ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[oldpinepoint]

 

[RF2044]

I posted this article in today daily articles but I thought I would re-post it here with a special emphasis on one paragraph.

Reports: ACC had meeting set on adding Pac-12 schools before 'Big' departures

Friday was a wild day in college sports that saw a 'Power 5' conference consumed by two of its peers to the tune of five schools in one day. And the ACC was rep

www.tigernet.com

...
News & Observer reporter Andrew Carter confirmed that report and confirmed the idea that that kind of Western expansion is unlikely now for the league. Carter reported that an ACC/Pac-12 merger would've cost ACC schools between $1-3 million per year in TV revenue, saying that "no remaining P12 school brought value to the league."
...

There was an earlier report that the ACC could add members as they chose and the new members would get full payment. This report makes things look like that was not accurate.

This explains why the ACC was maybe not quite as eager to add the P12 refugees as the B12. Guessing that the B12 is also taking a haircut to add the P12 schools to their league. Guessing they are willing to take a short term hit to have extra schools in place in case another raid comes. Or maybe just because they are thinking there is strength in numbers.

...which debunks the narrative that the ACC did nothing / wasn't proactive enough. In fact, they DID kick the tires and explored whether expanding would add tangible value, and didn't get the answer they were looking for. So, they strategically declined.

And this is what I've been suggesting about several of those schools going to the Big 12. Good for the Big 12, in a land grab kind of way. But they snared the equivalent of Mediterranean Avenue and Baltic Avenue.

 

[sutomcat]

So its my understanding the new Big12 GOR runs through 2030-31, I believe. The ACC's GOR runs through 2036 I think. Wouldn't that mean that the Big 12 would be the next conference picked apart if the SEC, Big 10, and even the ACC look to expand down the road? I would think whatever program sees a significant expansion in ratings, attendance, national fan abse, etc would likely be a target for one of those 3 conferences, given their respective geographic needs.

The thing is, will anyone want any of the B12 schools? They don't have a lot of big name traditional football powers. In fact, they have none.

I don't see the SEC or the B1G having any interest in any of their programs.

Now the ACC on the other hand, might look to add a couple of the better B12 schools to position itself for the inevitable run at ACC schools that will probably come a few years later.

I could see a scenario where they add 4 schools to serve as long term replacements when some ACC schools defect.

Maybe the ACC adds WVU, UC, UCF and UConn in 2030 or so.

And then maybe the ACC loses NC, UVa, GT and VT to the B1G in 2034.

A lot depends on the deals offered to the B12 before 2030-31. You can bet they will want the bidding on their new contract(s) to start early and will hope for significantly higher revenue numbers than the ACC is paying. I think the ACC TV payout will be in the range of $46 million in 2031 and it is up in the $56 range by 2036.

That is going to be hard for the B12 to reach given what is going on with cable and revenue numbers right now.

A lot can change from now to then but it looks like all is not lost for the ACC right now. They sit in a pretty good spot.

 

[Chip]

Which is why I think the SEC may end up doing something. The B10 really didn’t need to expand except to increase its size (not sure you were definitely saying or alluding to this as well). That’s a threat to the SEC, imo.

I think USC-UCLA was to keep up with the SEC’s Texas-Oklahoma move.

I think Oregon-Washington was a combo of brands and realizing the USC-UCLA travel logistics weren’t sustainable.

 

[Cusefan69]

The thing is, will anyone want any of the B12 schools? They don't have a lot of big name traditional football powers. In fact, they have none.

I don't see the SEC or the B1G having any interest in any of their programs.

Now the ACC on the other hand, might look to add a couple of the better B12 schools to position itself for the inevitable run at ACC schools that will probably come a few years later.

I could see a scenario where they add 4 schools to server as long term replacements when some ACC schools defect.

Maybe the ACC adds WVU, UC, UCF and UConn in 2030 or so.

And then maybe the ACC loses NC, UVa, GT and VT to the B1G in 2034.

A lot depends on the deals offered to the B12 before 2030-31. You can bet they will want the bidding on their new contract(s) to start early and will hope for significantly higher revenue numbers than the ACC is paying. I think the ACC TV payout will be in the range of $46 million in 2031 and it is up in the $56 range by 2036.

That is going to be hard for the B12 to reach given what is going on with cable and revenue numbers right now.

A lot can change from now to then but it looks like all is not lost for the ACC right now. They sit in a pretty good spot.

Also depends on when B10 and SEC renewals are as well. If both the B10 and SEC want more, it may come from the B12 barrels.

 

[Toga]

I needed one more fare to make my night.

 

[Cuse'91]

SEC unlikely to stay at 16. Mostly will expand East, as there are too many tempting targets. Still, maybe grab Kansas out West someday? BB Blueblood, borders rival Mizzou; although Arkansas can be called Missouri's main rival, I suppose.

 

[kcsu]

The thing is, will anyone want any of the B12 schools? They don't have a lot of big name traditional football powers. In fact, they have none.

I don't see the SEC or the B1G having any interest in any of their programs.

Now the ACC on the other hand, might look to add a couple of the better B12 schools to position itself for the inevitable run at ACC schools that will probably come a few years later.

I could see a scenario where they add 4 schools to server as long term replacements when some ACC schools defect.

Maybe the ACC adds WVU, UC, UCF and UConn in 2030 or so.

And then maybe the ACC loses NC, UVa, GT and VT to the B1G in 2034.

A lot depends on the deals offered to the B12 before 2030-31. You can bet they will want the bidding on their new contract(s) to start early and will hope for significantly higher revenue numbers than the ACC is paying. I think the ACC TV payout will be in the range of $46 million in 2031 and it is up in the $56 range by 2036.

That is going to be hard for the B12 to reach given what is going on with cable and revenue numbers right now.

A lot can change from now to then but it looks like all is not lost for the ACC right now. They sit in a pretty good spot.

Tom as usual spot on. Syracuse needs to take care of its business which it is doing, and we are going to be fine. SU brings NYC and brings an amazing brand in multiple sports that matter. Syracuse is known around the world not just in the US. Stay competitive and we are in regardless of what happens.

 

[Orangezoo]

Can we call "not it" on that road trip for a few years?

 

[sutomcat]

SEC unlikely to stay at 16. Mostly will expand East, as there are too many tempting targets. Still, maybe grab Kansas out West someday? BB Blueblood, borders rival Mizzou; although Arkansas can be called Missouri's main rival, I suppose.

I see the B1G going after UNC and UVa. Those appear to be the schools they really want.

To get them, they might also have to take NC State and VT.

And they might do that. It keeps the SEC out of NC and Va.

Just don't see these great academic institutions in the same conference as many of the SEC schools. They don't belong there and they should have their choice where they go.

Anyway, if the B1G closes off top choices in NC and Va, what does the SEC do?

Take Wake or Duke? No.

Take James Madison or Liberty? No.

Do they take FSU, who Florida desperately does not want in the SEC?

Do they take Clemson, who South Carolina desperately does not want in the SEC?

Texas A&M did not want Texas in the SEC and got voted down. But they were a newcomer.

I think Florida and South Carolina might have more pull. And I am not sure adding those programs does much to elevate the SEC. If they take them, it is only to block the B1G from taking them.

The B1G might want FSU and Clemson. But they might be all full at the inn by then. 4 more schools is a lot to take in. But if my math is right, adding 6 more gets the B1G to 24, which seems like a good number to stop at. So it might just happen.

 

[qdawgg]

I think USC-UCLA was to keep up with the SEC’s Texas-Oklahoma move.

I think Oregon-Washington was a combo of brands and realizing the USC-UCLA travel logistics weren’t sustainable.

Good point. IMO, they've now grown big enough and all of the rumblings still indicate the B10 will try to expand further when they can. I think the SEC will be potentially proactive at some point.

Maybe closer to the end of the ACC GOR you end up having the SEC and B10 collectively destroy the ACC. That's a ways away but if that happens, Syracuse ends up somewhere. B10 is my guess because it gives them a legit eastern type conference. This wouldn't be the worst outcome IMO. Maybe we're in a pod of Pitt, Ped state, Rutgers, etc.

 

[shantydaze]

. . . . The B1G might want FSU and Clemson. . . .

I feel like this was a rumor floated by FSU to further its agenda of leaving the ACC and to entice the SEC into giving them an invite.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That makes me think the ACC was late to the party.

For travel IMO you need at least 5. Two makes little sense. Maybe ASU and Utah can pull a TCU and have this make a little sense.

 

[Cuse'91]

I see the B1G going after UNC and UVa. Those appear to be the schools they really want.

To get them, they might also have to take NC State and VT.

And they might do that. It keeps the SEC out of NC and Va.

Just don't see these great academic institutions in the same conference as many of the SEC schools. They don't belong there and they should have their choice where they go.

Anyway, if the B1G closes off top choices in NC and Va, what does the SEC do?

Take Wake or Duke? No.

Take James Madison or Liberty? No.

Do they take FSU, who Florida desperately does not want in the SEC?

Do they take Clemson, who South Carolina desperately does not want in the SEC?

Texas A&M did not want Texas in the SEC and got voted down. But they were a newcomer.

I think Florida and South Carolina might have more pull. And I am not sure adding those programs does much to elevate the SEC. If they take them, it is only to block the B1G from taking them.

The B1G might want FSU and Clemson. But they might be all full at the inn by then. 4 more schools is a lot to take in. But if my math is right, adding 6 more gets the B1G to 24, which seems like a good number to stop at. So it might just happen.

FSU and Clemson to SEC makes too much sense. SC and UF are just going to have to get over it. Alabama and Auburn have to share; Tennessee and Mississippi are 2 school states as well.
Still think B1G wants Georgia(Atlanta) and Florida(Miami) TV markets, and recruiting grounds.
My dream scenario would be if SEC decides it needs to counter the B1G in the NorthEast.
But, in 10 years, it might be all about subscriptions, and not location?

 

[cusefan88]

Big Ten should just bite the bullet and take Cal/Stanford. Oregon State and Washington State join the Mountain West.

 

[tep624]

I see the B1G going after UNC and UVa. Those appear to be the schools they really want.

To get them, they might also have to take NC State and VT.

And they might do that. It keeps the SEC out of NC and Va.

Just don't see these great academic institutions in the same conference as many of the SEC schools. They don't belong there and they should have their choice where they go.

Anyway, if the B1G closes off top choices in NC and Va, what does the SEC do?

Take Wake or Duke? No.

Take James Madison or Liberty? No.

Do they take FSU, who Florida desperately does not want in the SEC?

Do they take Clemson, who South Carolina desperately does not want in the SEC?

Texas A&M did not want Texas in the SEC and got voted down. But they were a newcomer.

I think Florida and South Carolina might have more pull. And I am not sure adding those programs does much to elevate the SEC. If they take them, it is only to block the B1G from taking them.

The B1G might want FSU and Clemson. But they might be all full at the inn by then. 4 more schools is a lot to take in. But if my math is right, adding 6 more gets the B1G to 24, which seems like a good number to stop at. So it might just happen.

I can’t see any scenario where Clemson and FSU stay in the ACC long term and any scenario where the SEC would willfully allow them to join the B1G. Why would you let the B1G fox into the South’s henhouse?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Looks like Cal got right back in this.

 

[Jake]

I don’t think the haves would actually kick the have Nots out of a conference. I think they would just all vote to create a new one and leave the Vanderbilts and Rutgers behind in a castrated version of the Big Ten 10 or SEC.

 

[Toga]

That makes me think the ACC was late to the party.

For travel IMO you need at least 5. Two makes little sense. Maybe ASU and Utah can pull a TCU and have this make a little sense.

Revenue sports only?

 

[Acesn8s]

I know it financially wouldn’t help but my god if you have to take some PAC schools I wish one of them would be Oregon State at least they are ranked this year and have a new stadium. I flew out to Washington to see the Syracuse UW game, might as well fly out to Oregon so I can watch Cuse and play Bandon Dunes.

 

[upperdeck]

what happens in 5-7 yrs when all the TV money starts to dry up as espn becomes more streaming centric and loses 50% of its base.

 

[djorange1989]

I wish the ACC could do a straight up trade with the Big 12, Louisville for WVU.

The Big 10 would like to trade Rutgers for a bag of footballs

 

[sutomcat]

I can’t see any scenario where Clemson and FSU stay in the ACC long term and any scenario where the SEC would willfully allow them to join the B1G. Why would you let the B1G fox into the South’s henhouse?

Could be. The SEC hasn't missed much so far.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[Chip]

That makes me think the ACC was late to the party.

For travel IMO you need at least 5. Two makes little sense. Maybe ASU and Utah can pull a TCU and have this make a little sense.

All indications were that they were trying when Colorado left, but I think at the time those schools would have rather tried to get some kind of deal, or keep looking for better options.

This whole idea of ACC plus Pac leftovers seems so dumb to me, but if you're going to do it at this point, and need travel partners for Cal/Stanford, why not model in UNLV, San Diego State at a minimum. They're at least bigger city teams. Oregon State/Washington State seem completely useless to me.

 

[djorange1989]

How does Buttgers not top that list?

Hey have faith, they will do their best to be number one soon!