2023 Bracketology

[fieldystick]

Yea i think they win 2 out of last 3 their most def discussion. But depending how other teams do or fall could be out or in base on that. If they were to win all 3 they are surely in no doubt in my mind. Would help also if vermont can start getting some wins n move into ranks at end. But cuse def have to win 2 of next 3 to have shot.

I personally think Syracuse is a lock if they win 2 of their last 3.

 

[Powellfan]

Interesting post from Foy. Seems crazy to me that the Big 10 could get all six teams in. Why are their RPI’s so high? Michigan and Penn State have both lost to Marquette. Rutgers to Army. Ohio State to Cornell and Denver (though they did best UNC). Maryland to Loyola. I guess Maryland’s win over Virginia is carrying the day? I know the conference is good but I don’t think it’s THAT good.

 

[fieldystick]

Interesting post from Foy. Seems crazy to me that the Big 10 could get all six teams in. Why are their RPI’s so high? Michigan and Penn State have both lost to Marquette. Rutgers to Army. Ohio State to Cornell and Denver (though they did best UNC). Maryland to Loyola. I guess Maryland’s win over Virginia is carrying the day? I know the conference is good but I don’t think it’s THAT good.

The Big Ten is the clear second conference behind the ACC. But the Big Ten also will not get 6 bids. I think anywhere from 3-5 is realistic, but 5 requires someone outside of the top trio to win the AQ.

Rutgers, Michigan, and Ohio State have real issues with their cases for at-larges, and they will be mutually exclusive to solve them. Michigan and OSU have .500 problems, for example. Both need two wins in their next two games to have a realistic shot at finishing .500 or above. And guess what... they have to play each other.

I'm also 99% sure that he's wrong about all these teams having at least 3 top 20 wins, unless my data is wrong, which is a problem because I'm basically done with tomorrow's post.

OSU wins: 8 UNCCH 12 RU
UM win: 6 UMCP

 

[Zack80]

The Big Ten is the clear second conference behind the ACC. But the Big Ten also will not get 6 bids. I think anywhere from 3-5 is realistic, but 5 requires someone outside of the top trio to win the AQ.

Rutgers, Michigan, and Ohio State have real issues with their cases for at-larges, and they will be mutually exclusive to solve them. Michigan and OSU have .500 problems, for example. Both need two wins in their next two games to have a realistic shot at finishing .500 or above. And guess what... they have to play each other.

I'm also 99% sure that he's wrong about all these teams having at least 3 top 20 wins, unless my data is wrong, which is a problem because I'm basically done with tomorrow's post.

OSU wins: 8 UNCCH 12 RU
UM win: 6 UMCP

No, MIchigan is 5-5 and only needs to win 1 over their next 2 games to be .500, then they need to win their first Big Ten tmt game to stay at .500 or above.

Rutgers does have 4 top 20 wins but some are rather borderline:
#14 Utah, #16 Michigan, #18 UMass, #20 Loyola - and could fall out. They might need a top 10 win.

I think you could draw out a scenario where all the Big Ten teams look pretty good,
Michigan goes 1-1, beating PSU and losing to OSU, and then wins a game in the Big Ten tmt, to get them to .500 with 3 top 20 RPI wins including UMd.
Rutgers knocks off PSU or UMd to give them a top 10 win to go with its other top 20 wins
OSU wins its last 2 games (Hopkins and Michigan) to go 7-6, with 4 top 20 wins.
Of course, one of the top 3 (UMd, JHU, or PSU) would have to go 0-2 here, which might well knock them out of the top 10 RPIs - but there would be Big Ten tmt games to consider.
- I don't really expect OSU to be able to win at JHU, but this season has been rather strange. Michigan does have PSU at home - still I'd favor PSU.

 

[PhatOrange]

So much of this is crazy to me. Why are some of these rpis so high and what data points are they using? And the whole top 20 win thing is a joke. Half of the teams should not be ranked and are only ranked because they have weak schedules. There’s 3 teams ranked with 4 losses and 3 teams ranked with 5 losses. That’s absurd and they count as top 20 wins

 

[fieldystick]

No, MIchigan is 5-5 and only needs to win 1 over their next 2 games to be .500, then they need to win their first Big Ten tmt game to stay at .500 or above.

Correct about UM re .500.

My personal opinion is Michigan's goose is basically cooked if they don't win both, though. Would take a big run in Big Ten tournament from 1-1. Same boat as OSU with one fewer loss. Michigan was the least equipped of these bottom 3 in the Big Ten to make an at-large run before the Maryland game. They still have a ton of work left to do.

Rutgers winning on Friday night put them in a position where they probably only need one of Maryland/PSU to get in, but those are still likely uphill battles.

I still think 3 for the Big Ten is more likely than 5. You're going to be painting a very narrow path to find 6 for the Big Ten.

 

[fieldystick]

So much of this is crazy to me. Why are some of these rpis so high and what data points are they using? And the whole top 20 win thing is a joke. Half of the teams should not be ranked and are only ranked because they have weak schedules. There’s 3 teams ranked with 4 losses and 3 teams ranked with 5 losses. That’s absurd and they count as top 20 wins

RPI is a mathematical formula. I sometimes calculate a team's myself when I'm curious about one. Team X Y or Zed is so high because that is what the three column calculation spit out.

 

[PhatOrange]

RPI is a mathematical formula. I sometimes calculate a team's myself when I'm curious about one. Team X Y or Zed is so high because that is what the three column calculation spit out.

Right but what’s the formula?

 

[fieldystick]

Right but what’s the formula?

25% own team winning % (your own W-L)

50% opponents' winning %

25% opponents' opponents' winning %

The last column is the hardest and most time consuming to calculate and also the least impactful on the overall RPI.

Click below to see how it is all broken down.

 

[cuselaxss26]

So our out of conference games hurt us? Mean find confusing that utah and jax and even bryant has better rpi then us. But guess since holly cross st bonnies and hofstra combine for 3–4 wins that’s not helping.

 

[cuselaxss26]

So have total cake puff teams on schedule really does nothing?

 

[fieldystick]

So our out of conference games hurt us? Mean find confusing that utah and jax and even bryant has better rpi then us. But guess since holly cross st bonnies and hofstra combine for 3–4 wins that’s not helping.

Nailed it. They are actively hurting you.

I played around with Cuse’s calcs in particular a few weeks ago because I was curious.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Nailed it. They are actively hurting you.

I played around with Cuse’s calcs in particular a few weeks ago because I was curious.

Yea i stated before should get rid of holy cross st bonnies off and add better teams like a nova maby st joes jax or high point teams like that. But i also feel for teams like holy cross and st bonnies as if not playing these powers won’t get really any Recognition or thoughts and believe ultimately should be to grow the game. These games that big schools play smaller really helps small schools not just for their players feeling like on big stage but sure kids would love to play these big schools if can’t play at them. I of course am dreaming of perfect world where all teams can compete and all schools have chances. Realistically isn’t so. But if small schools just play small schools never get the experience of playing these powerhouses to help them improve and become better. I don’t know. Maby need whole new rpi system or be redone.

 

[FloridaCuse]

But I thought there was something about only taking into account in the opposition calculation the ten highest teams that you play? If so, wouldn't that eliminate the playing Holy Cross, St. Bonny, etc. effect? And as we play our last 3 games eliminate the bottom 3? Or am I missing something?

 

[Zack80]

Correct about UM re .500.

My personal opinion is Michigan's goose is basically cooked if they don't win both, though. Would take a big run in Big Ten tournament from 1-1. Same boat as OSU with one fewer loss. Michigan was the least equipped of these bottom 3 in the Big Ten to make an at-large run before the Maryland game. They still have a ton of work left to do.

Rutgers winning on Friday night put them in a position where they probably only need one of Maryland/PSU to get in, but those are still likely uphill battles.

I still think 3 for the Big Ten is more likely than 5. You're going to be painting a very narrow path to find 6 for the Big Ten.

It might depend a lot on which 1 Michigan wins though, along other unknowns. A win over PSU could give Michigan a 2nd top 10 win to go with Maryland. If you add in, Maryland finishing strong and staying in the top 5, then you have a strong pair of victories. Then there would be an unknown win in the first round of the Big Ten tmt. It is fair to also note that Harvard's win over Cornell has moved Harvard to #23 in the RPI lists. Michigan does have a bad loss to Marquette, but their other losses UVA, ND, JHU, and Rutgers are not bad.
On the other hand, a win over OSU for the 1 win would not look as good for Michigan.

Lots of contingencies.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Interesting post from Foy. Seems crazy to me that the Big 10 could get all six teams in. Why are their RPI’s so high? Michigan and Penn State have both lost to Marquette. Rutgers to Army. Ohio State to Cornell and Denver (though they did best UNC). Maryland to Loyola. I guess Maryland’s win over Virginia is carrying the day? I know the conference is good but I don’t think it’s THAT good.

Foys delusional I don't care what their RPIs are there's 0 chance the B10 gets six teams in. Michigan and Ohio State may not even be .500 once the season ends. Ohio State plays Hopkins and then Michigan to end the season and Michigan has Penn State and Ohio State. The only lock B10s at this point are Maryland and Penn State. B10 is going to continue to beat each other up and the early conf tourney losers will be bubble out. If Mich and OSU do go on runs it will likely be at the expense of Rutty or Hop, Rutty has Maryland and Penn State to close out the year and their OOC is putrid.

 

[PhatOrange]

25% own team winning % (your own W-L)

50% opponents' winning %

25% opponents' opponents' winning %

The last column is the hardest and most time consuming to calculate and also the least impactful on the overall RPI.

Click below to see how it is all broken down.

How much sense does it make that Utah's RPI is so high? Wins over Marquette, Bellarmine, Detroit Mercy, Air Force, Jacksonville and Robert Morris. Yawn.

GTown has a top 10 RPI with wins over Princeton, Richmond, High Point, Lehigh, Denver, Providence.

 

[Hoo's That]

Different way of looking at things. Kind of interesting that so many Ivy League teams are included in the work to do category. Surprised that so many are in discussion at this point. Obviously SU has work to do. I agree with those who say they need to win two of their last three. If they do that I think they have a good shot. Easier said than done of course.

The "work to do" may mean "win the Ivy tournament" because it's hard to see how 2 get in if Cornell doesn't convincingly win the regular season (by, say, winning out) and then lose in the tournament. IMO, if there's a bunch within a game at the top, then just the tournament winner gets in.

 

[wgdsr]

How much sense does it make that Utah's RPI is so high? Wins over Marquette, Bellarmine, Detroit Mercy, Air Force, Jacksonville and Robert Morris. Yawn.

GTown has a top 10 RPI with wins over Princeton, Richmond, High Point, Lehigh, Denver, Providence.

your own rpi doesn't care who you beat. you don't get more credit for beating hopkins and losing to jax vs. vice versa.

if you go 10 and 5 by beating 10 okay teams with decent opponents' record, and lose to 5 of the top 8 rpi, all of whom have great records and great opponents' records, you'll have a good to very good rpi. whether you beat 1 or 2 of the latter, and lose to the same # of okay teams instead means nothing for your own rpi.

 

[wgdsr]

So have total cake puff teams on schedule really does nothing?

the only benefit is to get guaranteed w's on the ledger and help make sure you can get .500 or better to be in consideration. the drawback is if one or several is catastrophically bad, it crushes your rpi, and cancels out multiple good opponents on your ledger.

 

[orange79]

How much sense does it make that Utah's RPI is so high? Wins over Marquette, Bellarmine, Detroit Mercy, Air Force, Jacksonville and Robert Morris. Yawn.

GTown has a top 10 RPI with wins over Princeton, Richmond, High Point, Lehigh, Denver, Providence.

your own rpi doesn't care who you beat. you don't get more credit for beating hopkins and losing to jax vs. vice versa.

if you go 10 and 5 by beating 10 okay teams with decent opponents' record, and lose to 5 of the top 8 rpi, all of whom have great records and great opponents' records, you'll have a good to very good rpi. whether you beat 1 or 2 of the latter, and lose to the same # of okay teams instead means nothing for your own rpi.

Good examples of why the NCAA hoops committees (men's and women's) went away from RPI and tried to create something a bit better which took other things into consideration (NET rankings).

 

[PhatOrange]

the only benefit is to get guaranteed w's on the ledger and help make sure you can get .500 or better to be in consideration. the drawback is if one or several is catastrophically bad, it crushes your rpi, and cancels out multiple good opponents on your ledger.

Syracuse sort of gets bit by this right now. I doubt anybody thought Vermont (6-4), Albany (3-6), Hobart (5-5) and Hofstra (3-8) would be so marginal this season.

I wonder how our numbers change as the above teams still have opportunities for good wins.

Vermont > - Bryant (8-2), UMBC (7-3)
Albany > Yale, Penn, Binghamton (7-3)
Hofstra gets Drexel (7-3) and Stony Brook (6-5)
Hobart gets St Joes (7-4), Richmond (6-4) and UMass (6-4)

 

[wgdsr]

Syracuse sort of gets bit by this right now. I doubt anybody thought Vermont (6-4), Albany (3-6), Hobart (5-5) and Hofstra (3-8) would be so marginal this season.

I wonder how our numbers change as the above teams still have opportunities for good wins.

Vermont > - Bryant (8-2), UMBC (7-3)
Albany > Yale, Penn, Binghamton (7-3)
Hofstra gets Drexel (7-3) and Stony Brook (6-5)
Hobart gets St Joes (7-4), Richmond (6-4) and UMass (6-4)

at least those opponents all have a good slate of upcoming games. some wins would help.

the killer is st bonny's. they were 11 and 4 last year, and have won 1 game this year. that drift has to be unexpected, even tho they are in a new league?

the continued scheduling of holy cross is inexcusable. i posted about taking them on as a bad idea in 2021, and some didn't like my take. had they not been re-added in replacement for somebody that dropped last minute, they likely wouldn't be murdering cuse's rpi this year. still, 2 wins is going to get 'cuse in the conversation probably.

they've had a lot of swings this year @ top teams. they need to connect on a couple.

 

[wgdsr]

But I thought there was something about only taking into account in the opposition calculation the ten highest teams that you play? If so, wouldn't that eliminate the playing Holy Cross, St. Bonny, etc. effect? And as we play our last 3 games eliminate the bottom 3? Or am I missing something?

that is for the strength of schedule rankings that they consider. so cuse's sos is gonna keep jumping. it's already gone from mid/high 20's to 10 or 13 depending on where you look it up just in the last game or 2. it'll be top 10 and maybe top 5.

 

[nyclax]

How much sense does it make that Utah's RPI is so high? Wins over Marquette, Bellarmine, Detroit Mercy, Air Force, Jacksonville and Robert Morris. Yawn.

GTown has a top 10 RPI with wins over Princeton, Richmond, High Point, Lehigh, Denver, Providence.

the remainder of utah's schedule is going to drop them like an anchor. they won't finish in the top 20

had syracuse played cornell or army instead of st. bonaventure they'd be in much better shape right now

orange need to win 2 of 3 and root for hopkins in the big ten. the better the blue jays do the better it will be for cuse RPI. the ACC will be a wash so it doesnt really matter a whole lot in terms of cuse's RPI which ACC teams win/lose from here on out but hopkins is a chance for them to gain some ground. vermont winning the AE would also help