ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[dasher]

Cable just dropped below 50%. Streaming now is about 52%. Cable is dead. Its the equivalent of a land line in your home.

HAVE BOTH

 

[kcsu]

HAVE BOTH

Me too but we are dinosaurs

 

[oldpinepoint]

Cable just dropped below 50%. Streaming now is about 52%. Cable is dead. Its the equivalent of a land line in your home.

Traditional TV 'past the point of no return' as viewership hits record low

 

[gedneyatthe3]

Id hope this is something some highly paid people in the AD and University are already looking to do, by utilizing their programs, talents, and alum contacts throughout the industry

I am pretty sure they are doing this but I think they are making a big mistake in doing it quietly. The PR battle of realignment is what creates the momentum and no one is talking about the angle that it's not about the sport it's about the subscriptions. Especially when the NCAA breakaway happens and basketball postseason is in the mix.

 

[SWC75]

Cable just dropped below 50%. Streaming now is about 52%. Cable is dead. Its the equivalent of a land line in your home.

I have both.

 

[WoadBlue]

This is not about markets anymore. It’s about how many subscriptions your fan base will buy to see your team on a streaming service. Large state schools are gonna be the winners eventually.

The people who claimed it was about markets, meaning largely just being in them, were always wrong. It always was about being able ro deliver those markets. BC never mattered no matter how big the Boston TV market because nobody in that market cared about BC sports.

Real CFB people, the ones who truly grasped what was what, and that means the SEC first and foremost, always knew it was far better to take an Arkansas than a BC or a Pitt or a Syracuse, because Arkansas has passionate fans and they watch, all the time. Proven fans that buy tickets and go to games. That is how to rank value. That means WVU is worth many times more than BC could ever hope to be worth. That sums the ACC failures in leadership that have gotten us to this pass.

Basketball works the same basic way, but as basketball is much less valuable than football, the ACC, which has all that passion and large TV audiences for basketball, is at a huge disadvantage vis a vis the SEC and BT.

The BE could never have become a 'permanent' Major conference in football. And once the BE got back to being just about basketball, the BE once again became a monster in basketball. The temptation for what I have always derisively canned ACC 'basketball-onlys' and 'basketball-firsters' should FSU and Clemson leave is to argue that the ACC should just return to being what to is in 1960 or 1980: happy to be also ran in football, with an occasional Top 10 team, but truly excellent in every way in basketball. So the fight would be between those folks and the football minded people at the remaining schools as to which schools to add to replenish the ACC membership.

Anybody who would want UConn and Temple in the ACC is wanting to focus all league energies on basketball. Anybody who would want WVU and UCF and CIncy, UCF, is all about trying to re-bolster football.

 

[Cuse181]

This is not about markets anymore. It’s about how many subscriptions your fan base will buy to see your team on a streaming service. Large state schools are gonna be the winners eventually.

This. $10/month or ~40m/season per 1 million subs plus another 40 or so from ads for the big schools might be the only way to survive

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Chip]

Cold. Just cold.

 

[kcsu]

SU needs to control what it can. Be as good in our key sports as possible. There really isnt anything else that we can do.

 

[CousCuse]

The people who claimed it was about markets, meaning largely just being in them, were always wrong. It always was about being able ro deliver those markets. BC never mattered no matter how big the Boston TV market because nobody in that market cared about BC sports.

Real CFB people, the ones who truly grasped what was what, and that means the SEC first and foremost, always knew it was far better to take an Arkansas than a BC or a Pitt or a Syracuse, because Arkansas has passionate fans and they watch, all the time. Proven fans that buy tickets and go to games. That is how to rank value. That means WVU is worth many times more than BC could ever hope to be worth. That sums the ACC failures in leadership that have gotten us to this pass.

Basketball works the same basic way, but as basketball is much less valuable than football, the ACC, which has all that passion and large TV audiences for basketball, is at a huge disadvantage vis a vis the SEC and BT.

The BE could never have become a 'permanent' Major conference in football. And once the BE got back to being just about basketball, the BE once again became a monster in basketball. The temptation for what I have always derisively canned ACC 'basketball-onlys' and 'basketball-firsters' should FSU and Clemson leave is to argue that the ACC should just return to being what to is in 1960 or 1980: happy to be also ran in football, with an occasional Top 10 team, but truly excellent in every way in basketball. So the fight would be between those folks and the football minded people at the remaining schools as to which schools to add to replenish the ACC membership.

Anybody who would want UConn and Temple in the ACC is wanting to focus all league energies on basketball. Anybody who would want WVU and UCF and CIncy, UCF, is all about trying to re-bolster football.

Syracuse sports are widely supported across New York state, that's not the case with PITT and even less so with BC. It's just that Syracuse football has been in such a long stretch of mediocrity that the fan base has gone dormant. If Syracuse was having the level of success that Pitt has been having, the support would be off the charts. BC has never been widely supported even during successful periods, they are just too elite for people in Mass to identify with. PITT has some support in Pa., but Penn State takes most of it and that will never change.

 

[Orangezoo]

This. $10/month or ~40m/season per 1 million subs plus another 40 or so from ads for the big schools might be the only way to survive

Yep. A lot of us would pay for an SU specific streaming service even per sport. Don't even mind if it was Newhouse kids calling a lot of the games. The on air talent has dropped so much for most of the networks it wouldn't matter anyway.

 

[Newhouser]

Yep. A lot of us would pay for an SU specific streaming service even per sport. Don't even mind if it was Newhouse kids calling a lot of the games. The on air talent has dropped so much for most of the networks it wouldn't matter anyway.

I agree but it seems that the early hoop games that are streamed always end up with people complaining about the stream and the students who host the halftime show ha.

 

[Orangezoo]

I agree but it seems that the early hoop games that are streamed always end up with people complaining about the stream and the students who host the halftime show ha.

With all the ESPN layoffs I'm done complaining lol

 

[kcsu]

Assuming that all of the leagues get a reduction at the next go round i believe that SU and the ACC are in good hands with ESPN. Why? Because they are taking the steps now to position themselves for the future. Because they have an obligation to the ACC for another 13 years. Remember the GOR works both ways. Also becuase they are well positioned to enter into a relationship with a major streaming partner like apple or amazon and because the ACC has a deep library of content that goes beyond the two major sports. Baseball, Girls softball, lacrosse are all valuable. SU will be fine. I believe that by the contract renewal term SU will be able to count on a minimum of 50 M per year. That will be enough to keep us competitive. I also believe that Congress will have acted and created some degree of uniformity.
Syracuse will be fine.

 

[ElwoodJBlues]

Assuming that all of the leagues get a reduction at the next go round i believe that SU and the ACC are in good hands with ESPN. Why? Because they are taking the steps now to position themselves for the future. Because they have an obligation to the ACC for another 13 years. Remember the GOR works both ways. Also becuase they are well positioned to enter into a relationship with a major streaming partner like apple or amazon and because the ACC has a deep library of content that goes beyond the two major sports. Baseball, Girls softball, lacrosse are all valuable. SU will be fine. I believe that by the contract renewal term SU will be able to count on a minimum of 50 M per year. That will be enough to keep us competitive. I also believe that Congress will have acted and created some degree of uniformity.
Syracuse will be fine.

I think this is a great point that a few others have alluded to as well in the thread. When the GORs are up for the other conferences, will networks/streaming platforms be able/willing to pay guaranteed bucks to the extent they have for SEC and Big 10? ESPN no longer looks like the sports entertainment juggernaut they once were and a lot of the networks/streaming platforms at that point will no longer be okay burning cash. The incentive-based structure from a subs perspective means that some leagues will have some marks to hit to get where they are now and to me, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to keep members happy no matter what the split is. The ACC may look really attractive to some schools who know they’re going to get taken to the woodshed by the big boys when it comes to GOR and distribution.

 

[Chip]

SU needs to control what it can. Be as good in our key sports as possible. There really isnt anything else that we can do.

When this thing blows up to the point of football needing to break away (which is inevitable), I think the Haves are going to vehemently oppose the have nots. Everyone is free to break away from their former alliances.

Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State will not be willing to earn the same revenue as Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern. Vandy will be gone. They'll decide on the minimably viable number of teams that holds national interest/maximizes the media deal, and keep all the money between themselves.

Sad to say, but SU won't be in the AAA. But that's fine, I'd be perfectly happy in AA with BC, Pitt, Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, etc.

Sorry, UConn, but you're in either A ball or Rookie.

 

[SURules]

When this thing blows up to the point of football needing to break away (which is inevitable), I think the Haves are going to vehemently oppose the have nots. Everyone is free to break away from their former alliances.

Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State will not be willing to earn the same revenue as Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern. Vandy will be gone. They'll decide on the minimably viable number of teams that holds national interest/maximizes the media deal, and keep all the money between themselves.

Sad to say, but SU won't be in the AAA. But that's fine, I'd be perfectly happy in AA with BC, Pitt, Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, etc.

Sorry, UConn, but you're in either A ball or Rookie.

You will see a vast majority of teams in your AA league. Even teams with egos higher than they actually are like UNC, NC State, etc in the ACC.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

State of ACC and realignment: What's next for Florida State and the conference?

Now that the deadline for teams to exit the ACC for 2024 has passed, we break down what happened and what's next.

www.espn.com

 

[UpstateSM]

I kind of envy people who have been diehard FCS fans the entire time. I might join them in a couple of years if this goes where I think it’s heading.

 

[CousCuse]

I kind of envy people who have been diehard FCS fans the entire time. I might join them in a couple of years if this goes where I think it’s heading.

Mmen are going to blow up this year.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Lots of posts to catch up on.

-A streaming provider (like Youtube) is still using the cable model. It hurts the cable company but the network gets paid the same way. The direct to consumer model (like Apple) is where a difference will be.

-OTA games still care about Markets somewhat when combined with Brand. They don't get paid via subscribers.

-I think there will be plenty of money left for the B18 and SEC for their next contracts. Except instead of one network buying a majority of the rights, they will split the rights into packages that several providers will share.

For example let's say the B18 goes to 24. That will give them 12+ games a week to sell. They can sell Friday Night Football to Amazon. Sell the Saturday Night Game of the Week to NBC. Noon and 3:30 to FOX. Noon and 3:30 to FS1. Sell a Noon, 3:30, and 7:30 to Apple. Have a Noon, 3:30, 7:30 for the BTN. Same for the SEC but with ABC/ESPN and CBS.

The problem is all the money will be tied up in those two conferences leaving not much left for the other conferences.

-I don't see a Super League working in anyway.

First, who decides who makes it and who doesn't? South Carolina has a large fanbase but not a great brand. Would they be worth adding? One could argue that having Rutgers would be better.

Second, you cannot have the majority of teams all in one section of the country. The interest will be poor in the rest of the country. Even the NFL shows games regionally. Not every game will be national TV worthy. ESPN usually does the same with the ABC CFB games as well. And CFB fans who do not have any attachment to these teams are not going to pay multiple subscriptions to watch. You lose a ton of eyeballs.

Third, what makes the big schools marketable is their Brand and Fanbase size. So what do you think will happen to both if teams start going 6-6 instead of 10-2? If the Brands are being tarnished and fans aren't engaged, you lose a lot of eyeballs. People can get excited about seeing 7-1 Oklahoma vs 6-2 Wisconsin. Not so much when it is 5-3 Oklahoma vs 4-4 Wisconsin.

Let's say the Top 32 programs left. In a typical season you likely end up with about 3 teams at 1-2 Ws, about 3 teams at 3-4 Ws, about 3 teams at 8-9 Ws, about 3 teams at 10-11 Ws, and about 18 teams at 5-7 Ws. That will absolutely kill many brands and many fanbase sizes. If you are only seeing 20-25% of the schools have successful seasons vs 75-80% now, it will change things a lot.

I don't doubt there is eventually a breakaway, but I think it will be more like 3 leagues of 24 than one league of 32.

 

[SouthernCuse]

Cold. Just cold.

Yeah, but you would take that deal too.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Oh and I forgot a point to add about a potential Super League. It would most likely mean paying players. There will be schools who are Super League worthy that decide that they do not want any part of paying players. So they stay behind in FBS. You could have decent fan bases and decent brands not go, which will create a competitive product to the SL.