I think that's a pretty rational take on the situation.
Not sure when Louisville suddenly became a football power? Since they've joined the Big East, they are 4-3 against UConn and we've both 2 Conference Titles. Go back only 2 years and UConn was in the Fiesta Bowl and Louisville was a bottom of the pack team.
This talk that if the ACC takes UConn over Louisville, FSU and Clemson will revolt just doesn't make sense. Is picking Louisville who is better than UConn THIS season, really going to force FSU/Clemson into paying the exit fee and joining a conference 800 miles away? Doubtful. Also, keep in mind UConn or Louisville would be replacing Maryland, who's not exactly a power either.
I think ultimately this will come down to the TV market. Hartford/New Haven is ranked 30th, and that doesn't even include Fairfield County in Southwestern CT, which is part of the NY Metro market.
I mean, there's different circumstances (B1G Network) but Rutgers got a B1G invite based solely off geography. UConn has a brand and a decent market. I think that outweighs a current football season.