2024 Bracketology

[Powellfan]

Towson, Md.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. Virginia

Towson, Md.
(5) Duke vs. ACC/Towson
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Colgate

Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. Army

Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) BIG EAST/Denver vs. Maryland
(2) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac

Last three included: Virginia, Maryland, Army
First three on the outside: Georgetown, Princeton, Michigan
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)

Syracuse’s victories (particularly Duke and Johns Hopkins) provide it a seeding boost in this early exercise. …

 

[nyclax]

they must have wrote this on sunday or monday because his RPI is completely out or order, lol

for example notre dame is actually 5th in the RPI now and possesses zero top 10 wins now that maryland is #11. but stevens lists them at #2 in the RPI with a top 10 win and gives them the 2 seed...

 

[fieldystick]

they must have wrote this on sunday or monday because his RPI is completely out or order, lol

for example notre dame is actually 5th in the RPI now and possesses zero top 10 wins now that maryland is #11. but stevens lists them at #2 in the RPI with a top 10 win and gives them the 2 seed...

He did. The numbers are out of date. And I have things to say.

 

[fieldystick]

This was a conversation that I was having in my twitter DMs on Saturday night.

It's about what we thought Stevens would have in his first projection. I wanted to post more of this conversation, but the person that I was talking to asked me not to post any more than this.

 

[fieldystick]

I am not trying to start round 2 of nerds fighting on twitter about stuff that ultimately doesn't matter. (see round 1: 2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on Twitter )

But come on Notre Dame is not the current #2 seed. Is Notre Dame the 2nd best team? Heck they might even be the best team! But that's not what this exercise is supposed to be about.

To say: "Virginia surprisingly doesn’t have the deepest of resumes, even with victories over half of the Big Ten (including Maryland and Michigan)." in your article and then seed the team with an identical top 20 wins profile of UMCP, UM(, and at the time OSU) 2nd while leaving UVA unseeded...

The data does not follow. That's eye test for ND bleeding into the projection, in my opinion.

 

[fieldystick]

Towson, Md.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. Virginia

Towson, Md.
(5) Duke vs. ACC/Towson
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Colgate

Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. Army

Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) BIG EAST/Denver vs. Maryland
(2) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac

Last three included: Virginia, Maryland, Army
First three on the outside: Georgetown, Princeton, Michigan
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)

Sorry for the rare and incredible accomplishment of quadruple post. This will be it for me for now before I get totally off the rails about this projection - especially since this is effectively "first look" for both of us, and it's not worth this much consternation from me at the end of March.

I usually don't post my own stuff here for a reason (I feel like I am self-promoting). Many times Powellfan posts my projections for discussion in this thread and I am grateful for that. I am about to make a small exception to discuss something.

Both of our projections were done with the RPI basically as of Sunday night, the only difference is when we posted. (BU flipped into the RPI top 20 over OSU on Sunday night, which is in my data, but not Stevens', so I'm somewhat unsure as to when he pulled it... but it's basically Sunday data.) I posted on Monday morning because I was waiting on the media poll to go up because I needed it for how I determine current AQs. This article was posted on Thursday, but it's using (basically) the same data that I did.

My seeds / Stevens seeds
#1 Penn State / Penn State
#2 Yale / Notre Dame
#3 Syracuse / Syracuse
#4 Denver / Yale
#5 Cornell / Duke
#6 Notre Dame / Cornell
#7 Duke / Denver
#8 Virginia / J Hopkins

I have Hopkins effective 9th. I assume Stevens has Virginia effective 9th.

Our bubbles go:
Me: Hopkins/Maryland // Army/Penn/Michigan/Princeton
PS: Maryland/Army // Georgetown/Princeton/Michigan

The big discrepancy here is that I have Georgetown as the current Big East AQ which has shrunk my bubble by one compared to what Stevens has. I would have had Georgetown behind Army in mine too if not for them getting the current BE AQ per my criteria.

Our bubble calls look basically the same. If you squint at our seeding order, most of it looks close enough to the same that I wouldn't really be too picky about almost all of it. So what's the rub here?

The gulf between ND and UVA. It doesn't make any sense. They have almost identical profiles. ND should be ahead of UVA by a spot or two... not seven.

 

[fieldystick]

To prep Syracuse fans for what you're going to be looking at on Monday/Tuesday/etc when brackets start coming out.

The collective ACC rise that I was advertising for April is going to come on April 1.

Notre Dame will be the clear #1 seed tomorrow. Penn State's profile has been damaged by Colgate slipping out of the top 20 and Yale/Cornell drops.

If Penn State wins tonight, they should still be the #2 seed, but may drop as far as #8 if they lose.

There is a wad of teams after this clarity at the top: Denver, Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, and debatably Johns Hopkins. Most of my discussions heading into today's games about the state of the bracket have hinged on this group and whether Hopkins is actually in it or not (I say no). Duke's positioning within this group hinges almost entirely on head to head. Denver at the moment evaluates ahead of Syracuse, which creates a messy situation for Duke. Either they end up at the top of this group or toward the back of it, pinned behind Syracuse. Virginia's positioning hinges pretty heavily on the inclusion/non-inclusion of Hopkins.

Cornell is the current final seed via head-to-head with Yale if Penn State wins tonight. Maryland will be a seed instead of Cornell if they win tonight.

Don't take this to the bank, but something like this should be what you see in the coming days:

PSU wins:
1. ND
2. PSU
3. Duke
4. Denver
5-7: Syracuse/Virginia... Hopkins?
8. Cornell

Maryland wins:
1. ND
2. Duke
3. Denver
4/5. Syracuse/Virginia
6. Maryland
7. Hopkins
8. Penn State

If you wanted a bigger headache, I guess you could wrap Maryland and Hopkins into the Syracuse debate.

-

Basically Syracuse is still fine, which most of you probably expected. You're one win away still from being an actual lock instead of an effective lock.

 

[nyclax]

i doubt virginia would be seeded ahead of hop right now when hop has the higher rpi and head to head win, even with their bad loss to navy. uva's resume is not better enough to overcome the h2h

if psu wins, id go something like
nd
psu
duke
denver
cuse
hop
uva
cornell

and if umd wins:
nd
duke
denver
cuse
hop
uva
umd
psu

 

[fieldystick]

i doubt virginia would be seeded ahead of hop right now when hop has the higher rpi and head to head win

As of right this minute, I personally have Virginia as the #3 seed and Hopkins as the #7 seed, but obvioiusly this is meaningless with a game left to play before anything is finalized. (UND Denver UVA PSU, but PSU has to either win or lose, so...)

I don't see UVA and JHU profiles as even being remotely similar right now.



I have been consistently down on Hopkins' profile the entire time I've been seriously working on this stuff since the middle of March (Navy loss). Last week, I had UVA as the final seed over JHU, despite the head to head. I didn't view it as close then, nothing changed this week to change my opinion (both added T20 wins).

I accept that I might be way out of step with the consensus on Hopkins, but don't ever accuse me of being a homer. I don't think it's the name on the uniform that is changing my view here either. PSU losing tonight gives them an extremely similar profile to what Hopkins currently has... and I would likely seed them (JHU & PSU) 7/8 in that scenario.

-

For that matter, compare UVA above to current PSU below. UVA looks darn near strictly better (PSU has slightly better wins is all they have) in my opinion. I really don't think Hop is in the group up for debate, but just my two cents...

 

[nyclax]

As of right this minute, I personally have Virginia as the #3 seed and Hopkins as the #7 seed, but obvioiusly this is meaningless with a game left to play before anything is finalized. (UND Denver UVA PSU, but PSU has to either win or lose, so...)

I don't see UVA and JHU profiles as even being remotely similar right now.

View attachment 239358View attachment 239359

I have been consistently down on Hopkins' profile the entire time I've been seriously working on this stuff since the middle of March (Navy loss). Last week, I had UVA as the final seed over JHU, despite the head to head. I didn't view it as close then, nothing changed this week to change my opinion (both added T20 wins).

I accept that I might be way out of step with the consensus on Hopkins, but don't ever accuse me of being a homer. I don't think it's the name on the uniform that is changing my view here either. PSU losing tonight gives them an extremely similar profile to what Hopkins currently has... and I would likely seed them (JHU & PSU) 7/8 in that scenario.

-

For that matter, compare UVA above to current PSU below. UVA looks darn near strictly better (PSU has slightly better wins is all they have) in my opinion. I really don't think Hop is in the group up for debate, but just my two cents...
View attachment 239360

what am i missing...

hop has the better rpi, sos, and the head to head (which is a top 5 win, something uva doesnt have yet. and yes it does double count...the committee will see that as a h2h win and a top 5 win separately)

uva has 1 extra top 20 win and no bad losses

i am still not seeing enough from uva to put them ahead of a team they lost to that also has the better rpi, sos, and a top 5 win...

FYI...there is almost no precedent for a team falling 4+ spots on the seed line relative to their rpi. you see teams fall 2 and 3 spots quite often but 4 is exceedingly rare. there was albany falling 5 spots in 2017 and duke falling from rpi 7 to out of the tournament in 2022 but thats becuase they had a whopping 3 bad losses. outside of those two i cant find another recent example. typically teams are within 2-3 spots of their rpi at most...

 

[fieldystick]

what am i missing...

hop has the better rpi, sos, and the head to head (which is a top 5 win, something uva doesnt have yet. and yes it does double count...the committee will see that as a h2h win and a top 5 win separately)

uva has 1 extra top 20 win and no bad losses

i am still not seeing enough from uva to put them ahead of a team they lost to that also has the better rpi, sos, and a top 5 win...

If you want my blunt answer (not trying to be a jerk) on what I think everyone is missing: This isn't a debate between just Hopkins and Virginia. (And even if it is, I still think UVA is ahead, but that's a different discussion).

Why does Hopkins over Virginia matter any more than - if Maryland wins - any of the following?:
Virginia > Maryland > Syracuse > Hopkins > Virginia...

Pick any head to head to get stuck on, and it's easy to twist it however you want within this group. Virginia is 9-1 and winning games/your own record does matter quite a bit.

FYI...there is almost no precedent for a team falling 4+ spots on the seed line relative to their rpi. you see teams fall 2 and 3 spots quite often but 4 is exceedingly rare. there was albany falling 5 spots in 2017 and duke falling from rpi 7 to out of the tournament in 2022 but thats becuase they had a whopping 3 bad losses. outside of those two i cant find another recent example. typically teams are within 2-3 spots of their rpi at most...

I'm aware and agreed. But these aren't selection day RPIs just yet. I think everyone leans too heavily on own RPIs in general, but even I will draw more into focus on that as we move toward selection. For now, if we're seeding tightly correlated on own RPIs, what is the purpose of even thinking about and discussing this topic, anyway? Just post a link to current RPI and call it a day. This is sort of the root of the existential crisis that I was having in 2022 leading up to selection day/show.

I made this last year regarding your above point. There is no 2023 because I made it in April 2023.

 

[nyclax]

that's a great chart. thanks for making that. so yes it looks like albany in 2017 is the only time a team fell more than 3 spots. unless u count duke 2022

if maryland wins, the rpi would be:
1 nd
2 duke
3 hop
4 uva
5 denver
6 cuse
7 md
8 psu

this will prob sort itself out and be much clearer by selection sunday. but if they were picking today id put money on them keeping each team within 3 of their rpi. hop > uva > md > cuse or cuse > hop > uva > umd would both accomplish that. uva > umd > cuse > hop is the only one that makes one of those four teams move 4 spots

 

[fieldystick]

this will prob sort itself out and be much clearer by selection sunday.

I am a firm believer of this.

I will strongly defend the current RPI-based as being pretty good, even though it's a whipping boy in many circles. I will not take the NCAA's approach that the RPI system is above reproach/cannot be improved - I can link to the NCAA using basically this same arrogant verbiage in a document if someone wants me to. But we don't need to throw the baby out with the bath water, in my opinion, if we are looking for reform/improvement.

I have yet to see a team in the last ~decade that I felt had made a definitive case for inclusion per the stated selection criteria, be excluded from the field. Example: I thought Harvard and Notre Dame looked much more similar on paper than ESPN let on all throughout the final days of 2022. I would have been perfectly fine with either choice for the last spot, but I do not feel that either demanded inclusion.

This is why my focus draws more tightly on own RPIs as we go, but I am "not a slave to it" as ESPN once said on air (again, in 2022), and especially not in March/April.

The final selection RPI order tends to be a more reasonable representation of the season than many people seem willing to admit.

 

[Powellfan]

This is perhaps a dumb question, but if SU is at fifth or sixth in the RPI now, and if they lose their last three games, wouldn’t that put them squarely on the bubble? Perhaps just playing Cornell and UVA boosts their RPI a bit but UNCs RPI I think was in the 30s last I checked.

SU on paper is a much better team than UNC but the Tar Heels have a ton of talent (just ask the IL recruiting rankings). Losing that game makes me very nervous about making the tournament.

 

[nyclax]

This is perhaps a dumb question, but if SU is at fifth or sixth in the RPI now, and if they lose their last three games, wouldn’t that put them squarely on the bubble? Perhaps just playing Cornell and UVA boosts their RPI a bit but UNCs RPI I think was in the 30s last I checked.

SU on paper is a much better team than UNC but the Tar Heels have a ton of talent (just ask the IL recruiting rankings). Losing that game makes me very nervous about making the tournament.

theyre in if they win one more game. theyd still have a chance if they lost all three, but they would be on the road and it would depend on what other teams do...and suddenly theyd have a bad loss...

the fact that the orange have already locked in two top 5-10 wins is big as some teams theyd be competing with on the bubble will not have that

if they lose their last 4 games including one to a mediocre unc team then you could make the argument they dont deserve it anyway. luckily i dont think thats going to happen...they will beat either cornell or unc

 

[fieldystick]

This is perhaps a dumb question, but if SU is at fifth or sixth in the RPI now, and if they lose their last three games, wouldn’t that put them squarely on the bubble? Perhaps just playing Cornell and UVA boosts their RPI a bit but UNCs RPI I think was in the 30s last I checked.

SU on paper is a much better team than UNC but the Tar Heels have a ton of talent (just ask the IL recruiting rankings). Losing that game makes me very nervous about making the tournament.

Not a dumb question at all!

If Syracuse loses out, it will be a bubble case. I suspect 9-6 Syracuse will get in ("effective lock"), but it would certainly go to the committee (versus a "lock" where there is no reasonable debate to be had in terms of inclusion). It would probably ultimately depend on how much chaos there is in the Big Ten/Ivy/Big East/PL* championships as to what the ultimate verdict for Syracuse was. * PL only if Army wins out in the regular season

Syracuse's 2024 schedule still isn't what I would personally recommend scheduling to build a consistently strong tourney case, as the bottom ~third of Syracuse's schedule is not really helpful for selection purposes and those teams had little chance of being helpful, but it has worked this year.

My feeling heading into the year was that Syracuse needed 2 big wins and avoid bad losses to get in... and it seems like that has happened. UNC could still finish RPI top 20, and a win over Syracuse would go a long way in helping them achieve that - hence why I'm not sure it would actually be a bad loss per critera for Syracuse.

 

[Zack80]

I'd probably have UVa at #2 right now.
I like the fact that they have only the loss to JHU, who is top 10.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

after the loss yesterday we prob 8/9 bound unless win 2 more?

 

[Zack80]

NCAA Bracketology: Razor-Thin Margin Between Duke, Notre Dame

Tuesday night's Syracuse loss flipped the other ACC powers in the RPI.

www.usalacrosse.com

Syracuse looks bubble in at the moment. Georgetown appears to be the main competitor for the last at-large spot right now. Princeton and Michigan would have to build their resumes to compete.

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Syracuse vs. Yale

Towson, Md.
(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s

Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force
(6) Maryland vs. IVY/Penn

Towson, Md.
(7) Cornell vs. Penn State
(2) Duke vs. ACC/Towson

Last three included: Syracuse, Penn State, Yale
First three on the outside: Georgetown, Princeton, Michigan
Moving in: Albany, Penn, Sacred Heart
Moving out: Colgate, Quinnipiac, UMBC
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)

 

[Powellfan]

NCAA Bracketology: Razor-Thin Margin Between Duke, Notre Dame

Tuesday night's Syracuse loss flipped the other ACC powers in the RPI.

www.usalacrosse.com

Syracuse looks bubble in at the moment. Georgetown appears to be the main competitor for the last at-large spot right now. Princeton and Michigan would have to build their resumes to compete.

Seems like they are in that 7/8 range. Not sure how the rest of the season will effect things. Probably have to keep rooting for Maryland and Hopkins (yuck) and hope there are no bid stealers. The fact they are hanging onto a home game at this point is good, but I hate the thought they are on the bubble in a season as topsy-turvy as this one.

 

[upperdeck]

interesting that the RPI and the best SOS almost all belongs to teams on the bubble.

 

[cuselaxss26]

don’t really see how denver would deserve 3seed

 

[Powellfan]

'Cuse still with a home game according to Fieldystick -

 

[wgdsr]

I am a firm believer of this.

I will strongly defend the current RPI-based as being pretty good, even though it's a whipping boy in many circles. I will not take the NCAA's approach that the RPI system is above reproach/cannot be improved - I can link to the NCAA using basically this same arrogant verbiage in a document if someone wants me to. But we don't need to throw the baby out with the bath water, in my opinion, if we are looking for reform/improvement.

I have yet to see a team in the last ~decade that I felt had made a definitive case for inclusion per the stated selection criteria, be excluded from the field. Example: I thought Harvard and Notre Dame looked much more similar on paper than ESPN let on all throughout the final days of 2022. I would have been perfectly fine with either choice for the last spot, but I do not feel that either demanded inclusion.

This is why my focus draws more tightly on own RPIs as we go, but I am "not a slave to it" as ESPN once said on air (again, in 2022), and especially not in March/April.

The final selection RPI order tends to be a more reasonable representation of the season than many people seem willing to admit.

now do nd vs tosu.

 

[Hoo's That]

Gee, we've gone from (essentially) #9 in that first bracketology in this thread to #2 in a week. I was afraid that, by beating UNC, we'd be relegated to a play-in game by RPI.