Alan Griffin transfers to Syracuse.

[sutomcat]

23rd if all transfers are eligible

Syracuse was 50th before adding Alan Griffin. Moved up to 24th with him. That sounds about right.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Syracuse was 50th before adding Alan Griffin. Moved up to 24th with him. That sounds about right.

I don’t see any way to rationalize this the way you are. Good on you, but we will not be that drastically much better than we were this year. In my opinion.

 

[Briancuse]

Syracuse was 50th before adding Alan Griffin. Moved up to 24th with him. That sounds about right.

He's a really good player not sure he's 23 spots good. I hope I'm wrong and I do think we will be better. Don't think we are top 25 good yet.

 

[UpstateSM]

I don’t see any way to rationalize this the way you are. Good on you, but we will not be that drastically much better than we were this year. In my opinion.

We will be, at the very worst, the same as we were last year. I’m excited for the season

 

[two3zone]

I don’t see any way to rationalize this the way you are. Good on you, but we will not be that drastically much better than we were this year. In my opinion.

It's a slap in the face to Hughes who was our best all around player since silent G.

 

[two3zone]

He's a really good player not sure he's 23 spots good. I hope I'm wrong and I do think we will be better. Don't think we are top 25 good yet.

Just dont see how we replace our best player with the 6th man from Illinois and it improves us over 25 teams.

 

[UpstateSM]

I mean if you want to argue with numbers go ahead.

Alan Griffin is a god damn stud by the eye test, advanced stats, or any other measurement. Every player on our team is going to improve and Griffin is more efficient offensively than Eli was.

I get some people prefer to go into things with a negative outlook but I promise you it’s more fun on this side

 

[sutomcat]

I don’t see any way to rationalize this the way you are. Good on you, but we will not be that drastically much better than we were this year. In my opinion.

Alan Griffin was the 6th most efficient player on offense in the country last year. I think adding someone with his skills to our returning players is going to make us very difficult to stop on offense.

Combine that with expected modest improvements on defense and I think we will be better. I don’t see the horrific dysfunction that the team had last season out of conference. That was a a young team trying to find itself. That was JB trying to figure out who his point guard was and what his rotations were.

We are going to have more quality depth at guard, forward and center. That is going to be a big help.
People like to criticize JB for playing JG3 and Buddy too much last season but if you look objectively at the numbers, the backups all played poorly. It was tough to justify playing the other options and hope that they would start playing better and eventually help the team.

In short, I think our guard play will be better if for no other reason than I think we will see that Kadary is a huge upgrade over the backup guards we had last season. Add to that JG3 was a true frosh last season and had to make the adjustment to playing college ball and playing PG all at the same time. I think it is reasonable he will be more comfortable and better with a year of experience. His assists to turnover numbers were solid and I think his shot selection and shooting in general will be better, in part because he will be more experienced and in part because he will be playing with a much more balanced and effective set of teammates on offense.

My two big concerns with Joe last season were 1) shot selection and 2) defense. Joe took a lot of shots last season that were ill advised. I think part of that was Joe being Joe. He is a scorer and is going to get his shots. You don’t average 50 ppg in HS being tentative. That is his mentality and something he needs to control playing point guard. I also think part of it was the dysfunctional offense we had last season. For much of the year, Bourama, Quincy and even Marek were not threats to score. You had teams opening telling the press that they knew all they had to do we stop Elijah, Buddy and Joe from scoring and they would win.

There was pressure on Joe to score almost from the minute he started playing. That leads to taking bad shots. I think Bourama, Marek and Quincy will all be significantly better on offense next season. I expect Kadary is going to be another scoring option for the team from day one. Joe is going to have it easier running the offense with a much improved roster.

I expect Buddy will be better too. He is by all accounts the hardest worker on the team. He gets stronger each season. He added a mid range jumper and the ability to drive and score to his game last season, along with much improved passing and improved defense and I think he will continue to get better. Personally, I think his efficiency was hurt last season by playing too many minutes and I think with Kadary on the team, he will get a chance to rest more and be at his best more in games (that applies to JG3 too).

I think Kadary is likely going to make a significant impact from day one. He played for arguably the best team in HS/prep basketball last season and was arguably the best player on the team. He brings a skill set to the team we did not have last season. He is exceptional at getting to the basket and he is not a one dimensional scorer...he is also a terrific passer. And he can rebound, and when motivated, he can play outstanding defense. After playing a season against top notch players in practice and in games, he should be well prepared to contribute at Syracuse right away.

And if we have an injury or foul trouble, there is Alan Griffin available to step in here.

At forward last year, we had Elijah, Marek and Quincy. Elijah scored a lot of points but he wasn’t that efficient scoring those points and his rebounding (or lack thereof) was a real problem in many games. Way too many games where he played 39 minutes and got 2 or 3 rebounds. His passing and help bringing the ball up and running the offense and his leadership will be missed but Marek has some of those skills and I think he can step in. One of the biggest reasons Elijah was so valuable last year was because of PG play was so suspect much of the year. JG3 was inconsistent, as young players are, and will continue to get better. And Kadary is going to be able to do things none of our guards could do last year. I really enjoyed watching Elijah play. He was a very good player for us. But he was not Superman. He really struggled shooting from the outside for large parts of the season. He struggled to finish inside a lot and missed many relatively easy short shots with someone close by. That is why his efficiency numbers are so low relative to a player like Alan Griffin.

Marek broke his finger in the summer and completely lost his shooting touch from the outside, He even struggled to make medium and short shots than he normally is a lock to make. I do not expect that to happen again and see him being much more efficient his senior season. I also expect him to be in foul trouble a lot less. One of the biggest reasons we were not an NCAA team last season was the almost continuous foul trouble Marek and Bourama got in game after game. I think both showed signs of ‘getting it’ and doing better avoiding foul trouble late in the season and with more experience and better backups, JB will able to protect them more and they will be playing in the last 5 minutes of games more..

Quincy started last season a complete mess. No doubt the year layoff hurt him but most players really struggle their freshman year adjusting to the bigger, stronger, faster players and the faster pace of college ball. Quincy was no exception. Further, it looked like he thought he was a perimeter based player with a great outside shot, and it took him a long time to figure out what his role was, and how he could contribute to the team. I think he will be a lot better next season knowing his role and knowing how effective he can be playing inside, getting rebounds, drawing fouls and making tough baskets. I expect he will be more effective shooting as well, ranging from mid range jumpers to outside shots. He has great form on his jumper and will become a good outside shooter in time.

Braswell was hurt all season and was a complete non factor. Hopefully that will not be the case next year. He has the capability to really help the team on defense and with his outside shooting. It is gold to have a player like him who has been in the system for a few years on the roster. He should know his role and should be able to contribute quality minutes. Really hoping he will be a James Southerland for us. He is more than capable of making a solid contribution.

Then we have Woody Newton to add to the mix. You never know what a freshman is going to do his first year. Not many are ready to be stars right away. One big thing Woody brings to the table, from what I have seen watching his games, is the ability to play quality defense. It looks like he can shoot too. I am thinking he is probably our backup plan for depth at forward, in case Braswell is still hurt. Either way, I see us having a heatlhy backup forward who can help that we did not have last season.

Then you add Alan Griffin into the mix and things get really interesting. I believe in numbers. I think they have meaning. I don’t see the efficiency numbers Alan put up last year as an aberration. It is rare to find players who can shoot from the outside like Alan can and finish in the paint as well as he can. I think he is well suited for the role Elijah filled last year as the center of the offense. He won’t pass it as well as Elijah. That was, to me, Elijah’s biggest skill and where we will miss him the most. He was very good at sensing double teams, finding the open man and getting his teammates quality looks.

I think Alan is going to put up better rebounding numbers than Elijah did, even though he is shorter and not as strong as Elijah. Rebounding is about effort and willingness to mix it up. Alan has more of that in him than Elijah did. I expect teams are going to pick on Alan’s area of the zone to take advantage of his inexperience and relative lack of height and strength and I expect they will have some success here.

I don’t think they will have the level of success they had attacking Andrew White, another guy who transferred in to play forward but he will be a weak link in our zone. He will be late on rotations, be out of position and prone to getting beat on alley oops and players sneaking in behind him. That said, I don’t think Elijah was ever great or even good in our 2-3. I saw him as adequate and perhaps a little less than adequate given his struggles to get rebounds. In that area (rebounding), again, I expect Alan will be a small upgrade.

We will also have the option of playing Kadary some at small forward. Again, having an option like this was not something the team last season had available. Compare what we had last season with a compromised Marek, Quincy confused and struggling to adjust to college ball most of the season, Elijah struggling with his efficiency on and off and really nothing else. Heck, there were times we had to put Buddy at the 3 to get through some games.
When Elijah was on, he was terrific; as good as anyone in the conference or the country. The problem was, he was not on as much as he could have been. Hence him shooting 42% from the field and 34% from the 3.

At center, again, I think we will be significantly better. I think the vastly improved numbers Bourama put up late in the season have meaning. I think he started to get it. I think he started to show some discipline avoiding foolish fouls, showed more confidence finishing and above all, more willingness to fight for positions and rebounds down low. He, like Marek will be a senior and I expect him to take a big step up his final season.

As for the backups, I think everyone sees the talent and athletic ability Edwards has. He needs time in the weight room, more experience and more time to mature and grow into a man. He should be stronger and better next year. I worry about whether he will have access to good facilities to work out and build his body up in The Netherlands but I am confident he will be improved and more of a help next season. If he can hold his own, just play good defense and rebound, it will allow Marek to focus on playing forward, which I think is one of the keys to next season.

I think if you look at it, many of the games Marek gets in foul trouble are games he plays a lot of minutes at center. He gets put in situations he shouldn’t be put in playing center and ends up fouling players too often.
This is surely one of the reasons the staff has looked at adding a center with more bulk to the roster for next season.

Regardless of whether that works or not (it is hard to get good player to transfer in for what is likely going to be a backup role), we will have a center with what I will call ACC bulk and strength on the roster next season. Jon Bol Ajak will be available to play. He went from 198 pounds in October to 218 in February, which makes me think he will be in the 230 range by the start of next season (he expects to be at 235). I think having a serviceable body available to play minutes at that weight is going to be a big help avoiding getting killed inside by big strong guys. Having a big, strong guy option on the roster should also play a big role in helping keep Bourama and Marek out of foul trouble.

So we are seeing the mathematical models predicting Syracuse to be a top 25 team. Some of you disagree with the models. Fine, perhaps you are right. As far as I know, they don’t account for incoming frosh at all and there is no way to account for players that were hurt or players that are really young and likely to improve a lot. I think there are a number of extenuating circumstances for this team that should ensure that it performs at least as good as the models are saying.

Just my take on why I think this team is going to be good. I am a huge Syracuse fan and do not pretend to be objective. I could be wrong. I am not sure we are going to be a top 25 team but I am very confident we will be an NCAA team and be a very entertaining team to watch play. It will be showtime at the dome next season. Good timing getting those new high resolution scoreboards to watch the replays!

 

[jdubs30]

Not sure why people think it’s an “insult to Eli” that we could be better this year. We literally have everyone else coming back; all of whom will be a year older, stronger, and most likely improved

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Not sure why people think it’s an “insult to Eli” that we could be better this year. We literally have everyone else coming back; all of whom will be a year older, stronger, and most likely improved

Except for our best scorer and our backup guards. I know kaddary is supposed to be better, but I won’t believe it until I see it. Been fooled by that too often.

And efficiencies change when you go from being a backup to the man. We shall see what griffin does when he’s expected to produce for 40 minutes with the other teams best defender in his shorts. And handle the ball when joe is getting hounded by a fast tough guard.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Alan Griffin was the 6th most efficient player on offense in the country last year. I think adding someone with his skills to our returning players is going to make us very difficult to stop on offense.

Combine that with expected modest improvements on defense and I think we will be better. I don’t see the horrific dysfunction that the team had last season out of conference. That was a a young team trying to find itself. That was JB trying to figure out who his point guard was and what his rotations were.

We are going to have more quality depth at guard, forward and center. That is going to be a big help.
People like to criticize JB for playing JG3 and Buddy too much last season but if you look objectively at the numbers, the backups all played poorly. It was tough to justify playing the other options and hope that they would start playing better and eventually help the team.

In short, I think our guard play will be better if for no other reason than I think we will see that Kadary is a huge upgrade over the backup guards we had last season. Add to that JG3 was a true frosh last season and had to make the adjustment to playing college ball and playing PG all at the same time. I think it is reasonable he will be more comfortable and better with a year of experience. His assists to turnover numbers were solid and I think his shot selection and shooting in general will be better, in part because he will be more experienced and in part because he will be playing with a much more balanced and effective set of teammates on offense.

My two big concerns with Joe last season were 1) shot selection and 2) defense. Joe took a lot of shots last season that were ill advised. I think part of that was Joe being Joe. He is a scorer and is going to get his shots. You don’t average 50 ppg in HS being tentative. That is his mentality and something he needs to control playing point guard. I also think part of it was the dysfunctional offense we had last season. For much of the year, Bourama, Quincy and even Marek were not threats to score. You had teams opening telling the press that they knew all they had to do we stop Elijah, Buddy and Joe from scoring and they would win.

There was pressure on Joe to score almost from the minute he started playing. That leads to taking bad shots. I think Bourama, Marek and Quincy will all be significantly better on offense next season. I expect Kadary is going to be another scoring option for the team from day one. Joe is going to have it easier running the offense with a much improved roster.

I expect Buddy will be better too. He is by all accounts the hardest worker on the team. He gets stronger each season. He added a mid range jumper and the ability to drive and score to his game last season, along with much improved passing and improved defense and I think he will continue to get better. Personally, I think his efficiency was hurt last season by playing too many minutes and I think with Kadary on the team, he will get a chance to rest more and be at his best more in games (that applies to JG3 too).

I think Kadary is likely going to make a significant impact from day one. He played for arguably the best team in HS/prep basketball last season and was arguably the best player on the team. He brings a skill set to the team we did not have last season. He is exceptional at getting to the basket and he is not a one dimensional scorer...he is also a terrific passer. And he can rebound, and when motivated, he can play outstanding defense. After playing a season against top notch players in practice and in games, he should be well prepared to contribute at Syracuse right away.

And if we have an injury or foul trouble, there is Alan Griffin available to step in here.

At forward last year, we had Elijah, Marek and Quincy. Elijah scored a lot of points but he wasn’t that efficient scoring those points and his rebounding (or lack thereof) was a real problem in many games. Way too many games where he played 39 minutes and got 2 or 3 rebounds. His passing and help bringing the ball up and running the offense and his leadership will be missed but Marek has some of those skills and I think he can step in. One of the biggest reasons Elijah was so valuable last year was because of PG play was so suspect much of the year. JG3 was inconsistent, as young players are, and will continue to get better. And Kadary is going to be able to do things none of our guards could do last year. I really enjoyed watching Elijah play. He was a very good player for us. But he was not Superman. He really struggled shooting from the outside for large parts of the season. He struggled to finish inside a lot and missed many relatively easy short shots with someone close by. That is why his efficiency numbers are so low relative to a player like Alan Griffin.

Marek broke his finger in the summer and completely lost his shooting touch from the outside, He even struggled to make medium and short shots than he normally is a lock to make. I do not expect that to happen again and see him being much more efficient his senior season. I also expect him to be in foul trouble a lot less. One of the biggest reasons we were not an NCAA team last season was the almost continuous foul trouble Marek and Bourama got in game after game. I think both showed signs of ‘getting it’ and doing better avoiding foul trouble late in the season and with more experience and better backups, JB will able to protect them more and they will be playing in the last 5 minutes of games more..

Quincy started last season a complete mess. No doubt the year layoff hurt him but most players really struggle their freshman year adjusting to the bigger, stronger, faster players and the faster pace of college ball. Quincy was no exception. Further, it looked like he thought he was a perimeter based player with a great outside shot, and it took him a long time to figure out what his role was, and how he could contribute to the team. I think he will be a lot better next season knowing his role and knowing how effective he can be playing inside, getting rebounds, drawing fouls and making tough baskets. I expect he will be more effective shooting as well, ranging from mid range jumpers to outside shots. He has great form on his jumper and will become a good outside shooter in time.

Braswell was hurt all season and was a complete non factor. Hopefully that will not be the case next year. He has the capability to really help the team on defense and with his outside shooting. It is gold to have a player like him who has been in the system for a few years on the roster. He should know his role and should be able to contribute quality minutes. Really hoping he will be a James Southerland for us. He is more than capable of making a solid contribution.

Then we have Woody Newton to add to the mix. You never know what a freshman is going to do his first year. Not many are ready to be stars right away. One big thing Woody brings to the table, from what I have seen watching his games, is the ability to play quality defense. It looks like he can shoot too. I am thinking he is probably our backup plan for depth at forward, in case Braswell is still hurt. Either way, I see us having a heatlhy backup forward who can help that we did not have last season.

Then you add Alan Griffin into the mix and things get really interesting. I believe in numbers. I think they have meaning. I don’t see the efficiency numbers Alan put up last year as an aberration. It is rare to find players who can shoot from the outside like Alan can and finish in the paint as well as he can. I think he is well suited for the role Elijah filled last year as the center of the offense. He won’t pass it as well as Elijah. That was, to me, Elijah’s biggest skill and where we will miss him the most. He was very good at sensing double teams, finding the open man and getting his teammates quality looks.

I think Alan is going to put up better rebounding numbers than Elijah did, even though he is shorter and not as strong as Elijah. Rebounding is about effort and willingness to mix it up. Alan has more of that in him than Elijah did. I expect teams are going to pick on Alan’s area of the zone to take advantage of his inexperience and relative lack of height and strength and I expect they will have some success here.

I don’t think they will have the level of success they had attacking Andrew White, another guy who transferred in to play forward but he will be a weak link in our zone. He will be late on rotations, be out of position and prone to getting beat on alley oops and players sneaking in behind him. That said, I don’t think Elijah was ever great or even good in our 2-3. I saw him as adequate and perhaps a little less than adequate given his struggles to get rebounds. In that area (rebounding), again, I expect Alan will be a small upgrade.

We will also have the option of playing Kadary some at small forward. Again, having an option like this was not something the team last season had available. Compare what we had last season with a compromised Marek, Quincy confused and struggling to adjust to college ball most of the season, Elijah struggling with his efficiency on and off and really nothing else. Heck, there were times we had to put Buddy at the 3 to get through some games.
When Elijah was on, he was terrific; as good as anyone in the conference or the country. The problem was, he was not on as much as he could have been. Hence him shooting 42% from the field and 34% from the 3.

At center, again, I think we will be significantly better. I think the vastly improved numbers Bourama put up late in the season have meaning. I think he started to get it. I think he started to show some discipline avoiding foolish fouls, showed more confidence finishing and above all, more willingness to fight for positions and rebounds down low. He, like Marek will be a senior and I expect him to take a big step up his final season.

As for the backups, I think everyone sees the talent and athletic ability Edwards has. He needs time in the weight room, more experience and more time to mature and grow into a man. He should be stronger and better next year. I worry about whether he will have access to good facilities to work out and build his body up in The Netherlands but I am confident he will be improved and more of a help next season. If he can hold his own, just play good defense and rebound, it will allow Marek to focus on playing forward, which I think is one of the keys to next season.

I think if you look at it, many of the games Marek gets in foul trouble are games he plays a lot of minutes at center. He gets put in situations he shouldn’t be put in playing center and ends up fouling players too often.
This is surely one of the reasons the staff has looked at adding a center with more bulk to the roster for next season.

Regardless of whether that works or not (it is hard to get good player to transfer in for what is likely going to be a backup role), we will have a center with what I will call ACC bulk and strength on the roster next season. Jon Bol Ajak will be available to play. He went from 198 pounds in October to 218 in February, which makes me think he will be in the 230 range by the start of next season (he expects to be at 235). I think having a serviceable body available to play minutes at that weight is going to be a big help avoiding getting killed inside by big strong guys. Having a big, strong guy option on the roster should also play a big role in helping keep Bourama and Marek out of foul trouble.

So we are seeing the mathematical models predicting Syracuse to be a top 25 team. Some of you disagree with the models. Fine, perhaps you are right. As far as I know, they don’t account for incoming frosh at all and there is no way to account for players that were hurt or players that are really young and likely to improve a lot. I think there are a number of extenuating circumstances for this team that should ensure that it performs at least as good as the models are saying.

Just my take on why I think this team is going to be good. I am a huge Syracuse fan and do not pretend to be objective. I could be wrong. I am not sure we are going to be a top 25 team but I am very confident we will be an NCAA team and be a very entertaining team to watch play. It will be showtime at the dome next season. Good timing getting those new high resolution scoreboards to watch the replays!

You’re trying to compare efficiency between two players in very disparate situations. How often did Griffin have to face the other team’s best defensive player? For Eli it was nearly every time. Let’s see what Griffin does when he’s expected to play 33+ minutes before anointing him better than our best player last year.

I could quibble with many other points in your lengthy post, but I’m trying to keep this to just AG.

But Buddy’s passing improved?

 

[CuseFaninVT]

We will be, at the very worst, the same as we were last year. I’m excited for the season

That’s fair.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Even with Eli we should have had two more wins had he not got hurt against Nc State and Miami. We were terrible in close games this year. That is something we need to change.

 

[UpstateSM]

Even with Eli we should have had two more wins had he not got hurt against Nc State and Miami. We were terrible in close games this year. That is something we need to change.

This typically gets better with experience. JG3 having a year of running point under his belt should definitely help.

Foul trouble can impact closing games too, that’s why I think it’s important we get another big so Marek doesn’t have to close any games at the 5. (Assuming Jesse would redshirt)

 

[MSOrange]

You’re trying to compare efficiency between two players in very disparate situations. How often did Griffin have to face the other team’s best defensive player? For Eli it was nearly every time. Let’s see what Griffin does when he’s expected to play 33+ minutes before anointing him better than our best player last year.

I could quibble with many other points in your lengthy post, but I’m trying to keep this to just AG.

But Buddy’s passing improved?

You spelled our exactly my concern with Tom's argument regarding Griffin. Obviously I hope he's right but I'm not certain how his efficiency will carry over having to carry more of the load in more minutes.

 

[reedny]

You’re trying to compare efficiency between two players in very disparate situations. How often did Griffin have to face the other team’s best defensive player? For Eli it was nearly every time. Let’s see what Griffin does when he’s expected to play 33+ minutes before anointing him better than our best player last year.

I could quibble with many other points in your lengthy post, but I’m trying to keep this to just AG.

But Buddy’s passing improved?

I don't think Tom's arguing that the ceiling's a lot higher, only that the floor is - with the current roster. The issue of the Griffin/Hughes equivalency will be debated all year. Except for that, it's hard to dispute Tom's points: 1) last year's early games were a mess with a freshman PG; 2) Q took half a season to find his role; 3) MD struggled at center; and 4) we had limited or no depth at guard, SF or center all year (Q being the lone exception at PF late in the season). Most teams with those structural deficiencies (the floor) would be happy with 18 wins.

Next year, yes we have Griff instead of Hughes. We'll see how that goes. Much more importantly, IMO, we will have a functioning bench. Bras (woody), Kadary and Q will take a lot of pressure off the starters and keep them fresher for late-game situations. The missing piece (the ceiling) is backup center. Sid is a good player, who finally arrived down the stretch last year. When he plays well we are a different team. However, he still picks up fouls and disappears in some matchups (2 points against Ped State, GT, ND, Wake, NC-St and UM). He needs a backup like oxygen - and I don't think the staff feels confident that JBA or Edwards is the answer or they wouldn't be shaking the bushes for a backup 5.

So I agree that last year, if we win just a couple of the 3 or 4 early OOC games we gave away we would have been a 20+ win team. And this year, if Griff fits in as advertised and our bench (Kadary, Bras and Q) contributes as we should expect, this could be a top 25-30 team. A beefy backup center/rim protector could make us really good. But no matter what happens with that piece, this team will be fun to watch.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I don't think Tom's arguing that the ceiling's a lot higher, only that the floor is - assuming the current roster sticks. The issue of the Griffin/Hughes equivalency will be debated all year. Except for that, it's hard to dispute Tom's points: 1) last year's early games were a mess with a freshman PG and no functional backup; 2) Q took half a season to find his role; 3) MD is a net liability at center; and 4) we had no functional bench at all three levels ... pretty much all year (Q being the lone limited exception). Most teams with those structural deficiencies (the floor) would be happy with 18 wins.

Next year, yes we have Griff instead of Hughes. We'll see how that goes. Much more importantly, IMO, we will have a functioning bench at guard (with KR backing up) and forward (Bras, Woody). The missing piece (the ceiling) is center. Sid is a good player, who finally arrived down the stretch last year. However, he still picks up fouls and disappears in some matchups (he scored only 2 points against Ped State, GT, ND, Wake, NC-St and UM). He needs a backup like oxygen - which is why the staff is shaking the trees for 5 help. I like Edwards and think he has lots of potential. But the urgency that the staff is showing tells me that they don't feel Edwards is physically ready.

So I agree that we're an NCAA team this year - just taking away 3 or 4 early OOC losses would have made us a 20+ win team. If Griff fits in as advertised and our bench contributes as we all hope and expect I think this could be a top 25-30 team. With a beefy backup center I think we could be even better. Either way this team will be fun to watch.

Way too many ifs right now to come to conclusions like that. That’s all I’m saying.

We’ve been saying this is the year the bench really contributes for the better part of a decade or so it feels. Yet our starters seem to play more minutes than all other legit teams.

I really hope Braswell comes back and is able to play unencumbered. As soon as he shows us that, I’ll start changing my tune. And Marek stops picking up ridiculously stupid fouls 90 feet from the basket. Or starts knocking down jumpers again. Or Kadary doesn’t get yanked 5 seconds after making a mistake. Or Griff becomes the go to guy at the end of a game. Or Buddy develops the ability to drive all the way to the basket and finish. Or Joe shows he can be the full time point guard even when he’s pressed by a great defender...

Sorry Reed, not really meant towards you. I’ve just seen two many offseason pie in the sky predictions for too many years. He’ll, I've even been guilty of typing them out myself.

 

[sutomcat]

You’re trying to compare efficiency between two players in very disparate situations. How often did Griffin have to face the other team’s best defensive player? For Eli it was nearly every time. Let’s see what Griffin does when he’s expected to play 33+ minutes before anointing him better than our best player last year.

I could quibble with many other points in your lengthy post, but I’m trying to keep this to just AG.

But Buddy’s passing improved?

Not interested in arguing further about it. Let’s see what happens next season. For the record, I siad simply that the team would be better and make the NCAA tournament. They were not far from it last season. It won’t take much to get there. I believe I predicted the team would go 18-13 last season. Don’t think I am a hopeless optimist.

I think this will be a very enjoyable team to watch, especially if you like scoring (for both teams).

Surprised you are so down on the team. Do you actually think they are going to be worse?

 

[Briancuse]

These Bart tovik rankings make no sense. He has him avg 5 ppg next year. He avg 9 last year.

 

[two3zone]

Except for our best scorer and our backup guards. I know kaddary is supposed to be better, but I won’t believe it until I see it. Been fooled by that too often.

And efficiencies change when you go from being a backup to the man. We shall see what griffin does when he’s expected to produce for 40 minutes with the other teams best defender in his shorts. And handle the ball when joe is getting hounded by a fast tough guard.

If he sustains the efficiency numbers then his old coach is the worst coach in the history of basketball.

 

[Orangezoo]

At this point it's going to come down to seeing a better brand of basketball and wins in the mid twenties. We have beaten the potential, what comes next conversation to death.

There are a lot of what ifs. If Griffin can carryover his efficiency numbers it will be the result of the returning players and at least one of the freshmen taking a major step forward. I am still optimistic but really need to see a good start/first 12-15 games. We have been an inconsistent mess in the non conference even since our last FF season. The Atlantis tournament seems like forever ago..

 

[Cuse1055]

At this point it's going to come down to seeing a better brand of basketball and wins in the mid twenties. We have beaten the potential, what comes next conversation to death.

There are a lot of what ifs. If Griffin can carryover his efficiency numbers it will be the result of the returning players and at least one of the freshmen taking a major step forward. I am still optimistic but really need to see a good start/first 12-15 games. We have been an inconsistent mess in the non conference even since our last FF season. The Atlantis tournament seems like forever ago..

Remember when it always seemed like we never lost in the non conference? Seems so long ago.

 

[kcsu]

Alan Griffin was the 6th most efficient player on offense in the country last year. I think adding someone with his skills to our returning players is going to make us very difficult to stop on offense.

Combine that with expected modest improvements on defense and I think we will be better. I don’t see the horrific dysfunction that the team had last season out of conference. That was a a young team trying to find itself. That was JB trying to figure out who his point guard was and what his rotations were.

We are going to have more quality depth at guard, forward and center. That is going to be a big help.
People like to criticize JB for playing JG3 and Buddy too much last season but if you look objectively at the numbers, the backups all played poorly. It was tough to justify playing the other options and hope that they would start playing better and eventually help the team.

In short, I think our guard play will be better if for no other reason than I think we will see that Kadary is a huge upgrade over the backup guards we had last season. Add to that JG3 was a true frosh last season and had to make the adjustment to playing college ball and playing PG all at the same time. I think it is reasonable he will be more comfortable and better with a year of experience. His assists to turnover numbers were solid and I think his shot selection and shooting in general will be better, in part because he will be more experienced and in part because he will be playing with a much more balanced and effective set of teammates on offense.

My two big concerns with Joe last season were 1) shot selection and 2) defense. Joe took a lot of shots last season that were ill advised. I think part of that was Joe being Joe. He is a scorer and is going to get his shots. You don’t average 50 ppg in HS being tentative. That is his mentality and something he needs to control playing point guard. I also think part of it was the dysfunctional offense we had last season. For much of the year, Bourama, Quincy and even Marek were not threats to score. You had teams opening telling the press that they knew all they had to do we stop Elijah, Buddy and Joe from scoring and they would win.

There was pressure on Joe to score almost from the minute he started playing. That leads to taking bad shots. I think Bourama, Marek and Quincy will all be significantly better on offense next season. I expect Kadary is going to be another scoring option for the team from day one. Joe is going to have it easier running the offense with a much improved roster.

I expect Buddy will be better too. He is by all accounts the hardest worker on the team. He gets stronger each season. He added a mid range jumper and the ability to drive and score to his game last season, along with much improved passing and improved defense and I think he will continue to get better. Personally, I think his efficiency was hurt last season by playing too many minutes and I think with Kadary on the team, he will get a chance to rest more and be at his best more in games (that applies to JG3 too).

I think Kadary is likely going to make a significant impact from day one. He played for arguably the best team in HS/prep basketball last season and was arguably the best player on the team. He brings a skill set to the team we did not have last season. He is exceptional at getting to the basket and he is not a one dimensional scorer...he is also a terrific passer. And he can rebound, and when motivated, he can play outstanding defense. After playing a season against top notch players in practice and in games, he should be well prepared to contribute at Syracuse right away.

And if we have an injury or foul trouble, there is Alan Griffin available to step in here.

At forward last year, we had Elijah, Marek and Quincy. Elijah scored a lot of points but he wasn’t that efficient scoring those points and his rebounding (or lack thereof) was a real problem in many games. Way too many games where he played 39 minutes and got 2 or 3 rebounds. His passing and help bringing the ball up and running the offense and his leadership will be missed but Marek has some of those skills and I think he can step in. One of the biggest reasons Elijah was so valuable last year was because of PG play was so suspect much of the year. JG3 was inconsistent, as young players are, and will continue to get better. And Kadary is going to be able to do things none of our guards could do last year. I really enjoyed watching Elijah play. He was a very good player for us. But he was not Superman. He really struggled shooting from the outside for large parts of the season. He struggled to finish inside a lot and missed many relatively easy short shots with someone close by. That is why his efficiency numbers are so low relative to a player like Alan Griffin.

Marek broke his finger in the summer and completely lost his shooting touch from the outside, He even struggled to make medium and short shots than he normally is a lock to make. I do not expect that to happen again and see him being much more efficient his senior season. I also expect him to be in foul trouble a lot less. One of the biggest reasons we were not an NCAA team last season was the almost continuous foul trouble Marek and Bourama got in game after game. I think both showed signs of ‘getting it’ and doing better avoiding foul trouble late in the season and with more experience and better backups, JB will able to protect them more and they will be playing in the last 5 minutes of games more..

Quincy started last season a complete mess. No doubt the year layoff hurt him but most players really struggle their freshman year adjusting to the bigger, stronger, faster players and the faster pace of college ball. Quincy was no exception. Further, it looked like he thought he was a perimeter based player with a great outside shot, and it took him a long time to figure out what his role was, and how he could contribute to the team. I think he will be a lot better next season knowing his role and knowing how effective he can be playing inside, getting rebounds, drawing fouls and making tough baskets. I expect he will be more effective shooting as well, ranging from mid range jumpers to outside shots. He has great form on his jumper and will become a good outside shooter in time.

Braswell was hurt all season and was a complete non factor. Hopefully that will not be the case next year. He has the capability to really help the team on defense and with his outside shooting. It is gold to have a player like him who has been in the system for a few years on the roster. He should know his role and should be able to contribute quality minutes. Really hoping he will be a James Southerland for us. He is more than capable of making a solid contribution.

Then we have Woody Newton to add to the mix. You never know what a freshman is going to do his first year. Not many are ready to be stars right away. One big thing Woody brings to the table, from what I have seen watching his games, is the ability to play quality defense. It looks like he can shoot too. I am thinking he is probably our backup plan for depth at forward, in case Braswell is still hurt. Either way, I see us having a heatlhy backup forward who can help that we did not have last season.

Then you add Alan Griffin into the mix and things get really interesting. I believe in numbers. I think they have meaning. I don’t see the efficiency numbers Alan put up last year as an aberration. It is rare to find players who can shoot from the outside like Alan can and finish in the paint as well as he can. I think he is well suited for the role Elijah filled last year as the center of the offense. He won’t pass it as well as Elijah. That was, to me, Elijah’s biggest skill and where we will miss him the most. He was very good at sensing double teams, finding the open man and getting his teammates quality looks.

I think Alan is going to put up better rebounding numbers than Elijah did, even though he is shorter and not as strong as Elijah. Rebounding is about effort and willingness to mix it up. Alan has more of that in him than Elijah did. I expect teams are going to pick on Alan’s area of the zone to take advantage of his inexperience and relative lack of height and strength and I expect they will have some success here.

I don’t think they will have the level of success they had attacking Andrew White, another guy who transferred in to play forward but he will be a weak link in our zone. He will be late on rotations, be out of position and prone to getting beat on alley oops and players sneaking in behind him. That said, I don’t think Elijah was ever great or even good in our 2-3. I saw him as adequate and perhaps a little less than adequate given his struggles to get rebounds. In that area (rebounding), again, I expect Alan will be a small upgrade.

We will also have the option of playing Kadary some at small forward. Again, having an option like this was not something the team last season had available. Compare what we had last season with a compromised Marek, Quincy confused and struggling to adjust to college ball most of the season, Elijah struggling with his efficiency on and off and really nothing else. Heck, there were times we had to put Buddy at the 3 to get through some games.
When Elijah was on, he was terrific; as good as anyone in the conference or the country. The problem was, he was not on as much as he could have been. Hence him shooting 42% from the field and 34% from the 3.

At center, again, I think we will be significantly better. I think the vastly improved numbers Bourama put up late in the season have meaning. I think he started to get it. I think he started to show some discipline avoiding foolish fouls, showed more confidence finishing and above all, more willingness to fight for positions and rebounds down low. He, like Marek will be a senior and I expect him to take a big step up his final season.

As for the backups, I think everyone sees the talent and athletic ability Edwards has. He needs time in the weight room, more experience and more time to mature and grow into a man. He should be stronger and better next year. I worry about whether he will have access to good facilities to work out and build his body up in The Netherlands but I am confident he will be improved and more of a help next season. If he can hold his own, just play good defense and rebound, it will allow Marek to focus on playing forward, which I think is one of the keys to next season.

I think if you look at it, many of the games Marek gets in foul trouble are games he plays a lot of minutes at center. He gets put in situations he shouldn’t be put in playing center and ends up fouling players too often.
This is surely one of the reasons the staff has looked at adding a center with more bulk to the roster for next season.

Regardless of whether that works or not (it is hard to get good player to transfer in for what is likely going to be a backup role), we will have a center with what I will call ACC bulk and strength on the roster next season. Jon Bol Ajak will be available to play. He went from 198 pounds in October to 218 in February, which makes me think he will be in the 230 range by the start of next season (he expects to be at 235). I think having a serviceable body available to play minutes at that weight is going to be a big help avoiding getting killed inside by big strong guys. Having a big, strong guy option on the roster should also play a big role in helping keep Bourama and Marek out of foul trouble.

So we are seeing the mathematical models predicting Syracuse to be a top 25 team. Some of you disagree with the models. Fine, perhaps you are right. As far as I know, they don’t account for incoming frosh at all and there is no way to account for players that were hurt or players that are really young and likely to improve a lot. I think there are a number of extenuating circumstances for this team that should ensure that it performs at least as good as the models are saying.

Just my take on why I think this team is going to be good. I am a huge Syracuse fan and do not pretend to be objective. I could be wrong. I am not sure we are going to be a top 25 team but I am very confident we will be an NCAA team and be a very entertaining team to watch play. It will be showtime at the dome next season. Good timing getting those new high resolution scoreboards to watch the replays!

Excellent take Tom. Great point on Mareks injury.

 

[Todoubled23]

Indeed. Every now and again when I start getting heated up about something I see posted, I stop and take a breath and just think that, regardless of what was posted, we're all SU fans and I would absolutely enjoy watching a game with anyone who takes time out of their day to post on this silly message board.

Cheers!

 

[orangejunkie]

Has the NCAA formally voted to allow a one year exemption on transfer eligibility or are they set to vote on it in the future? Reading this chain it appears that the board is saying it is a done deal. If Griffen gets the waiver it will be great for him and SU but there are a lot of teams who will also be automatically better, including some of our ACC opponents.