9:00 Wednesday Night -

[jncuse]

For those that don't delve into the bubble thread regularly. If you want to watch some games with real implications the best time this week could be 9:00 on Wednesday with 4 games on the go starting at the same time.

And hopefully when those wrap up, USC is in a tight one with Washington St.

 

[obliterata]

When you've got 2 bubble (or close to bubble) teams playing each other I always root for the home team. I think a win by the visiting team helps them too much.

I really really hope Louisville wins and then VaTech beats them in the regular season finale, Wake Forest has done almost nothing in conference up to now. They've got one win over a team with a winning record in conference, they beat Miami at home. 5 of their 7 ACC wins are against the bottom 3 teams BC, NC ST, and Pitt. And their "big" OOC wins are Richmond and LSU. If they lose their final 2 they're done barring a major run in the ACCT.

Go Cards!

 

[Jasoncuse]

This week has not been a great week, so far.

Needed some of these to lose:
Duke
Georgia Tech
Seton Hall
Providence

Vandy losing was nice, since they were somehow right on the cusp despite now 8 SEC losses.


Definitely root against Illinois, who could get to 9-9 in the B10 with a win over Sparty and Rutgers. They'd have around a 50 RPI, despite few very good wins.
Wake Forest has beaten nobody all year. They don't deserve anything over us, but I don't want it to be an option. Their best wins are Miami, Pitt and Charleston? However, they could get to 9-9 win the Lville and Vtech games this week, which would really propel them up. LOSE PLEASE.
TCU/Kansas State are both 6-10 in conference. Ehhhh
USC has Wazzu/Washington left. I assume they win those pretty easily.

Also, root against Cal (@Utah and @Colorado), who has FOUR top 100 wins-only one top 50. They don't belong.
Wichita State has TWO top 100 wins. TWO!!! They only have 1 other top 140 win (Tulsa). Who cares that they are 27-4 if you beat nobody. Lunardi has them as an 8 seed, LOL.
Illinois State's resume is even worse. They have the same 2 top 100 wins, another win over Tulsa and then sub-140 wins. They have a bad loss to Murray St. They shouldn't be close to an at-large bid. Root against them and hope they lose early in the Valley.

IF we can just take care of business against Georgia Tech, we should be solid, barring miracle runs from non-Tourney teams next week.

 

[orangenirvana]

No matter how many bubble teams win, they can't take six Top 50 wins away from Syracuse. Only Providence can claim that many among bubble teams.

The question then becomes: how will the committee perceive those wins considering they all came at home? Will they say "a win is a win"? Or will they say "they're good at home but the Tourney isn't played in the Carrier Dome" and devalue them?

This is why I think at least one ACCT win is more important than a win on Saturday.

 

[orangecuse]

No matter how many bubble teams win, they can't take six Top 50 wins away from Syracuse. Only Providence can claim that many among bubble teams.

The question then becomes: how will the committee perceive those wins considering they all came at home? Will they say "a win is a win"? Or will they say "they're good at home but the Tourney isn't played in the Carrier Dome" and devalue them?

This is why I think at least one ACCT win is more important than a win on Saturday.

Not to mention, it would be nice for an alleged "elite" program as SU to get off the schneid in the ACCT win column. :bang:

 

[jncuse]

This week has not been a great week, so far.

I disagreed with this assessment last night in the other thread. This week has went fine in my view. There really has not been been many games of much impact on Monday or Tuesday.

We need to be worried about teams below us getting "movers" -- that is quality victories especially those that were not expected. Teams above us could get bad losses, but Seton Hall and Providence winning home games against non tourney teams is not something we should count... or quite frankly need to count on.

The best result of a team last night was Georgia Tech beating Pitt at home. Sure that would have been nice, but it's not a huge mover.

Now tonight those games are "movers" for Illinois and Wake Forest.

 

[orangenirvana]

I averaged the four main computer rankings (Sagarin, KenPom, BPI, RPI) for what I consider to be the top 32 bubble teams and ranked them.

If you don't see a team then it's likely because I consider them stone-cold locks (Wichita State, Creighton, Minnesota, etc.).

1. Xavier - 33.0
2. Wake Forest - 37.75
3. VCU - 39.0
4. Arkansas - 40.5
5. Marquette - 41.5
6. Northwestern - 41.75
7. Clemson - 42.25
8. Virginia Tech - 42.75
9. Houston - 43.0
10. Michigan State - 43.75
11. Middle Tennessee - 47.0
12. California - 47.0
13. Illinois State - 47.25
14. Vanderbilt - 47.75
15. Rhode Island - 47.75
16. Kansas State - 47.75
17. TCU - 49.0
18. Syracuse - 50.5
19. Indiana - 51.0
20. Texas Tech - 52.25
21. Seton Hall - 54.0
22. Providence - 55.5
23. Georgia - 55.5
24. USC - 57.75
25. Ohio State - 60.5
26. Illinois - 61.0
27. Tennessee - 61.5
28. Georgetown - 66.75
29. BYU - 69.0
30. Pittsburgh - 70.5
31. Iowa - 77.5
32. Georgia Tech - 83.25

By comparison, here is what the Top 30 bubble teams looked like going into Selection Sunday last year. Tourney teams are in bold.

1. Wichita State - 27.0 (11 seed - Play-in game)
2. Texas - 30.5 (6 seed)
3. Saint Mary's - 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 33.75 (9 seed)
5. Vanderbilt - 34.5 (11 seed - Play-in game)
6. Cincinnati - 34.5 (9 seed)
7. VCU - 35.5 (10 seed)
8. Dayton - 39.0 (7 seed)
9. Butler - 40.0 (9 seed)
10. Florida - 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 42.5 (8 seed)
12. *Saint Joseph's - 42.5 (8 seed)
13. Pittsburgh - 43.25 (10 seed)
14. Providence - 43.75 (9 seed)
15. Valparaiso - 44.0
16. Colorado - 45.75 (8 seed)
17. USC - 46.5 (8 seed)
18. Syracuse - 47.5 (10 seed)
19. Michigan - 49.0 (11 seed - Play-in game)
20. South Carolina - 50.5
21. Oregon State - 53.0 (7 seed)
22. Georgia - 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61.0 (11 seed - Play-in game)
24. Saint Bonaventure - 65.5
25. Ohio State - 66.25
26. Houston - 67.5
27. George Washington - 67.5
28. Monmouth - 71.75
29. Temple - 73.0 (10 seed)
30. Alabama - 84.0

*Automatic Bid

Saint Mary's last season shows that high rankings aren't an at-large guarantee. Could Xavier - with a comparable rank average - be in trouble?

Florida - a high-major program - was also left out last year despite a good ranking average. Only two Top 50 wins would explain that. Teams this season with a ranking average of 50.0 or better with two or less Top 50 wins: Wake Forest (1), VCU (2), Houston (2), Middle Tennessee (2), California (1), Illinois State (1), Rhode Island (2), and TCU (2).

 

[Briancuse]

I hate to do it, but we probably should root against Northwestern, right?

 

[jncuse]

I will use this for the game night thread as we gear up for the 4 games at 9.

Georgia was at 2/32 (6%) on the bracket matrix today. So they just need to keep on winning. This will move them up a bit as I hope there will be a few losers tonight.

Their key game this week is at Arkansas a top 50 win.

They have an odd resume. Sort of Anti-Syracuse.
Georgia is 1-8 vs top 50, That hurts. They do have 9 wins for teams in between 51-100 - very solid.

Why do they have so many wins in the 51-100 range? Road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, None of those teams are huge but any top 100 road win in the P5 is not that easy too come by. I doubt you see any other bubble team with 5 top 100 road wins.

Arkansas is a must win for them. At that point it could come down to making the semi's in the SEC.

Because of lack of top 50 wins they will never be clearly in. But it's an interesting enough resume that they may not be a "shock" if they get in.

 

[jncuse]

As of today they had the last spot on the matrix (17 of 32)... but they seem to fit the profile of the team that gets left out.

Rhode Island is eating up on an easy A-10 schedule to end the season.

I think their entire season may ride on whether they beat or lose to Dayton/VCU in the A-10 tourney.

 

[jncuse]

What a win by Northwestern. This should lock it up for them. They have reason to celebrate.

 

[Briancuse]

What a win by Northwestern. This should lock it up for them. They have reason to celebrate.

Don't think it hurts us that much.

 

[orange79]

What a win by Northwestern. This should lock it up for them. They have reason to celebrate.

And then there were 4 (Army, The Citadel, St. Francis of Brooklyn, and William and Mary) teams who have never made the NCAA tournament.

Congrats, Wildcats!

 

[Briancuse]

And then there were 4 (Army, The Citadel, St. Francis of Brooklyn, and William and Mary) teams who have never made the NCAA tournament.

Congrats, Wildcats!

William did, Mary has never made it.

 

[jncuse]

And then there were 4 (Army, The Citadel, St. Francis of Brooklyn, and William and Mary) teams who have never made the NCAA tournament.

Congrats, Wildcats!

In this in terms of programs that existed when the NCAA tourney started?

 

[orange79]

In this in terms of programs that existed when the NCAA tourney started?

Yep.

There are 351 teams playing Division I basketball, 160 of which have been in the NCAA's top tier since it was formed before the 1948-49 season. Of those original members, five — Army, The Citadel, Northwestern, St. Francis of Brooklyn and William and Mary — have never played in its signature event, the NCAA tournament.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

William did, Mary has never made it.

Mary is playing hard to get.

 

[Jake]

Longest streak missing the dance of P5 schools now belongs to...drumrolll please...

Rutgers.

 

[jncuse]

Longest streak missing the dance of P5 schools now belongs to...drumrolll please...

Rutgers.

And I believe its over 10 years longer than any p5 schools.

 

[jncuse]

I'm unable to watch tcu games on TV. That floor is too close to white.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

And I believe its over 10 years longer than any p5 schools.

1991.

Lost to Arizona St.

 

[pearl31]

ugh l'vlle crapped up a nice cushion and is now only up 1 at halftime... I think if there's one result this week that could really hurt us it's Wake winning tonight

 

[jncuse]

Don't think it hurts us that much.

It was unlikely they would lose out. I am more concerned about teams below us on the matrix than above us.

 

[jncuse]

Potentially all 4 results we did not want could happen based on current scores. Wake up 5 ... yikes. I remember them being down by 14.

Although one could argue that Xavier is more vulnerable moving forward than Marquette, so we are getting the better result. What a mess they are, down double digits at home against Marquette. And this is a serious blow to TCU -- even Palm will have to take him off his bracket.

 

[jncuse]

Clemson is barely hanging on. They will get to 6-12 in the ACC. Will they then be able to get to ACC Semi's or Finals to get in the conversation.