2024 Bracketology

[fieldystick]

I'm not sure Syracuse is a lock. I think there still could be a path for 3 Ivies. This would have a higher likelihood if Cornell beat ND today.

Sure, I agree. There is still a very obvious path for 3 Ivy League bids. I don't even think Cornell needs to win today for this to happen.

In fact, at this point, if the season goes "default" path for everything, I think the Ivy League gets 2 of the last 3 at large bids come Selection Sunday (plus their AQ) at the expense of Georgetown.

Basically, yes, I agree. But I don't think this is relevant to Syracuse. The "fat" will be cut elsewhere if there is a 3 bid Ivy.

 

[Zack80]

Georgetown can beat Denver for the Big East AQ.

 

[fieldystick]

Georgetown can beat Denver for the Big East AQ.

Absolutely, they can. But then Denver needs an at-large and unless they slip up twice in their remaining three games against non-T20 type teams... they're (Denver) a lock for that too. So there would be one fewer at-large bid available.

Unless you're constructing a scenario where:
Georgetown wins the Big East AQ *and* the bottom absolutely falls out for Penn State somehow.

I don't see a world where Georgetown is in the NCAA tournament and the Ivy League is a 3 bid league because PSU has relevant head to heads over whichever of either of Cornell/Yale they'd be compared to for the bubble.

If Georgetown wins the Big East AQ, it will be either an Ivy League team or Penn State being squeezed out.

(Syracuse appeared nowhere in this scenario until now.)

Maybe I have a lack of imagination, but I just don't see how this is relevant to Syracuse. They have two top 5 wins. That is an extremely rare feat, those will hold as top 5 wins in all likelihood and at the absolute worst, one of them becomes a top 10 win instead. They will likely finish with an RPI around 6th/7th/8th. The only remote chance that any losses becomes a bad loss is Army. The committee has not historically punished teams for one bad loss. I don't see any way they are left out.
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Aside related to above, but not really aimed at what you were talking about Zack. For this thread/Syracuse fans in general:

I think Syracuse has real issues with their current scheduling dynamic and walked a very thin line this season to get into the field. My suggestion for this staff is to trim the schedule. Keep Hobart because of the rivalry, but drop the other multiple "useless" games like Vermont/Manhattan/High Point/etc that have very little chance of helping you and instead add a serious to above average opponent - someone like Georgetown, Rutgers, or Villanova - in their place. 13 regular season games. This is the calculus for consistent bid success if you finish even above .500. Check Hopkins and Maryland schedules this season. There is no filler. Brown is pretty bad in terms of RPI impact for Maryland, but I promise Tillman didn't expect them to be 2-8 when he scheduled them.

Syracuse will finish with a good SOS rating, because only the top 10 games count, but that's not really the point. The top 2/3 of Syracuse's schedule is fine. It's the bottom 1/3 that is not. Syracuse is going to be really thin in terms of top 20 wins at the end of the season unless they catch on fire to end the season. This is why there is still a feeling of uncertainty/uneasiness among some here/elsewhere regarding their status as a lock for an at-large bid. I disagree with this uneasiness, but I think this is where it is coming from.

 

[Zack80]

Absolutely, they can. But then Denver needs an at-large and unless they slip up twice in their remaining three games against non-T20 type teams... they're (Denver) a lock for that too. So there would be one fewer at-large bid available.

Unless you're constructing a scenario where:
Georgetown wins the Big East AQ *and* the bottom absolutely falls out for Penn State somehow.

I don't see a world where Georgetown is in the NCAA tournament and the Ivy League is a 3 bid league because PSU has relevant head to heads over whichever of either of Cornell/Yale they'd be compared to for the bubble.

If Georgetown wins the Big East AQ, it will be either an Ivy League team or Penn State being squeezed out.

(Syracuse appeared nowhere in this scenario until now.)

Maybe I have a lack of imagination, but I just don't see how this is relevant to Syracuse. They have two top 5 wins. That is an extremely rare feat, those will hold as top 5 wins in all likelihood and at the absolute worst, one of them becomes a top 10 win instead. They will likely finish with an RPI around 6th/7th/8th. The only remote chance that any losses becomes a bad loss is Army. The committee has not historically punished teams for one bad loss. I don't see any way they are left out.

You have stolen a bit of a march on me. As my post was before the results of yesterday's games. Certainly, Duke getting their usual win over UVa and Hopkins eking out an overtime victory over OSU, makes it seem like a sure thing that Duke and Hopkins remain top 5 rpi. Further ND beating Cornell has major ramifications.

So Syracuse could have had just a top 5 and a 6-10 victory. Certainly, Syracuse's other top 20 win, #18 Colgate, looks a little iffy and could drop out of the top 20.

So assuming Syracuse had happened to lose their last 2 games of the season:

Assuming, Denver wins their other games, a loss to Georgetown in the BE final would not hurt Denver's RPI much. Denver would have RPI wins over Hopkins, Cornell, Georgetown, and OSU. Cornell's RPI would have been higher if Cornell had beaten ND. I think Denver gets the nod over Syracuse.

If Cornell had beaten ND, their RPI would be like #7. They would have had wins over ND, Yale, and Syracuse and look like a lock. Yale has wins over Denver, Penn, Harvard, Colgate, Villanova. Penn has wins over Duke, Cornell, Harvard. All I need is the situation that Penn or Yale gets Cornell in the 1st round of the Ivy league tmt and beats them - but the other one of them wins the Ivy league tmt for the AQ - to possibly have gotten all three Ivies in front of Syracuse.

With the Big Ten, I have an AQ to work with also, say for PSU or even Michigan or OSU - then I would just need another good win for UMd or JHU.

Given that Cornell lost to ND. Cornell needs to a good win to be a lock. It is now hard to get three Ivies in front of Syracuse - so I think Syracuse is probably a lock now. Although, I am sure that Syracuse doesn't want to leave it up to the selection committee, and wants to get 1 more victory to make sure they are in.

Of course, UVa has just 1 top 10 victory (UMd) and a loss to Syracuse could put UVa in the hot seat.

 

[cuselaxss26]

yea i agree if colgate or delaware stayed in top 20 they be 2 decent wins but looks like they won’t stay or barely keep there. So def feel cuse needs a uva win n if did beat uva then i think their def a lock n get a seed. If cuse loses to uva n wins 1 acc game think their lock. pretty much feel cuse has to win 1 of their next 2 games to be lock no matter what. If they lose out surely will be considered but won’t exactly know till seclusion night if make it or not. If they can play their best lax now n bury shots no lame turnovers or mistakes they can prob get one on uva. But uva will be hungry after losing to duke again.

 

[JeremyCuse]

yea i agree if colgate or delaware stayed in top 20 they be 2 decent wins but looks like they won’t stay or barely keep there. So def feel cuse needs a uva win n if did beat uva then i think their def a lock n get a seed. If cuse loses to uva n wins 1 acc game think their lock. pretty much feel cuse has to win 1 of their next 2 games to be lock no matter what. If they lose out surely will be considered but won’t exactly know till seclusion night if make it or not. If they can play their best lax now n bury shots no lame turnovers or mistakes they can prob get one on uva. But uva will be hungry after losing to duke again.

A lot to still play out yet. Certainly High Point and Vermont have had down years versus what they have had the last 2-3 years but both could still win their conference tournaments (Vermont just upset Bryant) and though Utah is playing the dregs of their conference they have a pretty good shot to with the AQ ditto Delaware.

The big thing for SU is they have 2 top 5 wins and nothing close to a bad loss although that Army loss more depressing each week. SU is also looking at playing either UVA twice (if SU wins Sat) or UVA and Duke in the last two games. RPI and SOS #s will still be very high. Obviously the Cornell loss didn't help but they also appear unlikely to fall apart and will probably win the IVY. It would take an absolute disaster elsewhere for SU not to make the tourney.

 

[nyclax]

syrcuse is in. it would take a disaster of historic proportions for them to miss at this point...lose to uva, lose again in acc tourney, someone other than hop/umd/psu wins b1g, someone other than yale/cornell wins ivy, someone other than denver wins big east. if all of those things happen they could be the first team out. it is possible but i would put the chances at about 1%...

the real question is, will they get a home game? right now they are in a good position for one. but that is far from locked up...if they lose out i could see them having to go on the road in the first round. maybe to penn state or the ivy winner. as of this moment... i would slot them in as the 7 seed hosting yale

 

[fieldystick]

syrcuse is in.


as of this moment... i would slot them in as the 7 seed hosting yale

^ Good man.

I really think many dig themselves too deep in the 1 in 1000+ hypotheticals this time of year. Too much signal noise - just enjoy it and stop worrying.

 

[Zack80]

^ Good man.

I really think many dig themselves too deep in the 1 in 1000+ hypotheticals this time of year. Too much signal noise - just enjoy it and stop worrying.

I agree with you that Syracuse is now probably a lock, but I don't think they were quite there Saturday night or Sunday morning.

It was only 2 years back, when everyone was predicting 3 ACC teams: UVa, Duke and ND - and the selection committee left Duke and ND out and picked 5 Ivy league teams. Were Duke and ND locks then?

 

[JeremyCuse]

I agree with you that Syracuse is now probably a lock, but I don't think they were quite there Saturday night or Sunday morning.

It was only 2 years back, when everyone was predicting 3 ACC teams: UVa, Duke and ND - and the selection committee left Duke and ND out and picked 5 Ivy league teams. Were Duke and ND locks then?

Did Duke or ND have 2 top 5 wins? The ACC was also down overall that year versus 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 7. Not remotely the same

 

[Powellfan]

 

[wgdsr]

Did Duke or ND have 2 top 5 wins? The ACC was also down overall that year versus 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 7. Not remotely the same

the domers had 2 top 6-10 wins, and they were down by the 6. and hell, some at larges didn't even beat tournament teams! one or 2 got in on some #10-20 wins. anything can happen.

 

[Zack80]

Did Duke or ND have 2 top 5 wins? The ACC was also down overall that year versus 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 7. Not remotely the same

There is still some possibility of Hopkins dropping out of the top 5, if they lose to UMd and in the semifinals of the Big Ten tmt.

 

[fieldystick]

NCAA Bracketology: At-Large Pool Seemingly Shrinking

With three weekends to play, there is a clear division between the top 12 teams and everyone else.

www.usalacrosse.com

Stevens:

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Yale

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Maryland vs. Cornell

Towson, Md.

(7) Syracuse vs. Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Harvard, Michigan
Moving in: Albany, Army
Moving out: Bryant, Colgate
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

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I have big issues with Hopkins over Denver, but otherwise broad agreement with my Monday bracket.

 

[Powellfan]

NCAA Bracketology: At-Large Pool Seemingly Shrinking

With three weekends to play, there is a clear division between the top 12 teams and everyone else.

www.usalacrosse.com

Stevens:

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Yale

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Maryland vs. Cornell

Towson, Md.

(7) Syracuse vs. Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Harvard, Michigan
Moving in: Albany, Army
Moving out: Bryant, Colgate
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

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I have big issues with Hopkins over Denver, but otherwise broad agreement with my Monday bracket.

As an SU fan, have to be pretty happy with that bracket. Beat Duke and Hopkins already, lost to Cornell and Maryland by a combined two goals. I would like SU's chances against the Georgetown/Yale/Penn State contingent which seems to be the teams the Orange are most often matched up with. Certainly not an easy road, but don't think anyone has one given how many good teams there are this year.

 

[fieldystick]

Beat Duke and Hopkins already, lost to Cornell and Maryland by a combined two goals. I would like SU's chances against the Georgetown/Yale/Penn State contingent which seems to be the teams the Orange are most often matched up with. Certainly not an easy road, but don't think anyone has one given how many good teams there are this year.

There is a world - one not too different from our own - where Johns Hopkins is 12-0, #1 in the polls, #1 in all the brackets, and the "clear favorite" (I don't think I'd personally believe that, even in this hypothetical world, hence my quotes) to win the national championship.

There is a world - one not too different from our own - where Denver doesn't have miracle 4th quarter comebacks against Hopkins and Cornell and is in a bit of trouble for an at-large right now if they don't ultimately win the Big East AQ.

The actual results are the results, and they matter a lot. I am glad the actual results matter and we don't make brackets based on who we think is good and/or how the games "should have gone."

I say these things about Hopkins and Denver not to woulda-coulda-shoulda these situations, but rather to show that it's fine margins for everyone. I think we are in for a very fun May.

 

[cuselaxss26]

If we don’t start playing full 60mins and offense be their best on 4th rather then worst n limit the poor lame turnovers and mistakes. Really won’t matter who we play it will not go very well. I have trust and faith in this team they can make a run but they have to start the change now with uva. Now is the time to go to next level of play n in each of players to step up more. Same goes for coaching they need to step up their skills as well. I def agree tho will be a very fun and entertaining may.

 

[Gettysbrg10]

I just saw the women lost to BC in OT - they are now 0-3 in overtime the season to tie the men’s squad…

 

[Powellfan]

 

[fieldystick]

Don’t put too much stock in this because it’s my anecdotal feeling that they mislead with these (see: UVA 2022), and laxreference has shown that factoring in the interim committee rankings make his machine learning model perform *worse*

But anyway, here they are.

I still say Hopkins over Denver right now is complete nonsense.

 

[fieldystick]

A heads up ahead of this week's bracket releases:

I think you will see Syracuse seeded anywhere between 2nd and 4th in the upcoming releases by myself, Stevens, and Foy. The likely 2nd-4th group is Duke, Johns Hopkins, and Syracuse in some order.

Terry told me yesterday that he planned to try to put out a bracket on Sunday if he had time, so I am keeping any eye out for that. I have my bracket for tomorrow ready to go already, but I'll release at my normal time on Monday morning.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Now curious and know seeds 1 n 2 are what ya want or can be least resistant path. But what seed besides those would we want to be? I personally rather not see ND unless it’s in final. Grant the field will be loaded with good teams and seems anyone can beat anyone. But where do we wanna land who do we wanna see in first game. Just curious peoples opinions on matter. I kinda would like another crack at cornell while also not wanting to see army in first round. I know depends who wins AQ n all but just talking hypothetical here.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Also would not like to see psu early on.

 

[FloridaCuse]

 

[Powellfan]

A heads up ahead of this week's bracket releases:

I think you will see Syracuse seeded anywhere between 2nd and 4th in the upcoming releases by myself, Stevens, and Foy. The likely 2nd-4th group is Duke, Johns Hopkins, and Syracuse in some order.

Terry told me yesterday that he planned to try to put out a bracket on Sunday if he had time, so I am keeping any eye out for that. I have my bracket for tomorrow ready to go already, but I'll release at my normal time on Monday morning.

This may be impossible to answer, but do you know best/worst case scenario for the Orange? For instance, what might happen if they win both their games in the ACC tournament, vs what happens if they lose their first? I know none of this happens in a vacuum, but I figured with just two weeks left in the season it might be easier to project.

I can’t imagine they would be dinged too much losing to the number 2 team in RPI (Duke, for now). Winning both games might really help, just curious how much? Or winning one but, say losing to Notre Dame again? Hard to believe they could be in play for a one or two seed, but they have an opportunity for a really impressive collection of wins (they already have a bunch). Anyways I’m clearly spiraling now so I’ll stop.