ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

I more or less agree with this. That's definitely the desired end game of the SEC and B1G, and if you consider all possible outcomes where the ACC remains a power conference at the end, a big chunk of them have Notre Dame joining.

From Notre Dame's perspective, it appears to behoove them to wait until the last possible moment to join a conference, so that they can see exactly how the dust settles and weigh their options as far as scheduling goes. But, if they wait too long, they couldNo end up on the wrong end of all the power and leverage.

It may also have something to do with whether they want the ACC to survive with FSU and Clemson in it, or without, as well. Perhaps they fancy an ACC that does not have FSU or Clemson and believe that by joining it and staying in it, they can keep it as a power conference that is then easier to win. They're not exactly moving the chess pieces around the board themselves, so much as predicting which pieces are going to move and when, and trying to decide when to stop the game and freeze the board the way they want it.

ND could join and carve out a special deal.

 

[tep624]

ND could join and carve out a special deal.

I think the ACC being on a level with the SEC or B1G is eventually toast without that.

 

[RF2044]

Right. The Big 10 much prefers to retain member schools that serve as protective incubators for sex abusers.
They should really figure out which high horse they ought to be riding.

Literally has nothing to do with my post, but okay -- I can get behind that.

 

[Scotch]

I think the ACC being on a level with the SEC or B1G is eventually toast without that.

I think it’s toast regardless. Best case is in the same ballpark.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Chester A Arthur.

1881-1885

He was Collector of Customs in NYC.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Which OH born/raised President went to Cincy?

Grover Cleveland Alexander or Warren Harding is my guess

 

[sutomcat]

Grover Cleveland Alexander or Warren Harding is my guess

Grover Cleveland Alexander was a great pitcher but not much of a politicIan.

He played for Syracuse just prior to making it to the bigs. He was named for Grover Cleveland though….

Grover Cleveland Alexander - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Orangefan1]

Just saw that the BIG12 is eyeing the four Pac12 teams left this is just sucks

 

[WoadBlue]

Nah. Winning at a high breeds viewership. I mean, just look at Clemson. Where were they 20 years ago?

If schools like UNC, VaTech, Miami, SU, win at a high level then large viewership will absolutely follow. And then the media value of the league will increase.

20 years ago, Clemson had the most passionate and 2nd largest TV audience for ACC football (behind FSU).

 

[WoadBlue]

Just saw that the BIG12 is eyeing the four Pac12 teams left this is just sucks

If Fox and ESPN fund that, then they are fully allied to destroy both Pac and ACC.

 

[Bayside44]

If Fox and ESPN fund that, then they are fully allied to destroy both Pac and ACC.

The PAC is over.

Those schools, like the rest of the Big 12, have now where else to go, until 2030.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

How we gonna compete with this...

 

[Orangezoo]

Just saw that the BIG12 is eyeing the four Pac12 teams left this is just sucks

Where are you seeing this?

 

[Toga]

Hoover (assume since the Hoover Institute is at Stanford).

Grover Cleveland Alexander or Warren Harding is my guess

Grover Cleveland - Ma Ma where's my pa?

 

[Orangezoo]

Report: Cal, Stanford Could Land with Big 12 Under New Scenario If ACC Talks Fail

The Big 12 is attempting to make a late play for California and Stanford as the two schools continue to negotiate a potential move to the ACC. Per Michael…

www.google.com

There was a sf chronicle article just pushed out on this too but behind a paywall

 

[NashvilleOrange]

Report: Cal, Stanford Could Land with Big 12 Under New Scenario If ACC Talks Fail

The Big 12 is attempting to make a late play for California and Stanford as the two schools continue to negotiate a potential move to the ACC. Per Michael…

www.google.com

There was a sf chronicle article just pushed out on this too but behind a paywall

Thanks for the post. I think the criticism of the ACC's lack of action up to this point has largely been overblown. This, however, would be concrete evidence of administrators and the conference sitting on their hands and allowing an inferior conference to take the conference's lunch money.

 

[JrodCuse]

I could totally see this being a play to get the ACC in gear. When you’re the only person courting someone your eyes wander sometimes. But when others start going after that person your mindset changes a bit.

 

[Orangezoo]

View attachment 230562

I could totally see this being a play to get the ACC in gear. When you’re the only person courting someone your eyes wander sometimes. But when others start going after that person your mindset changes a bit.

Or the B12 has had time to think on it and see what is circulating while the ACC talks are ongoing and thinking with their GOR expiring sooner they might want to make a play to consider it for future leverage.

 

[pokercuse08]

This is very bad. This is probably Stanford/Cal trying to get a little leverage on the ACC to get off its butt and do something, which provides more leverage to FSU/Clemson/UNC to say, "Alright, you want to automatically be relegated to the scrap heap? Sit back and let the Big 12 take Stanford and Cal. We'll be fine, our tickets are punched. Or you can give us ~all the new revenue and we'll let you live."

The rest of the ACC schools should basically pay off the cheapest yes vote and move on. It is what it is at this point, this is naked capitalism. The best strategy here is to see what UNC would take in the form of success payouts that slant more towards hoops than football, then take that back to Clemson and say, "Make us a better offer that's football-friendly, or we buy the North Carolina votes."

 

[ECE '76]

Or the B12 has had time to think on it and see what is circulating while the ACC talks are ongoing and thinking with their GOR expiring sooner they might want to make a play to consider it for future leverage.

It's a shrewd move by the Big XII. But Stanford never wanted to join the Big XII. They still may opt for Independence. Stanford told the ACC a week ago they need an answer fast, like by Friday 8 days ago. UNC holds some cards and they are holding out for a one-sided deal. Gouging your conference mates is actually not doing yourself any favors. Cal is super desperate for $, so they may have to accept the Big XII.

 

[pokercuse08]

UNC holds some cards and they are holding out for a one-sided deal. Gouging your conference mates is actually not doing yourself any favors

Gouging your conference mates is absolutely doing yourself favors if you know you're a lock to get a B1G or SEC offer in a few years. What do UNC/FSU/Clemson care whether the ACC is left out in the cold in a few years or not? If they can get themselves an extra $10M a year they are absolutely incentivized to do it.

In fact, it may be to their advantage that the Big 12 survives and the ACC dies - if the teams left out of the final power conferences are in their region, it creates more of a recruiting vacuum they would benefit from.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Agree that many have said Stanford does not want to go to the Big 12 and may not if the ACC says no. May stay independent, at least for a few years to see if they can get into the B1G. Question for everyone - if the ACC doesn't get the 12 votes, and all 4 Pac12 schools that are left (or even 3) go to the Big12, how much hatred do the 11 ACC schools who want to expand have for FSU, Clemson & NC and how will that be manifested going forward? In other words -- is the ACC then just in hospice care waiting to expire? (Some will say they are now.) [Thanks for the comments. I'll hang up and listen.]

 

[Orangefan1]

We are so screwed because of four selfish self centered arrogant universities

 

[pokercuse08]

Question for everyone - if the ACC doesn't get the 12 votes, and all 4 Pac12 schools that are left (or even 3) go to the Big12, how much hatred do the 11 ACC schools who want to expand have for FSU, Clemson & NC and how will that be manifested going forward? In other words -- is the ACC then just in hospice care waiting to expire? (Some will say they are now.) [Thanks for the comments. I'll hang up and listen.]

At that point the ACC's last chance of survival would be a timeline where the GOR holds strong and the average payouts on the other conferences, especially the Big 12's, drop when they are up for renewal due to what's going on with streaming vs. cable. Then the ACC would be in pretty good shape until the GOR runs out in 2036, which may allow it to raid the Big 12. But at the end of the day, it would still get picked apart once it had to go to the same payout model as everyone else vis a vis streaming.

So yeah, I'd say it's pretty clear there will either be two or three power conferences when the dust settles. If the Big 12 absorbs the rest of the Pac 12, it's almost guaranteed to be the third power conference (if there is one) and pick off the rest of the ACC school leftovers.

Basically the B1G/SEC would grab FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA and probably NC State, Miami and Louisville. Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Duke would probably be on the big boy/Big 12 bubble. BC and Wake would probably be left for dead.

In a world where FSU, Clemson, and UNC screw the entire conference, the conference is highly incentivized to make sure they never get a single close call in a single game officiated by conference refs. But the question then becomes where the loyalties in the conference office actually lie.

 

[orange44]

We are so screwed because of four selfish self centered arrogant universities

Could not agree more!!