ADJW on Dino: "He's going to be our coach in 2021"

[nzm136]

This thread is about JW stating that Dino is coming back next year no matter what. It's not just about hardcore fans on one side of the aisle. I was not able to read the article from yesterday, did JW state 6 games or bust in there or is 6 games your number? It's a bit strange that in a thread that the AD says Dino is fine, that fans are fighting saying he shouldn't when the AD is saying otherwise. Simply neither side of the hardcore base will concede to the other. This thread is like the old Miller Light commercials...GREAT TASTE!...no its LESS FILLING!...no it's GREAT TASTE!...it's LESS FILLING! and so on.

The 6 win statement is me, but given our performance over the last 20 years, I have a very hard time thinking that we’ll pull a Gross/Nancy and fire a coach in a year we go to a bowl. Also to clarify, I never said DB shouldn’t come back next year. I agree that JW is correct, and anyone predicting his demise this year is crazy.* But DB’s return next year doesn’t mean he was anointed a saint. They’re two different arguments, and trying to turn him into one is odd. (I have no idea if you’re one of the posters who is trying to reinvent history/facts to make DB into a larger-than-life figure or not. My statement about odd behavior is a general statement, not one targeted at you specifically.)

*Though I think it’s somewhat reasonable to argue whether or not he **should** be back next year, esp. if it’s framed in a hypothetical where we have deep pockets, as that’s more of an argument over whether JW is right and not an argument over whether he’s telling the truth. (I think DB should. For starters, the buyout would be crippling, and even in a fictitious scenario where we have deep pockets, the optics of dropping a coach in 2020 are poor in my eyes.)

 

[HRE Otto IV]

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Why should we be winning a minimum of 6 games a year when we have had 4 different coaches in 16 years that have only done it 4 times combined? Why is that? just don't get the logic. So now the answer is another coach? I just think it's a a bigger issue than just the coach. I keep hearing 6 wins 6 wins, the truth is it's not that easy at Syracuse and I think that's pretty clear. The truth is EVERY fan thinks their program should be winning 6 games a year at a minimum because they think it's easy. IT"S NOT!!!! and it's even more difficult at Syracuse, I think that has become painfully obvious. Well what about this guy or this guy or that guy? Don't care, they aren't coaching Syracuse. Every job is different. 16 years and 4 coaches!!!!

and why are you comparing us to Arkansas? I don't get that either, makes zero sense, They have had more coaches than anyone. How long you think Pittman will be at Arkansas before the fire another HC?. I will say 2 more years.

If you schedule wisely it shouldn't be that hard. Marrone likely gets to 6 Ws all four years with a more manageable OOC schedule. Last year we stunk. Had our worst team since 2014 and still found a way to win 5 games.

When we have a young team we probably are looking at 4-8. When we have an SR led team we are probably looking at 8-4. The rest should be anywhere in between. The expectation IMO should be for a HC to be .500 or better overall once they have settled into the job.

After his first two years at Wake, Clawson turned them around and has had 5 straight winning seasons. After his first four years at Duke Cutcliffe turned them around and is 5 games over .500 the last 9 seasons even with this crap season they just had. Addazio turned BC around right away and was .500 over 7 seasons there.
Even if we throw away the 2020 season, if Dino is below .500 next year he will be at best 28-33 over 5 seasons. That won't be turning things around. That will be pretty much stagnant from the Shafer era.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

With the way the schedule is in CFB now days going 6-6 and being competitive most years en route to a bowl game shouldn't take 6 years, if after year 6 you can't win 3 OOC games and 3 ACC games then maybe you can't cut it.

Sam Pittman at arkansas is a lot harder job than here and he's had plenty of success, I could name many others. Yes will it take along time to start having 8 win seasons consistently, but we should be at the minimum winning 6 games with the schedule we get most years.

Plenty of success? He has had one season at Arkansas and he is 3-6. Where are you getting plenty of success from?

Arkansas is a harder job than Syracuse? Please provide some evidence of this belief.

We haven't had a five year period of winning 6, or more, games each season since '97-01. So, please tell me why this should be the minimum acceptable level of success for a program that has been unable to replicate that level of performance in two decades through five coaches?

 

[nzm136]

The 2nd paragraph is horrendous.

Sorry reality doesn’t mesh with the fantasy BS you spew.

 

[TheCusian]

YPG and PPP are close to meaningless stats. There’s a wide dispersion in pace between schools ever since Art Briles’ Baylor offense got big, and the modern game is much faster than past eras.

Yards per play/possession and points per play/possession (ideally possession) are far more relevant.

I have no idea if YPP/PPP would make Gilbert look good or bad, but making arguments based off of YPG is like arguing how good of an offensive coordinator he is based on his cousin’s favorite 3 colors.

There’s a way for you to check. You’ve got a real penchant for riding in high and disparaging numbers and stats by saying something is better but then fall short in doing the work.

Show your work, then we’ll believe you. Otherwise it’s just noise.

 

[nzm136]

There’s a way for you to check. You’ve got a real penchant for riding in high and disparaging numbers and stats by saying something is better but then fall short in doing the work.

Show your work, then we’ll believe you. Otherwise it’s just noise.

Yup, there is a way for me to check, but I’m not going to do the leg work because I’m not the one trying to prove whether or not he’s a good OC. (I personally have no idea, and having seen the arguments that people make for and against him, I’m reasonably sure I’m far from alone.)

I’m just saying the YPG evidence is garbage.

I suspect that any discussion involving numbers is noise to you, given that despite repeated lessons, you still can’t successfully use them in a meaningful way, which is probably why you think I have a penchant for “riding high” when I state obvious flaws in people’s arguments. As I’ve said before, if you have a problem with people pointing out flaws, then make arguments that are better supported. Otherwise, talk to your mom (who I promise I’m exceptionally thankful that I am not).

 

[Shrmdougluvr]

My subjective takes:

• Dino was objectively a success at his prior two head coaching jobs;
• He was a success with other coaches' players, and another coach's groundbreaking system;
• He left before he had to build anything of his own at Bowling Green;
• Bowling Green has been an unmitigated disaster since he left;
• He was a good hire for Syracuse;
• He always struck me as being full of it, but i admit, i do harbor some resentment about gym coaches making millions (that's on me), and i do not think he was necessarily more full of it than others in his line of work;
• His first two years at Syracuse showed promise, despite some hiccups/concerning moments. I would not consider them successful though in the traditional sense of the word. He appeared to be building though;
• The 10-3 season was excellent, but was propped up by a ton of things going SU's way. It's not Dino's fault things broke our way, and he deserves credit here (particularly his willingness to utilize Devito against FSU and UNC, and then his resolve to stick with Dungey after);
• The 5-7 season in 2019 was nearly an objective failure, a notable regression, and spoiled most of the goodwill from 10-3 (it included some What moments such as the "La Familia" webisodes, "no film," and the blowout at Maryland, the ineptitude at NCST following a bye week ...);
• This season was an unmitigated disaster. It calls into question whether his systems are still novel and whether he can effectively coach up players, make adjustments, etc. It also calls into question his recruiting philosophy. I dont know about the internal dynamics to comment on whether he has lost the team, etc.;
• He should not be fired at this time;
• It's too early to know what 2021 will look like, to make any predictions or proclamations for next season.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Sorry reality doesn’t mesh with the fantasy BS you spew.

Funny. The BS I spew? I think you should re-read the paragraph. It's complete diarrhea. A bit dramatic here, no? Just a small sample below.

"Letting 18-22 year old kids make very strong political statements on national TV that can’t be taken back or gracefully mitigated later in life is a phenomenally problematic public lack of judgement that will likely hurt the university’s image in my eyes. These are kids who lost the power to choose their uniform on senior day because they couldn’t get that decision right..."

 

[TheCusian]

YPG and PPP are close to meaningless stats. There’s a wide dispersion in pace between schools ever since Art Briles’ Baylor offense got big, and the modern game is much faster than past eras.

Yards per play/possession and points per play/possession (ideally possession) are far more relevant.

I have no idea if YPP/PPP would make Gilbert look good or bad, but making arguments based off of YPG is like arguing how good of an offensive coordinator he is based on his cousin’s favorite 3 colors.

Also, while I'm sure that one could check with Gilbert's cousin, it would probably be easier to make the case the YPG does correlate more than color preference to how good an offense is despite it being an imperfect metric."Like, hey this team scores a lot of points and gets a bunch of yards they might be good" makes more sense than "Hank loves green" but you do you

 

[TheCusian]

Yup, there is a way for me to check, but I’m not going to do the leg work because I’m not the one trying to prove a point.

I’m just saying his evidence is garbage.

I suspect that any discussion involving numbers is noise to you, given that despite repeated lessons, you still can’t successfully use them in a meaningful way, which is probably why you think I have a penchant for “riding high” when I state obvious flaws in people’s arguments. As I’ve said before, if you have a problem with people pointing out flaws, then make arguments that are better supported. Otherwise, talk to your mom (who I promise I’m exceptionally thankful that I am not).

No, I have a problem with you making points without doing any actual work. Lots of "I suspect" and "I'm not sure" but I'm 100% correct you should believe me.

Why? There's zero substance until you show the work. First assignment: Correlation between YPG and good offense. Show that there is none as you assert. We'll wait.

 

[GoSU96]

Yup, there is a way for me to check, but I’m not going to do the leg work because I’m not the one trying to prove a point.

I’m just saying his evidence is garbage.

I suspect that any discussion involving numbers is noise to you, given that despite repeated lessons, you still can’t successfully use them in a meaningful way, which is probably why you think I have a penchant for “riding high” when I state obvious flaws in people’s arguments. As I’ve said before, if you have a problem with people pointing out flaws, then make arguments that are better supported. Otherwise, talk to your mom (who I promise I’m exceptionally thankful that I am not).
[/QUOTE]

repeated lessons? Okay Professor Kinsfield.

the only lessons are in how to be a pompous ass

 

[RandomGuy]

Record vs ACC.

13-29

.309

 

[PhatOrange]

What does this prove? It does not take a genius coach to recruit players. So why then is Babers at the low end of recruiting?

you tell us

when all is said and done though he'll likely have produced more NFL kids than any SU coach since 2000.

 

[TheCusian]

His record is 24-36, take away cupcakes and it is worse. His coaching record does not reset.
Try taking off the orange colored glasses.
I had great expectations, but no longer do.

Here's some objective facts for you. W/L without context is the worst kind of metric. (Bowl games is worse with random conference tie-ins and weird OOC scheduling things.) SRS isn't the greatest, but it is a simple rating system and tends to conform to the more advanced stuff that is harder to track down. SoS is Strength of Schedule.

SU HC	SRS (0 is average)	SoS (0 is average)	W-L (%)	Bowl Record
Dino Babers	-0.26	3.47	24-36 (.400)	1-0
Scott Shafer	-1.18	3.26	14-23 (.378)	1-0
Doug Marrone	0.00	0.54	25-25 (.500)	2-0
Greg Robinson	-8.19	3.67	10-37 (.213)	0-0
Paul Pasqualoni	7.22	1.85	107-59 (.644)	6-3
Dick MacPherson	6.85	3.74	66-46 (.586)	3-1-1

This removes your "take away the cupcakes and he's even worse" line. He's had the 3rd hardest path schedule wise in the last 39 years. People wishing for Dougie don't realize that he had the easiest schedules by far. P and Mac were awesome, mostly.

This years SoS is 6.33 - the hardest since 1984. During a pandemic. When his top 3 players were either hurt or opted out or both.

EDIT: I memory-holed Gerg! Too funny. Added him back in. Objectively horrible.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Record vs ACC.

13-29

.309

Brutal

 

[Cuse69]

Plenty of success? He has had one season at Arkansas and he is 3-6. Where are you getting plenty of success from?

Arkansas is a harder job than Syracuse? Please provide some evidence of this belief.

We haven't had a five year period of winning 6, or more, games each season since '97-01. So, please tell me why this should be the minimum acceptable level of success for a program that has been unable to replicate that level of performance in two decades through five coaches?

Gee I didn't know we play in the SEC west, arkansas hadn't won an SEC game in two years and won 3 this year, should've beaten auburn if refs didn't screw them over. They lost to LSU and Missouri by less than 3. In a normal year with OOC they go bowling.

You guys love making excuses, anyone thinking this is a harder job than arkansas needs to take the orange glasses off. We made one bad hire in greg, marrone turned that around, SS made a bowl and here we are with dino. Winning 6 games a season shouldn't be some lofty goal when we have 4 OOC and most years 3 of them are cupcakes. Chad Morris at arkansas was just as bad as greg here, and bielema was no home run before him.

 

[Cuse69]

Here's some objective facts for you. W/L without context is the worst kind of metric. (Bowl games is worse with random conference tie-ins and weird OOC scheduling things.) SRS isn't the greatest, but it is a simple rating system and tends to conform to the more advanced stuff that is harder to track down. SoS is Strength of Schedule.

SU HC	SRS (0 is average)	SoS (0 is average)	W-L (%)	Bowl Record
Dino Babers	-0.26	3.47	24-36 (.400)	1-0
Scott Shafer	-1.18	3.26	14-23 (.378)	1-0
Doug Marrone	0.00	0.54	25-25 (.500)	2-0
Greg Robinson	-8.19	3.67	10-37 (.213)	0-0
Paul Pasqualoni	7.22	1.85	107-59 (.644)	6-3
Dick MacPherson	6.85	3.74	66-46 (.586)	3-1-1

This removes your "take away the cupcakes and he's even worse" line. He's had the 3rd hardest path schedule wise in the last 39 years. People wishing for Dougie don't realize that he had the easiest schedules by far. P and Mac were awesome, mostly.

This years SoS is 6.33 - the hardest since 1984. During a pandemic. When his top 3 players were either hurt or opted out or both.

EDIT: I memory-holed Gerg! Too funny. Added him back in. Objectively horrible.

That's such a BS stat to try and make excuses for babers, this years schedule was 62nd in the country, who cares what the schedule ranks compared to 2000 and whatever. We play in the ACC not the SEC West, take off clemson and if we don't get ND in the OOC our schedule is not all that difficult, a new team every year it seems in the ACC has a good year but besides that it's nothing all that difficult. Besides UNC ND Clemson what was so hard about this years schedule, that's 3 games. In a normal year that's as hard of a schedule that we're gonna get. I cannot believe people are trying to excuse DB's utter failure by saying we play too tough a schedule LOL, maybe if we had south carolinas schedule.

 

[UpstateSM]

Dino won 10 games at Syracuse two years ago. That might be the best Syracuse football season I see in my life.
You guys are nuts

 

[RandomGuy]

Brutal

Should we remove this Covid year.
Record vs. ACC

12-20

.375

When adding context? It IS important to note the state of the program when he took over. We can safely say, he turned it around in 2018. 2018-2020 vs ACC

9-17

.346

 

[TheCusian]

SOS is 62nd not 6th NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

Not sure what that is. They had WVU at #52 and us at #62 and we played a top 4 Clemson and ND at their places and WVU hadn't played a top ten team until last week (#10 Iowa State)?!

We're #6 here:

College Football at Sports-Reference

 

[FloridaFan]

you tell us

when all is said and done though he'll likely have produced more NFL kids than any SU coach since 2000.

He also will get more then double the time of shafer and marrone.

 

[UpstateSM]

He also will get more then double the time of shafer and marrone.

He won 10 games in a single season

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Gee I didn't know we play in the SEC west, arkansas hadn't won an SEC game in two years and won 3 this year, should've beaten auburn if refs didn't screw them over. They lost to LSU and Missouri by less than 3. In a normal year with OOC they go bowling.

You guys love making excuses, anyone thinking this is a harder job than arkansas needs to take the orange glasses off. We made one bad hire in greg, marrone turned that around, SS made a bowl and here we are with dino. Winning 6 games a season shouldn't be some lofty goal when we have 4 OOC and most years 3 of them are cupcakes. Chad Morris at arkansas was just as bad as greg here, and bielema was no home run before him.

Really? OOC is the path to a bowl game?
They lost to those two juggernauts Eastern Kentucky and San Jose St, last year in the OOC by a combined score of 76-43.
The year before that it was to those two powerhouses Colorado State and North Texas by a combined score of 78-44.

And one year at 3-6 is defined as "plenty of success"? If that is the definition of "plenty of success" then DB is a Hall of Famer.

Tell you what, I'll remove the so-called orange-colored glasses when you say something remotely sensible.

 

[Alsacs]

He also will get more then double the time of shafer and marrone.

Marrone left for the NFL.
Shafer didn’t even deserve the job.
He got hired to continue Marrone’s program and was completely in over his head as a P5 program HC.

I think Dino has to go 6-6 next year to keep his job but I wouldn’t compare the time to Shafer.

 

[PhatOrange]

He also will get more then double the time of shafer and marrone.

Then draw the line on the last class.

Besides, how many NFL kids did shafer and marrone have?

We have had this discussion ad nauseum though.

Marrone couldn't recruit but was far an away the best developer of talent (that tag includes the entire staff.)

Shafer recruited a couple of high end kids but the bottoms fell out of his middle and low end. The lower half of his classes were D1AA. Which he passed on to Babers. In terms of staff player development, I think it was somewhere in the middle. Below Marrone, but above the Babers staff.

Babers has far and away recruited the best but might be the worst in terms of player development. imo, the WR and OL coaches have been terrible at player development and he made a major major blunder in hiring Martin to coach QBs. That single move - imo - could have been the undoing of the program. When Lewis left he needed to go find a top shelf QB coach. That set us back 2 years. (in both development and recruiting.)