Last night was brutal—absolutely brutal. Terrible performance on both sides of the ball. I’m generally a serial optimist, so the purpose of this post is not to gripe about the loss, but rather to focus on some of the root causes of what went wrong. I’m not trying to be pessimistic / overly negative, but rather objective about where our team stands, and where each player is on their respective developmental curve. I still believe that this team has a lot of potential, but there are a LOT of things that need to get fixed in order for this team to bounce back and qualify for the NCAAs. In no particular order…
- The fallacy of Rak as a go-to scorer: 10 and 10. Those are the benchmark goals for Rakim Christmas this year. And with the expanded offense he’s shown, he is more than capable of attaining double figures scoring for the first time in his career. He’s actually got better offensive skills than most give him credit for, and as we saw in the first two games—he’s got a different mindset this year. But IMO, the mindset change is part of the problem. Despite what JB says about Rak being a “go to” guy this season, Rak isn’t capable of producing in that role. He took it to heart, and is forcing shots up. That’s not to say that he can’t exceed the 10ppg projection I list above—he absolutely can—but Rak needs to settle down into an equilibrium of taking good shots, and not forcing every time he touches the ball. Sometimes, he starts to make his move too far away from the basket. He also took several contested jump shots. He also needs to do a better job getting the ball out of the post when double teams are coming instead of trying to just bull his way through the double team to force up a highly contested shot. And we simply can't afford to have him picking up offensive fouls on ill-advised scoring attempts, when he's our only legitimate pivot right now. Once he eliminates this type of bad shot selection from his play and settles in as a consistent role player / complimentary scorer, he’ll challenge for all ACC. But if he continues to try to get 15+ shots per game, the team is going to suffer. Rak needs to concentrate on taking good shots, and not trying to do too much. Less will be counter-intuitively more with him when it comes to offense. I’m actually quite confident he’ll get there.
- The team offensive concept is non-existent: Yesterday proved without a shadow of a doubt that this is true. We have zero—ZERO—cohesion on offense right now. Everything is one-on-one, with virtually nothing coming from our offensive sets [which we abandoned running about 3 minutes into the game]. Too much forcing, too much trying to make something happen too quickly, not enough patience offensively, too many new faces trying to do too much on their own. Our PG is doing an extremely poor job right now of executing our half court offensive sets—which is exacerbating all of the issues mentioned above. Until Joseph starts to orchestrate the half court offense, this team is going to continue to struggle. And where is our passing? We don't accumulate very many assists--everything is one-on-one. Now compare that to the outstanding team passing Cal demonstrated last night. We have to start playing together to right the ship. Our offensive issues are as much about poor execution as it is about inexperience right now.
- Roles are still undefined: This problem manifests every year early on—every year teams have attrition, younger players step into bigger roles, and new freshmen get integrated into the rotation, and everybody has to figure out where things fit offensively. Once they do, the offense begins to run more smoothly. The problem is, we lost a LOT of scoring from last year, and we have an inordinate amount of new faces, most of whom are entirely inexperienced [even the sophomores]. Right now, every time a player like Patterson or BJ touches the ball, they want to shoot. Their roles might look different come mid-season, but right now this goes hand in hand with the lack of team offensive concept issue discussed above—and we need to get this straightened out so that our offensive play improves.
- We don’t shoot the ball well collectively… again…: Last year’s team couldn’t have been more anemic offensively. And a big reason for that was the inconsistency of the few shooters that the team did have—prompting many posters to express the belief that we had nowhere to go but up. And on paper, they’re right. This year’s squad has several players who, on paper, can shoot the ball effectively. Cooney. Gbinije. Patterson. BJ. Joseph. And even McCullough / Roberson. All capable of hitting shots from 17 feet out to the three point line. The only problem is, not one of these guys has been consistent in our first several games. This has to change.
- McCullough isn’t quite as good as advertised: But he’s still pretty good. I think that his main issue is lack of strength, and lack of inclination to battle inside. He’s got all of the tools, and a pretty good frame for an incoming frosh. He’s got a lithe, wiry build—I didn’t expect him to come in and be a bruiser like JR Reid, and we all know that in 3 years he’s going to be a 240 pound brick sh-t house. But right now, he’s too finesse-oriented. I love the kid’s jumper. But when he gets pushed around inside, he starts to float toward the perimeter where he can get open easier. He’s also dribbling too much. He’d be better off getting into the box and scrumming inside. Work the glass harder, and get easier scoring opportunities closer to the basket, or get fouled and get to the free throw line. Start closer, then take jumpers if the opportunity presents itself. But I don’t think he’s quite good enough to put the team on his back and be the focal point of the offense—especially not if he drifts around on the wing instead of getting down in the paint where we need him [especially on the offensive boards]. And that’s not just an indictment of McCullough—the entire team needs to toughen up and play meaner, giving better effort both on the glass and defensively.
- Kaleb Joseph: It’s time for the Joseph one-and-done chatter to stop. I want to be clear—I love this kid’s game and his potential. I 100% believe that he is going to be an NBA player. But he isn’t anywhere close to being ready to make the jump this year. That's good news for next season, but it complicates things this year--given how reliant upon him we are to provide quality lead guard play. He’s got the raw ability, but right now he seems to demonstrate very little of the acumen needed to run a team and orchestrate an effective offensive attack. Too much dribbling out high. Yes, he looks to feed the post, which is good, but he needs to do more. Very little drive and dish. His strength is penetration, so get into the lane, let the defense react to what you’re doing, and set up your teammates for easy scores. The game seems to be moving a little too fast for him right now, and he’s so out of synch that his offensive game is suffering. It also doesn’t help that he’s settling for jumpers. Mark my words—Joseph is going to be very, very good. But we need him to start playing more like a point guard.
- Trevor Cooney: I really like Cooney, but I’m tired of the inconsistency. He’s like the second coming of McNamara—volume shooter who can get on a roll, but doesn’t seem to have those nights very often, and is off more than he’s on. Cooney would be great on a team with three other quality scorers, where he is more of a complimentary weapon who gets lots of open looks. He doesn’t create much if he isn’t shooting well, although I’m pleased to see him taking it to the basket more in the last two games. We need more of that. Especially when the shot isn’t dropping. Otherwise, he’s too one dimensional.
- Tyler Roberson: There was a point early in the first half where I thought that the switch had finally flipped for Roberson. He’d just hit a tough bank shot off glass for his first score, and then the next few trips down the floor he was handling the ball confidently, driving into the lane, etc. I honestly thought—wow, I’m seeing the light go on for this kid right before my eyes. But it was short lived, and he quickly back slid back into largely ineffectual play. I don’t mean to be hyper critical of Roberson; I think he can be a very good player for us. I like his shot, and his tenacity on the backboards. But what I’ve come to realize is that he’s playing out of position. This kid ins’t a 3, he’s an undersized power forward. Next year, if McCullough leaves, he’ll slide over to his more natural position at 4 and things will click for him. But this year, he’s just not acclimating to playing out of position, and in general has been a liability. He is thinking too much, and not playing instinctively. It has even adversely impacted his top skill—rebounding—neutralizing his effectiveness on the glass. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s replaced in the starting lineup by Gbinije, who offers the versatility / more natural 3 skill set that Roberson just isn’t showing right now.
- Michael Gbinije: Silent G is perhaps the only player I don’t have much to criticize about. He’s been solid in all three games, and is improved over last year. I still am not convinced that he is much more than an 8-11 ppg scorer, but there’s nothing wrong with that if it ends up being the case [and I’d love for him to prove me wrong]. Unlike Roberson, Gbinije is a threat to drive to the basket. Unlike Roberson, he’s playing comfortable—which is at least partially a function of the experience he gained last year, where he looked entirely uncomfortable a lot [which is one of the reasons I expect Tyler to round into form next year, after getting a dose of PT this season]. Gbinije isn’t a dead eye shooter—nobody on this team is—but at least he’s a threat. I think it’s time to pull the trigger on this change and get him into the starting lineup. My only hesitation is whether he can hold up on the backboards playing the back end of the zone, but its not like Roberson was lighting it up on the glass, either.
- Ron Patterson: Simply put, we need Patterson to play better. This team collectively lacks three point shooting as well as backcourt depth, and this one kid could help rectify both problems in one with more consistent play. In the first couple of outings, he looked supremely confident looking to put the ball up. Now, he’s not getting to his spots as quickly. He is also someone who can provide a defensive spark with his hustle. Maybe yesterday was just a bad outing, but he provided zero of either dimension yesterday. And this is something that has to get addressed--we’re going to need Ron to step up and replace some bench scoring if Gbinije shifts into the starting lineup. Simply put, he has to do more.
- BJ Johnson: I don’t want to be TOO hard on Johnson, both because he’s one of my favorite players on the team and because he is really just getting his first dose of playing time these last few games. But last night was a flat out terrible outing. We all know he can shoot—but when the shot’s not dropping, find a way to get closer to the basket. Play inside out FIRST, before settling for a bunch of jump shots. And that weak drive where he got stuffed and fell down? Initiate contact and play through it, BJ—get to the foul line, don’t go up weak. This is another bench player who needs to round into form. Him [and Patterson] doing so would go a LONG way toward addressing a major team shortcoming.
- Chinoso Obokoh: I like Obokoh’s potential as a reasonably effective back-up big, but I just don’t think he’s ready. I don’t expect him to get much time this season, based upon the substitution patterns we’ve seen thus far. Which is important because…
- DeJuan Coleman: …it puts some pressure on this guy to improve / return as quickly as possible from his injury. The problem is, we have no idea whether he’ll be able to physically bounce back soon enough or not. I’m torn as to whether it’s better to get DCII back even at a diminished capacity—say, 80%—to rectify the lack of an experienced quality big behind Rak to address a short term need, or whether we’d be better off shutting him down for the entire year, and potentially having him back for TWO full strength seasons post-Rak. I don’t think that we’ll know where Coleman stands for at least another full month—in other words, the entire pre-season portion of the schedule.
Okay, so that’s a lot of issues. What needs to change for this team to turn the corner offensively?
- Kaleb Joseph needs to run the half court offensive sets more effectively
- McCullough needs to play a little closer to the basket
- Rak needs to exercise a bit more discretion about when to shoot
- Cooney / Patterson / BJ need to find the range
- We need to shelve some of the one-on-one and do a better job passing the ball
- Gbinije needs to play more and give the team a legit 3 with a 3’s skill set
- Roberson needs to play less, unless he steps up
Will be interesting to see what the team does tonight, and whether they bounce back against a tough Iowa team that was one of the better squads in the B1G last year. Will we rise to the occasion or did we get exposed? We’ll find out in four hours.
Let’s Go Orange!!!
