Alabama: 5 players tested Positive for COVID

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[upperdeck]

Pretty much what the email from SU just said

 

[RandomGuy]

I think the smart schools are the ones with 10-20% of their classes in person. This will drastically limit the number of students/faculty/staff on campus.

A student and or professor in the US WILL die from being on campus. Perhaps they would have died even at home (eg catching it at the store, or going to a bar etc...), but what will the optics be? What will the reaction be?

If they are limiting the # of students? That's a little better, but 5% of incoming students should still be positive. (or at least, a quantifiable #) Yes. Someone will die.
(If we believe a very low .01% mortality rate for the age group? 1 in 10,000 infected dies)

In my state? Half the cases have been in group settings. I actually think class itself can be managed. The living situations? No.

One study of a hospital's air indicated that there was VERY little virus floating around the Covid ward. It was highest in the shared restrooms, and where personnel changed their clothes (anything they picked up freely shed)... I see no way that a college dorm can safely function.

 

[MSOrange]

View attachment 183950

This seems like a fair plan but curious to see others input if SU implemented something similar?

 

[NKR1978]

This seems like a fair plan but curious to see others input if SU implemented something similar?

SU has been limiting capacity for decades now.

 

[upperdeck]

If they are limiting the # of students? That's a little better, but 5% of incoming students should still be positive. (or at least, a quantifiable #) Yes. Someone will die.
(If we believe a very low .01% mortality rate for the age group? 1 in 10,000 infected dies)

In my state? Half the cases have been in group settings. I actually think class itself can be managed. The living situations? No.

One study of a hospital's air indicated that there was VERY little virus floating around the Covid ward. It was highest in the shared restrooms, and where personnel changed their clothes (anything they picked up freely shed)... I see no way that a college dorm can safely function.

but in a hospital thats also where people are changing that have been hanging around it all day long.. a dorm room is where someone might come into contact with people who have had it for a few minutes at a time but also wearing a mask.. kinda like your house.. how many of us are coming home from a store and dumping clothes in the garage before entering a house?

 

[RandomGuy]

but in a hospital thats also where people are changing that have been hanging around it all day long.. a dorm room is where someone might come into contact with people who have had it for a few minutes at a time but also wearing a mask.. kinda like your house.. how many of us are coming home from a store and dumping clothes in the garage before entering a house?

And in the restrooms...

Half the cases in my state were in group settings/homes. NO. My governor did not send sick people into homes. Once it shows up in a group setting? Its unavoidable.

With a pretty good chance that 5% or more will be positive on arrival? (and many wont know). I really dont think any amount of planning will mitigate the spread. I dont see any other logical outcome.

If it's a struggle with 85 football players? How can it be any better with 2,000 to 40K?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[dan7800]

Not yet peer reviewed, but an interesting working paper on reopening campuses in the fall.

Working paper models COVID spread at university

Can expect approximately 5% of the population to be quarantined at any given time. I think that it generally looks better than expected. However the assumption was that: "Each day in the model, there is a 25 percent chance that one individual on campus not in quarantine, who has not already been infected, can become spontaneously infected by nonuniversity contact, a rate researchers said was rather low compared to other estimates"

I'm also not sure of what the assumed starting infection rate was.

 

[rrlbees]

 

[RandomGuy]

Not yet peer reviewed, but an interesting working paper on reopening campuses in the fall.

Working paper models COVID spread at university

Can expect approximately 5% of the population to be quarantined at any given time. I think that it generally looks better than expected. However the assumption was that: "Each day in the model, there is a 25 percent chance that one individual on campus not in quarantine, who has not already been infected, can become spontaneously infected by nonuniversity contact, a rate researchers said was rather low compared to other estimates"

I'm also not sure of what the assumed starting infection rate was.

750-1500 in quarantine per day, with 20k students. While Universities have mitigation strategies that can be implemented in classroom settings? The dorm/socialization settings are where it spreads rampant. We know this from group home infection rates. (very high). At best? I'll give colleges 8 weeks until shutdown, but I'm expecting closer to 4 weeks.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[dan7800]

750-1500 in quarantine per day, with 20k students. While Universities have mitigation strategies that can be implemented in classroom settings? The dorm/socialization settings are where it spreads rampant. We know this from group home infection rates. (very high). At best? I'll give colleges 8 weeks until shutdown, but I'm expecting closer to 4 weeks.

I know that we've been planning for a large number of space to quarantine people. I get that while from a statistical perspective in theory things can be mitigated, what happens when even 2-3 students/faculty die at any school in the US?

 

[OrangeFoo]

I've largely stayed away from this thread, but here's my two cents anyways.

I think the real question that college sports needs to answer is whether playing college football will make it more or less likely for these kids to catch the virus. The reality is that a large population of student athletes will catch or already have caught the virus regardless of whether they are in school or at home and some will get pretty sick and tragically some of them will die. The discussion should be around whether its better for these kids to be in a structured environment where there are consequences for their actions or in a totally unstructured environment where they have a lot of down time? Then there is the question of whether playing a football game is any more or less dangerous than sharing a dorm or apartment with someone.

No easy answers here. My hunch is that having kids come back to campus might be safer for them then letting them stay at home.

 

[RandomGuy]

640 soldiers negative, upon arrival. 1 week later 142 positive. I suspect many colleges may follow a similar path. While a barracks may be the worse place to distance? College students in dorms(shared bathrooms, dining), with established friends, can't be far behind.


Should that worst case play out at any campus of 20k? 4400 positives in 1 week. Unlikely, but not impossible.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[RandomGuy]

Says nothing of eligibility.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

This feels like a bad horror movie where we all know the ending but are playing out the string

 

[PhatOrange]

Says nothing of eligibility.

The clock should keep ticking and they lose their eligibility. They’re still getting a free education. You can’t play this out forever. Kids in the high school ranks coming up behind them.

 

[orange79]

Says nothing of eligibility.

The SEC schools themselves can't do anything about eligibility. The NCAA would have to do that.

 

[hoopsupstate]

The SEC schools themselves can't do anything about eligibility. The NCAA would have to do that.

Honoring a scholarship is not the same as maintaining eligibility.

 

[dan7800]

Honoring a scholarship is not the same as maintaining eligibility.

Pulling scholarships (which basically costs the school no money) would have have looked really really bad - and been really really bad