2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

SDSU is not having a great year by their standards but their resume is a lot better than NC, who has had chance after chance to play their way in and have failed. I am a biased SDSU alum dad I know, and I think the Aztecs will get bounced out early but they deserve a bid, UNC doesn’t

In the sake of clarity, I never once claimed that UNC should get in over SD St, or that UNC should get in the tournament, or that after scrubbing through UNC/SD St that there was a hard decision.

I never even compared them directly before Poppy's wrongfully insinuated I was equating the two as the same level of team. I had them on a list of close or "not locked" based on the matrix, and I was in the process of scrubbing them.

I was seeing UNC getting considerable consideration on the matrix trying to figure out what their justification could be against the others. In the end their Q1 record is deceptive because its top heavy, but you still need to win some games and they had 6 more reasonable Q1 games where they only went 1-5.

 

[jncuse]

A tough 12 which if history tells us anything, coincidentally draws the toughest possible 5 by a mile.

Based on the current matrix, the current #12 line, based on KP is.
#36 UCSD, #42 Colorado St, #59 McNeese, #62 Liberty.
I think they all could be dangerous, but UCSD would not be my preference as a 5 seed.

Maybe I just haven't watched enough college basketball this year, but there are not 5's that jump out as me as way harder than the others... (Per Matrix - Michigan, Clemson, Oregon, Ole Miss).

UCSD will almost certainly be playing in Seattle or Wichita as they will house the 4 seeds, and it could be any of those teams. Perhaps they try to do an Oregon-UCSD matchup in Seattle.

 

[jncuse]

Today's 2 Key Games - both could be big nuisances for the committee, more so if VCU loses.

1:00 VCU vs George Mason
If VCU loses it really complicates things. I'm sure they are quietly cheering for VCU.

I don't think VCU is guaranteed to steal an at large spot, but they immediately jump into the conversation with the other 5 for an at-large. Have they already dedicated full time to that discussion?

So it would be 6 teams for 2 spots (SD St in)
Texas
Indiana
VCU
Xavier
UNC
Boise St

3:15 Memphis vs UAB - What if Memphis loses.
#1. The 3:15 start really complicates things.
It becomes more of a bracketing mess if Memphis loses. I'm sure they will work on a contingency bracket during that game... they might make it easy for themselves by putting Memphis in a play in game to replace the at large that gets knocked out. That wouldn't seem fair, but the committee if often lazy with the late game results.

 

[swish7]

Ivy League championship is a fun game

 

[jncuse]

Who are the #1 seeds? I guess the question is does Tennessee jump Florida for the #1 seed if they win today. They would be SEC Champion and would be 2-1 vs Florida. I think the answer is still no, based on overall body of work:

If Tennessee wins:
#1) Tenn is 4-2 vs (Flor, Aub, Alab)
Florida is 4-2 vs (Tenn, Aub, Alab)
So all square in that regards.

#2) But Tennessee would have one more SEC loss than Florida.
That's not irrelevant when its about "body of work".
Advantage Florida

#3) Tennessee beat Florida head to head 2 to 1.
Back to all square

#4) Tennessee won at Illinois and at Louisville in OOC. Florida doesn't have a signature win in OOC.
This puts Tennessee in front for me.

I would have to go with Tennessee as the #1 if they win the SEC.

 

[jncuse]

There was so many games between teams on the top 2 seed lines this year (and adding Texas Tech and Kentucky to round out the top 10)

For the 5 teams being considered for a #1 seed, here is the records vs those teams.

Duke: 1-1 (beat Auburn OOC)
Houston: 1-3
Auburn : 4-4 (Beat Houston OOC)
Florida: 5-2 (assuming they hold today), 4-3 if they lose
Tennessee: 3-5 (if they lose), 4-4 if they win.

Is Houston a clear #1 seed, if Tennessee wins today?

Finding the overall #1, or even ranking the teams is not easy.
An argument can be made for Florida if they win today for overall #1, although their OOC didn't have signature wins like Duke or Auburn.

 

[djcon57]

I haven't followed anything super close this year for obvious reasons but looking at the mock brackets today and everyone has Bama at 2 in the East and St John's 2 in the West

How the hell does the 30-4 Big East champions not have a chance to play in Newark?

 

[jncuse]

I'm going to assume Florida wins. (It's so tough to rank the #1 seeds)

#1) Florida
#2) Duke
#3) Auburn
#4) Houston
#5) Alabama
#6) Tennessee
#7) Michigan St
#8) St John's
#9) Wisconsin
#10) Texas Tech
#11) Kentucky
#12) Maryland
#13) Iowa St
#14) Texas A&M
#15) Arizona
#16) Michigan

If you want to see St. John's in Newark:
The way bracketing works now (as I understand) it would be better that they are ranked #9 (the top #3 seed would guarantee they play in Newark), #8 is far less uncertain, because they get last dibs on the location on the 2 seed line.

The best case scenario today might be Wisconsin winning and jumping into #8 -- but I'm also thinking the committee is not to keen on late changes... so they might just lock Wisconsin at #9 and Michigan at #16, and call it a day no matter who wins.

 

[PoppyHart]

In the sake of clarity, I never once claimed that UNC should get in over SD St, or that UNC should get in the tournament, or that after scrubbing through UNC/SD St that there was a hard decision.

I never even compared them directly before Poppy's wrongfully insinuated I was equating the two as the same level of team. I had them on a list of close or "not locked" based on the matrix, and I was in the process of scrubbing them.

I was seeing UNC getting considerable consideration on the matrix trying to figure out what their justification could be against the others. In the end their Q1 record is deceptive because its top heavy, but you still need to win some games and they had 6 more reasonable Q1 games where they only went 1-5.

Wrongfully insinuated? Check out your post at 8:37 am yesterday (Saturday). You called it a 5 for 3 scenario. Hence, you were indeed equating them at the same level. Put another way, if you not equating them at the same level, it would be 4 for 2.

 

[djcon57]

I'm going to assume Florida wins. (It's so tough to rank the #1 seeds)

#1) Florida
#2) Duke
#3) Auburn
#4) Houston
#5) Alabama
#6) Tennessee
#7) Michigan St
#8) St John's
#9) Wisconsin
#10) Texas Tech
#11) Kentucky
#12) Maryland
#13) Iowa St
#14) Texas A&M
#15) Arizona
#16) Michigan

If you want to see St. John's in Newark:
The way bracketing works now (as I understand) it would be better that they are ranked #9 (the top #3 seed would guarantee they play in Newark), #8 is far less uncertain, because they get last dibs on the location on the 2 seed line.

The best case scenario today might be Wisconsin winning and jumping into #8 -- but I'm also thinking the committee is not to keen on late changes... so they might just lock Wisconsin at #9 and Michigan at #16, and call it a day no matter who wins.

Makes sense...Similar to the year we played in Albany

 

[djorange1989]

In the sake of clarity, I never once claimed that UNC should get in over SD St, or that UNC should get in the tournament, or that after scrubbing through UNC/SD St that there was a hard decision.

I never even compared them directly before Poppy's wrongfully insinuated I was equating the two as the same level of team. I had them on a list of close or "not locked" based on the matrix, and I was in the process of scrubbing them.

I was seeing UNC getting considerable consideration on the matrix trying to figure out what their justification could be against the others. In the end their Q1 record is deceptive because its top heavy, but you still need to win some games and they had 6 more reasonable Q1 games where they only went 1-5.

Yeah sorry I knew you weren’t I was just making a general point on those two and used your post to reply to!

 

[jncuse]

Wrongfully insinuated? Check out your post at 8:37 am yesterday (Saturday). You called it a 5 for 3 scenario. Hence, you were indeed equating them at the same level. Put another way, if you not equating them at the same level, it would be 4 for 2.

That post was a 100% non subjective list based purely on the matrix. Why don't you look at post #40 posted 4 minutes before post #41 - its the exact same list and rank. That list was based on teams the matrix members still had uncertainty or lack of consensus on and was ranked in the order. Its the way I always have always listed teams on this entire thread up to that point. The matrix list is never my firm ranking, but its a good objective guide until I decide to dig in myself.

I use the matrix, as its helpful
a) To identify bubble teams to watch for games that day.
b) To generate discussion

But let's look at the post you quoted
I analyzed UNC's worst aspect -- their 1-12 Q1 record, and dug into it. I never discussed them vis a vis San Diego St, or said UNC should be in, or were equals to SD St in my view. Heck, I don't think I even mentioned San Diego St in that post. I just tried to rationalize why some still had UNC despite that gaudy 1-12 mark.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah sorry I knew you weren’t I was just making a general point on those two and used your post to reply to!

Probably should have not quoted your post either, so my bad.

 

[jncuse]

VCU wins. Sigh of relief from the committee I would imagine, as that is not a team they wanted to deal with as an at large contender (in general) and especially at this point.

 

[Knicks411]

Fwiw, Texas was +470 to make the tournament on Fanduel, so I bet it this morning. I was then catching up on this thread, and was going to mention that fact here, but when I went to check again, they are now +195. (going to go ahead and guess my $35 bet on Texas did not move the line)

 

[bpo57]

There was so many games between teams on the top 2 seed lines this year (and adding Texas Tech and Kentucky to round out the top 10)

For the 5 teams being considered for a #1 seed, here is the records vs those teams.

Duke: 1-1 (beat Auburn OOC)
Houston: 1-3
Auburn : 4-4 (Beat Houston OOC)
Florida: 5-2 (assuming they hold today), 4-3 if they lose
Tennessee: 3-5 (if they lose), 4-4 if they win.

Is Houston a clear #1 seed, if Tennessee wins today?

Finding the overall #1, or even ranking the teams is not easy.
An argument can be made for Florida if they win today for overall #1, although their OOC didn't have signature wins like Duke or Auburn.

Thx for your work here. Appreciate it.

I think Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are #1 seeds. Auburn will be the overall #1 seed although that is insignificant imo. Auburn has 42,000 Quad One wins this year. If they're not the #1 seed then I don't want to hear about the quad system anymore. Unfortunately for the Tigers I think they peaked a month ago.

Tennessee and Alabama will be on the 2 line in the same bracket with Duke and Houston.

I like Florida to win it all. Not overreacting to this weekend. Have felt that way for a while now. They're killin' people.

 

[jncuse]

Fwiw, Texas was +470 to make the tournament on Fanduel, so I bet it this morning. I was then catching up on this thread, and was going to mention that fact here, but when I went to check again, they are now +195. (going to go ahead and guess my $35 bet on Texas did not move the line)

Good value bet. I think they are at worse 50/50 right now.
My guess is one of Xavier, Indy or Texas is left out. But 2 of them make it.

 

[jncuse]

I decided to put a bracket together. Its like spending the afternoon working on a puzzle I would think. I never got into typical puzzles - but I'm sure most wouldn't understand this either!

This is my bracket.

 

[jncuse]

Some points from my bracket
- I ended up with Florida as my overall #1 seed. It was very tight between #1 and #3, ask me tomorrow I may change my mind on the entire order. The main reason I went with Florida over Auburn is they were 5-2 in elite games (1 and 2 seeds) vs 4-4. They won the SEC title which I know is just another game, so let's just consider that as part of the 5-2 advantage. They won at Auburn. And they ended up with the same overall record as Auburn.

The equalizer for Auburn is 16Q1 vs 11Q1. But Auburn also lost to Florida and Duke, which makes it difficult to place them over both of them,

- I know some of you want to see St. John's in Newark. But as long as they were #7 or #8 (behind Tennessee and Alabama), and the way bracketing is apparently supposed to work, I couldn't get them there. If they had been #9 they would have been the #3 seed in Newark, but I don't see who the committee would put above them

- I took ar inj, comment yesterday regarding using analytics for seeding in mind -- I think its something they have moved to a bit in the past. For that reason I have
Gonzaga as a 5 instead of a 7 per the BM
Oregon as a 7 instead of a 5 per the BM
Memphis as a 10 instead of an 8
UC San Diego as a 12 instead of a 10

- Also have Kentucky/Louisville as a 3/6 matchup. Typically against the rules for a rematch in round of 32, unless they have no workaround... it was either an SEC re-match or Louisville, and I think the NCAA will find a way to picks its spot here.

- West Virginia, Indiana, Texas and San Diego St are my last 4 in.

- If I had to guess what I could be wrong be about, it will be Xavier over Texas. Xavier had 1 Q1 win, but UConn and Creighton are very close to Q1.

 

[jncuse]

They just said Jerry Palm thought Michigan could be a 3. Committee typically doesn't adjust much for BIG final... to late, too much a Pain in the butt. I would be surprised if they were a 3, but I have been wrong many times.

 

[jncuse]

Memphis beats UAB.
Only 1 bubble buster in 2025 (which is closer to the norm of 1 or 2)
2024 had 5 bubble busters.

 

[bpo57]

I decided to put a bracket together. Its like spending the afternoon working on a puzzle I would think. I never got into typical puzzles - but I'm sure most wouldn't understand this either!

This is my bracket.

View attachment 250361

One adjustment in my view would be to separate Tennessee and Florida. I don't see two SEC teams seeded 1 and 2 being in the same region.

 

[bpo57]

Memphis beats UAB.
Only 1 bubble buster in 2025 (which is closer to the norm of 1 or 2)
2024 had 5 bubble busters.

I don't understand how the Matrix can have Memphis as an 8 seed. 29-5, won 16 of their last 17 games and have non-con wins over Missouri, Michigan State, Ole Miss, UConn and Clemson. I know they play in a weak league but an 8 seed would be absurd.

 

[jncuse]

One adjustment in my view would be to separate Tennessee and Florida. I don't see two SEC teams seeded 1 and 2 being in the same region.

In the past they would have separated them as they tried to balance the brackets, and separated them, But in recent years, its about location with first team on that seed line getting first dibs. I guess we will find out this year what they are doing.

But here was I how I pieced the puzzle:

The #5 team on my list was Alabama. As the #3 SEC team they are now allowed to play in Indy or Atlanta (as Florida and Auburn are already there),,. so Newark it was for them.

The #6 team was Tennessee. Since they were the #4 SEC team, they can now be placed anywhere that is the closest. And that was Atlanta. (If I had Tennessee at #5, the two teams would have just flipped)

 

[Orangefan1]

I'm really hoping for Duke-SJU in the east, so I dont like reading that.

I thought they always kept the top 3 teams from a conf in different regions, but would they necessarily do it for the 4th? Even if they're in the same region they wouldnt be slated to meet till the Elite 8, meanwhile there are so many other SEC teams that will also make it.

Looking forward to being a one seed today