ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[EnviroSciGuy]

That's my point in this case... what money? Do we think this new Pac-12 is going to secure a media rights windfall much better than the Mountain West?

Right now the MW pulls in $45M a year from CBS and FOX. That deal expires after the 25-26 season. They cut a deal recently with TNT Sports to put games on Max and truTV but I don't believe it was for much money.

The AAC signed a deal in 2019 that pays them $83M/year. If the MW held together I would think they'd double their existing deal, simply due to market conditions.

So that's the baseline for these 4 schools moving to the P12. How much will a reconstituted P12 make over what the MW was going to get in their next deal. +10%? +30%?

Forgive my rambling posts here, I'm just working through this in my mind!

They must believe that the P12 brand is worth it, and the remaining two schools do have a gigantic warchest for offsetting the departure fees. I agree with other posters that have said UNLV and/or Nevada will be in. The P12 might be having some issues enticing all of their target schools, for exactly the reasons you mentioned.

I'd love to see an out-of-the-box move like bringing in UBC or Simon Fraser, two huge Canadian names/brands from Vancouver. SF has found that it's very difficult to compete in NCAA D2, and dropped their football program this year after struggling to find a conference. P12 money would cure those ills, and Vancouver has a stadium for it...

 

[Hoo's That]

I still don't understand how the Rose Bowl will be played and who.

If it's not part of the Playoff, then a B1G and an old Pac-12 team will play. Old Pac-12 teams will fill what were the old Pac-12 Bowl slots this year, like the Sun Bowl vs. an ACC team.

 

[WoadBlue]

That's my point in this case... what money? Do we think this new Pac-12 is going to secure a media rights windfall much better than the Mountain West?

Right now the MW pulls in $45M a year from CBS and FOX. That deal expires after the 25-26 season. They cut a deal recently with TNT Sports to put games on Max and truTV but I don't believe it was for much money.

The AAC signed a deal in 2019 that pays them $83M/year. If the MW held together I would think they'd double their existing deal, simply due to market conditions.

So that's the baseline for these 4 schools moving to the P12. How much will a reconstituted P12 make over what the MW was going to get in their next deal. +10%? +30%?

Forgive my rambling posts here, I'm just working through this in my mind!

I would think that the 3 most valuable members of the MWC now are San Diego St, Fresno St, and Boise St. If so, that trip joining the Pac will diminish greatly what the MWC can get in any new deal.

The Pac will need at least 2 more members to be recognized as a conference for FBS playoffs and bowls. If I am Nevada-Reno or UNLV or New Mexico, I want to be Pac, and I know I can get a good hearing.

 

[All4SU]

I would think that the 3 most valuable members of the MWC now are San Diego St, Fresno St, and Boise St. If so, that trip joining the Pac will diminish greatly what the MWC can get in any new deal.

The Pac will need at least 2 more members to be recognized as a conference for FBS playoffs and bowls. If I am Nevada-Reno or UNLV or New Mexico, I want to be Pac, and I know I can get a good hearing.

Yup, UNLV seems made to order for them.

 

[Scooch]

I'm not sure UNLV has nearly as much value as the "LV" in their name suggests.

We're 30+ years past their hoops glory days. Their football program is awful and has been for decades.

Plus, within a few years their home market will have a pro team in all 4 major North American leagues. Good luck competing for attention.

And, it's not a huge market to begin with. Las Vegas is 40th in the U.S., behind such behemoths as West Palm Beach, Greenville and Hartford.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

And, it's not a huge market to begin with. Las Vegas is 40th in the U.S., behind such behemoths as West Palm Beach, Greenville and Hartford.

UConn to the PAC-12 confirmed!!!

 

[OrangeFreek]

Syracuse to the B1G maybe

 

[TexanMark]

PAC12...they need to add UNM and UNLV. Stop at 8

Rename themselves the PAC8.

 

[Sherman20]

If the ACC raided the Big 12 for a westward expansion to join with the newly adddd teams, who are the top targets?

Utah, Arizona and Arizona State? Houston, Texas Tech and Baylor? What about Kansas?

 

[TexanMark]

If the ACC raided the Big 12 for a westward expansion to join with the newly adddd teams, who are the top targets?

Utah, Arizona and Arizona State? Houston, Texas Tech and Baylor? What about Kansas?

You want brands going forward. Cable boxes will mean less in 2030.

I'd grab 3 of ASU, AZ, CO and Utah or BYU to build a west pod. Build a 5 team pod.

 

[All4SU]

I'm not sure UNLV has nearly as much value as the "LV" in their name suggests.

We're 30+ years past their hoops glory days. Their football program is awful and has been for decades.

Plus, within a few years their home market will have a pro team in all 4 major North American leagues. Good luck competing for attention.

And, it's not a huge market to begin with. Las Vegas is 40th in the U.S., behind such behemoths as West Palm Beach, Greenville and Hartford.

Still it seems like Vegas, as a destination market, would be appealing.

 

[TexanMark]

Still it seems like Vegas, as a destination market, would be appealing.

Agreed but Vegas is building into a pro first city filled with lots of transplants. I think the new PAC8/10/12 is their ceiling

 

[Qbobby]

and Hartford.

 

[tep624]

PAC12...they need to add UNM and UNLV. Stop at 8

Rename themselves the PAC8.

They need to be hyper strategic right now. I doubt they will be able to attract the Big 12 teams that the ACC would likely target. So they should be thinking about long-term programs they can elevate, like UNLV and UNM, and then whom they would target from the Big 12 when the ACC eventually drops that shoe.

 

[Chip]

I'm not sure UNLV has nearly as much value as the "LV" in their name suggests.

We're 30+ years past their hoops glory days. Their football program is awful and has been for decades.

Plus, within a few years their home market will have a pro team in all 4 major North American leagues. Good luck competing for attention.

And, it's not a huge market to begin with. Las Vegas is 40th in the U.S., behind such behemoths as West Palm Beach, Greenville and Hartford.

That makes sense. I guess in this game of picking the king of the dipsh!ts, it seemed like as attractive a school as, say, Fresno State or Colorado State.

They seem to be on a bit of an upswing since they started playing in Allegiant Stadium. 2 wins to 5 wins to 9 wins.

Pac still needs to find 2 more, or this will all have been for nothing.

 

[Scooch]

That makes sense. I guess in this game of picking the king of the dipsh!ts, it seemed like as attractive a school as, say, Fresno State or Colorado State.

They seem to be on a bit of an upswing since they started playing in Allegiant Stadium. 2 wins to 5 wins to 9 wins.

Pac still needs to find 2 more, or this will all have been for nothing.

I'm just spit balling.

I do think the Pac-12 is pursuing that Sixteen Candles strategy. OSU and WSU have had recent football success. Add 4 of the best schools from the MW, and then maybe add 2 or 4 top tier schools from other Group of 5 leagues.

Then they set themselves up as the conference most likely to land that 5th auto-qualifier spot most years.

Land a TV deal that pays $10-15 million per team each year. That's about the best a non-Power 4 school can hope for these days.

 

[Chip]

I'm just spit balling.

I do think the Pac-12 is pursuing that Sixteen Candles strategy. OSU and WSU have had recent football success. Add 4 of the best schools from the MW, and then maybe add 2 or 4 top tier schools from other Group of 5 leagues.

Then they set themselves up as the conference most likely to land that 5th auto-qualifier spot most years.

Land a TV deal that pays $10-15 million per team each year. That's about the best a non-Power 4 school can hope for these days.

Hoping and praying that the logistics of the national conferences are just too much to handle. Especially for the non revenue sports.

Doubtful, but when hope and prayers are all you have, then why not.

 

[GreekFreak]

They should invite FSU maybe they’d win a few games.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

IMO a school's home attendance is correlated to a team's FB value. It is interesting that the Top 4 MWC schools in avg attendance the last 5 real years (2018 to 2023 minus 2020), were the 4 schools selected. The only other MWC school over 21,500 was Air Force at 25,920.

The best remaining G5 schools over 25k and who I think the P12 will and should target next:

ECU 35,875
USF 34,281
Memphis 31,796
Navy 31,261
Army 29,522
App State 28,900
Air Force 25,920
UTSA 25,810


I think ECU, USF, Memphis, UTSA (startup program and large stadium in place already) are all no brainers. I think App State would be hurt by ECU. Do you really want 2 schools in NC? Then you have the 3 service academies. I think those would be nice adds. However if they were going that route, wouldn't they have taken Air Force over CSU? Also Army/Navy would be FB only.

Other possibilities IMO...

JMU- but they have a smaller stadium (24,169 avg since moving to FBS)

Temple- in Philly, easy for travel, pro stadium, good BBall history. But they have no fans. The team has stunk lately and no one shows up. Only avg 15,362 the last two years (22,023 for 2018-23 avg).

UConn- huge BBall program and near NYC/Boston. But only avg 20,116 per game. Although the last 2 years they are better at 23,377 per game. And would they really leave the Big East for this version of the P12? It would be funny if they got left behind again though.

Tulane- another easy in and out location. They have been pretty decent the last few years and attendance has reflected that (23,313 last 2 years). But for all of 2018-2023 they are only at 19,897 per game.

Do you think about a 2nd team in Texas (Rice, NT, Texas State, UTEP)? A 2nd in Florida (FAU)? Decent programs in smaller states (Troy, UAB, USM, Marshall, Jacksonville State)? Toledo? They are a good program and without midweek MACtion and better opponents they would likely get more people at games (19,884 avg). Plus they would have a recruiting advantage being in the P12 over the rest fo the Ohio MACs.


If you go to 6 from the East then I think they have to take ECU, USF, Memphis, UTSA, Tulane, JMU.

 

[ClkWrkOrange]

They should invite FSU maybe they’d win a few games.

Can the Pac-12 really add Florida State and Clemson?

The Pac-12 adding Florida State and Clemson would be enough of an enticement for Stanford and Cal to return to the Pac-12. Can the unthinkable happen?

trojanswire.usatoday.com

Clown show time.

 

[Orangeman]

I'm not sure UNLV has nearly as much value as the "LV" in their name suggests.

We're 30+ years past their hoops glory days. Their football program is awful and has been for decades.

Plus, within a few years their home market will have a pro team in all 4 major North American leagues. Good luck competing for attention.

And, it's not a huge market to begin with. Las Vegas is 40th in the U.S., behind such behemoths as West Palm Beach, Greenville and Hartford.

Karma bust here, UNLV may well be favored when we play them later this season

 

[tep624]

Karma bust here, UNLV may well be favored when we play them later this season

We're currently 30th and they're 38th in the AP poll. We received 63 votes, UNLV 7.

There is an outside chance that if both teams go to 4-0, that we could both be ranked heading into that game. We would have the only top 25 win so even under that scenario, as long as we handle Stanford and HC appropriately I think we'd be favored.

It would be great if UNLV is ranked for that game - only helps our resume.

 

[Scooch]

Hoping and praying that the logistics of the national conferences are just too much to handle. Especially for the non revenue sports.

Doubtful, but when hope and prayers are all you have, then why not.

It would all be so much better if football was peeled off to be its own thing. And then schools could align all their other sports back into geographically logical conferences.

What we have now is so impossibly stupid.

 

[David321]

We're currently 30th and their 38th in the AP poll. We received 63 votes, UNLV 7.

There is an outside chance that if both teams go to 4-0, that we could both be ranked heading into that game. We would have the only top 25 win so even under that scenario, as long as we handle Stanford and HC appropriately I think we'd be favored.

It would be great if UNLV is ranked for that game - only helps our resume.

Our easy resume suddenly doesn't seem so easy anymore. I remember in the off season our schedule was rated as the easiest in FBS, last I heard it was in the 70s now.

 

[tep624]

Our easy resume suddenly doesn't seem so easy anymore. I remember in the off season our schedule was rated as the easiest in FBS, last I heard it was in the 70s now.

Yeah it's getting stronger by the week as the pretenders (FSU for example) are dropping off.