2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

SDSU is not having a great year by their standards but their resume is a lot better than NC, who has had chance after chance to play their way in and have failed. I am a biased SDSU alum dad I know, and I think the Aztecs will get bounced out early but they deserve a bid, UNC doesn’t

In the sake of clarity, I never once claimed that UNC should get in over SD St, or that UNC should get in the tournament, or that after scrubbing through UNC/SD St that there was a hard decision.

I never even compared them directly before Poppy's wrongfully insinuated I was equating the two as the same level of team. I had them on a list of close or "not locked" based on the matrix, and I was in the process of scrubbing them.

I was seeing UNC getting considerable consideration on the matrix trying to figure out what their justification could be against the others. In the end their Q1 record is deceptive because its top heavy, but you still need to win some games and they had 6 more reasonable Q1 games where they only went 1-5.

 

[jncuse]

A tough 12 which if history tells us anything, coincidentally draws the toughest possible 5 by a mile.

Based on the current matrix, the current #12 line, based on KP is.
#36 UCSD, #42 Colorado St, #59 McNeese, #62 Liberty.
I think they all could be dangerous, but UCSD would not be my preference as a 5 seed.

Maybe I just haven't watched enough college basketball this year, but there are not 5's that jump out as me as way harder than the others... (Per Matrix - Michigan, Clemson, Oregon, Ole Miss).

UCSD will almost certainly be playing in Seattle or Wichita as they will house the 4 seeds, and it could be any of those teams. Perhaps they try to do an Oregon-UCSD matchup in Seattle.

 

[jncuse]

Today's 2 Key Games - both could be big nuisances for the committee, more so if VCU loses.

1:00 VCU vs George Mason
If VCU loses it really complicates things. I'm sure they are quietly cheering for VCU.

I don't think VCU is guaranteed to steal an at large spot, but they immediately jump into the conversation with the other 5 for an at-large. Have they already dedicated full time to that discussion?

So it would be 6 teams for 2 spots (SD St in)
Texas
Indiana
VCU
Xavier
UNC
Boise St

3:15 Memphis vs UAB - What if Memphis loses.
#1. The 3:15 start really complicates things.
It becomes more of a bracketing mess if Memphis loses. I'm sure they will work on a contingency bracket during that game... they might make it easy for themselves by putting Memphis in a play in game to replace the at large that gets knocked out. That wouldn't seem fair, but the committee if often lazy with the late game results.

 

[swish7]

Ivy League championship is a fun game

 

[jncuse]

Who are the #1 seeds? I guess the question is does Tennessee jump Florida for the #1 seed if they win today. They would be SEC Champion and would be 2-1 vs Florida. I think the answer is still no, based on overall body of work:

If Tennessee wins:
#1) Tenn is 4-2 vs (Flor, Aub, Alab)
Florida is 4-2 vs (Tenn, Aub, Alab)
So all square in that regards.

#2) But Tennessee would have one more SEC loss than Florida.
That's not irrelevant when its about "body of work".
Advantage Florida

#3) Tennessee beat Florida head to head 2 to 1.
Back to all square

#4) Tennessee won at Illinois and at Louisville in OOC. Florida doesn't have a signature win in OOC.
This puts Tennessee in front for me.

I would have to go with Tennessee as the #1 if they win the SEC.

 

[jncuse]

There was so many games between teams on the top 2 seed lines this year (and adding Texas Tech and Kentucky to round out the top 10)

For the 5 teams being considered for a #1 seed, here is the records vs those teams.

Duke: 1-1 (beat Auburn OOC)
Houston: 1-3
Auburn : 4-4 (Beat Houston OOC)
Florida: 5-2 (assuming they hold today), 4-3 if they lose
Tennessee: 3-5 (if they lose), 4-4 if they win.

Is Houston a clear #1 seed, if Tennessee wins today?

Finding the overall #1, or even ranking the teams is not easy.
An argument can be made for Florida if they win today for overall #1, although their OOC didn't have signature wins like Duke or Auburn.

 

[djcon57]

I haven't followed anything super close this year for obvious reasons but looking at the mock brackets today and everyone has Bama at 2 in the East and St John's 2 in the West

How the hell does the 30-4 Big East champions not have a chance to play in Newark?

 

[jncuse]

I'm going to assume Florida wins. (It's so tough to rank the #1 seeds)

#1) Florida
#2) Duke
#3) Auburn
#4) Houston
#5) Alabama
#6) Tennessee
#7) Michigan St
#8) St John's
#9) Wisconsin
#10) Texas Tech
#11) Kentucky
#12) Maryland
#13) Iowa St
#14) Texas A&M
#15) Arizona
#16) Michigan

If you want to see St. John's in Newark:
The way bracketing works now (as I understand) it would be better that they are ranked #9 (the top #3 seed would guarantee they play in Newark), #8 is far less uncertain, because they get last dibs on the location on the 2 seed line.

The best case scenario today might be Wisconsin winning and jumping into #8 -- but I'm also thinking the committee is not to keen on late changes... so they might just lock Wisconsin at #9 and Michigan at #16, and call it a day no matter who wins.

 

[PoppyHart]

In the sake of clarity, I never once claimed that UNC should get in over SD St, or that UNC should get in the tournament, or that after scrubbing through UNC/SD St that there was a hard decision.

I never even compared them directly before Poppy's wrongfully insinuated I was equating the two as the same level of team. I had them on a list of close or "not locked" based on the matrix, and I was in the process of scrubbing them.

I was seeing UNC getting considerable consideration on the matrix trying to figure out what their justification could be against the others. In the end their Q1 record is deceptive because its top heavy, but you still need to win some games and they had 6 more reasonable Q1 games where they only went 1-5.

Wrongfully insinuated? Check out your post at 8:37 am yesterday (Saturday). You called it a 5 for 3 scenario. Hence, you were indeed equating them at the same level. Put another way, if you not equating them at the same level, it would be 4 for 2.

 

[djcon57]

I'm going to assume Florida wins. (It's so tough to rank the #1 seeds)

#1) Florida
#2) Duke
#3) Auburn
#4) Houston
#5) Alabama
#6) Tennessee
#7) Michigan St
#8) St John's
#9) Wisconsin
#10) Texas Tech
#11) Kentucky
#12) Maryland
#13) Iowa St
#14) Texas A&M
#15) Arizona
#16) Michigan

If you want to see St. John's in Newark:
The way bracketing works now (as I understand) it would be better that they are ranked #9 (the top #3 seed would guarantee they play in Newark), #8 is far less uncertain, because they get last dibs on the location on the 2 seed line.

The best case scenario today might be Wisconsin winning and jumping into #8 -- but I'm also thinking the committee is not to keen on late changes... so they might just lock Wisconsin at #9 and Michigan at #16, and call it a day no matter who wins.

Makes sense...Similar to the year we played in Albany

 

[djorange1989]

In the sake of clarity, I never once claimed that UNC should get in over SD St, or that UNC should get in the tournament, or that after scrubbing through UNC/SD St that there was a hard decision.

I never even compared them directly before Poppy's wrongfully insinuated I was equating the two as the same level of team. I had them on a list of close or "not locked" based on the matrix, and I was in the process of scrubbing them.

I was seeing UNC getting considerable consideration on the matrix trying to figure out what their justification could be against the others. In the end their Q1 record is deceptive because its top heavy, but you still need to win some games and they had 6 more reasonable Q1 games where they only went 1-5.

Yeah sorry I knew you weren’t I was just making a general point on those two and used your post to reply to!

 

[jncuse]

Wrongfully insinuated? Check out your post at 8:37 am yesterday (Saturday). You called it a 5 for 3 scenario. Hence, you were indeed equating them at the same level. Put another way, if you not equating them at the same level, it would be 4 for 2.

That post was a 100% non subjective list based purely on the matrix. Why don't you look at post #40 posted 4 minutes before post #41 - its the exact same list and rank. That list was based on teams the matrix members still had uncertainty or lack of consensus on and was ranked in the order. Its the way I always have always listed teams on this entire thread up to that point. The matrix list is never my firm ranking, but its a good objective guide until I decide to dig in myself.

I use the matrix, as its helpful
a) To identify bubble teams to watch for games that day.
b) To generate discussion

But let's look at the post you quoted
I analyzed UNC's worst aspect -- their 1-12 Q1 record, and dug into it. I never discussed them vis a vis San Diego St, or said UNC should be in, or were equals to SD St in my view. Heck, I don't think I even mentioned San Diego St in that post. I just tried to rationalize why some still had UNC despite that gaudy 1-12 mark.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah sorry I knew you weren’t I was just making a general point on those two and used your post to reply to!

Probably should have not quoted your post either, so my bad.

 

[jncuse]

VCU wins. Sigh of relief from the committee I would imagine, as that is not a team they wanted to deal with as an at large contender (in general) and especially at this point.

 

[Knicks411]

Fwiw, Texas was +470 to make the tournament on Fanduel, so I bet it this morning. I was then catching up on this thread, and was going to mention that fact here, but when I went to check again, they are now +195. (going to go ahead and guess my $35 bet on Texas did not move the line)

 

[bpo57]

There was so many games between teams on the top 2 seed lines this year (and adding Texas Tech and Kentucky to round out the top 10)

For the 5 teams being considered for a #1 seed, here is the records vs those teams.

Duke: 1-1 (beat Auburn OOC)
Houston: 1-3
Auburn : 4-4 (Beat Houston OOC)
Florida: 5-2 (assuming they hold today), 4-3 if they lose
Tennessee: 3-5 (if they lose), 4-4 if they win.

Is Houston a clear #1 seed, if Tennessee wins today?

Finding the overall #1, or even ranking the teams is not easy.
An argument can be made for Florida if they win today for overall #1, although their OOC didn't have signature wins like Duke or Auburn.

Thx for your work here. Appreciate it.

I think Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are #1 seeds. Auburn will be the overall #1 seed although that is insignificant imo. Auburn has 42,000 Quad One wins this year. If they're not the #1 seed then I don't want to hear about the quad system anymore. Unfortunately for the Tigers I think they peaked a month ago.

Tennessee and Alabama will be on the 2 line in the same bracket with Duke and Houston.

I like Florida to win it all. Not overreacting to this weekend. Have felt that way for a while now. They're killin' people.