ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

This is before merit based payouts which will drop teams below avg and before the new deal which will drop teams even further below avg.

ACC- $44.8M
B12- $44.2M (evenly distributed)

So even dropping $1M below avg will put an ACC team below B12 teams.

 

[HouClone]

Where and how would the B12 be making more money than the ACC?

Here is some analysis of revenue for ACC:

Projecting 2024-25 ACC Payouts

This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.

accfootballrx.blogspot.com

Not sure how accurate it is. But it is just PART of the revenue. I saw somewhere that Clemson had well over $100M in revenue.

No way ACCN can claim all of Texas and California as "in-conference". That was already debunked late last summer.

Jeramy Michiaels, an ESPN senior director who oversees the ACC Network and manages ESPN's relationship with the league, said "the ACC Network will receive in-market carriage rates from cable and satellite companies in Northern California and Dallas after adding California, Stanford and SMU over the summer in a divided expansion vote."

 

[HouClone]

In 2030 I think our best chance is to have a merger with some of the Big 12 teams.

Boston College
Syracuse
UConn
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
UCF
Houston
SMU

Looks like the old Metro conference.

 

[longtimefan]

By the time that Paterno had gotten furious with the BE, that is true. Before that, I think he was really hoping for an Eastern league for all sports. BE basketball interests were never going to allow that.

B1G money, plus the fact that PSU is, at its roots, a Midwest-like huge land grant university equals off to the Big Ten as soon as possible.

 

[TexanMark]

Looks like the old Metro conference.

Very similar and it would be a fun league. Add in Tulane, Duke, Georgetown, St Johns, VCU and Nova

 

[DocFlanders]

I think there is no way that Syracuse makes the cut for the Big Ten unless they go to 30 teams. Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Cal and Stanford would all be ahead of Syracuse from the ACC

We’re done being a player, it’s just a matter of time

 

[FireballPhil]

Sometimes it is better to be vague than specific... and no contract can ever be written perfectly.

This is perfectly said. This was one of the hardest things I had to learn simply because it goes against human nature. When I am writing new programs for when there is a process change, it takes a lot of thought to figure out what the ramifications are simply due to wording. You don't want to lock yourself into "it must be done this specific way" when two months down the road someone finds a better, more efficient way or technology changes again, or 100 other things. Then when someone comes looking and audits your system, they say they understand why you are doing it that way, but what does your program say and why aren't' you following it?

 

[FireballPhil]

How about a bottle/can drive?

let's collect green stamps!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So who "owns" the SU-Tennessee game? That will help our TV ratings if it is a SU "home" game, right?

Also do Friday games generally get higher ratings than Saturday games? If so, we should be looking to have two home ACC Friday night games a year vs being stuck on the ACCN or CW. Obviously we want to play Clemson, FSU, Miami on Saturday as those are big games anyway. But playing just about everyone else is better on Friday night, no? We need to be ahead of curve in gaming this new system.

 

[AcAndAc]

I think there is no way that Syracuse makes the cut for the Big Ten unless they go to 30 teams. Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Cal and Stanford would all be ahead of Syracuse from the ACC

This. I suspect Virginia Tech might even be ahead of us on that list.

It is all going to come down to whether the "final" version of highest level college* football is 24 teams, 32 teams, 45 teams, 60 teams or 70 teams. The closer we are to 70 being in the big league, the more likely we are to be in it. the closer it is to 24 teams, the less likely.

* College-like substance.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

This. I suspect Virginia Tech might even be ahead of us on that list.

It is all going to come down to whether the "final" version of highest level college* football is 24 teams, 32 teams, 45 teams, 60 teams or 70 teams. The closer we are to 70 being in the big league, the more likely we are to be in it. the closer it is to 24 teams, the less likely.

* College-like substance.

I don't think that the B1G would take both UVA and VA Tech. Same with both Stanford and Cal.

I don't think financially it would make sense to go past 24 for the B1G. Our only shot IMO would be if they went to 30 or more. That seems very very unlikely.

Going to 6 divisions of 5 teams makes a whole lot of sense competitively. You become more regional, and you keep tradition and rivalries. That would mean adding 12 teams though, which seems very unlikely.

Those IMO would be Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, UVA, GA Tech, Miami, Stanford, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and then one of SU or BC (most likely BC). Also possible would be FSU, in which case SU and BC are out.

Our chances go up with 32 or more, but that is kind of crazy.


This is out of the box but we might have a better shot at the SEC than the B1G. Notre Dame is really the last prize out there. But to get Notre Dame the SEC would need to add Northeastern teams. Which puts SU in play. I think we have a better chance going to the SEC with Notre Dame, BC, and Pitt vs getting the B1G to 30+ teams.

 

[AcAndAc]

I don't think that the B1G would take both UVA and VA Tech. Same with both Stanford and Cal.

I don't think financially it would make sense to go past 24 for the B1G. Our only shot IMO would be if they went to 30 or more. That seems very very unlikely.

Going to 6 divisions of 5 teams makes a whole lot of sense competitively. You become more regional, and you keep tradition and rivalries. That would mean adding 12 teams though, which seems very unlikely.

Those IMO would be Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, UVA, GA Tech, Miami, Stanford, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and then one of SU or BC (most likely BC). Also possible would be FSU, in which case SU and BC are out.

Our chances go up with 32 or more, but that is kind of crazy.


This is out of the box but we might have a better shot at the SEC than the B1G. Notre Dame is really the last prize out there. But to get Notre Dame the SEC would need to add Northeastern teams. Which puts SU in play. I think we have a better chance going to the SEC with Notre Dame, BC, and Pitt vs getting the B1G to 30+ teams.

I could see the conference that does not get Virginia taking Virginia Tech. Something like this: B1G gets UNC/UVa/Duke/Miami... SEC gets FSU/Clemson/Ga Tech/Va Tech.

If so, the leftovers can merge into one Tier 3 and hope that, when the dust settles, the B1G/SEC/Tier 3 become major college football... rather than just what is in the B1G/SEC. Although Tier 3 would likely never produce a champion, ever, and see few playoff spots. Maybe 7/7/2 or something.

 

[Newhouser]

We’re done being a player, it’s just a matter of time

I think the writing has been on the wall since rosters started getting bought. We are not wired to run in that lane. Fight to stay at the adult table as long as we can but we need to start thinking about what the next table is going to look like - we need to be proactive in setting that up and proactive is not the school's strong suit.

 

[HtownOrange]

SU needs to talk with the B1G. If they are willing, SU needs to pay the exit fee and leave ASAP. Waiting for the dominos to fall may not work well for SU.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think the writing has been on the wall since rosters started getting bought. We are not wired to run in that lane. Fight to stay at the adult table as long as we can but we need to start thinking about what the next table is going to look like - we need to be proactive in setting that up and proactive is not the school's strong suit.

We might not have a choice though. If I am the B1G and SEC I do the following:

-stay within the NCAA framework to not bring upon lawsuits or government intervention.

-play 9 conference games and one OOC cross over. Plus add in 2 bought home games vs non P2.

-expand to 24 teams each having 6 divisions of 4 teams.

-get the NCAA to allow an expanded conference tournament.

-the conf tournament (10 teams) gets sold as a package meaning more money to the conference that they do not have to share with the NCAA or non P2.

-opt out of the NCAAT which now becomes an "NIT" for the non P2 schools. Technically the NCAA would recognize the winner as the FBS Champ, but who cares.

-Conf CGs are on Jan 1 Rose Bowl (B1G) and Sugar Bowl (SEC)

-10 days later play in the Mega Bowl: B1G Champ vs SEC Champ, in which case the AP (and everyone else) recognizes the winner as the National Champ.

So they kind of get their separation without technically separating.

Since SU is not likely in that 24 team B1G or SEC, we are not at the adult table.

 

[WoadBlue]

B1G money, plus the fact that PSU is, at its roots, a Midwest-like huge land grant university equals off to the Big Ten as soon as possible.

You are making key points of mine: BIG TIME CFB is now principally a Southern thing and a Midwestern thing - the CA thing still matters, just not nearly as much as in 1980 or 2000. And the MT zone is growing a bit in TV audience for CFB. But basically it is about the schools located in and the people watching across the South and the Midwest.

And big time leagues require a whole bunch of state flagships and land grants to remain economically viable.

Big warning: the last Major conference to have a long time member that was the smallest school in Major conferences was the SWC, with Rice. The SWC is long dead, even in name, and Rice never again can hope to sniff Major status.

The ACC has no real chance to survive as Major after 2036 if it does not properly address those issues, making needed changes.

 

[AcAndAc]

SU needs to talk with the B1G. If they are willing, SU needs to pay the exit fee and leave ASAP. Waiting for the dominos to fall may not work well for SU.

We cannot even afford to pay the $20M annually to players without having to grovel to donors for $16.6M of it. Where are we coming up with $75M? Much less a greater amount to leave early? Meanwhile... the B1G does not want us or need us. If there was any semblance of that being untrue, we would know it by now.

 

[WoadBlue]

I don't think that the B1G would take both UVA and VA Tech. Same with both Stanford and Cal.

I don't think financially it would make sense to go past 24 for the B1G. Our only shot IMO would be if they went to 30 or more. That seems very very unlikely.

Going to 6 divisions of 5 teams makes a whole lot of sense competitively. You become more regional, and you keep tradition and rivalries. That would mean adding 12 teams though, which seems very unlikely.

Those IMO would be Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, UVA, GA Tech, Miami, Stanford, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and then one of SU or BC (most likely BC). Also possible would be FSU, in which case SU and BC are out.

Our chances go up with 32 or more, but that is kind of crazy.


This is out of the box but we might have a better shot at the SEC than the B1G. Notre Dame is really the last prize out there. But to get Notre Dame the SEC would need to add Northeastern teams. Which puts SU in play. I think we have a better chance going to the SEC with Notre Dame, BC, and Pitt vs getting the B1G to 30+ teams.

Once the SEC got Texas and OU, any dreams anybody had of getting paired up with ND to get saved by the SEC are gone. The SEC is never going to want anything close to New England, even if BC were no longer Jesuit but had become the MA state flagship and land grant.

In terms of that location, location, location thing, New England is the antithesis of TX or LA or AL or FL or GA or OH. So even ND would not have nearly the clout to get the SEC to take anything like a BC.

 

[Scooch]

SU needs to talk with the B1G. If they are willing, SU needs to pay the exit fee and leave ASAP. Waiting for the dominos to fall may not work well for SU.

I suspect we're not anywhere on the B1G's expansion target list at the moment. Possibly not ever.

Our future is likely to be in a weakened, reconfigured ACC or in a Big 12/gutted ACC mashup.

People have long wildly overrated our agency when it comes to conference realignment. We're basically along for the ride, subject to the whims of much bigger players.

 

[orange79]

I suspect we're not anywhere on the B1G's expansion target list at the moment. Possibly not ever.

Our future is likely to be in a weakened, reconfigured ACC or in a Big 12/gutted ACC mashup.

People have long wildly overrated our agency when it comes to conference realignment. We're basically along for the ride, subject to the whims of much bigger players.

 

[Scooch]

View attachment 250114

As a certain head coach down in Chapel Hill is famous for saying, it is what it is.

Honestly, I'm beyond the point of caring all that much. Syracuse is a university that sponsors professional sports teams. We're going to be in some kinda conference. We'll likely have less access to the CFP, but for everything else it probably won't matter a ton. We can be a top team in the New Big Atlantic 23 and make the hoops tourney. Lacrosse can go independent or maybe even join the B1G as associate member. The other sports will do what they've been doing, play conference games far from NY state.

 

[HtownOrange]

I suspect we're not anywhere on the B1G's expansion target list at the moment. Possibly not ever.

Our future is likely to be in a weakened, reconfigured ACC or in a Big 12/gutted ACC mashup.

People have long wildly overrated our agency when it comes to conference realignment. We're basically along for the ride, subject to the whims of much bigger players.

I have long held that Fox may want to push ESPN out of the northeast for college sports. Fox has the B1G and Big East properties, taking SU, Pitt, and possibly ND (all-in or Olympic sports/football scheduling arrangement).

SU and Pitt were vetted for membership. Whether either or both are on the B1G radar remains to be seen. However, you will not know without speaking with them. Additionally, we can rest assured that FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA , Miami and others are searching out their options, SU should do so likewise.

I still think ESPN wants to hold the northeast access, but is willing to use SU as a pawn for now. If that is the case, call their bluff. If ESPN does not want SU, then be done with it, take what money you can and plan for what happens next.

 

[Scooch]

I have long held that Fox may want to push ESPN out of the northeast for college sports. Fox has the B1G and Big East properties, taking SU, Pitt, and possibly ND (all-in or Olympic sports/football scheduling arrangement).

SU and Pitt were vetted for membership. Whether either or both are on the B1G radar remains to be seen. However, you will not know without speaking with them. Additionally, we can rest assured that FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA , Miami and others are searching out their options, SU should do so likewise.

I still think ESPN wants to hold the northeast access, but is willing to use SU as a pawn for now. If that is the case, call their bluff. If ESPN does not want SU, then be done with it, take what money you can and plan for what happens next.

Having worked at a network, people on the Internet put far more thought into "owning" regions than the network folks do themselves.

In a world where cable subscriptions are plummeting, direct-to-consumer streaming is ascendent, and both ad sales and content distribution is national in scope, "owning" a region means very little.

I can assure you that every network and streamer is concerned about one thing, and one thing only: the economics of rights deals.

 

[AcAndAc]

We might not have a choice though. If I am the B1G and SEC I do the following:

-stay within the NCAA framework to not bring upon lawsuits or government intervention.

-play 9 conference games and one OOC cross over. Plus add in 2 bought home games vs non P2.

-expand to 24 teams each having 6 divisions of 4 teams.

-get the NCAA to allow an expanded conference tournament.

-the conf tournament (10 teams) gets sold as a package meaning more money to the conference that they do not have to share with the NCAA or non P2.

-opt out of the NCAAT which now becomes an "NIT" for the non P2 schools. Technically the NCAA would recognize the winner as the FBS Champ, but who cares.

-Conf CGs are on Jan 1 Rose Bowl (B1G) and Sugar Bowl (SEC)

-10 days later play in the Mega Bowl: B1G Champ vs SEC Champ, in which case the AP (and everyone else) recognizes the winner as the National Champ.

So they kind of get their separation without technically separating.

Since SU is not likely in that 24 team B1G or SEC, we are not at the adult table.

What if the ACC deal here is the precursor for what the SEC and B1G want... an "eat what you kill" system. Maybe we will see the B1G take FSU/UNC... and that's it. No more moves. Meanwhile, the ACC is saved by the new distribution model because Clemson stays, SMU rises, and everyone else is happy enough.

Meanwhile, you now have FSU in the B1G and Texas in the SEC. Texas could certainly champion this in the SEC. So they do a modified version of the ACC... with 70% equal, 10% success, 20% viewership. If so, Florida starts to get the advantage on Florida State. So now FSU starts to bemoan that the B1G is still paying equal shares (and you know they will), while Florida's advantage in the SEC is to FSU's detriment. Now, the once united/peaceful B1G adopts a similar 60/20/20 model.

From there... both conferences can start expanding again because the model forces new members to have to carry more of their own weight by either winning or bringing viewership. Eventually, the B1G/SEC divide up all the schools willing to play by the NCAA settlement, with the clear haves and sorta haves fused together... and only the have nots left out. 20 teams will be winners on the field and financially, while 30-50 teams will be happy to just be part of it... occasionally surging to a 10-win season, but rarely really mattering in the big picture.

 

[HtownOrange]

Having worked at a network, people on the Internet put far more thought into "owning" regions than the network folks do themselves.

In a world where cable subscriptions are plummeting, direct-to-consumer streaming is ascendent, and both ad sales and content distribution is national in scope, "owning" a region means very little.

I can assure you that every network and streamer is concerned about one thing, and one thing only: the economics of rights deals.

Thanks for clarifying this point. I would still reach out, determine what the options are and plan ahead.

I agree with your previously stated point that if we are not in the top tier, then so be it, move on and plan ahead. If we have no future in top tier football, resources should be shifted to other revenue sports (hoops) and football scaled back accordingly.

I am a Syracuse fan, not a die hard fan that watches the pregame shows on Saturday and goes to bed after the west coast games are completed (except when SU is involved). I watch other games as my schedule permits, usually SU and maybe parts of a few other games. I will watch SU in top tier, FCS or D2. I won't watch an Auburn or Mississippi or Nebraska or UCLA game because ESPN or Fox think I should want to watch. I am more likely to be driven away from football that SU cannot compete within.