This will be a big test for the Orange. Syracuse has had a bad run against the Knights the last few times out. Frankly, Army treats this game as their Super Bowl, and the last couple outings the Orange have looked like the '85 New England Patriots. I do think there is a way forward with this game.
The Knights are very good all over the field, but I still have some questions about their goalie. Like LaxAddict38 pointed out, he is indeed at 55% right now, but that's largely based on an eight save, one goal against outing against Mercer. He has yet to make more than nine saves in a game (vs UMass) and was below 50% before the Mercer game (Seven saves and seven goals against vs Rutgers). The Army defense frankly hasn't been tested much this year due to their very good FOGO. If (very big if) Kohn and Mullen can battle to about even (Weirman was 18-35 vs Colletti last year) I think the SU offense can put up points.
On defense, Mark needs to make double digit saves. Matthew Knote had 16 saves against Army to keep that one close, though Army won 21-29 face-offs. It feels like Mark needs to make at least 12 saves this game to make sure Syracuse is in this one till the end, assuming SU can win more than a couple face-offs.
As for matchups, I have to imagine Dwan will take Jackson Eicher, Army's leading scorer who stands over 6'4 (because, of course). That leaves Figuerias on Reese Burek who leads the team in assists with seven (though he also has eight turnovers in just three games). The tricky part is the midfield, where Army has two very good players, Evan Plunkett and Jacob Morin (both have seven points this year). Personally, I might put Olexo down on close and tell him to pump up to Morin when he is on the field, and have Matt Wright mark Plunkett. That leaves a shorty on Gunnar Fellows (6'2, because of course). Not sure what Oderina might do this game, but it seems he will have to get creative. As good as Army's offense is, they are not incredily deep, the five guys listed above to the bulk of the lifting (no other player has more than three points, outside of Colletti). SU has to take care of the knowns for this game if they want to win.
On offense, I'll be curious to see how SU attacks the Army defense. AJ Pillate will certainly take Spallina, he's very good. If Spallina gets bottled up again, someone else from the starting attack needs to step up. That means Mule or Hiltz needs to have a big game here - somewhere in the neighborhood of a five point game here. They can't allow the second or third option on defense get the better of them for a second consecutive big game. Pressure is on.
Perhaps the UMass game was just first game jitters for the Black Knights, but that game gives me hope that SU has a chance here. They need to play extremely well, but this team has the talent to beat Army. Additionally, they need this to be a good home environment and Syracuse needs to take advantage of this home schedule, especially with games against Hopkins, Cornell and UNC being either neutral or away games. I'm picking a 14-12 score line in favor of the home team for this one. Go Orange.
As always good stuff. Army definitely has been a thorn in SU's side for a long time despite SU dominating in the wins since the early 1980s. I think its clear Army gets up for this game and at times it feels like SU hasn't matched their intensity. You would hope that losing the last two contests would help that.
This current Army team is an outlier from what you usually see. Usually Army has an elite level goalie, very good defense and an offense that usually has an alpha type player and a decent but inconsistent supporting cast featuring 2 productive mid lines. This year their Offense has a very talented top 6 with 3 or 4 guys capable of dropping 5+ pts against pretty much anytime. The defense is still very solid with a lock down defender in Pillate and two very good SSDM's. That said their goalie is still a major question mark and their secondary poles aren't bad by any stretch but can be attacked. Their starting LSM is pretty good, not Maryland level good but he will present an issue to English or Leo.
Faceoffs will likely be similar to the Maryland game. Colletti is an excellent fogo and probably just a touch below Weirman and Naso who I think are probably the top 2 in the country. One aspect that will be huge is wing play. Army's wings play a good sized role in their faceoff success and SU has been up and down there. Thought the wings struggled against Maryland and Stevens only have 1 gb isn't gonna work against Army. Another very difficult matchup for Kohn but he just needs to be in the neighborhood of 50%, anything beyond that is gravy.
Offensively the same concerns I had against Maryland are in play here. Can someone beyond Joey get something done at the attack? Game will mostly hinge as you noted on Hiltz and Mule. If they have 1 pt each again SU's probably going to lose. Hiltz has shown he can dodge but has to start taking more shots and putting more on cage. He's also continuing to turn the ball over way to much. 11 Turnovers for him is untenable when you consider he isn't a primary ball carrier or dodger on this offense. Less sportscenter highlight passes and more shots, he's passing up way to many good looks for his skill level. With Mule it's just about effectiveness. I think SU thought they were getting another Kirst who could be that secondary dodger in the starting attack. Instead it's been a mixed bag and he's not done a lot of dodging. Reminds me a bit of Mikey Berkman both good and bad. It's clear this team really misses Kirst and could really use a secondary dodger in that spot. Leo maybe the answer next year but right now he seems highly unlikely to be moved. Feels like Birtwistle is the answer, really hope if Mule struggles we see a change up. Elijah-Brown would be interesting but hard to drop him into a game like this. Was hoping he would have seen some extended run against Utah.
From a midfield perspective, Army's SSDM's are a very good unit, probably top 10 if not better in D1. They can struggle with elite foot speed though, a guy like Leo and Hottle could pose problems. I am unclear who Army will pole, teams are still sticking with English. Assuming they bump to Leo, English has to have a monster game. He has 5 pts this year all on goals with no assists. SU could really use a breakout game from him or Stevens. Thomson showed flashes of his talent last week against Utah. It was very encouraging to see him not only hit from distance but dodge for a goal I think inverted or from GLE behind the cage. SU has to get him on track against one of these better teams. Again if he's a mess like vs Maryland SU has to have a quick hook and go to Rhoa or Birtwistle.
Defensively this will be the best offense SU has seen so far this year. Eicher missed pretty much all of last year with an injury but is back and the leading scorer. He's the X guy and loves to dodge from behind. He's not a huge assist guy though as he only has 2 on the year. Burek is the their facilitator and a guy who will setup that dangerous midfield over and over if you left him. He's by far the assist leader with 7 and has 3 goals on the year. The third attackmen is Fellows and will be the guy SU will have to short.
With Army's midfield you almost have to double poll because Morin and Plunkett are so dangerous. Rutgers tried to short Morin and he torched them for 3 goals and 4 pts overall. I really hope SU doesn't try and play Army straight up, our SSDM's are improved but asking them to cover Morin or Plunkett won't work. Plunkett was unreal last year but he's struggled a little bit this year seeing an SLM almost exclusively. He had 4 goals against RU but was shut out by Umass an Mercer. He is more of a facilitator then Morin with 3 assists to Morin's 1 on the year. Both love to shoot from distance and won't hesitate to rip from 12-15 yards+. SU defenders will have to stay on hands as these two will dodge more to shoot then feed and will cross field dodge ala Curry.
From a matchup standpoint I disagree slightly with Powell. I think Dwan on Burek and Fig on Eicher. SU put Dwan on Utah's leading assist guy last week and he erased him. Eicher will have a few inches on Fig but he's been taking every teams top scorer and I think he needs to draw Eicher at least to start. Assuming SU double poles the midfield I do like Powells suggestion of bumping down Olexxo to close and running Wright at LSM. I am not sure SU will do that because Schmitt the third LSM hasn't really played much outside of blowouts. If SU trusts him to play that 2nd LSM role I think this would give SU its strongest matchup potential. I would put Olexxo on Plunkett and try and take him out and Wright on Morin. If it's Caccamo playing that third close spot the matchup is unclear. I assume SU may try him on Plunkett first and role Olexxo on Morin. However, I agree with Powell I think you need to play two LSM's here if at all possible. I assume Rice will draw Fellows the third attackmen. Just have to hope for the best. Levine with his size should see a lot of time as well.
To me this game is likely to come down to Intangibles. SU has pretty good numbers when you look at GB's and turnovers but have still struggled usually for a quarter or so each game with both (see the 1st qtr versus Maryland and Utah). Getting down 5-2 or 6-1 to Army in the 1st would be a disaster, have to really try and avoid that bad quarter. SUs physical game against Colgate a few weeks ago should help here. As Army usually plays a tough/physical style that has at times given SU problems. Groundballs will again be enormous here. Army feels like they end up with every loose groundball, SU needs to really battle here. I also think SU needs Mark to have his best game of the year. He's been good but will need to be north of 50% for them to win tomorrow. Has to be ready to see a bunch of long range bombs from Army's midfield. This isn't a must win game by any stretch but a loss here and I think the questions really start being asked.
