2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

A little more chaos, for a team most don't mind losing in Ohio St.


Iowa takes out Ohio St... its just a Q2 loss for Ohio St, but it does weaken the teams right above the line (Ohio St was last team in per the current matrix (79 of 97), which helps a UNC or Texas if they get a follow up win tomorrow,

 

[jncuse]

I'd say the big loser today was Ohio St.

Big winner is probably Oklahoma locking up with a Q1 win, and Texas with a Q1 win below the line.

UNC, Ohio St, Xavier for 2 spots is not a clear choice.

 

[jncuse]

Conference week Thursday/Friday is usually the best day for bubble chaos, as all conferences are going and more Q1 win opportunities come up

Per the Matrix entering today (I'm making a few adjustments on rankings based on where I think things are at after yesterday) Only listing teams that I think are on the bubble still and not locks.

(Out of 100)
Utah St 100 *
West Virginia 100 **
San Diego St 100
VCU 100
Indiana 98
Xavier 93
Ohio St 73 ***
-----------------
UNC 13 ***
Texas 4 ***
Boise St 8
UC Irvine 7


* Utah St is at 9.75 per matrix. Lose to UNLV today probably still get in, but MWC always tough to read, and as you there is Boise and San Diego St on the list as well.

** West Virginia probably surives there loss to 3-17 Colorado (only a Q2), but I can't quite put them on lock.

*** With Ohio St losing to Iowa, and Texas with a Q1 win yesterday, I feel UNC, Texas, and Ohio St are all very close for that final spot. Also Xaxier's resume is mixed. I may go with UNC in that spot right now.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Baylor are in the Last 8 In per the Matrix yesterday, but with their wins yesterday they are locks, and I'm taking them off.

Bubble Busters Playing Today - None other than VCU above. Memphis and UC San Diego start tomorrow.

 

[jncuse]

Today's Schedule

12:00 Indiana (3rd Last in) vs Q1 Oregon
2:30 UNC (First Out) vs Q2 Wake Forest
2:30 Xavier (2nd Last In) vs Q1 Marquette
3:30 Texas (2nd Out) vs Q1 Texas A&M
5:30 San Diego St (5th Last in) vs Boise St (3rd Out), both bottom Q1 teams.
11:30 Utah St (7th last in) vs UNLV (Q2)

In terms of ACC. I will also add that is SMU beat Clemson, they possibly get into a play-in game vs Louisville on Friday. Or if wake pulls off the Tobacco road double knockout (UNC and Duke) they probably get back in the at-large discussion.

 

[jncuse]

It's been a tough few days for the B10. They had 2 teams right on the bubble line -- Indiana and Ohio St, and they both lost their first few games. Over 50% chance that loss does in Ohio St, and Indiana while fairly safe is not a lock.

This is due to UNC winning 2 games. and Texas looking like it might get 2 Q1 wins in the SEC tournament.

What do you hate more -- 14 SEC teams in the tournament or 10 BIG teams? That is what it might come down to if Texas wins today.

 

[jncuse]

Xavier blew a chance at a Q1 win against Marquette that would arguably have been enough to lock down a bad for them.

Right now I feel like its 6 teams battling for 4 spots (before bubble busters).
San Diego St
Indiana
Ohio St
Xavier
UNC
Texas (assuming they win this afternoon)

 

[cuseattle]

Xavier blew a chance at a Q1 win against Marquette that would arguably have been enough to lock down a bad for them.

Right now I feel like its 6 teams battling for 4 spots (before bubble busters).
San Diego St
Indiana
Ohio St
Xavier
UNC
Texas (assuming they win this afternoon)

Texas and A&M in OT

 

[MSOrange]

Texas and A&M in OT

Double overtime! Thanks for the heads up! I don't normally watch the SEC Network