So it's only three games in and the competition level has been hard to determine to some extent (we know UVA is good but are they top 10 good? Colgate was great at the end of last year and returns a bunch of guys but didn't look all that impressive and Seattle was supposed to be a tomato can and probably is but I thought they had some players and moved the ball well offensively).
Having said that, we've still learned some things about a team that, to me at least, was a pretty significant mystery to start the season. So what have we learned?
Girard is a player
Might as well start with the big one. It'd be easy to point to his ridiculous game Saturday but honestly the questions I had were defense (height and quickness) and taking care of the basketball (handle and getting used to the speed of the game passing the ball). Saw him do ok but struggle a bit with these the one time I saw him in that Capitol Classic all-star game. The kid not only been solid these aspects but he's actually brought A TON of energy defensively and taken really good care of the ball offensively -- particularly when you consider he seems to be involved somehow in about 75% of our buckets.
He's got 6 TOs in three games (72 minutes), which is not incredible, but playing the point in your first game as a frosh against UVA and only turning it over twice is solid, he was great against Colgate and one of his TOs, IIRC, against Seattle was when he got tied up after a steal. Another was when he went baseline and may have made the wrong decision on the pass (he had someone open on the wing for three but tried to feed I Sidibe I think in the paint) but I actually thought Sidibe just wasn't ready for the pass. If he was, he might have had an easy layup (though the pass was a little hot). He's really done a nice job there with only a couple careless passes.
I've always loved when we've had gaurds that disrupted other team's flow offensively. Hart, Rautins and MCW were the best but Waiters and GMac were pests, Scoop could bother teams, etc. Girard anticipates so well and plays so aggressively that he's a big factor on that end of the floor even if his rotations aren't perfect.
Offensively the tempo picks up when he's in and he makes plays for others as well as for himself. The GMac comparisons are inevitable but, in this case, I actually sort of agree. He's a guy people are going to love and he gives us punch offensively which we desperately need.
How this all translates into ACC play remains something of a question b/c he wasn't nearly as big a factor vs. UVA but I don't think it's an overreaction to be excited about what he's looked like. If you figure we only topped 80 points five times last season and only scored more than 89 once (95 points miraculously against Duke in mid-January), it's got to be a good sign to score that many points regardless of opponent.
The rotation is starting to work itself out
It's an annual rite of passage to complain about the rotation and get bitter about whomever is getting 'Boeheimed' but it seems like a pretty logical setup at the moment. Consider:
Again, probably a question of how much this translates vs. P5 and/or tougher opponents but even so, this team has much more flow than the last couple. Girard always wants to push and is dangerous in that scenario. Even Buddy has made some plays in the secondary break. Hughes had a bad early-shot clock heave at one point but I'm really fine with it as a general rule seeing how slow we've played in the past.
The little play we run with the two screens on the low block to hit a curling Hughes/Marek is, in and of itself, more actual offense than we ran all year last season. We've put up 38 assists in the past two games -- we did that only once all year last year (it was when we put up 39 assists in mid-Jan against pitt and miami, back-to-back).
One thing I'd love to see, as a nitpick, is a few more lobs at times. We feed guys around the basket but then the guy who receives that pass has to gather and finish. That feels like it could just be a lob to a layup or dunk at times. Guerrier was saying that to Hughes, I think, at one point.
We are a very different offensive team. That's good news even if I'm not sure yet how many wins that will actually translate to.
Buddy is a little more Janulis than he is Rautins
People might hate this but if there's a sliding scale with Janulis (good player but mostly a shooter) on one end and Rautins (all-BE guard who was a factor on both ends of the floor and a really good passer) on the other, Buddy skews a bit more toward Janulis. His lateral quickness and foot speed are slow on the defensive end. He makes up for it to a degree with good anticipation and hustle, but he's still working to get to average on that end of the floor. Offensively he has more to his game than Janulis -- more range, more handle, more ability to make a play going to the basket -- but he's not great at finding a teammate off the dribble, his passing is average and he's not quite the factor in usettled situations that Rautins was.
Again, want to make clear that I'm not hammering buddy. Janulis was a kid who started 114 games in his career, was one of the most consistent shooters we have ever had here and played in a national title game. AND, buddy is better. But the rautins comparisons ... just not sure I see that in his game.
Rebounding will be a problem
Nothing new or earth-shattering here but we struggle to rebound. I guess we beat seattle on the boards but it was close. Going to take a team effort here and hoping Guerrier can play himself into more of a role but it's likely going to be a struggle all year.
Other random thoughts ...
Love to see Marek aggressive and looking for his shot offensively. It's only Seattle but we've actually seen Marek score against good opponents (the last 7 or 8 games of his freshman year) so hopefully he continues to explore that ... Sibide playing a relatively healthy 23 mpg all year would be great ... Goodine is a key. Not sure what he's going to be yet (this season) ...
Having said that, we've still learned some things about a team that, to me at least, was a pretty significant mystery to start the season. So what have we learned?
Girard is a player
Might as well start with the big one. It'd be easy to point to his ridiculous game Saturday but honestly the questions I had were defense (height and quickness) and taking care of the basketball (handle and getting used to the speed of the game passing the ball). Saw him do ok but struggle a bit with these the one time I saw him in that Capitol Classic all-star game. The kid not only been solid these aspects but he's actually brought A TON of energy defensively and taken really good care of the ball offensively -- particularly when you consider he seems to be involved somehow in about 75% of our buckets.
He's got 6 TOs in three games (72 minutes), which is not incredible, but playing the point in your first game as a frosh against UVA and only turning it over twice is solid, he was great against Colgate and one of his TOs, IIRC, against Seattle was when he got tied up after a steal. Another was when he went baseline and may have made the wrong decision on the pass (he had someone open on the wing for three but tried to feed I Sidibe I think in the paint) but I actually thought Sidibe just wasn't ready for the pass. If he was, he might have had an easy layup (though the pass was a little hot). He's really done a nice job there with only a couple careless passes.
I've always loved when we've had gaurds that disrupted other team's flow offensively. Hart, Rautins and MCW were the best but Waiters and GMac were pests, Scoop could bother teams, etc. Girard anticipates so well and plays so aggressively that he's a big factor on that end of the floor even if his rotations aren't perfect.
Offensively the tempo picks up when he's in and he makes plays for others as well as for himself. The GMac comparisons are inevitable but, in this case, I actually sort of agree. He's a guy people are going to love and he gives us punch offensively which we desperately need.
How this all translates into ACC play remains something of a question b/c he wasn't nearly as big a factor vs. UVA but I don't think it's an overreaction to be excited about what he's looked like. If you figure we only topped 80 points five times last season and only scored more than 89 once (95 points miraculously against Duke in mid-January), it's got to be a good sign to score that many points regardless of opponent.
The rotation is starting to work itself out
It's an annual rite of passage to complain about the rotation and get bitter about whomever is getting 'Boeheimed' but it seems like a pretty logical setup at the moment. Consider:
- JBA (redshirting), Washington, Braswell and Carey (at least for now) are out. The JBA decision makes sense so long as Sidibe is relatively healthy and he's behind Edwards. Not sure where he'd get minutes. Same goes for Braswell. I love the kid and would love to see him get some minutes (and I hope we play well enough that he does in some of these games) but if Sidibe is healthy it pushes Marek to the 4 and creates a tough spot for Bras b/c Guerrier, Hughes and Marek are all potentially 25+ mpg type guys. Girard emerging a PG pushes Washington down to third on the depth chart there adn while he's capable I'm not sure he brings quite enough to the table to unseat Girard/Goodine. Carey may work his way back in particularly if Goodine has some growing pains. He may also be completely done. Not sure, but if he comes back I would think it's more as a 2 and I would guess that they are working with him more in that capacity going forward.
- The three frosh are the bench and may be the key to this team. Nice outing from Guerrier Saturday and he's probably the no. 1 option off the bench at this point. You can certainly see what the staff liked about him and I would guess his role will expand as he proves he can handle it. 14 FTs against Colgate is no joke regardless of opponent. Goodine is a baby deer at this point and needs to get more comfortable offensively but he's a pest defensively. The hope with Edwards will be that he can play well enough to potentially give us a couple 3-minute stretches each half. Gives Marek more time at the 4 while giving Sidibe a breather and hopefully managing his minutes a bit. Loved the play Saturday where he grabbed a board and outletted the ball to Girard as he was landing to start a fastbreak. Really nice instincts on that play. That said he'll have to improve to hold down this role in big ACC games.
- Hughes, Buddy, Girard, Marek and Sidibe will get big minutes. Goes without saying, really.
Again, probably a question of how much this translates vs. P5 and/or tougher opponents but even so, this team has much more flow than the last couple. Girard always wants to push and is dangerous in that scenario. Even Buddy has made some plays in the secondary break. Hughes had a bad early-shot clock heave at one point but I'm really fine with it as a general rule seeing how slow we've played in the past.
The little play we run with the two screens on the low block to hit a curling Hughes/Marek is, in and of itself, more actual offense than we ran all year last season. We've put up 38 assists in the past two games -- we did that only once all year last year (it was when we put up 39 assists in mid-Jan against pitt and miami, back-to-back).
One thing I'd love to see, as a nitpick, is a few more lobs at times. We feed guys around the basket but then the guy who receives that pass has to gather and finish. That feels like it could just be a lob to a layup or dunk at times. Guerrier was saying that to Hughes, I think, at one point.
We are a very different offensive team. That's good news even if I'm not sure yet how many wins that will actually translate to.
Buddy is a little more Janulis than he is Rautins
People might hate this but if there's a sliding scale with Janulis (good player but mostly a shooter) on one end and Rautins (all-BE guard who was a factor on both ends of the floor and a really good passer) on the other, Buddy skews a bit more toward Janulis. His lateral quickness and foot speed are slow on the defensive end. He makes up for it to a degree with good anticipation and hustle, but he's still working to get to average on that end of the floor. Offensively he has more to his game than Janulis -- more range, more handle, more ability to make a play going to the basket -- but he's not great at finding a teammate off the dribble, his passing is average and he's not quite the factor in usettled situations that Rautins was.
Again, want to make clear that I'm not hammering buddy. Janulis was a kid who started 114 games in his career, was one of the most consistent shooters we have ever had here and played in a national title game. AND, buddy is better. But the rautins comparisons ... just not sure I see that in his game.
Rebounding will be a problem
Nothing new or earth-shattering here but we struggle to rebound. I guess we beat seattle on the boards but it was close. Going to take a team effort here and hoping Guerrier can play himself into more of a role but it's likely going to be a struggle all year.
Other random thoughts ...
Love to see Marek aggressive and looking for his shot offensively. It's only Seattle but we've actually seen Marek score against good opponents (the last 7 or 8 games of his freshman year) so hopefully he continues to explore that ... Sibide playing a relatively healthy 23 mpg all year would be great ... Goodine is a key. Not sure what he's going to be yet (this season) ...
