2023 Bracketology

[JeremyCuse]

Loyola does have those early season wins over UMd and JHU. While Loyola hasn't been playing too well of late, if they were to turn things around and beat Georgetown tomorrow night, that would give them 3 good wins. Further, if they knocked off Colgate and Lehigh to finish off their regular season. It would make them 9-5 with wins over UMd, JHU and Georgetown heading into the Patriot League tmt.
So I think Loyola still has a shot at an at-large bid - we'll know tomorrow night.

I'd be shocked if Loyola got an at large at this point, they have fallen apart especially on offense. If they were to beat G-town that would certainly change things but then G-town will need the AQ themselves to get in. Something is definitely off on Charles street though, they look like a shell of team that won those games earlier this year.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Would Ohio State even be eligible for the postseason with a losing record?

OSU is done, they have essentially packed it in. The only real contender for a potential 4th spot is Rutty and if they don't win on Friday their done to unless they win the AQ. They apparently have lost Cameron for the year, they are in major trouble offensively as they have little quality depth especially at attack.

 

[JeremyCuse]

The good news for Syracuse is I don’t think it matters. I think your case is extremely black and white. Either you get the win you need, or you don’t.

A top 5 win + UNC + either Princeton or Vermont staying in the top 20 is getting you in.

The bubble feels very weak overall this year. It’s the top 7 and then a bunch of uninspiring cases 8th-15th. Look at how little consensus there is over the 8 seed. No one has asserted themselves in this group.

Yup, if SU can win one of the last two I think they are probably in barring absolute chaos in a few conf tourneys. UVA is unfortunately a terrible matchup for Syracuse, the real shot I think is the following week versus Duke assuming they can figure something out at the X.

 

[Zack80]

I'd be shocked if Loyola got an at large at this point, they have fallen apart especially on offense. If they were to beat G-town that would certainly change things but then G-town will need the AQ themselves to get in. Something is definitely off on Charles street though, they look like a shell of team that won those games earlier this year.

Georgetown only beat Marquette 15-14 in ot this past weekend, so it doesn't seem like an impossible task.

 

[fieldystick]

I'd be shocked if Loyola got an at large at this point, they have fallen apart especially on offense. If they were to beat G-town that would certainly change things but then G-town will need the AQ themselves to get in. Something is definitely off on Charles street though, they look like a shell of team that won those games earlier this year.

Loyola is currently sitting on 3 bad losses. If they do beat Georgetown, sure they will get a look - and I will personally think their résumé would fascinating to grade in that case. But come on now.

Duke had an RPI of 7 last year and 3 bad losses and missed. Is Loyola really going to get in with an RPI of ~20ish with 3+ bad losses? So I agree with Jeremy, I think they’re cooked.

 

[Zack80]

Loyola is currently sitting on 3 bad losses. If they do beat Georgetown, sure they will get a look - and I will personally think their résumé would fascinating to grade in that case. But come on now.

Duke had an RPI of 7 last year and 3 bad losses and missed. Is Loyola really going to get in with an RPI of ~20ish with 3+ bad losses? So I agree with Jeremy, I think they’re cooked.

My memory is that Duke had only 1 top ten victory last year - that being over UVa. Loyola would have 3. Further Army sits at the #21 RPI and could move back into the top 20, leaving Loyola with 2 bad losses.

 

[fieldystick]

My memory is that Duke had only 1 top ten victory last year - that being over UVa. Loyola would have 3. Further Army sits at the #21 RPI and could move back into the top 20, leaving Loyola with 2 bad losses.

22 Duke wins: 7/13/17/17/20 - 1 top 10, 5 top 20

Loyola wins would be: top 5 / borderline top 5 / borderline top 10. Zero guarantee that Georgetown is top 10. Best case is top 5/top 5/top 10, but it's not a lock. Going to be tough to find any other top 20 win for Loyola.

As for losses, I think it's just as likely that they end up with 4 bad losses as 2 bad losses. Army could very well not get back in, and they have to lose to someone in the PLT, who also might not get/be in the top 20. 3 bad losses feels most likely to me.

Loyola's RPI is going to be markedly worse than Duke 2022 RPI. Their SOS is currently slightly worse than 2022 Duke SOS (4 spots worse), but I wouldn't be surprised to see this drift further away as some of the power conference teams have their weaker opponents drop of out of their 10 factored in games.

It felt to me like the only reason that anyone argued Duke into the field last year was the RPI number beside their name. I was never impressed by their case and it made me sick feeling like I had to veer toward them at the end (because it seemed like what the committee was going to do based on historical precedent). I had Loyola seeded 2 weeks ago, so my entire problem with their case is their recent bad losses being too much to overcome with what they have left on their schedule - not anything inherent with what they had done up until that point.

 

[wgdsr]

22 Duke wins: 7/13/17/17/20 - 1 top 10, 5 top 20

Loyola wins would be: top 5 / borderline top 5 / borderline top 10. Zero guarantee that Georgetown is top 10. Best case is top 5/top 5/top 10, but it's not a lock. Going to be tough to find any other top 20 win for Loyola.

As for losses, I think it's just as likely that they end up with 4 bad losses as 2 bad losses. Army could very well not get back in, and they have to lose to someone in the PLT, who also might not get/be in the top 20. 3 bad losses feels most likely to me.

Loyola's RPI is going to be markedly worse than Duke 2022 RPI. Their SOS is currently slightly worse than 2022 Duke SOS (4 spots worse), but I wouldn't be surprised to see this drift further away as some of the power conference teams have their weaker opponents drop of out of their 10 factored in games.

It felt to me like the only reason that anyone argued Duke into the field last year was the RPI number beside their name. I was never impressed by their case and it made me sick feeling like I had to veer toward them at the end (because it seemed like what the committee was going to do based on historical precedent). I had Loyola seeded 2 weeks ago, so my entire problem with their case is their recent bad losses being too much to overcome with what they have left on their schedule - not anything inherent with what they had done up until that point.

the path imo is still there, but the chances are probably low double digits even IF they right the ship AND don't get the aq.

5 and 1 or 6 and 1 from here moves their own record /rpi into the .570 to .575 range in a vacuum. that's mid teens, probably. those 6 or 7 games should (maybe) boost the other 75% as only colgate for now would ding their opp' record badly. as of now, laf, bucknell, towson and hc are .36% of their outside calculation, and if they add only colgate (and draw navy in the quarters) it'll be a better chunk added with better opponents going forward than that big chunk. so might creep low double digits or 13 on rpi. on sos, they still have those other 3 (hc off already) to drop, plus with 16/17 games will have more.

they need to be army and boston fans. a holy cross win or 2 would help. navy loss will stick out like a sore thumb, but a new committee.

obviously it's a lot more feasible to win 3 in the pl tourney. duh.

 

[Powellfan]

Syracuse’s resume improved over the weekend, and not just because it beat North Carolina. With Princeton and Vermont jumping into the top 20 of the RPI, the Orange went from no top-20 victories to three. Still, Gary Gait’s team needs to do some damage against Virginia and Duke in the next two weeks.

Albany, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Mount St. Mary’s
(8) Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Albany, N.Y.
(5) Penn State vs. Yale
(4) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.
(3) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. North Carolina

Annapolis, Md.
(7) IVY/Cornell vs. AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Delaware

Last three included: Penn, Yale, North Carolina
First three on the outside: Rutgers, Denver, Villanova
Moving in: Mount St. Mary’s, Penn, Vermont, Yale
Moving out: Bryant, Denver, Manhattan, Rutgers
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)

 

[JeremyCuse]

Syracuse’s resume improved over the weekend, and not just because it beat North Carolina. With Princeton and Vermont jumping into the top 20 of the RPI, the Orange went from no top-20 victories to three. Still, Gary Gait’s team needs to do some damage against Virginia and Duke in the next two weeks.

Albany, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Mount St. Mary’s
(8) Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Albany, N.Y.
(5) Penn State vs. Yale
(4) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.
(3) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. North Carolina

Annapolis, Md.
(7) IVY/Cornell vs. AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Delaware

Last three included: Penn, Yale, North Carolina
First three on the outside: Rutgers, Denver, Villanova
Moving in: Mount St. Mary’s, Penn, Vermont, Yale
Moving out: Bryant, Denver, Manhattan, Rutgers
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)

3 from the IVY? That seems unlikely unless Yale and Penn both make it to the Champ game.

 

[fieldystick]

(7) IVY/Cornell vs. AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Stevens and I have almost identical brackets right now (UNC/Denver difference), but I promise Vermont will not be at the #7 seed. Way too high.

 

[fieldystick]

3 from the IVY? That seems unlikely unless Yale and Penn both make it to the Champ game.

I've been upbeat on 3 from the Ivy for quite a while now, and I also have 3 in the field currently. Unless Syracuse, UNC, or Rutgers do some work, this is where the bids are likely going. The bid that the Big Ten (really Rutgers) threw away has to go somewhere, and the Ivy League is the most likely spot.

Ivy League and Big East will clean up the scraps that are leftover. There is no one else.

I still think there's a 1% chance insanity scenario out there where the Ivy League gets 4 teams in. It's the same tightrope that the ACC tried to unsuccessfully walk last year. Under this scenario, one of Princeton/Brown/Harvard win the AQ and Cornell/Yale/Penn are the last 3 at-larges. It's not likely at all (1% is probably generous), but that it exists at all should show that a 3 bid Ivy League is very much on the table.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Loyola is currently sitting on 3 bad losses. If they do beat Georgetown, sure they will get a look - and I will personally think their résumé would fascinating to grade in that case. But come on now.

Duke had an RPI of 7 last year and 3 bad losses and missed. Is Loyola really going to get in with an RPI of ~20ish with 3+ bad losses? So I agree with Jeremy, I think they’re cooked.

Any chance they would have for an AL would be predicated on beating G-town first and their down 7-2 in the 2nd quarter as I think most expected. Loyola's chances for an at large birth will now be zero after today.

 

[JeremyCuse]

I've been upbeat on 3 from the Ivy for quite a while now, and I also have 3 in the field currently. Unless Syracuse, UNC, or Rutgers do some work, this is where the bids are likely going. The bid that the Big Ten (really Rutgers) threw away has to go somewhere, and the Ivy League is the most likely spot.

Ivy League and Big East will clean up the scraps that are leftover. There is no one else.

I still think there's a 1% chance insanity scenario out there where the Ivy League gets 4 teams in. It's the same tightrope that the ACC tried to unsuccessfully walk last year. Under this scenario, one of Princeton/Brown/Harvard win the AQ and Cornell/Yale/Penn are the last 3 at-larges. It's not likely at all (1% is probably generous), but that it exists at all should show that a 3 bid Ivy League is very much on the table.

I don't know, Penn is literally .500 and neither Penn or Yale has much left schedule wise (both play Albany and 1 IVY conf game). Should either one lost to Albany it's hard to see how they get an AL especially if they take an early exit from the IVY tourney.

 

[nyclax]

if the ivy championship involves two out of the cornell/penn/yale trio, then i think the loser will get an at-large bid. whichever team(s) out of those three that doesn't make the conference title game will need some help. right now yale still has work to do just to qualify for the ivy tourney. they have to beat harvard on the road or their season is over and that frees up a potential spot on the bubble

if princeton beats cornell in a few weeks that would shake things up

ultimately i'd say the ivy will definitely get 1 at-large and possibly a 2nd depending on what else happens on the bubble

 

[Zack80]

Loyola is down 15-3 to Georgetown in the 2nd quarter - so it looks like they will soon be out of the at-large consideration.

 

[fieldystick]

I don't know, Penn is literally .500 and neither Penn or Yale has much left schedule wise (both play Albany and 1 IVY conf game). Should either one lost to Albany it's hard to see how they get an AL especially if they take an early exit from the IVY tourney.

Tell me where else those bids are going though.

IL 2/3 or BE 2/3 or… ???

Neither Ivy can afford to lose a dumb game (Albany), and they are not locks. But if they do reasonably what should happen on paper, they are in decent shape.

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Loyola is down 15-3 to Georgetown in the 2nd quarter - so it looks like they will soon be out of the at-large consideration.

Yeah those early wins against Maryland and Hopkins seem like such heads scratchers now. Certainly seems like they peaked in Feb.

 

[Laxfanshutt]

So it’d be better for Cuse if Ohio State beat Michigan and then lost the rest, right? Otherwise, a Michigan win drops Ohio State but bumps up Michigan, changing nothing in terms of the sheer number of teams on the bubble.

I’ve never rooted for Ohio State before. It feels very wrong and dirty.

So we are going for Ohio st,Penn st providence and Albany on Friday .. Albany would be the biggest so they could improve our RPI .. I think.. lol

 

[AD31]

I feel like the IVY got there gift last yr and none of them deserve a bid this yr just the AQ. Unless Cornell lost in the conference tournament. The conference is just not strong this yr. That's why I hate the RPI. Like I feel like our offense would light up Yale's weak D. Teams have been all season. If they truly go by the best teams. I mean SU gets pulled down because of Holy Cross and the Bonny's being terrible. If that's the case then no top schools should give these small schools a chance to play a big time program it's not worth it because it hurts there chances for the tournament. We blew those teams out but they hurt our RPI. Playing and destroying a weak team should not hurt u for the tournament. The fact SU went to OT with Duke should raise it more then bringing it down for beating up on Holy Cross. I mean anyone of us could go by the eye test and realistically pick the 8 bids and we all would be very close. A few different for the last 1 or 2. U know who the best teams are. The committee should be doing the same not going by this RPI. The tournament is for the best teams to battle it out to find out who is the best.

 

[fieldystick]

I feel like the IVY got there gift last yr and none of them deserve a bid this yr just the AQ. Unless Cornell lost in the conference tournament. The conference is just not strong this yr. That's why I hate the RPI. Like I feel like our offense would light up Yale's weak D. Teams have been all season. If they truly go by the best teams. I mean SU gets pulled down because of Holy Cross and the Bonny's being terrible. If that's the case then no top schools should give these small schools a chance to play a big time program it's not worth it because it hurts there chances for the tournament. We blew those teams out but they hurt our RPI. Playing and destroying a weak team should not hurt u for the tournament. The fact SU went to OT with Duke should raise it more then bringing it down for beating up on Holy Cross. I mean anyone of us could go by the eye test and realistically pick the 8 bids and we all would be very close. A few different for the last 1 or 2. U know who the best teams are. The committee should be doing the same not going by this RPI. The tournament is for the best teams to battle it out to find out who is the best.

Ah yes, my favorite, the eye test. Remember how that worked out for Syracuse the last time it was used? Eye test and margin of victory were the sole reasons Cuse got hosed out of the 6/7 seed range per results and data and was instead the effective 12 and “last team in.” Eye test.

Eye test is trash, it’s not rooted in any kind of reality because my eye test can be different from your eye test can be different from another person’s eye test. It’s nonsense.

The reason that almost all serious bracketology posts form a strong consensus by the end is that the data is the data and with the selection criteria we are given to work with, there is very little wiggle room in how we interpret that data.

A good example of the wiggle room right now is: Stevens and I are split on the ordering of PSU/UMCP, how much does head to head factory in overcoming PSU’s better wins? But it doesn’t allow for crazy off the wall assessments of teams that eye test does because you’re tied to guidelines on what you’re using to evaluate.

Who knows what I’m looking for with an eye test. That’s just a media poll. Do you really want your team to be at the mercy of a group of people’s (who may or may not even watch these teams play) entirely subjective eye test?

 

[nyclax]

I mean SU gets pulled down because of Holy Cross and the Bonny's being terrible. If that's the case then no top schools should give these small schools a chance to play a big time program it's not worth it because it hurts there chances for the tournament. We blew those teams out but they hurt our RPI. Playing and destroying a weak team should not hurt u for the tournament.

the fact is that if you want to put together an elite RPI schedule, you have to be ruthless. you can't worry about giving smaller schools a chance.

that said, there is usually room to put one or maybe two smaller school "cupcakes" on the schedule without it dinging your RPI too much. the problem is when you put too many of them on as syracuse did this year. you want to keep rivalries with albany and hobart, i get it, but then why do you also have to play st. bonnies (#66), hofstra (#56), and holy cross (#70) too? those games are a DRAG. replace one of those with a stony brook or a manhattan or something. or just get rid of them entirely. they didn't need to play 15 games this year.

gait will prob learn from this and schedule smarter in future years. getting cornell and army back on will help

 

[fieldystick]

the fact is that if you want to put together an elite RPI schedule, you have to be ruthless. you can't worry about giving smaller schools a chance.

that said, there is usually room to put one or maybe two smaller school "cupcakes" on the schedule without it dinging your RPI too much. the problem is when you put too many of them on as syracuse did this year. you want to keep rivalries with albany and hobart, i get it, but then why do you also have to play st. bonnies (#66), hofstra (#56), and holy cross (#70) too? those games are a DRAG. replace one of those with a stony brook or a manhattan or something. or just get rid of them entirely. they didn't need to play 15 games this year.

gait will prob learn from this and schedule smarter in future years. getting cornell and army back on will help

Still think Syracuse will get in if they win one of the next two, but all good points above.

Remove two main offenders from the schedule and 7-6 Syracuse evaluates better per metrics than 9-6 Syracuse.

 

[Powellfan]

the fact is that if you want to put together an elite RPI schedule, you have to be ruthless. you can't worry about giving smaller schools a chance.

that said, there is usually room to put one or maybe two smaller school "cupcakes" on the schedule without it dinging your RPI too much. the problem is when you put too many of them on as syracuse did this year. you want to keep rivalries with albany and hobart, i get it, but then why do you also have to play st. bonnies (#66), hofstra (#56), and holy cross (#70) too? those games are a DRAG. replace one of those with a stony brook or a manhattan or something. or just get rid of them entirely. they didn't need to play 15 games this year.

gait will prob learn from this and schedule smarter in future years. getting cornell and army back on will help

Good points. Kind of ironic considering Gait got ravaged by most of us on here for last year's schedule being too difficult. Now it's not difficult enough. In the grand scheme of things, I know it goes against making the playoffs but I think having those easier games on the schedule was maybe not such a bad thing considering this team was very young. Perhaps the reason they are playing so well is because they were able to build their confidence in some of those early season games.

Agreed that they probably could have structured things a bit different. If they had beaten Hopkins and or Duke we probably aren't having this discussion. That said, the schedule next year should be better, as I think they will be ready to handle a heavier load. We shall see.

 

[AD31]

Ah yes, my favorite, the eye test. Remember how that worked out for Syracuse the last time it was used? Eye test and margin of victory were the sole reasons Cuse got hosed out of the 6/7 seed range per results and data and was instead the effective 12 and “last team in.” Eye test.

Eye test is trash, it’s not rooted in any kind of reality because my eye test can be different from your eye test can be different from another person’s eye test. It’s nonsense.

The reason that almost all serious bracketology posts form a strong consensus by the end is that the data is the data and with the selection criteria we are given to work with, there is very little wiggle room in how we interpret that data.

A good example of the wiggle room right now is: Stevens and I are split on the ordering of PSU/UMCP, how much does head to head factory in overcoming PSU’s better wins? But it doesn’t allow for crazy off the wall assessments of teams that eye test does because you’re tied to guidelines on what you’re using to evaluate.

Who knows what I’m looking for with an eye test. That’s just a media poll. Do you really want your team to be at the mercy of a group of people’s (who may or may not even watch these teams play) entirely subjective eye test?

I don't mean to really use the eye test but more of the RPI is garbage.