ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

Content matters to the networks. The ACC provides significant content for ESPN and I doubt that they want to lose that. Let's say that a few brands do leave. That the Big and SEC feel as if they are going to be accretive acquisitions which I find difficult given how much value they would have to bring in increased payments just to cover themselves. Regardless, some teams leave. I 100% see the ACC and possibly the Big 12 joining forces and the combined entity ending up with multiple bids to the Championship playoffs. While not as good as getting membership into the Big or Sec it would most likely provide Syracuse with the easiest path to the playoffs. SU will have a path to the playoffs when the dust settles which is what I want. We should have enough money to compete against the teams in our conference. 5 years is an eternity so let's focus on making our football and basketball teams as good as they can be, and I believe things will work out for SU.

 

[baggerbob]

I suspect we're not anywhere on the B1G's expansion target list at the moment. Possibly not ever.

Our future is likely to be in a weakened, reconfigured ACC or in a Big 12/gutted ACC mashup.

People have long wildly overrated our agency when it comes to conference realignment. We're basically along for the ride, subject to the whims of much bigger players.

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Having worked at a network, people on the Internet put far more thought into "owning" regions than the network folks do themselves.

In a world where cable subscriptions are plummeting, direct-to-consumer streaming is ascendent, and both ad sales and content distribution is national in scope, "owning" a region means very little.

I can assure you that every network and streamer is concerned about one thing, and one thing only: the economics of rights deals.

In that case wouldn't that make having a large BBall fanbase somewhat attractive? Those folks will buy a subscription October through March vs August through November for FB.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We should have enough money to compete against the teams in our conference.

But we really won't. The B12 is full of Texas schools and State schools. The ACC has private schools and state schools who act more like private schools. We will be joining a bunch of VA Tech and Louisville like schools. Not a bunch of UNCs and GA Techs.

 

[AcAndAc]

But we really won't. The B12 is full of Texas schools and State schools. The ACC has private schools and state schools who act more like private schools. We will be joining a bunch of VA Tech and Louisville like schools. Not a bunch of UNCs and GA Techs.

In the end, Florida State does not really fit the ACC. I do not think it "acts like a private school" any more than NW/Vanderbilt act like public schools.

 

[AcAndAc]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

Not sure why the B1G would bother at that point. The goal would be to get ND, not ND and 1-3 little brothers.

 

[hoopsupstate]

We cannot even afford to pay the $20M annually to players without having to grovel to donors for $16.6M of it. Where are we coming up with $75M? Much less a greater amount to leave early? Meanwhile... the B1G does not want us or need us. If there was any semblance of that being untrue, we would know it by now.

They’ve found $143 million to buy property in the Marshall St. area. Well over assessed values.

 

[WoadBlue]

Dennis's Dodd's thoughts on ACC settlement

 

[syracuse95]

Let's say that a few brands do leave. That the Big and SEC feel as if they are going to be accretive acquisitions which I find difficult given how much value they would have to bring in increased payments just to cover themselves.

This is the part that I don't understand, although I admittedly know nothing about media rights deals. The projections are that the B1G is looking at over $130m/yr per school when their media rights get renegotiated in 2030. No disrespect to UNC, UVA, or Miami, I just don't see how they bring enough incremental value to justify the addition.

 

[AcAndAc]

Dennis's Dodd's thoughts on ACC settlement

Interesting take, similar to what I was saying above, only on a faster timeline. FSU/Clemson/ACC are creating an interesting path here.

 

[AcAndAc]

This is the part that I don't understand, although I admittedly know nothing about media rights deals. The projections are that the B1G is looking at over $130m/yr per school when their media rights get renegotiated in 2030. No disrespect to UNC, UVA, or Miami, I just don't see how they bring enough incremental value to justify the addition.

The interesting thing is that $130M per school means $2.3B or so. Of that, Ohio State might be worth $400M alone... and is running an A.D. deficit... all while Purdue and Rutgers can get the same share as them.

 

[JimBoston]

The P2 have added 1 private school since they were formed, USC by the Big 10. There would be a P2 spot for Notre Dame, but that is probably it although Stanford may have a shot. It seems the P2 has no interest in the Big 12 schools, so IF the P2 expands, it is coming from the ACC. If the P2 expands, Syracuse will end up being in a reconstituted ACC which isn't terrible.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The P2 have added 1 private school since they were formed, USC by the Big 10. There would be a P2 spot for Notre Dame, but that is probably it although Stanford may have a shot. It seems the P2 has no interest in the Big 12 schools, so IF the P2 expands, it is coming from the ACC. If the P2 expands, Syracuse will end up being in a reconstituted ACC which isn't terrible.

Miami has a shot. BYU might as well.

For the B12 I think KU and BYU are the best brands left. ASU is a big school in a big market. Utah and Colorado could be fillers. Arizona is a big BBall brand. These schools aren't really that much different than the ACC candidates.

 

[Scooch]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

First, ND football isn’t joining a conference . Second, if they joined for all other sports, why would they want to take anyone with them?

Putting aside that they won’t be in any position to dictate something like that. ND would have Rutgers, PSU, Maryland and likely Virginia in that conference. They’d have all the east coast exposure they’d need.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

In the end, Florida State does not really fit the ACC. I do not think it "acts like a private school" any more than NW/Vanderbilt act like public schools.

FSU, Clemson, VA Tech, NC State, Louisville don't really fit with the rest of the ACC.

The last 6 real FB seasons SU avg attendance is 12th out of the 17 ACC teams. If we were in the current B12 we would be 14th out of 17. So we would be even further down the chain. The 13 teams ahead of us all avg more than our new capacity. The B12 has bigger schools. It will be harder to overcome that vs the ACC.

Of the 3 private schools BYU is big and Baylor/TCU have Texas talent in their backyard. Now we wouldn't be the only ACC school to join the B12, which likely means we are even further down the chain and have even more programs to overcome.

Which is why I would prefer the ACC remain separate from the B12. As long as we have an auto bid to the playoff, we have a better chance at being successful even if it means less TV $. The problem is we would need the other left behind schools to agree with that outlook and stick together.

 

[AcAndAc]

FSU, Clemson, VA Tech, NC State, Louisville don't really fit with the rest of the ACC.

The last 6 real FB seasons SU avg attendance is 12th out of the 17 ACC teams. If we were in the current B12 we would be 14th out of 17. So we would be even further down the chain. The 13 teams ahead of us all avg more than our new capacity. The B12 has bigger schools. It will be harder to overcome that vs the ACC.

Of the 3 private schools BYU is big and Baylor/TCU have Texas talent in their backyard. Now we wouldn't be the only ACC school to join the B12, which likely means we are even further down the chain and have even more programs to overcome.

Which is why I would prefer the ACC remain separate from the B12. As long as we have an auto bid to the playoff, we have a better chance at being successful even if it means less TV $. The problem is we would need the other left behind schools to agree with that outlook and stick together.

Interesting data. Just looking at 5 year averages.

80k tier: Clemson
60K tier: FSU (surprisingly low average, really...65k over 5 years, 53 last year), Va Tech, BYU
50k tier: Iowa State, NC State, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma St. Miami, WVU

Upper40k tier: Utah, Kansas St., UNC, Colorado, Louisville, ASU, Pitt
Lower40k tier: Baylor, TCU, Virginia, UCF, Utah, Cal (39.9K)
Upper 30k tier: Ga Tech, Syracuse, Cincy, BC, Stanford, Kansas, Wake (29.7k)
20k tier: Houston, Duke, SMU

Other than BYU, nobody in the B12 is THAT much ahead of us. We do not consider Va Tech out of our league. And they outdrew us by 26k last year and 24k average over 5 years.

FSU averaging 65k ... closer to Iowa/Arkansas than Ohio State/Alabama.

 

[TexanMark]

Several schools are redoing stadiums. More amenities and generally less seating capacity. We'll see where Cuse sits attendance wise in 5 years