ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[oldpinepoint]

Are streaming companies willing to pay more than the previous cable/satellite companies were for sports content? Especially if avg viewers decreases (I don’t know that this will happen, it’s just my theory it will). I just don’t see apple or Amazon giving the B10 the $ they’re getting now. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out though. I have no clue.

Well I see a couple of things, the streaming companies have a lot of cash. The writers and actors strike make sports more valuable as far as content. I think Brands will be more important 6 years from now as opposed to markets

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

Thinking down the road. I do think the SEC or the B10 MAY come after ASU. The school now has 140,000 students. I’m being serious - 140,000 students.

The President is a marvel. All academic programs are flourishing. Some starting to break into the top 25.

I've mentioned it here before, but hearing my PI describe Crow as "a Greek god" (not that there's anything wrong with that) was definitely one of the funniest things I witnessed in grad school. He has done an amazing job at ASU.

 

[Hoo's That]

Unless ESPN was willing to come to the table on any particular adds, put me in the do nothing camp.

We're a conference with reasonable travel, one time zone, and we all agreed to a deal that we just have to live with.

If Clemson and FSU could get out of it, they already would have. If they want to pay up, then fine, we'll take it. Assuming the SEC or B1G even wanted them, they would get a much lower share for share for several years, and by the time they broke even, those in power would probably be dead or retired.

Oregon and Washington could take less because their exit fee was $0, plus they were essentially homeless.

Let the season get started, this stuff will quiet down for a bit. There really aren't many chess pieces left.

Well, there is a pro rata add, each new school adds one current share to the existing contract. Adding Cal, Stanford, and/or SMU would have no effect on how much each school currently receives under the ESPN contract.

 

[Orangefan1]

What’s interesting is these teams like Florida State want more revenue but are preventing that from happening for the next ten years indicated backwards thinking.

 

[Hoo's That]

ESPN ain’t throwing any more money at the ACC than is contractually necessary. They’re all in with the SEC, and the next NBA deal is a giant sword looming over their head.


ACCN subscribers are vanishing at an alarming rate. The money gained in bumping those states to ACC-home school status is literally getting smaller by the day. Plus, every cable operator based in those states is going to balk, aggressively, at paying in-state rates for those third tier schools. It’ll take a long time to negotiate, and by then the ACCN will have lost even more millions of subscribers.

Could you link to the item on how the ACCN is losing subscribers?

If you have YouTube TV, you're paying for the ACCN regardless of whether you watch it or not. I would imagine that the ACCN already is a part of a premium sports package for cable in California. On many cable systems (like Comcast) ESPNU is in a premium sports package and not part of the basic offering (beyond the one that's really just an antenna for the local stations).

 

[syracuse95]

What’s interesting is these teams like Florida State want more revenue but are preventing that from happening for the next ten years indicated backwards thinking.

The schools, individually, are wringing every dollar out the system that they can while simultaneously strangling the system to death. It will be great when there are only 24 teams left in the "Mega-Ultra-Premiere-Conference," and they then turn on each other while viewership tanks because 3/4 of the country has no rooting interest in any of the (mostly southern) teams. Hopefully all the Rutgers fans leave their TVs on to keep the ship afloat.

 

[CousCuse]

ESPN ain’t throwing any more money at the ACC than is contractually necessary. They’re all in with the SEC, and the next NBA deal is a giant sword looming over their head.


ACCN subscribers are vanishing at an alarming rate. The money gained in bumping those states to ACC-home school status is literally getting smaller by the day. Plus, every cable operator based in those states is going to balk, aggressively, at paying in-state rates for those third tier schools. It’ll take a long time to negotiate, and by then the ACCN will have lost even more millions of subscribers.

I brought the idea up because i believe the current expansion is over. I think UNC has shown their hand and it's a no to Calford. So I think the gears have shifted and a new phase is already in the works.

 

[SU94]

Nah. Those schools were the best of what was around, and needed to be added so the conference could literally continue to exist.

The Big 12 is “strong” in the sense that neither the B1G nor the SEC wants any of its members.

I think there is real potential that the Big 12 and Big 18 could learn to regret their most recent expansion (ASU, UofA, Utah, Colorado) in the coming years. Let's take the B12 for instance ... In 2031 (or whatever year their contract ends), they will likely have 16 teams.

If every team is expecting more than their current $31M per year ... let's say that they strive for $35M per school over a 7-year contract.

Here are the total rights fees for ESPN (or Fox) if they take the entire package:

$35M/school, 7-year deal
12 Teams: $420M per year --- $2.94B for the entirety of the contract
16 teams: $560M per year --- $3.92B for the entirety of the contract

So, those four corners schools will cost ESPN an extra $1B. That's a lot of cash. Yes, 2031 is a few years away and a lot can (and will) change, but that is a lot of cash for a company that just went through a series of painful layoffs that likely totaled only a small portion of that aforementioned $1B difference.

(Of course, the same could be reasonably applied to the prospect of adding Stanford, Cal and SMU)

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Well it depends. Long term CalFord can't survive as travel will eat them alive. I do agree that they should still be available in 5-7 years.

Sadly this is a fight for #3 and the ACC through dysfunction is stuck in limbo. UNC is really surprising that they are playing obstructionist. It was Swofford protecting Raycom nearly 15 years ago which put the ACC behind. I always felt UNC liked running the ACC?

There is plenty of blame to go around and Syracuse playing mostly subpar football for 20 years hasn't helped. Our attendance has been closer to G5 than P5 in Football. Basketball was allowed to shrivel too.

Worst case in the next 5 years we end up in some franken-conference with left behinds.

We'll see if the ACC makes a move on CalFord.

If we don't have to keep our BB program in the conference with the left behinds but can place FB there and go Big East for basketball that is a perfect scenario. 10 win seasons and a likely path to the expanded playoffs and hoops gets its brand back.

Give me that any day over somehow ending up in the Big Ten or SEC.

 

[Willy75]

Could you link to the item on how the ACCN is losing subscribers?

If you have YouTube TV, you're paying for the ACCN regardless of whether you watch it or not. I would imagine that the ACCN already is a part of a premium sports package for cable in California. On many cable systems (like Comcast) ESPNU is in a premium sports package and not part of the basic offering (beyond the one that's really just an antenna for the local stations).

I think this is true for Verizon in Metro NY as well.

 

[Killdozer]

If we don't have to keep our BB program in the conference with the left behinds but can place FB there and go Big East for basketball that is a perfect scenario. 10 win seasons and a likely path to the expanded playoffs and hoops gets its brand back.

Give me that any day over somehow ending up in the Big Ten or SEC.

Man, you are so obsessed with BE basketball even though it is not the big east that exists in your memory.

 

[tep624]

Man, you are so obsessed with BE basketball even though it is not the big east that exists in your memory.

Yeah think you hit the nail on the head with that one.

 

[pokercuse08]

If we don't have to keep our BB program in the conference with the left behinds but can place FB there and go Big East for basketball that is a perfect scenario. 10 win seasons and a likely path to the expanded playoffs and hoops gets its brand back.

Give me that any day over somehow ending up in the Big Ten or SEC.

I want some of what this guy's smoking! So much of this post is a pipe dream, and I wish I had that kind of optimism about 10 win seasons. But I'll skip the obvious stuff and go to...

a likely path to the expanded playoffs

What makes anyone think that the B1G and SEC are going to extend a path to the expanded playoffs to an ACC that doesn't have any real contenders in it? The whole idea here is to extract as much money as possible for the powerhouse programs and leave everyone else by the wayside.

This idea that the ACC can just sit on its hands and when the dust settles it'll still have a path to the playoffs is a farce.

 

[kcsu]

The ACC champion will always get a spot in the playoffs

 

[Scooch]

Could you link to the item on how the ACCN is losing subscribers?

If you have YouTube TV, you're paying for the ACCN regardless of whether you watch it or not. I would imagine that the ACCN already is a part of a premium sports package for cable in California. On many cable systems (like Comcast) ESPNU is in a premium sports package and not part of the basic offering (beyond the one that's really just an antenna for the local stations).

Google “cord cutting” and you’ll see what I mean.

Cable subscriptions are cratering.

 

[Orangefan1]

So losing money for the next ten years by North Carolina is a smart move? Thanks for nothing NC wish we could kick these four teams out now and move on

 

[Orangezoo]

Google “cord cutting” and you’ll see what I mean.

Cable subscriptions are cratering.

Yeah- anecdotally speaking but when you see older folks who are your typical late adopters of any kind of change shifting away from cable... you know cable TV in its traditional format is done for.

 

[PhatOrange]

Just wait until 5-10 yrs out and the best TV deal out there is for 25-35 million for any conference due to the reduced viewership as everything is streaming and more fans lose interest with so many teams iced out. Many schools and conferences alike will look about as wise as we see the NCAA today.

People keep saying this but Streaming Services have to buy the rights to stream the games. Instead of CBS it might be Amazon or Hulu.

But I do agree, the more millions of people being iced out will ultimately mean less money. There might be subscriber and carriage rate fees but they know exactly how many devices are viewing a program and that will mean less advertising dollars.

 

[Orangezoo]

People keep saying this but Streaming Services have to buy the rights to stream the games. Instead of CBS it might be Amazon or Hulu.

But I do agree, the more millions of people being iced out will ultimately mean less money. There might be subscriber and carriage rate fees but they know exactly how many devices are viewing a program and that will mean less advertising dollars.

Yeah. Hulu is starting to become awful close to just being the streaming version of cable at this point. I don't say that as a good thing either. They are going to continue to price more people out. Only reason I actually have Hulu is for the ACCN and the wife has a few channels she likes.


I'm curious to see if Amazon will throw their name in the ring given they already have to a small extent for the NFL.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Man, you are so obsessed with BE basketball even though it is not the big east that exists in your memory.

It’s better than the one when I was in school with USF and Cincinatti. Creighton X Marquette do their part and that horrible program that won’t be mentioned rejoined and won a title.

ACC as it stands is great. If programs leave keep our FB team in whatever remains and go BE for everything else. Very simple and it’s a very good outcome as long as FB isn’t forced to go Indy to play BE hoops.

 

[shandeezy7]

Yeah. Hulu is starting to become awful close to just being the streaming version of cable at this point. I don't say that as a good thing either. They are going to continue to price more people out. Only reason I actually have Hulu is for the ACCN and the wife has a few channels she likes.


I'm curious to see if Amazon will throw their name in the ring given they already have to a small extent for the NFL.

Yeah when I find out what some people pay for Hulu or YouTube TV monthly, I just ask "why?" You basically pay the same price as I do for cable.

 

[PhatOrange]

Yeah. Hulu is starting to become awful close to just being the streaming version of cable at this point. I don't say that as a good thing either. They are going to continue to price more people out. Only reason I actually have Hulu is for the ACCN and the wife has a few channels she likes.


I'm curious to see if Amazon will throw their name in the ring given they already have to a small extent for the NFL.

Hulu is also owned by Disney...but you see them pick up deals with the NFL and now Direct TV and Amazon also have some sort of partnership with the NFL. Seeing what the Streaming Services are doing with the NFL is probably the thing to pay attention to.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I went to streaming and then I went back to cable because there was no difference. If I could get stand alone channels streaming I would do it, but the market has corrected a bit.

 

[PhatOrange]

Yeah when I find out what some people pay for Hulu or YouTube TV monthly, I just ask "why?" You basically pay the same price as I do for cable.

I pay $74 a month for YTTV. I was paying TW like $210 when I cut the cord 4 years ago. They still get me $74 a month for internet but I'm good. And I find YTTV a 1000x better than cable.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yeah when I find out what some people pay for Hulu or YouTube TV monthly, I just ask "why?" You basically pay the same price as I do for cable.

We are still 20 bucks or so less but it's closing quickly. Mind you that's for live tv... I presume you can still watch ESPN app and others with the basic Hulu sub.