2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

I don't understand how the Matrix can have Memphis as an 8 seed. 29-5, won 16 of their last 17 games and have non-con wins over Missouri, Michigan State, Ole Miss, UConn and Clemson. I know they play in a weak league but an 8 seed would be absurd.

I had them as a 10 (which I don't agree with the 10 BTW) but apparently the committee said they are relying on Predictive analytics much more for seeding. Memphis KP is 52... in part because they struggled to dominate teams in their conference.

 

[bpo57]

Some points from my bracket
- I ended up with Florida as my overall #1 seed. It was very tight between #1 and #3, ask me tomorrow I may change my mind on the entire order. The main reason I went with Florida over Auburn is they were 5-2 in elite games (1 and 2 seeds) vs 4-4. They won the SEC title which I know is just another game, so let's just consider that as part of the 5-2 advantage. They won at Auburn. And they ended up with the same overall record as Auburn.

The equalizer for Auburn is 16Q1 vs 11Q1. But Auburn also lost to Florida and Duke, which makes it difficult to place them over both of them,

- I know some of you want to see St. John's in Newark. But as long as they were #7 or #8 (behind Tennessee and Alabama), and the way bracketing is apparently supposed to work, I couldn't get them there. If they had been #9 they would have been the #3 seed in Newark, but I don't see who the committee would put above them

- I took ar inj, comment yesterday regarding using analytics for seeding in mind -- I think its something they have moved to a bit in the past. For that reason I have
Gonzaga as a 5 instead of a 7 per the BM
Oregon as a 7 instead of a 5 per the BM
Memphis as a 10 instead of an 8
UC San Diego as a 12 instead of a 10

- Also have Kentucky/Louisville as a 3/6 matchup. Typically against the rules for a rematch in round of 32, unless they have no workaround... it was either an SEC re-match or Louisville, and I think the NCAA will find a way to picks its spot here.

- West Virginia, Indiana, Texas and San Diego St are my last 4 in.

- If I had to guess what I could be wrong be about, it will be Xavier over Texas. Xavier had 1 Q1 win, but UConn and Creighton are very close to Q1.

I would like it if UF were an overall 1 seed cuz that would mean the Committee heavily weighed the results down the stretch. However, for forever and a day they've told us they don't do it that way.

 

[bpo57]

I had them as a 10 (which I don't agree with the 10 BTW) but apparently the committee said they are relying on Predictive analytics much more for seeding. Memphis KP is 52... in part because they struggled to dominate teams in their conference.

Yeah they just win. But the non-con wins shouldn't be dismissed.

 

[bpo57]

In the past they would have separated them as they tried to balance the brackets, and separated them, But in recent years, its about location with first team on that seed line getting first dibs. I guess we will find out this year what they are doing.

But here was I how I pieced the puzzle:

The #5 team on my list was Alabama. As the #3 SEC team they are now allowed to play in Indy or Atlanta (as Florida and Auburn are already there),,. so Newark it was for them.

The #6 team was Tennessee. Since they were the #4 SEC team, they can now be placed anywhere that is the closest. And that was Atlanta. (If I had Tennessee at #5, the two teams would have just flipped)

I would think Mr. Sankey would not approve of FLA and TENN being in the same region. I assume he must sign off on all brackets before finalized.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah they just win. But the non-con wins shouldn't be dismissed.

As always the struggle when looking at these things is guessing what they will do instead of what seems more fair.

 

[jncuse]

I would like it if UF were an overall 1 seed cuz that would mean the Committee heavily weighed the results down the stretch. However, for forever and a day they've told us they don't do it that way.

Their OOC was sort of blah compared to the others... they did nothing wrong, won every game, beat 5 P5 schools, but also didn't have the same level of challenges like Tenn, Auburn, Alabama. They faced a lot of teams on down cycles.

 

[bpo57]

Their OOC was sort of blah compared to the others... they did nothing wrong, won every game, beat 5 P5 schools, but also didn't have the same level of challenges like Tenn, Auburn, Alabama. They faced a lot of teams on down cycles.

And that's why I think Auburn will be the overall # 1 seed. They played the toughest schedule and were #1 in nearly every metric until the very end of the season. Btw has anybody ever been able to figure out the benefit of being the overall #1 seed? Seems extremely marginal at best.

 

[phil77]

Louisville 8 seed is a little crazy to be honest.

 

[phil77]

Michigan 5 seed for BIG 10 champ is crazy as well

 

[phil77]

North Carolina got in

 

[jncuse]

And that's why I think Auburn will be the overall # 1 seed. They played the toughest schedule and were #1 in nearly every metric until the very end of the season. Btw has anybody ever been able to figure out the benefit of being the overall #1 seed? Seems extremely marginal at best.

You get the choice of the closest regional. Other then that not too much.

 

[Eric15]

Bryant seems to be doing much better after canning that nutjob.

 

[Eric15]

North Carolina got in

That wind you felt was the exhale from that guy who had the lane violation.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Bryant seems to be doing much better after canning that nutjob.

Phil Martelli’s son is the coach.

 

[kingtidge]

North Carolina got in

We'd never get in with that resume.

 

[kingtidge]

Vandy in as well.

There gonna be bubble butthurt

 

[jncuse]

Might come down to team #14 out of the SEC, or team #9 out of the BIG.

 

[jncuse]

If I was to pick one team that everybody has in that shouldn't feel secure it is West Virginia. Remember from my posts earlier in the OOC season when B12 realy benefited from "NET"flation. There scheduling was no different than others, but they found a way to dominate Q4 just as good as the best, but did much worse in quality games.

I'm starting to ponder whether my list above should be 6 for 4 spots, rather than 5 for 3.

Q1: 6-9
Q2 : 4-4
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0

The Q1 wins on the surface look great. N#8, #10, N#12, A#20. A#49, A#72... but in realty those are projected to be in terms of seeds -- #3, #4, #7, #7, Out, Out. So not as good.

More importantly is losses to a 13-19 ASU team and a 14-20 Colorado team. Those are Q3 losses disguised by NET.

Of course I need to line that up against others. Maybe they deserve it, but its not clear cut.

I got a lot of things wrong, but I did correctly point out there was a stench around West Virginia that should make them wary. that seemingly 100% on the Matrix were overlooking.

 

[elimunelson]

Godfather 4 may happen in providence this weekend: Calipari vs Pitino

 

[JaySU22]

It’s funny that unc’s AD is head of the committee and they get last spot. But honestly lots of mediocrity on the cut line so can’t get too mad about it.

 

[jncuse]

The ACC got the surprise last spot last year as well with Virginia. (23 out of 217 per the Matrix).
The biggest surprise out was Oklahoma, a B12 team at the time. (149 of 217)

ACC can't say they have been mistreated the last few years.

 

[kingtidge]

It’s funny that unc’s AD is head of the committee and they get last spot. But honestly lots of mediocrity on the cut line so can’t get too mad about it.

I just wonder how he pulled it off.

You know the SEC folks were like, "we need 15"...

 

[llandz]

For the first time in year, I did not watch. Going to a bracket party on Tuesday, but not filling out my bracket for 2 groups I traditionally join. I'm just not into it. I will watch the first rounds, because those upsets and watching those players who pull off the upsets are a feel good moment, no matter what.