2024 Bracketology / Selection Show

[Zack80]

RPI just updated, and in a way that matters. So I have to redo some stuff in my spreadsheet that otherwise I'd post here in relation to this.

I'd be surprised if the Maryland you present here gets higher than #3 seed, which is obviously still good. It's not totally certain that they would have Hopkins in the seeding though. It could very well be 4th. Or maybe even 5th if Virginia beats ND!

I am afraid "we" (the Big Ten) are about to get our collective doors blown off by the ACC Blatant RPI booster, 2024 edition (TM).

Hopkins is starting from a much stronger position to attack the ACC teams at the top in terms of seeding than Maryland would be.

JHU, RPI: 2nd
T5 wins: 0
T10 wins: 3
T20 wins: 8
1 bad loss

UMCP, RPI: 7th:
T5 wins: 1
T10 wins: 2
T20 wins: 5
No bad losses


Hopkins is the probable consensus #2 seed in the brackets on Monday/Tuesday, sorry Syracuse fans. The numbers have flipped pretty wildly in favor of Hopkins this weekend. Maryland will be probably 6th or 7th seed on Monday/Tuesday.

Hopkins is in a better condition currently, but UMd has more opportunity, that is, if UMd wins the Big Ten tmt over Hopkins, UMd will get a top 5 (JHU) win and top 10 (PSU) win. Whereas if Hopkins wins the Big Ten tmt, they will get a top 20 win (Michigan) and a top 10 win (UMd or PSU).
Of course, UMd has a tougher route to winning the Big Ten tmt.

 

[fieldystick]

Hopkins is in a better condition currently, but UMd has more opportunity, that is, if UMd wins the Big Ten tmt over Hopkins, UMd will get a top 5 (JHU) win and top 10 (PSU) win. Whereas if Hopkins wins the Big Ten tmt, they will get a top 20 win (Michigan) and a top 10 win (UMd or PSU).
Of course, UMd has a tougher route to winning the Big Ten tmt.

I think there is a lot of nuance here that it not totally in Maryland's control, which is how I see the above framed - that Maryland controls their destiny within the context of this discussion.

There are many factors within the ACCT that matter, but in particular, something that catches my eye for this discussion: a lot rides on Virginia and their final RPI. 5th or 6th?

If UVA flips into T5 at the expense of Syracuse - and that's very possible - we're suddenly having a very different discussion.

If you want me to sign off on that Big Ten champion Maryland could "split the ACC teams," I'll take that as in the middle of them - 2 ahead, 2 behind. Sure. Maybe, they could do that if everything falls right. I'll sign up for that as something that I could see happening.

But I would be very surprised if Maryland ends up as the eventual #2 overall seed. I think if that's the level you are expecting for this hypothetical Maryland, you are in all likelihood setting yourself up for disappointment. Why sour a Big Ten championship with that? I think it would be the equivalent of flopping a straight flush in poker. An incredible, nearly unbelievable number of factors that Maryland does not control are going to have to align.

Whereas with Big Ten champion Hopkins, I would not be surprised in the slightest if they end up as the eventual #2 overall seed behind Notre Dame. Maybe it's JHU 3rd depending on how the ACC stuff goes, but I'd be shocked if it's lower than that.

If Virginia beats ND next Friday, buckle up because the ACC is going to be 4 of the top 6 seeds in the end. And it might be 4 of the top 5.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

 

[Zack80]

I think there is a lot of nuance here that it not totally in Maryland's control, which is how I see the above framed - that Maryland controls their destiny within the context of this discussion.

There are many factors within the ACCT that matter, but in particular, something that catches my eye for this discussion: a lot rides on Virginia and their final RPI. 5th or 6th?

If UVA flips into T5 at the expense of Syracuse - and that's very possible - we're suddenly having a very different discussion.

If you want me to sign off on that Big Ten champion Maryland could "split the ACC teams," I'll take that as in the middle of them - 2 ahead, 2 behind. Sure. Maybe, they could do that if everything falls right. I'll sign up for that as something that I could see happening.

But I would be very surprised if Maryland ends up as the eventual #2 overall seed. I think if that's the level you are expecting for this hypothetical Maryland, you are in all likelihood setting yourself up for disappointment. Why sour a Big Ten championship with that? I think it would be the equivalent of flopping a straight flush in poker. An incredible, nearly unbelievable number of factors that Maryland does not control are going to have to align.

Whereas with Big Ten champion Hopkins, I would not be surprised in the slightest if they end up as the eventual #2 overall seed behind Notre Dame. Maybe it's JHU 3rd depending on how the ACC stuff goes, but I'd be shocked if it's lower than that.

If Virginia beats ND next Friday, buckle up because the ACC is going to be 4 of the top 6 seeds in the end. And it might be 4 of the top 5.

If Maryland wins the Big Ten tmt by beating PSU and JHU, it will give it 4 top 10 wins with 2 in the top 5. If Notre Dame then wins the ACC tmt., the most likely result, then you have to consider, who wins in the Syracuse-Duke game. If Syracuse wins they will have 4 top 10 wins with 3 top 5, this beats UMd, but UMd has 3 11-20 wins including #13 Princeton, while Syracuse has no 11-20 wins - this seems like a 50-50 decision for the committee to me. If Duke wins, they will only have 3 top 10 wins, so UMd would be the choice. Further, if UVa wins the ACC tmt, they will only have 3 top 10 wins, so they would probably not get the #2 seed, and you have essentially the somewhat the same situation with Syracuse and Duke, except that UVa would move up to perhaps a top 5 RPI, which might favor Syracuse over UMD for the #2 seed.
If Syracuse or Duke wins the ACC tmt, then they will most likely be the #2 seed. All of this probably leads to a likelihood of about 1 in 30 for UMd to get the #2 seed.

If Hopkins wins the Big Ten tmt, they will have 4 top 10 wins, but no top 5 wins. Hopkins also has a bad loss to Navy. So I think their chances are low of being the #2 seed. Perhaps their best hope would be if Georetown wins and moves into the top 10, giving them a 5th top 10 victory.

At around 1 in 30, it would be a surprise that UMd was the #2 seed.

I think if that's the level you are expecting for this hypothetical Maryland, you are in all likelihood setting yourself up for disappointment. Why sour a Big Ten championship with that?

You might want to take this advice yourself with respect to Hopkins.
Maryland won the NCAA title 2 years ago, and I feel like I still have money on the table from that. I have already assessed that this is a bit of an off year for the Terps - although I hope they can go far.

 

[nyclax]

If Maryland wins the Big Ten tmt by beating PSU and JHU, it will give it 4 top 10 wins with 2 in the top 5. If Notre Dame then wins the ACC tmt., the most likely result, then you have to consider, who wins in the Syracuse-Duke game. If Syracuse wins they will have 4 top 10 wins with 3 top 5, this beats UMd, but UMd has 3 11-20 wins including #13 Princeton, while Syracuse has no 11-20 wins - this seems like a 50-50 decision for the committee to me. If Duke wins, they will only have 3 top 10 wins, so UMd would be the choice. Further, if UVa wins the ACC tmt, they will only have 3 top 10 wins, so they would probably not get the #2 seed, and you have essentially the somewhat the same situation with Syracuse and Duke, except that UVa would move up to perhaps a top 5 RPI, which might favor Syracuse over UMD for the #2 seed.
If Syracuse or Duke wins the ACC tmt, then they will most likely be the #2 seed. All of this probably leads to a likelihood of about 1 in 30 for UMd to get the #2 seed.

If Hopkins wins the Big Ten tmt, they will have 4 top 10 wins, but no top 5 wins. Hopkins also has a bad loss to Navy. So I think their chances are low of being the #2 seed. Perhaps their best hope would be if Georetown wins and moves into the top 10, giving them a 5th top 10 victory.

At around 1 in 30, it would be a surprise that UMd was the #2 seed.


You might want to take this advice yourself with respect to Hopkins.
Maryland won the NCAA title 2 years ago, and I feel like I still have money on the table from that. I have already assessed that this is a bit of an off year for the Terps - although I hope they can go far.

fieldy is a bracketology expert who spends hours poring over the data and you're the guy who said eric malever wasn't going to lose a step based on a video of an indoor workout he did over the summer. how many points did he have last week?

maybe let the pros do their thing, not everyone is out to get maryland all the time

 

[FloridaCuse]

Current FanDuel odds for the National Championship:

Notre Dame +240
Duke +500
Syracuse +600
Hopkins +650
Cornell +950
Virginia +1000
Penn St. +1200
Maryland +1400
Denver +2500
Yale +2500
Georgetown +3000
Army +4000
Penn +8000
St. Joseph's +15000
BU +15000
Towson +15000
Richmone +15000
Michigan +15000
Utah +15000

 

[FloridaCuse]

LAXMATH Probability to Win National Championship (based on their Power Rating)
[List of Probabilities for MEN D1]

Notre Dame 16%
Syracuse 11.5%
Virginia 10.5%
Maryland 8%
Duke 7%
Hopkins 7%
Georgetown 4%
Penn St 4%
Yale 4%
Cornell 3%
Denver 3%
Princeton 2%
Richmond 2%
Army 1.5%
Michigan 1.5%
St. Joe's 1.5%

 

[Zack80]

fieldy is a bracketology expert who spends hours poring over the data and you're the guy who said eric malever wasn't going to lose a step based on a video of an indoor workout he did over the summer. how many points did he have last week?

maybe let the pros do their thing, not everyone is out to get maryland all the time

I don't know that these two things are related. Malever has started every game for the Terps.

In the end, my main difference with fieldystick is his analysis of the chances for Maryland to be the #2 seed.

He was the one who started attacking me as a Maryland fan with his line:

I think if that's the level you are expecting for this hypothetical Maryland, you are in all likelihood setting yourself up for disappointment. Why sour a Big Ten championship with that?

I only responded in kind.

 

[fieldystick]

Current FanDuel odds for the National Championship:

Notre Dame +240
Duke +500
Syracuse +600
Hopkins +650
Cornell +950
Virginia +1000
Penn St. +1200
Maryland +1400
Denver +2500
Yale +2500
Georgetown +3000
Army +4000
Penn +8000
St. Joseph's +15000
BU +15000
Towson +15000
Richmone +15000
Michigan +15000
Utah +15000

At those odds, I’d bet UVA. I think they’re way undervalued. I assume because of their current losing streak.

 

[Powellfan]

I'd much rather be the fourth seed in this scenario, playing Notre Dame in the final four notwithstanding.

 

[fieldystick]

I'd much rather be the fourth seed in this scenario, playing Notre Dame in the final four notwithstanding.

Everybody wants to be in that Denver quadrant for some reason. Hmm...

I'm about to make a couple more posts. I'm splitting them not to try to flood the thread here but rather to keep them as something more comprehensible.

An explanation post of some stuff in the above first. And then some thoughts/predictions/etc in the second I guess.

 

[nyclax]

so annoying that denver is going to luck out with an easier first round matchup due to geography... it really should be utah at hopkins and army at denver, but that adds a flight...

hoping for whatever combo of results this weekend knocks denver down to the 7 seed which is low enough that i dont think the committee can justify still sending utah there. 6 would be iffy...5 or lower they are definitely getting utah or air force

jacksonville can be heroes and win the ASUN which would throw a wrench into all of this. at that point they prob do something like send jax to duke, towson to hop, and st joes to denver...still an easier matchup than denver deserves but better than an ASUN team

 

[fieldystick]

On the topic of Hopkins and Syracuse:

Last week we had for 2nd-4th seed:
T5/T10/T20, RPI/SOS, *note
Duke: 1/2/5, 1st/6th
Hopkins: 0/3/7, 3rd/4th, *1 bad loss
Syracuse: 2/3/4, 5th/2nd

And I came out of this with 2) Syracuse, 3) Duke, 4) Hopkins

Now we have for 2nd/3rd seed:
T5/T10/T20, RPI/SOS, *note
Hopkins: 0/3/8, 2nd/3rd, *1 bad loss
Syracuse: 2/3/3, 4th/5th

Hopkins just has too much in my opinion. Syracuse has the better wins and the head-to-head but is once again looking really thin overall. Losing Colgate in the top 20 and gaining Towson was what swung me here. This debate between these two actually went all the way to the final game result on Saturday which moved OSU back into the RPI T20 at the expense of UNC. That was when I finally decided it was just too overwhelming in favor of Hopkins for the head-to-head result to matter.
-

Other than the 2/3 stuff, I think the top 5 seeds are all very straightforward and are essentially locked as some kind of seeds in the end.
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On the topic of the last few seeds:

6-8 is the part of the bracket that I think is most up for debate right now. Maryland and Cornell have had basically identical wins and losses for a month now and are functioning as a pair. Maryland has better RPI/SOS and has consistently been ahead of Cornell because of this, but they are moving in lock step. The comp that matters here is Virginia/Cornell. If Virginia evals ahead of Cornell, they also have to be ahead of Cornell's twin (Maryland)... because 1) they look nearly identical to Cornell and 2) to what very small extent Maryland does look better than Cornell, that is surely overridden by Virginia having head-to-head over Maryland but not Cornell.

So last week, the relevant comp here was:
T5/T10/T20, RPI/SOS
Cornell: 1/2/5, 8th/5th
Virginia: 0/1/4, 6th/7th

And now it's:
T5/T10/T20, RPI/SOS
Cornell: 1/2/5, 9th/6th
Virginia: 0/1/5, 6th/2nd

It's tight. I think this could still go either way, but Towson moving back into the RPI top 20 also flipped this for me. And hence also moved Virginia back ahead of Maryland.
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On the topic of why Syracuse got Army:

The natural seeding of this bracket 9-16 goes:
9) PSU, 10) Yale, 11) Georgetown, 12) Army, 13) Towson, 14) St. Joe's, 15) Utah, 16) Play-in

So it should be Army @ #5.

#5 is Denver and has to draw Utah right now to avoid 3 flights.

So what about Army @ #4 Duke? Flight.

Army @ #3 seems rough, but it's the only thing I can do to avoid 3 flights right now - except send them to #2, which is even more crazy seeming.

 

[fieldystick]

so annoying that denver is going to luck out with an easier first round matchup due to geography... it really should be utah at hopkins and army at denver, but that adds a flight...

hoping for whatever combo of results this weekend knocks denver down to the 7 seed which is low enough that i dont think the committee can justify still sending utah there. 6 would be iffy...5 or lower they are definitely getting utah or air force

jacksonville can be heroes and win the ASUN which would throw a wrench into all of this

If Denver falls to 6, I think that's the tipping point for springing for a third flight.

If it's Jacksonville as ASUN AQ, I'm not so sure that it's not still Jacksonville @ #5 Denver

Jacksonville is a flight to anywhere (even Duke) and Denver is a flight for everyone. It's the "logical" pairing.

"Logical" because... well... have you looked at a map? Florida and Colorado are basically next door neighbors and all.

 

[fieldystick]

On the topic of upcoming bracketology posts (from others):

Stevens has been posting weekly also, and I think I have a pretty firm grasp on his logic.

I think the most likely flips from what I have are 3/4 (Duke over Cuse) and 8/9 (PSU over Cornell). I would go with that this is his most likely order, the one containing these flips, so:

1) Notre Dame, 2) Hopkins, 3) Duke, 4) Syracuse, 5) Denver, 6) Virginia, 7) Maryland, 8) Penn State then,
Cornell, Yale, Georgetown // Penn, Princeton, Michigan

I'm not trying to speak for him obviously. But that's what I think the thread of logic he's been following most likely gives us.
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Foy/IL has not been posting frequently enough this season for me to even pretend that I have any idea what they'll do. With that said, I don't think there's a ton of stuff really up for debate right now, so expect similar to my bracket and/or what I expect from Stevens (above).
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On the topic of... is this stuff really just straight RPI after all? :

Many of you know that I drone on and on about how I don't think this stuff is straight RPI and then my bracket today looks like it's almost completely straight RPI. It's just how it is right now. There is a high degree of correlation between the current order:current own RPI. I did team by team evals just like I always do, and it just turns out it's super correlated to own RPI currently.
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Many of you probably already know that this is the busiest week of the season for me, but I will try to pop in now and then to answer questions/concerns that anyone may have.

 

[upperdeck]

The ivy really is in flux

Yale in Princeton out.
Cornell safe Penn out

Penn/Princ could both win and then what happens

One then gets the auto bid. Cornell is ahead of Yale But then Penn will have beaten Cornell twice

If Princ wins then does Cornell stay ahead of Penn
If Penn wins does Cornell stay ahead of Princ

If Penn/Yale win and Yale wins the Auto
does Penn get past Cornell with the 2 wins?

If Penn beats Yale then Cornell probably gets in over Yale

and this is as long as no upset in the BE or B10

 

[fieldystick]

Penn/Princ could both win and then what happens

This is the messiest final scenario by far. It will likely be the non-AQ Ivy League teams + non-AQ Georgetown for 2 spots. If Georgetown wins the BET, it becomes the non-AQ Ivies for 1 spot.

It's boring to say, but I think we have to wait for the final numbers to call it with any degree of certainty. I would lean Cornell is probably in still, but hard to say 100% right now. And if there's another spot to split between Yale/(Princeton/Penn loser)/Georgetown... will depend on the numbers.

Princeton is in a weird situation where their absolutely ideal non-AQ scenario for them is that Yale finishes 10th in RPI and Princeton 11th. I think that end result is better for them than Princeton 10th, Yale 11th. Princeton would have no top 10 wins with Princeton 10th, Yale 11th, and it would make them very vulnerable to either of the other likely bubble teams.

and this is as long as no upset in the BE or B10

The only true potential bid steal/bubble shrinkage from this year comes from Providence/Villanova winning the Big East.

The ones that most would point to elsewhere: Princeton or Michigan... I actually think they'd be in the field anyway even without the AQ. What I mean by that: if the NCAA stripped the Big Ten or Ivy League AQs, the wins that Princeton/Michigan earned along the way to winning their now non-AQ conference championships would put them in as at-larges. I think this was the case for Michigan last year too.

 

[PhatOrange]

Just win. Beat Duke. Beat ND. #1 seed.

 

[fieldystick]

Just win. Beat Duke. Beat ND. #1 seed.

The sentiment of "just win": agreed

But on the bolded part: extremely, extremely doubtful, in my opinion. I think that scenario above might yield Syracuse #2 but even that depends on what Hopkins does. It would be close between ACC champion Syracuse and Big Ten champion Hopkins for 2/3 here.

I think Hopkins has the best chance at somehow unseating Notre Dame for #1, and I'd put even that at... 1%, maybe?

 

[Hoo's That]

so annoying that denver is going to luck out with an easier first round matchup due to geography... it really should be utah at hopkins and army at denver, but that adds a flight...

hoping for whatever combo of results this weekend knocks denver down to the 7 seed which is low enough that i dont think the committee can justify still sending utah there. 6 would be iffy...5 or lower they are definitely getting utah or air force

jacksonville can be heroes and win the ASUN which would throw a wrench into all of this. at that point they prob do something like send jax to duke, towson to hop, and st joes to denver...still an easier matchup than denver deserves but better than an ASUN team

Identical sentiment expressed on our board.

 

[nyclax]

yale-princeton on friday is an elimination game

princeton loses they're out. yale loses and suddenly princeton has two head to head wins and takes their spot. i dont think yale's resume is better enough than princeton's to overcome two h2h losses

you could make a similar argument for penn over cornell if penn wins the upcoming matchup (they'd have two h2h wins) but there's a wider gap between cornell and penn that the big red might be able to survive it still

long story short i do not want to be the ivy semifinal losers. especially if georgetown wins the big east

it looked for awhile like there wasnt going to be much of a bubble but we are prob one or two specific results away from a lot of weirdness

 

[fieldystick]

yale-princeton on friday is an elimination game

princeton loses they're out. yale loses and suddenly princeton has two head to head wins and takes their spot. i dont think yale's resume is better enough than princeton's to overcome two h2h losses

Maybe not. But if Cornell wins the AQ in the end and Denver wins the Big East:

Is non-AQ Georgetown ahead of Yale?

I would not call this an elimination game, but if Yale loses they are not in a strong position. If Princeton loses, they are definitely done.

For sure/extremely likely at-larges here:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Duke
Virginia
2 of: Hopkins/Maryland/Penn State

Which leaves 2 spots for:
Georgetown, Princeton, Yale

I don't think it's clear that Georgetown is ahead of Yale to eliminate them.

 

[upperdeck]

Cornell its win and In
Yale its win and feel pretty good

anything else is who knows.

 

[nyclax]

Maybe not. But if Cornell wins the AQ in the end and Denver wins the Big East:

Is non-AQ Georgetown ahead of Yale?

I would not call this an elimination game, but if Yale loses they are not in a strong position. If Princeton loses, they are definitely done.

For sure/extremely likely at-larges here:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Duke
Virginia
2 of: Hopkins/Maryland/Penn State

Which leaves 2 spots for:
Georgetown, Princeton, Yale

I don't think it's clear that Georgetown is ahead of Yale to eliminate them.

if loyola falls out of the top 20 and gives gtown a bad loss then yeah yale prob gets in over them. as things are now in this scenario with cornell and denver winning out it will be really close. gtown prob ends up a spot ahead in the rpi but with one fewer top 20 win. i believe the optics of being "the only team to beat notre dame" (assuming that remains true) will put gtown over the top. the committee is not above that

 

[Powellfan]

I don't remember the selection show ever being quite that late. Usually it's at 9pm I thought? With the late start to the ACC semifinal, I better upgrade my nap schedule for the weekend.