2023 Bracketology

[wgdsr]

Still think Syracuse will get in if they win one of the next two, but all good points above.

Remove two main offenders from the schedule and 7-6 Syracuse evaluates better per metrics than 9-6 Syracuse.

the problem there is, of course, they'd still need to win one of the next 2 to have any chance at all.

bonnies was ~#40 last year and 11-4. moving to the a10 after the maac, you could expect at least some record drop off, but you'd get some back with opp opp record. they lost to at least 4 teams they beat last year. i don't know how much goes into evaluating a team's returning roster, etc.

hofstra was 50 not egregious, but hc was 70. and won 1 game in 2022? if they're on the schedule next year, someone should have to do wind sprints.

there are folks that are into conference success as being a semi-requisite (i am not... prefer all of it), but if someone goes 1 and 5 in their conference, you can't feel too bad if they're left out unless they crush it otherwise. cuse is dangerous right now, and they have 2 shells left.

 

[fieldystick]

the problem there is, of course, they'd still need to win one of the next 2 to have any chance at all.

How is this a problem?

What I am saying that in some world where Syracuse does win one of their next two games, I think 7-6 minus whatever two bad opponents of your choosing evaluates more favorably than the 9-6 Syracuse that actually would be.

Either way, I think they will be in, but I think there would be a lot less trepidation around here about the metrics if it were 7-6 instead of 9-6. It's entirely a scheduling problem that's tanking the metrics for Syracuse.

 

[fieldystick]

Kind of ironic considering Gait got ravaged by most of us on here for last year's schedule being too difficult. Now it's not difficult enough.

I think the problem isn't really the difficulty of the schedule more so that it's entirely bipolar other than like 3 games. To me, when we focus on schedule difficulty, we're normally talking about the most difficult parts of the schedule, the high end opponents. Syracuse has plenty of those.

There a lot of top ~10 type opponents that Syracuse is an underdog against... sure, you could win and that changes everything about your season, but still a sizable underdog.

And then there are a lot of absolutely terrible record/low RPI opponents that at best don't count for anything if you win against them and at worst actively hurt you for even playing them.

And there's not much in the middle. Opponents that you can and maybe should beat that actually help you if you do. The lack of this middle is what I think really hurt Syracuse this year.

 

[JeremyCuse]

How is this a problem?

What I am saying that in some world where Syracuse does win one of their next two games, I think 7-6 minus whatever two bad opponents of your choosing evaluates more favorably than the 9-6 Syracuse that actually would be.

Either way, I think they will be in, but I think there would be a lot less trepidation around here about the metrics if it were 7-6 instead of 9-6. It's entirely a scheduling problem that's tanking the metrics for Syracuse.

I disagree, the optics assuming SU wins one of the last two looks a lot better at 9-6 then barely being one game over .500. Yes Holy Cross is dragging the RPI down but SU clearly played a highly competitive OOC with Maryland, Hop, Vermont, Albany, Princeton etc.

 

[fieldystick]

I disagree, the optics assuming SU wins one of the last two looks a lot better at 9-6 then barely being one game over .500. Yes Holy Cross is dragging the RPI down but SU clearly played a highly competitive OOC with Maryland, Hop, Vermont, Albany, Princeton etc.

I honestly don't think the optics of your record matter as long as your are eligible. How many times have we seen Hopkins, or Penn, or Notre Dame, or even Syracuse themselves get in with a .500/barely over .500 record?

Syracuse's lowest two wins, the ones in the margins here, the difference between 9-6 and 7-6 do absolutely nothing for you except get you to .500 if you need it - which was not an issue here. What those games are doing for you is actively hurting you in the RPI (which ironically might hurt UNC more than it does Syracuse) and hurting your average RPI win.

I think it's very fortunate for Syracuse that it's likely moot this year over the difference between these two records of 9-6/7-6, but I think there are real scheduling dynamic lessons to be learned from this for moving forward.

 

[cuselaxss26]

the fact is that if you want to put together an elite RPI schedule, you have to be ruthless. you can't worry about giving smaller schools a chance.

that said, there is usually room to put one or maybe two smaller school "cupcakes" on the schedule without it dinging your RPI too much. the problem is when you put too many of them on as syracuse did this year. you want to keep rivalries with albany and hobart, i get it, but then why do you also have to play st. bonnies (#66), hofstra (#56), and holy cross (#70) too? those games are a DRAG. replace one of those with a stony brook or a manhattan or something. or just get rid of them entirely. they didn't need to play 15 games this year.

gait will prob learn from this and schedule smarter in future years. getting cornell and army back on will help

Well last year st bonnies was 11-4 i believe what would of been helpful playing them this year. Hofstra believe was better record last year then their doing this year. So not like gait could of seen these teams we’re gonna completely poop bed this year. Holy cross can’t defend them they really haven’t been good n struggle a lot. So yes def get rid of them. Albany normally not this bad plus beat us last year and is a rival. So think he has intentions of cupcake games but teams who def prob see being this bad. Mean bonnies won 1 game so far and as said think they were 11-4 last year. So don’t think can blame it to much.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Also with how acc has been with playing two teams twice took away two more games possibly. Could had have army n cornell again on schedule this year n if beaten both of them prob be in tounry now even losing next two maby. As said think he looked at who had decent years last year and knew had good chances to beat and have young guys guild chemistry before got into tougher matchups. But st bonnies just nothing this year same with albany n hofstra. Hofstra usually competes in their conference. Holy cross is only one i can defend as totally agree they shouldn’t be on schedule but it is. Think be nice to maby add teams like high point, richman, love to see jacksonville on there as now seen to get a lot of love from polls and plus be great story with john coaching there. Also said maby team like villanova on there. But doesn’t mean they won’t be tough games also but personally think cuse would win most of them.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Gotta also take account to availability and travel and whatever other nonsense is involved. Also if those teams want to play which couldn’t see some saying no really. But either way cuse has to take care of business these next two games without doubt win least one. Be diff story if beaten hopkins or duke or even didn’t fall apart in ND game or first unc game. But clearly the team took some time to gel and build confidence. Also think year has been improvement no matter what happens playoffs or not hope for playoffs but still proud how turn around from last year. Looks super bright next year also. Let’s get faceoff guy who is solid tho for next year please and some d mids.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Feel less bad about not playing cornell this year since it was immediately replaced with Princeton, another Ivey that was also at least projected to be a high ranking team. Shame they couldnt be a bigger boost for us this season. Two Iveys next year could be a big help and it kind of sounds like that is going to happen. The strategy this year seemed to be focused on getting some reps for an inexperienced team with the cupcakes early (but UVM was not exactly a walk in the park). Also it was clearly a conscious choice to have a natural break in the season with the middle of the pack stretch of easy teams.

It is tempting to knock the schedule when we are in this borderline scenario if we get one more win this season. You knew this was coming by playing teams like holy cross. But in the end we had our opportunities to be in a relaxed position right now and we came up short. If we took care of business in a couple of our games in the early season (won 2 of UNC Duke MD Hop) then this past weekends UNC victory would probably be locking us into the playoffs. A couple of those games were close. We did not get it done.

If it really is going to come down to a scenario where we win one more game and, for instance:

-We would have made the playoffs if we played no game instead of playing Holy Cross that one weekend
-We make it if we played a cornell or army and LOST instead of playing a team like holy cross early.

If thats the case then you have to think the cupcakes on there for a break or confidence or what have you just aint worth it. We wont be dropping Hobart or Albany any time soon and they are not total lost causes. Hobart almost beat St. Joes which would have been nice. Bonaventure had a solid year against mostly lesser teams last year (11-4). A goal away from beating manhattan and making the playoffs. Im sure we were not banking on them being quite so poor when we signed up, but the writing was somewhat on the wall with their new difficult conference and no Brett Dobson in cage. Similar case with Hofstra. With Holy Cross there is no excuse. Any one could tell you they were looking at another year of the same and be some kind of drain. Did we get better or learn anything worthwhile that day? Probably not.

 

[wgdsr]

hc gets the big win over 0-11 umass-lowell and syracuse bumps up to #18.

 

[JeremyCuse]

hc gets the big win over 0-11 umass-lowell and syracuse bumps up to #18.

LOL, Umass Lowell was up big in that game to as I checked it out as I nearly put some $$ on Holy Cross. The Crusaders coming through.

 

[wgdsr]

Feel less bad about not playing cornell this year since it was immediately replaced with Princeton, another Ivey that was also at least projected to be a high ranking team. Shame they couldnt be a bigger boost for us this season. Two Iveys next year could be a big help and it kind of sounds like that is going to happen. The strategy this year seemed to be focused on getting some reps for an inexperienced team with the cupcakes early (but UVM was not exactly a walk in the park). Also it was clearly a conscious choice to have a natural break in the season with the middle of the pack stretch of easy teams.

It is tempting to knock the schedule when we are in this borderline scenario if we get one more win this season. You knew this was coming by playing teams like holy cross. But in the end we had our opportunities to be in a relaxed position right now and we came up short. If we took care of business in a couple of our games in the early season (won 2 of UNC Duke MD Hop) then this past weekends UNC victory would probably be locking us into the playoffs. A couple of those games were close. We did not get it done.

If it really is going to come down to a scenario where we win one more game and, for instance:

-We would have made the playoffs if we played no game instead of playing Holy Cross that one weekend
-We make it if we played a cornell or army and LOST instead of playing a team like holy cross early.

If thats the case then you have to think the cupcakes on there for a break or confidence or what have you just aint worth it. We wont be dropping Hobart or Albany any time soon and they are not total lost causes. Hobart almost beat St. Joes which would have been nice. Bonaventure had a solid year against mostly lesser teams last year (11-4). A goal away from beating manhattan and making the playoffs. Im sure we were not banking on them being quite so poor when we signed up, but the writing was somewhat on the wall with their new difficult conference and no Brett Dobson in cage. Similar case with Hofstra. With Holy Cross there is no excuse. Any one could tell you they were looking at another year of the same and be some kind of drain. Did we get better or learn anything worthwhile that day? Probably not.

since the beginning of time, maybe, uva has played at least 1 in-state school. for the longest time (since w&l went d3 or d3 teams were no longer allowed at least), vmi had to be that team. thank god for richmond. i don't believe the keydets were ever small-partially responsible for the hoos not getting in, but they certainly could've been.

 

[fieldystick]

Tick tock for Rutty… do they get one last chance at the win they need?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2023-bracketology-second-look-is-army-this-year-s-jacksonville-/61255

 

[Zack80]

Tick tock for Rutty… do they get one last chance at the win they need?

I believe Rutgers gets the UMd-JHU loser, so they will get one more shot.
Michigan should get OSU again, which is not particularly good, as beating OSU will probably knock OSU out of the top 20.

Right at the moment it is looking like Ivy Leagues and Big East teams for the final 3 at-large spots. Although if UNC or Syracuse can win one of their two games against top teams, they should make it.

 

[wgdsr]

cuse up to 17.

 

[cuselaxss26]

How does he have maryland seeded 3rd psu 5th yet has hopkins winning bigten tounry nnthem at 6th if they won mean beat maryland or psu.

 

[wgdsr]

cuse up to 17.

edit: i believe this is wrong and seeking clarification.

 

[Laxfanshutt]

edit: i believe this is wrong and seeking clarification.

 

[PhatOrange]

Yale has to beat Harvard

 

[wgdsr]

View attachment 227297

it's fixed now. input error genesis from 3rd party... surprisingly if u can imagine... the nc$$.

vermont goes back to 15 and a top 20 win for the orange.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

It just occurred to me that I should be rooting for Notre Dame against UNC, shouldn’t I?

 

[JeremyCuse]

It just occurred to me that I should be rooting for Notre Dame against UNC, shouldn’t I?

Yes

 

[wgdsr]

It just occurred to me that I should be rooting for Notre Dame against UNC, shouldn’t I?

imo, not necessarily. plusses and minuses.

 

[fieldystick]

How does he have maryland seeded 3rd psu 5th yet has hopkins winning bigten tounry nnthem at 6th if they won mean beat maryland or psu.

None of us project games in the future in our brackets.