Big 12 to expand...or not

[orangeinjersey]

All the GOR does is give the Big XII the contract rights to each school's home games. Thus any school can leave the Big XII but the conference would own their rights till 2025. If Texas left tomorrow to the ACC. The Big XII would control the Texas home games thru 2025.

Thus, if a bunch of schools left ESPN/FOX would still pay the Big XII for the rights butt the schools left would get paid but the gravy train would end in 2o25. It isn't known if the conferences would still have to pay the schools that left. It is likely they would but no conferences is taking a new school without having their TV rights.

you didnt really answer my question, ESPN/Fox pays THE CONFERENCE. If a bunch of schools LEAVE the conference, is their a contractual/legal stipulation as to what constitutes a conference? i.e. X number of original members? any 10 schools? I guess what i am asking, is at what point is this all null/void

 

[orangefog]

As it stands right now, there are 64 teams in the P5 conferences. Notre Dame makes it 65. So, if the remaining conferences go to 16 teams, there will only be one team left out (if the B12 teams all find a home, less one). It will be interesting to see who goes where, or if anyone else is invited to the big table before the B12 explodes. It might be in all but Texas' best interest to start finding new homes now, instead of inviting potential competitors.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

If the "Little Seven," -- WVU, ISI, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State -- have any hope of retaining P5 status once Texas, Oklahoma and, possibly, Kansas, bolt for another conference, they might be wise to expand now with the best the G5 can offer. I do believe Texas has called Iowa State's bluff: There will be no GOR extension. Want to stand pat?

 

[Janner]

Popcorn and soda

 

[HRE Otto IV]

As it stands right now, there are 64 teams in the P5 conferences. Notre Dame makes it 65. So, if the remaining conferences go to 16 teams, there will only be one team left out (if the B12 teams all find a home, less one). It will be interesting to see who goes where, or if anyone else is invited to the big table before the B12 explodes. It might be in all but Texas' best interest to start finding new homes now, instead of inviting potential competitors.

While that might seem simple, I doubt we see 4 x 16. The P12 isn't going to 16 unless Texas comes. Even then they might stay at 14 if Oklahoma prefers the B1G.

If I had to predict I would say:
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Okie State go to the P12
Kansas and UConn go to the B1G
TCU and WV go to the SEC
Cincy goes to the ACC
K State, Iowa State, Baylor get left out.

 

[PhatOrange]

All the GOR does is give the Big XII the contract rights to each school's home games. Thus any school can leave the Big XII but the conference would own their rights till 2025. If Texas left tomorrow to the ACC. The Big XII would control the Texas home games thru 2025.

Thus, if a bunch of schools left ESPN/FOX would still pay the Big XII for the rights butt the schools left would get paid but the gravy train would end in 2o25. It isn't known if the conferences would still have to pay the schools that left. It is likely they would but no conferences is taking a new school without having their TV rights.

what if Texas played all of their home games at a 'neutral site' ?

and if the conference broke apart, is it still a conference?

 

[longtimefan]

Read the article the Big XII is safe till 2025. The GOR will hold in Court.

Texas and Oklahoma basically have decided they won't commit long term. The SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 all want in one way want one or both of Oklahoma and Texas.
Expansion is dead until those schools decide what they want. Kansas likely will get a raft to one of the other 4. Oklahoma State wants Oklahoma to save them. Texas Tech wants to Texas to save them. Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, West Virginia are all screwed and have to do whatever it takes to keep OU and UT happy.

Good analysis. I would point out, though, that 2025 may not be the strike date. Per this piece:

"The most likely scenario for a school seeking to leave would be to wait about six years. That would avoid extended court battles and leave two years until the 2025 expiration to extricate itself from the Big 12."

 

[longtimefan]

While that might seem simple, I doubt we see 4 x 16. The P12 isn't going to 16 unless Texas comes. Even then they might stay at 14 if Oklahoma prefers the B1G.

If I had to predict I would say:
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Okie State go to the P12
Kansas and UConn go to the B1G
TCU and WV go to the SEC
Cincy goes to the ACC
K State, Iowa State, Baylor get left out.

What about ND and BYU?

And, do you really think UConn and Cincy would leapfrog the 3 current Big XII members?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

What about ND and BYU?

And, do you really think UConn and Cincy would leapfrog the 3 current Big XII members?

ND is already in the ACC. No one wants BYU. They have no shot if the B12 goes away. Why in the hell would anyone take BU, ISU, KSU? They add nothing.

Baylor/TCU have zero chance at the ACC, B1G, P12. The SEC might take one more Texas school if they miss out on Texas/Oklahoma but that means only one of Baylor/TCU survives.

Iowa State has no chance at the ACC, P12, SEC. The B1G might consider them but IMO they rather stay at 14 than add Iowa State and one crap team.

Kansas State has no shot at the ACC or B1G. The SEC could consider them if they needed a 16th but I think they rather take East Carolina than K State. Which leaves the P12. That is a long shot as it would mean Kansas, K State, and two other lessor schools go. I think the P12 rather take just Kansas and go to 14 than have 16 and K State.

 

[HtownOrange]

I wonder if their is contract language in about the GOR and "what is considered a conference". For example, we all know that GOR broadcast rights stay with the conference. But lets say, UT, OU KU and OSU all find a new home. Does the "conference" still legally exist with the remaining 6 members?? If such langauge existed, couldnt it be considered poaching season already??

If I was KU, i would be making overtures to the B1G10 ASAP. I wouldnt leave anything to UT or OU control, i would control my own destiny.

The contract has a dissolution clause, what it requires is anyone's guess. An example: If 70% agree to dissolve the conference then the conference is no more. Also, ESPN and Fox likely have certain conditions that must be maintained, again, anyone's guess. Realistically, if OU and UT pull out, there is no more conference.

This may be OU and UT telling the networks to up their payout, based on the B1G contract. It's all fun and games until Iowa State* has nowhere to go.

*Or TTU, KState, OkieState, Baylor, TCU, WVU.

 

[CuseCactus]

Popcorn and soda

Thank GOD Syracuse can watch this happen from the stands. We got very lucky given the shite that our football has become.

 

[HtownOrange]

Thank GOD Syracuse can watch this happen from the stands. We got very lucky given the shite that our football has become.

I completely agree with the first sentence and I respectfully disagree with the second half of your comment for the following reasons:

Syracuse was an ACC target since FSU was a target, both could have joined simultaneously.
Syracuse was offered ACC membership after Miami and before VATech.
Syracuse was a B1G target, they simply did not get the requisite votes.
Syracuse, without NYC, is still a larger "state" (upstate) with 10MM people than most states. Simply put too big to ignore; compare with Iowa (2 P5), OK (2 P5), WVU (1 P5), Kansas (2 P5), Kentucky (2P5), Tennessee (2 p5), PA (2 p5), etc.
Syracuse with NYC is a top 4 gem; Cali, Tejas, FL and NY make up the big 4 in population.
Syracuse football has history.
Syracuse hoops has history and is a power.
Syracuse lacrosse has history and is a power (Lesser importance, but enough to be considered for the ACC and B1G, a tie breaker if nothing else)
Syracuse has a good academic history (the former Chancellor notwithstanding)
The Dude claimed Syracuse would be left out. As most things The Dude stated were false, this statement was almost reassuring, especially when repeated often.
Rutgers was invited to the P5, yes, because of proximity to NYC, but they have no sports history of value.

Anyway, the above shows why I was never worried about getting left out. That said, Please pass the popcorn. Popcorn

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The contract has a dissolution clause, what it requires is anyone's guess. An example: If 70% agree to dissolve the conference then the conference is no more. Also, ESPN and Fox likely have certain conditions that must be maintained, again, anyone's guess. Realistically, if OU and UT pull out, there is no more conference.

This may be OU and UT telling the networks to up their payout, based on the B1G contract. It's all fun and games until Iowa State* has nowhere to go.

*Or TTU, KState, OkieState, Baylor, TCU, WVU.

But does anyone really know what the GOR states? If it is tied to the TV contract and the networks dissolve the TV contract because Texas leaves, does that dissolve the GOR as well?

 

[Toga]

But does anyone really know what the GOR states? If it is tied to the TV contract and the networks dissolve the TV contract because Texas leaves, does that dissolve the GOR as well?

I know I know ...
Summertime Conference Realignment Walking Dead: A Look at the Big 12 Grant of Rights Agreement | FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT

 

[HtownOrange]

But does anyone really know what the GOR states? If it is tied to the TV contract and the networks dissolve the TV contract because Texas leaves, does that dissolve the GOR as well?

The GOR probably can only be dissolved by vote of the conference members.

SPECULATION DISCLAIMER:

However, if Texas and Oklahoma leave, the networks can make an efficient breach with the Big 12. This would result in the remaining teams not getting what they bargained for. It is likely that they would get something, but nothing close to what they would get with Texas and OU. Though the Conference may own the rights to UT and OU home games, conferences will NOT want to advertise another conference in their conference time slots.

The Big 12 could argue the GOR and force UT and OU to pay them. So what, once the GOR is done, there would be no significant deal for the remainders. The remainders would then begin looking for themselves and jump at the first life raft that comes there way. Once that number dwindles down to a small enough number, or the GOR ends, the result would be no more conference.

Ultimately, UT and OU can afford to break the agreement outright. If they wanted to do so, they would. It is likely that they are content with the status quo, there is no need for immediate action unless it benefits them. As such, they can jockey for position with the networks. As noted in threads, blogs, and sports sites, the problem with Big 12 expansion is there are no obvious choices, no home runs. Aside from Houston and Cincy, there are no triples in the mix, mostly singles and walks. Also, UT and OU are the two that can write their own ticket out of the Big 12, they are in the driver's seat. There probably is much more cooperation between these two than many would believe. If they want something, they will win the argument in the end.

I have begun to think that the networks would like to keep more elite conferences (possibly stepping up one or two more) rather than simply four super conferences. More conferences will make it harder to unify and extort more money sooner as the B1G deal proves the conferences are still underpaid. Plus, having too small a field of elite level teams (currently P5) endangers the creme de la creme to having to play more power games than bottom feeders and mid-pack teams.

 

[CuseOnly]

you didnt really answer my question, ESPN/Fox pays THE CONFERENCE. If a bunch of schools LEAVE the conference, is their a contractual/legal stipulation as to what constitutes a conference? i.e. X number of original members? any 10 schools? I guess what i am asking, is at what point is this all null/void

I am not sure that any amount of teams leaving can dissolve anything unless there is specific language stating that in the conference bylaws or contract. SO there are 10 teams now and 7 decide to leave, technically they are leaving the conference and I don't think they would be able to just dissolve it on their way out the door. Could they all together vote to dissolve, possibly but what does that do to their conference TV partners and their contracts, I am sure they could sue every team that was once in the conference for breach of contract.

What incentive would there be to the teams staying in the conference to vote to dissolve? If they can even do that. Wouldn't they want to keep the TV contracts alive and add new members to make up for those leaving.

Reminds me of a great band...then the face of the band, the lead singer leaves...usually the band keeps the name and finds a new lead singer. Depending on what is in the contract of course.

 

[HtownOrange]

I am not sure that any amount of teams leaving can dissolve anything unless there is specific language stating that in the conference bylaws or contract. SO there are 10 teams now and 7 decide to leave, technically they are leaving the conference and I don't think they would be able to just dissolve it on their way out the door. Could they all together vote to dissolve, possibly but what does that do to their conference TV partners and their contracts, I am sure they could sue every team that was once in the conference for breach of contract.

What incentive would there be to the teams staying in the conference to vote to dissolve? If they can even do that. Wouldn't they want to keep the TV contracts alive and add new members to make up for those leaving.

Reminds me of a great band...then the face of the band, the lead singer leaves...usually the band keeps the name and finds a new lead singer. Depending on what is in the contract of course.

Seen from the networks' point of view, if the Big 12 dissolves, the teams may be disbursed to other conferences, remaining viable inventory for live games. The networks may benefit via not paying as much overall or may lose a little by having to negotiate a larger payout to the conferences. Over time, the net value to the networks will not change, they will still have inventory regardless of the make up of the conferences.

 

[rrlbees]

Seen from the networks' point of view, if the Big 12 dissolves, the teams may be disbursed to other conferences, remaining viable inventory for live games. The networks may benefit via not paying as much overall or may lose a little by having to negotiate a larger payout to the conferences. Over time, the net value to the networks will not change, they will still have inventory regardless of the make up of the conferences.

Been saying it for well over a decade, and being told no way, but it'll end at 4x16. It's getting closer and closer.

 

[Moontan]

Been saying it for well over a decade, and being told no way, but it'll end at 4x16. It's getting closer and closer.

If so, I don't see all of of the XII surviving while some G5 may sneak in.
Texas politics may try to force Austin to keep the XII together.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I am not sure that any amount of teams leaving can dissolve anything unless there is specific language stating that in the conference bylaws or contract. SO there are 10 teams now and 7 decide to leave, technically they are leaving the conference and I don't think they would be able to just dissolve it on their way out the door. Could they all together vote to dissolve, possibly but what does that do to their conference TV partners and their contracts, I am sure they could sue every team that was once in the conference for breach of contract.

What incentive would there be to the teams staying in the conference to vote to dissolve? If they can even do that. Wouldn't they want to keep the TV contracts alive and add new members to make up for those leaving.

Reminds me of a great band...then the face of the band, the lead singer leaves...usually the band keeps the name and finds a new lead singer. Depending on what is in the contract of course.

The only way it would work is if 7 of the 10 teams have homes and want to get out early. Say that in 2020 Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Okie State announce they are going to the P12 in 2026. Then Kansas announces it is going to the B1G in 2026. Followed by WV leaving for the ACC or SEC, and one of TCU/Baylor leaving for the SEC. At that point wouldn't the 7 schools vote to dissolve so they could go to their new homes in 2022 instead of 2026?

Also I would bet that the TV contracts become null and void should Texas leave. So the left behinds wouldn't have that option. Plus I still haven't seen any confirmation of whether the GOR is tied to the conference or to the TV contract. Does the conference own the TV rights or does ESPN/Fox own the TV rights. That is a huge difference.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Been saying it for well over a decade, and being told no way, but it'll end at 4x16. It's getting closer and closer.

I think 3 x 18 and 1 x 12 is more likely at this point. The P12 screwed up not taking Oklahoma/Okie State when they had the chance. I think Texas rather go East than West, which means the P12 will never be more than 12. To get to 3 x 18 you would need to add 11 teams from Texas, Oklahoma, Okie State, Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UConn, Cincy, Temple, ECU, UCF, USF.

I think you see:

B1G: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, UConn
SEC: Okie State, Houston, WV, ECU
ACC: Cincy, Temple, UCF

 

[SU2NASA]

I think 3 x 18 and 1 x 12 is more likely at this point. The P12 screwed up not taking Oklahoma/Okie State when they had the chance. I think Texas rather go East than West, which means the P12 will never be more than 12. To get to 3 x 18 you would need to add 11 teams from Texas, Oklahoma, Okie State, Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UConn, Cincy, Temple, ECU, UCF, USF.

I think you see:

B1G: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, UConn
SEC: Okie State, Houston, WV, ECU
ACC: Cincy, Temple, UCF

The Big Ten already regrets Rutgers, they won't add UConn.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The Big Ten already regrets Rutgers, they won't add UConn.

If they can get Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas their choices for #18 are Iowa State or UConn. Seems like an easy choice to take the better market and better BBall program.

 

[sutomcat]

I think 3 x 18 and 1 x 12 is more likely at this point. The P12 screwed up not taking Oklahoma/Okie State when they had the chance. I think Texas rather go East than West, which means the P12 will never be more than 12. To get to 3 x 18 you would need to add 11 teams from Texas, Oklahoma, Okie State, Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UConn, Cincy, Temple, ECU, UCF, USF.

I think you see:

B1G: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, UConn
SEC: Okie State, Houston, WV, ECU
ACC: Cincy, Temple, UCF

I can see a P5 conference taking Texas and Oklahoma. Maybe WVU. Maybe Kansas. The others? Why? This isn't a charity.

Can't see the SEC ever taking ECU.

Can't see the ACC taking Cincy, Temple and UCF. Why would they do that? Those schools aren't going to help the existing ACC schools make more money.

If ND becomes a full member, the ACC will add another to get to an even number. If it is Texas, that is the only scenario I see where the ACC gets to 18, if Oklahoma also wants in. The 18th school would be a real free for all...the last helicopter out of Saigon.

 

[elimunelson]

I think this is all starting to end game. I think the end game will be that the politics in Texas will determine the endgame. I also wouldn't underestimate government intervention if college football essentially shuns teams from their new cabal.

The black swan events are Texas govt making some deal and Congress getting their hands on this set up.