2023 Bracketology
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fieldystick
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Happy to answer questions if anyone has them, but I think most here already have a good sense of what Cuse needs.
@zack, I included the full order with AQs reinserted at the bottom as a comprise for now. I thought about it quite a bit and still felt like reducing clutter/not confusing people for now was the better move but that I did need to include it in some way for people like you who were curious.
st bonny's was unexpected. they were 11 and 4 last year (lighter schedule). holy cross is a death knell when you combine the 2.
hopkins and/or umd. both have the same impact, win or lose. terps actually greater because i think they play fewer games.
acc will matter in a couple of ways. you want the teams you beat (if any) to do the winning. as a best case scenario, or most plausible to get a shot, may be winning 2... @ that point cuse is somewhere on the bubble. your own rpi isn't everything anymore after last year. so you want your wins to be the best they can be. means u have to cheer for everyone but nd (until cuse may lose to one of the other 3). plus, nd, duke and uva are sitting so high on the rpi tree in gap down to 4+, having unc steal a game vs them probably helps, too.
fieldystick
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Only issue that I can see with this might be if it comes down for Syracuse and UNC for the last spot, I think UNC upsetting one of the trio would flip it in their favor.
Head to head - split, indecisive
Syracuse would have 1 top 5 win, UNC would have 1 top 5 win and an additional top 5/10 win with Hopkins.
But, I think, more than likely, both UNC and Syracuse would be in the field.
thought about that, but my guess was all 5 in. and unc staying in top 10 even with a cuse loss. cuse top 5 or 10 sos, 2 top 5/10 wins, anywhere from 7/8 to 15 rpi.
anything could happen, but i don't see 4 ivy/b1g/patriot/big east resumes in that event.
FloridaCuse
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Great. Thanks very much for the clarification. I appreciate it.
Powellfan
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Even with a victory at Princeton, Syracuse doesn’t have much of a resume to speak of. It finishes with a neutral-site game against North Carolina and trips to Virginia and Duke. The Orange needs to win at least one and probably two of those games to maintain any sort of at-large hopes.
Albany, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. North Carolina
Albany, N.Y.
(5) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant
(4) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army
Annapolis, Md.
(3) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Penn State vs. Denver
Annapolis, Md.
(7) IVY/Cornell vs. Rutgers
(2) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware
Last three included: North Carolina, Denver, Rutgers
First three on the outside: Yale, Loyola, Michigan
Moving in: Denver, Rutgers, Saint Joseph’s
Moving out: Loyola, UMass, Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)
Albany, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. North Carolina
Albany, N.Y.
(5) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant
(4) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army
Annapolis, Md.
(3) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Penn State vs. Denver
Annapolis, Md.
(7) IVY/Cornell vs. Rutgers
(2) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware
Last three included: North Carolina, Denver, Rutgers
First three on the outside: Yale, Loyola, Michigan
Moving in: Denver, Rutgers, Saint Joseph’s
Moving out: Loyola, UMass, Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)
Shrmdougluvr
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It would help if Hobart, Albany, and Vermont won some games. Hobart has Richmond, UMass, and St. Joes. Albany has yale and Penn. I assume wins in any of those games also helps Cuse.
nyclax
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it is what it is. seems like orange probably have to win all three. an RPI of 19 won't cut it.
the silver lining is winning all three gives them a very good chance. 10-5 with wins over unc, duke, and uva would be hard to deny. but doesn't seem like 2/3 is going to get them there
the silver lining is winning all three gives them a very good chance. 10-5 with wins over unc, duke, and uva would be hard to deny. but doesn't seem like 2/3 is going to get them there
Weird because UNC has beat Hopkins and SU then all weak teams. Oh they beat Brown which Brown was without 6 players. If SU beats UNC and say Duke they will have Princeton, UNC and Duke which seem like better wins then what UNC has yet there in as of now most likely. That's confusing to me.
fieldystick
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Probabilistic simulation, forcing 3 results, presents a deterministic conclusion.
Let's cross this bridge if we come to it.
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fieldystick
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I could say a lot about this, but it's not worth sitting here typing pages and page of what-ifs and math-y stuff about this scenario before it actually happens.
So, I'll say for now: I endorse the above, minus the disclaimer about Brown because that part doesn't matter.
I know ur right it doesn't matter who was missing it's just as an SU fan knowing they were missing guys it's like cmonn. Lol
Zack80
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I think UNC probably needs to win one of their 2 games against Notre Dame to be in.
here, to me, is a semi-major sticking point or 2 for 'cuse.
- they have not just acc teams but hop/md playing one another. so a normal-conference full slate for the opponents' record that gets dinged @ .500. they're not gonna benefit unless umd/hop reach the b1g finals after a win or 2 each.
- more importantly... we know holy cross hurts. but holy cross has 3 games left on their slate. those are against teams that are a combined 3 and 27!!! if they ohfer, their opponents' record will continue to be a drag of course, but hc's opponents' record (and cuse's opp/opp), which has kept the saders above water so far, is about to take a massive hit and take that opp/opp component for cuse down with them.
hypothetical: hc wins 3 games, and their record jumps from .000 to .231 on cuse's formula. fyi, that is multiples better w/regard to cuse (and other hc opponents) than a 3 game win streak would help almost any other opponent's record, save st bonnies. like 3-4-almost 5x. (if a team that's 8 and 3 wins 3 games it doesn't change % nearly as much). 2 or 3 hc wins would nullify the huge drag on opp/opp record that hc will have in a couple weeks. if they bagel... it will be a killer. 'cuse fans need to be yuge crusader fans.
also fyi, had holy cross gone say, 4 and 7 to date, minus the slight other movements, they'd be sitting at 19/20 rpi right now in a vacuum/other patriots that beat them benefitting. had bonnies done the same, cuse'd be at about 16 today.
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DoctahLexus
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I think we find a way in winning 2 out of 3. Dont want to get in the weeds with all this stuff, but I think that will be enough.
OrangeXtreme
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Grabberorang
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Shrmdougluvr
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It's odd that Holy Cross and St. Bonaventure can seemingly drag Syracuse down, but Yale can get annihilated by Cornell and Princeton and it has no impact. It's also odd that Syracuse can simultaneously have the 5th hardest schedule while being dragged down by its opponents winning percentage.
PhatOrange
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the selection criteria is a bit more than the rpi. I don’t really know how much weight is given to each criteria but everyone can see that Syracuse is better than or would beat many teams in the top 20. I don’t think Yale for example would get in over Syracuse as an at large going by the eyeball test. Certainly going to be a great final couple of weeks of lacrosse.
Friday nights Albany Yale tilt should be fun.
Friday nights Albany Yale tilt should be fun.
Yale has top 10 RPI. They have a good shot at winning the next 2.
Not sure if 3-3 gets them into the IVY tourney. The way they league is going it could be a 4 way 3-3 tie for the last couple of spots.
ARMY is a team that no one really wants to play but they pretty much have to win now to have a shot.
OSU/Penn/Princ/Mich are all teams on the edge of being under .500 which helps SU as well. if Mich loses to PSU and OSU then both are under .500 going to the B10 playoffs.
UAlbany could really help SU as they play both Yale and Penn and then root for Cornell to run the table and win the IVY and it might become a one 1 bid league.
Not sure if 3-3 gets them into the IVY tourney. The way they league is going it could be a 4 way 3-3 tie for the last couple of spots.
ARMY is a team that no one really wants to play but they pretty much have to win now to have a shot.
OSU/Penn/Princ/Mich are all teams on the edge of being under .500 which helps SU as well. if Mich loses to PSU and OSU then both are under .500 going to the B10 playoffs.
UAlbany could really help SU as they play both Yale and Penn and then root for Cornell to run the table and win the IVY and it might become a one 1 bid league.
orange79
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