playing Ohio State in the Orange, so it looks likely the best case scenario for the ACC bowl teams will happen. That moves VT up to a better bowl (probably the Mayo) and Syracuse could possibly get into the Military).