ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[qdawgg]

If we go by percentages of people think ACC or BIG12 what would people on here predict

Think/predict what?

 

[Toga]

Think/predict what?

 

[dasher]

If we go by percentages of people think ACC or BIG12 what would people on here predict

Let me give my vote on that. My vote is I don't care. Not even a little. Those two don't move the needle at all. There is a feeling among some here that hey, we need to do something. Anything. No. We don't. If we add them and the league can split up some additional money, okay. But it isn't a game changer either way. That is why while there are 4 schools voting no. There are a couple of schools, and I think we are one of them, that are tepid yes votes. There is a reason the Big 12 didn't take these two the first go around.

 

[Chris02M]

Let me give my vote on that. My vote is I don't care. Not even a little. Those two don't move the needle at all. There is a feeling among some here that hey, we need to do something. Anything. No. We don't. If we add them and the league can split up some additional money, okay. But it isn't a game changer either way. That is why while there are 4 schools voting no. There are a couple of schools, and I think we are one of them, that are tepid yes votes. There is a reason the Big 12 didn't take these two the first go around.

because the schools don't love the academics of the big 12

 

[pokercuse08]

The only way the B12 gets left out of the playoffs is if the SEC and B18 create their own FB sub division. In which case it does not matter whether the ACC or B12 wins the #3 crown. There is no significant advantage for either the ACC or B12 in winning that title. So again, why do we care?

Whether or not the #3 conference gets into the playoffs is going to depend on how many programs in the conference are considered strong enough that a national title that excludes them is illegitimate.

In a world where the Big 12 is the #3 conference, the ACC has been picked to the bone and the Big 12 has picked up the remainders. It's a best of the rest conference of misfits and you can pretty much exclude it. In a world where the ACC is the #3 conference, there's at least a chance it maintains enough quality programs to have a strong case against being excluded outright. It might be that the B1G and SEC each get like 5 teams in, the ACC gets 1, and the rest get 1, or something like that... But it could still have a seat.

It could also be raided enough to not have enough quality programs left to get that seat, in which case it only matters to the extent we want the best conference fit we can get for Syracuse at that point. I'm just rooting for the best options for SU - first, to have enough success and for the criteria to shift enough to get into the B1G and if not to end up in a conference that still has a seat at the table and if not to be in the best conference fit for us. To me, all the best non-B1G options are in the ACC.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Grover Cleveland Alexander was a great pitcher but not much of a politicIan.

He played for Syracuse just prior to making it to the bigs. He was named for Grover Cleveland though….

Grover Cleveland Alexander - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Wow, 29-11 for the Syracuse Stars, who knew!

 

[SU68]

Hoover (assume since the Hoover Institute is at Stanford).

Would you include Duke?
Duke does not officially claim any national championships. The 1936 team was retroactively named national champions by Berryman (QRPS), a mathematical rating system designed by Clyde P. Berryman in 1990. The NCAA recognizes the Berryman title in its official NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision records.[101] James Howell, a football historian, also selected Duke as 1936 national champions using his Football Power Ratings formula.[102]

Ray Bryne, a minor selector, chose the 1941 Blue Devils as national champions.[103]

Tricky Dick graduated from the Law School.

 

[Chris02M]

take with a grain of salt but.

 

[Acesn8s]

Guys got less followers than me I have a feeling with no inside knowledge the big 12 swoops in and gets this deal done. ACC seems to be waiting to die because a few schools are convinced they are going to greener pastures. Maybe they will maybe they won’t. I hope FSU and Clemson lose every game from here on out.

 

[Chris02M]

Guys got less followers than me I have a feeling with no inside knowledge the big 12 swoops in and gets this deal done. ACC seems to be waiting to die because a few schools are convinced they are going to greener pastures. Maybe they will maybe they won’t. I hope FSU and Clemson lose every game from here on out.

the acc schools have no way of leaving the conference right now or anytime soon without tons of money. If they were waiting to do they wouldnt be putting time into discussing them

 

[Toga]

UMass to the B1G.

 

[JimBoston]

Think about this, if I asked everyone here if adding Stanford/Cal/SMU would enhance and stabilize the ACC, I would have been laughed at. Stanford is very good at sports outside of football and basketball, and Cal has not been good at football or basketball. SMU? No fanbase, but deep pocket donors. Did I mention the three schools were 14-23 in football and 27-70 in basketball last year? What do these three schools bring to the ACC?

And, why would Stanford and Cal , top academic schools, want to have their non-revenue sport teams travel all over the country?

If I were the ACC leadership, I would add USF and UConn. These adds would make the ACC the top conference in Florida with 3 teams (think UCF can recruit against USF if they are in the ACC?) and UConn to restore the ACC as the top basketball conference, solidify the Northeast, and create rivals for Syracuse and Boston College which are desperately needed. And, if the ACC implodes, the ACC would have a Florida presence with USF, a strong Northeast presence, and would probably be the #1 or #2 basketball conference.

 

[HtownOrange]

Agree that many have said Stanford does not want to go to the Big 12 and may not if the ACC says no. May stay independent, at least for a few years to see if they can get into the B1G. Question for everyone - if the ACC doesn't get the 12 votes, and all 4 Pac12 schools that are left (or even 3) go to the Big12, how much hatred do the 11 ACC schools who want to expand have for FSU, Clemson & NC and how will that be manifested going forward? In other words -- is the ACC then just in hospice care waiting to expire? (Some will say they are now.) [Thanks for the comments. I'll hang up and listen.]

The internet blowhards are talking from their nether regions. ESPN has the ACC locked in for what is a real steal in hindsight. However, ESPN and the ACC both know the discrepancy cannot continue. Presently, the ACC actually has more influence over their deal than many think, specifically, the ACC is paid more than the ESPN guarantee because of ad revenue. This proves the ACC is better than most blowhards think, more than many on this site believe. Then there is the look-ins, ESPN is no fool.

ESPN has zero incentive to simply pay the ACC its true value when they have a great deal in their favor. Further, FSU can talk all they want, they cannot go anywhere unless ESPN agrees to allow FSU out of their deal. If ESPN has no incentive to pay the ACC more of its own volition, they have less to incentive to allow FSU to leave to the SEC, pay them more and devalue the ACC, and far less incentive to let FSU become a Fox property in the B1G. Especially as ESPN is the main profit center in the Disney Empire (the new Evil Empire?).

When one considers ESPN presently has 30/31 properties, much of the east coast and goes form New York to Texas, and possibly California...one may conclude ESPN has no intention of giving up anything to Fox.

Further, while every school is having back channel discussions, there cannot be substantive offers until the end of the GOR is near. Few ACC schools can afford to leave early and those that can are less likely to buy their way out. The ACC will hold for at least 10 more years unless there is a ton of cash infusion.

Then the cable to streaming transition will have progressed another decade, give or take. We will have a better idea of the value of the TV deals. The B1G, SEC, and Big12 all come up for new deals before the ACC does.

All in all, FSU cannot leave, they lack the money and a place to go, but mostly, they lack the permission of the ACC and ESPN to to leave. The remaining schools will despise FSU if they don't change turn down the rhetoric. Clemson, UNC, and NCState will face less irate opposition. Whether the ACC falls apart after the GOR remains open for debate. Still, it is hard to believe ESPN will allow properties to leave for their primary competition without making a substantive offer to keep them in the fold. Whether ESPN rolls the ACC intio the SEC, can be debated, but one cannot justify allowing profit centers to be transferred to a competitor, it lacks all business sense to do so.

 

[pokercuse08]

If I were the ACC leadership, I would add USF and UConn. These adds would make the ACC the top conference in Florida

Cmon, USF does not move the needle right now. They're a backfill in case of emergency option if/when FSU and Miami are poached.

and would probably be the #1 or #2 basketball conference.

People keep saying stuff like this and ignoring the fact that if the B1G and SEC become the only two superpower conferences and relegate everything else to a second tier, their massive financial advantage IS going to elevate their basketball programs over time and sink the basketball programs left behind. Perhaps not all of them, perhaps not immediately, but keep pouring more money into those 40-60 superpower programs and over time that advantage will play out.

 

[HtownOrange]

For kicks and grins:

Predicting the next round of college football expansion for the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12...and Notre Dame

What is next for the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 for conference expansion??

rutgerswire.usatoday.com

A shallow, general internet perception with the usual biases but the SU reference is an interesting take:

• Syracuse – Was once an AAU member but isn’t anymore. An attractive option because Syracuse would enhance the Big Ten market in terms of ratings (New York City already exists with Rutgers but would add Buffalo and Syracuse markets).

 

[pokercuse08]

Especially as ESPN is the main profit center in the Disney Empire

I wouldn't quite put it that way...

ESPN used to be Disney’s cash cow. Now, its revenue is declining, and Bob Iger is looking to sell a stake

The sports network depends on cable TV for revenue. But cable is on the decline since the rise of streaming.

fortune.com

You do make good points regarding FSU not really being able to go to the SEC. I mean, they're probably just saber rattling right now to try to get a favorable cut of the new money coming in.

 

[HtownOrange]

I wouldn't quite put it that way...

ESPN used to be Disney’s cash cow. Now, its revenue is declining, and Bob Iger is looking to sell a stake

The sports network depends on cable TV for revenue. But cable is on the decline since the rise of streaming.

fortune.com

You do make good points regarding FSU not really being able to go to the SEC. I mean, they're probably just saber rattling right now to try to get a favorable cut of the new money coming in.

I cannot read your link, I don’t have access.

Could Big Tech Drive ESPN Out of Business? | The Motley Fool

The worldwide leader in sports has some deep-pocketed competition.

www.fool.com

This link shows ESPN made $8.5BB in profit, not revenue, last year. That was more than 1/3 of Disney’s profit. ESPN is a cash cow. Disney’s streaming issues are the problem and the apparent goal of Iger to partner with someone to iron them out. This has been discussed ad nauseam in this thread, ESPN’s streaming stinks in comparison to Apple, Amazon, and Hulu (which is admittedly weird as Hulu is largely owned by Disney). Regardless, ESPN holds the rights and production capabilities while lacking the high quality streaming capabilities, partnering with a big tech company makes sense to bring the two components together.

 

[tep624]

For kicks and grins:

Predicting the next round of college football expansion for the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12...and Notre Dame

What is next for the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 for conference expansion??

rutgerswire.usatoday.com

A shallow, general internet perception with the usual biases but the SU reference is an interesting take:

• Syracuse – Was once an AAU member but isn’t anymore. An attractive option because Syracuse would enhance the Big Ten market in terms of ratings (New York City already exists with Rutgers but would add Buffalo and Syracuse markets).

Yeah I mean any article that talks about UCONN delivering the New England market makes me chuckle. Lol.

 

[TexanMark]

Yeah I mean any article that talks about UCONN delivering the New England market makes me chuckle. Lol.

In hoops they have some reach but Football they have little.

Let's see how they do in Football this season to get a feel if they are picking up fans.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Whether or not the #3 conference gets into the playoffs is going to depend on how many programs in the conference are considered strong enough that a national title that excludes them is illegitimate.

In a world where the Big 12 is the #3 conference, the ACC has been picked to the bone and the Big 12 has picked up the remainders. It's a best of the rest conference of misfits and you can pretty much exclude it. In a world where the ACC is the #3 conference, there's at least a chance it maintains enough quality programs to have a strong case against being excluded outright. It might be that the B1G and SEC each get like 5 teams in, the ACC gets 1, and the rest get 1, or something like that... But it could still have a seat.

It could also be raided enough to not have enough quality programs left to get that seat, in which case it only matters to the extent we want the best conference fit we can get for Syracuse at that point. I'm just rooting for the best options for SU - first, to have enough success and for the criteria to shift enough to get into the B1G and if not to end up in a conference that still has a seat at the table and if not to be in the best conference fit for us. To me, all the best non-B1G options are in the ACC.

Your playoff take is pure Kook Theory. It is interesting how the Kook infestation has happened. It started in WV and then evolved into B12anon. Then FSU fans and even their administration became infected. Now we are seeing them in the B18, probably because they have an inferiority complex due to never winning any titles. Kooks come out with theory and it gets parroted so many times people start to believe it.

To create the 12 team playoff EVERYONE had to agree to it. In order to get the G5 on board there had to be a pathway for them to make the playoffs. Why would the PAC going away change that? So the theory now is that the B18/SEC will shut out the merged ACC/B12 and the G5 from the playoffs? Why would the majority of schools in FBS agree to that? The only way the B18/SEC can close the playoffs is if they leave FBS, in which case who wins the #3 conference war is totally meaningless.

What is more likely to happen is going down to 5 conference champs. And if one of the ACC/B12 goes away down to 4 conference champs. In that case the #3 conference will have an auto bid AND get a 2nd team into the playoffs from time to time. So again who wins the #3 war is totally meaningless.

 

[721Comstock]

UMass to the B1G.

Imminent!!!

 

[Cuse181]

Fan bases grow a bit with lots of winning, and a bit more when that winning lasts for more than just 3 or 4 years in a row. But real fan bases are there when the team loses. SoCar football left the ACC with a winning record against only UVA and Wake, and was then, 1970-71, averaging close to 65,000 per game. SoCar with a lot of 5 and 6 win teams and not a single team finishing Top 10 ever, was averaging about 70,000 when it got the SEC offer.

That is the kind of football fan base that always matters. Without that fanbase, SoCXar would not have gotten invited by the SEC.

Attendance and TV viewership are 2 different things. You draw more eyeballs if you’re winning, if you’re really good you draw a lot more eyeballs. Selling out games means diddly squat to ESPN.

 

[richmondcuse03]

I cannot read your link, I don’t have access.

Could Big Tech Drive ESPN Out of Business? | The Motley Fool

The worldwide leader in sports has some deep-pocketed competition.

www.fool.com

This link shows ESPN made $8.5BB in profit, not revenue, last year. That was more than 1/3 of Disney’s profit. ESPN is a cash cow. Disney’s streaming issues are the problem and the apparent goal of Iger to partner with someone to iron them out. This has been discussed ad nauseam in this thread, ESPN’s streaming stinks in comparison to Apple, Amazon, and Hulu (which is admittedly weird as Hulu is largely owned by Disney). Regardless, ESPN holds the rights and production capabilities while lacking the high quality streaming capabilities, partnering with a big tech company makes sense to bring the two components together.

And why it’s probably going to end up in the hands of a PE owner or at least a partial ownership so they can transition the business model outside of the public markets. I predict Disney monetizes most of the stake with a PE firm taking it private.

 

[Chris02M]

i couldnt read the article but figured if he is posting it is likely to still happen

 

[Cuse181]

Think about this, if I asked everyone here if adding Stanford/Cal/SMU would enhance and stabilize the ACC, I would have been laughed at. Stanford is very good at sports outside of football and basketball, and Cal has not been good at football or basketball. SMU? No fanbase, but deep pocket donors. Did I mention the three schools were 14-23 in football and 27-70 in basketball last year? What do these three schools bring to the ACC?

And, why would Stanford and Cal , top academic schools, want to have their non-revenue sport teams travel all over the country?

If I were the ACC leadership, I would add USF and UConn. These adds would make the ACC the top conference in Florida with 3 teams (think UCF can recruit against USF if they are in the ACC?) and UConn to restore the ACC as the top basketball conference, solidify the Northeast, and create rivals for Syracuse and Boston College which are desperately needed. And, if the ACC implodes, the ACC would have a Florida presence with USF, a strong Northeast presence, and would probably be the #1 or #2 basketball conference.

I can’t think of worse expansion candidates than USF and UConn… talk about bringing zero value. Obviously there are worse options but bad is bad, and those 2 are bad