UpstateSM
First to Surmise Dakota Leffew Would Be Orange
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- Mar 30, 2019
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The base of my numbers are SP+. I make adjustments based on 2nd order wins/luck, turnover regression, experience/continuity, coaching, position groups and, of course, my ole gut. The far right column is win percentage based on the spread in the second to right column.
I am obviously biased but I handicap every team in the country and try to be objective as possible thinking about these matchups. I really like our schedule and we have the talent to take advantage of it.
Colgate: Starters need to sit the entire second half. They are a fine FCS team but we should be up 35+ at halftime.
WMU: I think WMU might be a bottom 5 team in all of college football. They lose a decent amount, both lines are bad by MAC standards and their special teams is a mess. I have a weird affinity for their QB Bourguet but I still think that they would be the worst team in the MAC if Kent St didn't exist. Another game where the starters shouldn't see the field past the 3Q.
@Purdue: I am down on Purdue, too. I am sure the defense will be better under eventually but I don't think the turnaround happens this season. Their linebackers and defensive backs might be bottom of the barrel in the Big 10 and the DL will probably be average. Shrader and Co. should be able to put up plenty of points and I don't see how Purdue's offense can match given what they lost on that side. I also don't think Harrell is a good OC.
They play a really solid MW team in Fresno St and get Virginia Tech at home before us. I don't think either of those teams are great but we basically get two FCS teams while they are probably going to have to play 120 minutes of football. If we are legit this season this is a game that we should win.
Army: I know that their offense will be different but it will still be the triple at its core this season. One of the things Rocky Long is known for is dominating the triple. I will be at a wedding that weekend and I will be at the bar sweating a large bet on Cuse -whatever because I think we win by 3+ scores.
Clemson: My heart still hurts from the ending in Death Valley last season but I think we have a real shot to win this game, despite that 12.5 on my spreadsheet. They will be good, of course, and I don't love that they hired a proven OC but we always give Dabo hell and this is the closest the talent level between us and them has ever been in the ACC. Both of our lines need to be competent, at the very least, to pull it off. I am as excited for this as I ever have been for a home game.
@UNC: I have said it on here before but I really, really think we beat them on the road. Drake Maye is an absolute stud but nothing else on their roster scares me. Both of the lines are going to be bad and their DBs have 0.00% chance of stopping our weapons. It probably ends up being a shootout but our defense is multiple tiers better than UNC's and I don't think their offense ends up being that much better, if at all, than ours.
@FSU: We aren't winning this game. Even if we had the talent and depth to compete after Clemson and UNC, the ACC isn't letting FSU lose to Syracuse at home. Call me a conspiracy theorist, or whatever, but this would be the biggest surprise win of my 'Cuse fandom. It is easier to just accept that now.
Bye Week: Thank god
@VT: Nice of the ACC to shorten our bye week as much as possible. Lol. Grant Wells might be the worst QB in the ACC and their OLine is right there with him. Their defense will probably be fine but I just don't think they can score with us. A night game in Lane Stadium is always tough but we are catching them in a great year. If we are a good football team this is a game that we should win.
BC: I don't understand the positivity I see about this team. Morehead is fine, at best. The OLine is maybe average but probably below (even with a healthy Mahogany), the DLine is going to be below average and their secondary might just be bad. Hafley hasn't shown that he can coach and the special teams might be in trouble, too. Beat them by double digits in the Dome and send BC to the CAA.
Pitt: If you are wondering, I am still losing sleep over this game being in Yankee Stadium. You could give Narduzzi RFA's roster and I would just assume that he would beat us. I actually think that this was the year to get them at home. The lines aren't anything special, they are replacing a good amount and Jurkovec is hard to figure out. BUT we are going to play them in a cold baseball stadium where they can be physical for 60 minutes instead of our nice, warm Dome where we could play our game without any worries.
So, so, so stupid.
@Georgia Tech: Weird team. Haynes King could be really good or really bad and I wouldn't be surprised either way. We are better than them in the trenches and I think we can run on them all day if our OL is competent. They were pretty lucky with turnovers last season (+11) so there might be some regression coming over the course of the season with that. I have no idea what this team looks like and we are playing in unfamiliar territory but I know that we have more talent and an established culture so this is a game that Dino needs to win.
Wake Forest: I know that they lost Hartman and Perry but I do not have the stones to bet against Clawson at this point. Griffis' floor is probably competent and they are solid across the board. Losing Donavon Greene definitely hurts but their system is just their system. I have no problem with projecting us as a favorite because we are at home but at this point I expect Wake to be a tough out no matter where we play them. Hopefully we get to a point where we can out-talent them somewhat consistently.
The ~7.5 projected wins feels about right. If everything breaks right the ceiling is double digit wins. Even if everything goes wrong, the floor should be 5-6 going in the Wake game given our coaching staff, the schedule and the talent on the roster.
Definite wins: Colgate, WMU, Army and BC
Should be wins: Purdue, VT and GT
Toss-ups but I like us: Wake and UNC
Toss-ups that would surprise me a bit: Clemson and Pitt
Loss: FSU
I think the Purdue game tells us if we are fighting for six wins or fighting for 9+ wins. Such a huge game in my mind. I will have no problem convincing myself that we can compete for a spot in the ACCCG when we beat them in West Lafayette.
We have a stud QB. A really, really good coaching staff. A WR/TE room that I would put over almost all of the ACC if the Alford hype is real this time around. I have been on the LeQuint train since last fall and there is good depth behind him.
Our DB room has ACC-level talent past the two-deep and our linebackers are really underrated to most people outside of our fanbase.
It probably all comes down to the trenches. And for the first time in a long time the OLine talent and depth isn't my top worry going into a Syracuse football season. I don't think it will be elite by any means but I am comfortable saying that competent should be the floor. I am more nervous about the DLine but posters that I respect don't seem too worried about that group and some national/ACC "pundits" have said the same.
If that is the case with both units this team's ceiling is playing in Charlotte in December. We have a room full of SEC QBs and a freakin lottery pick catching passes. How unreal is that for Syracuse Football?
Lets go start 4-0 so I can have the best night of my life beating Clemson in a sold out Dome. The season is here, baby!
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