bracketmatrix.com still has us in

[Eric15]

It was updated late last night. I know we're all depressed, but is it possible that our glimmer of hope isn't quite as small as we think it is?

http://bracketmatrix.com

 

[Marsh01]

problem is that things wont stay the same and we will be slipping down the ladder daily to the point where we are out

 

[orangenirvana]

I imagine a majority of those brackets they cite are not updated until later today.

 

[RF2044]

problem is that things wont stay the same and we will be slipping down the ladder daily to the point where we are out

Tend to agree. Our only--and I mean literally our ONLY--shot is to have no big surprises emerge from mid-major conferences, no upset conference champions who were out of the NCAA picture heading into this week, etc.

 

[Eric15]

problem is that things wont stay the same and we will be slipping down the ladder daily to the point where we are out

I know, I guess my point is... the general vibe of the board is that we have like a 1% of getting in, while it might be closer to 20%.

 

[heresjohnny88]

I know, I guess my point is... the general vibe of the board is that we have like a 1% of getting in, while it might be closer to 20%.

20-25% is probably accurate. Honestly, our best chance might be a few committee members making the case that we've passed the eye test (maybe if they watched the game @ UNC or how we fought back vs. Pitt).

 

[Marsh01]

I know, I guess my point is... the general vibe of the board is that we have like a 1% of getting in, while it might be closer to 20%.

My guess is right now we are at about 15%.

The ONLY hope we have is if the following happen

As RF said no surprises going forward. No 8 seeds winning their tourneys and stealing bids. Bubble teams need to keep losing and we need to stay at least on par with these teams. If 2-3 teams make a run to the finals then we are cooked.

They take into consideration JB's suspension. I think they will but losing 5 of 6 WITH him on the sidelines to end the season kind of screws up that theory.

They take into consideration our top 50 wins. St. Bona now is looking like a pretty good win.

Lets just say this. I would be 100 times more shocked if I hear our name called on Sunday than I was when we didnt hear our name called in 2007.

We had our chance and blew it. Noone to blame this time. Not the committee for sure if we dont get in.

 

[Ryand877]

My guess is right now we are at about 15%.

The ONLY hope we have is if the following happen

As RF said no surprises going forward. No 8 seeds winning their tourneys and stealing bids. Bubble teams need to keep losing and we need to stay at least on par with these teams. If 2-3 teams make a run to the finals then we are cooked.

They take into consideration JB's suspension. I think they will but losing 5 of 6 WITH him on the sidelines to end the season kind of screws up that theory.

They take into consideration our top 50 wins. St. Bona now is looking like a pretty good win.

Lets just say this. I would be 100 times more shocked if I hear our name called on Sunday than I was when we didnt hear our name called in 2007.

We had our chance and blew it. Noone to blame this time. Not the committee for sure if we dont get in.

Agree unfortunately.

 

[TheCusian]

My guess is right now we are at about 15%. The ONLY hope we have is if the following happen As RF said no surprises going forward. No 8 seeds winning their tourneys and stealing bids. Bubble teams need to keep losing and we need to stay at least on par with these teams. If 2-3 teams make a run to the finals then we are cooked. They take into consideration JB's suspension. I think they will but losing 5 of 6 WITH him on the sidelines to end the season kind of screws up that theory. They take into consideration our top 50 wins. St. Bona now is looking like a pretty good win. Lets just say this. I would be 100 times more shocked if I hear our name called on Sunday than I was when we didnt hear our name called in 2007. We had our chance and blew it. Noone to blame this time. Not the committee for sure if we dont get in.

The stealing bids theory is a bit overblown. It's way more likely that a 1-7 seed improves their seeding than a bubble team stealing a bid at the p5 level. I'd watch the upper mid-major for a UCONN type to get hot as more probable than an 8 seed in a major conference.

The quality of losses with JB >>> the quality of losses with Hop

The chair just said yesterday that they take his absence into account.

The rest of the bubble remains really really weak.

 

[Eric15]

Lets just say this. I would be 100 times more shocked if I hear our name called on Sunday than I was when we didnt hear our name called in 2007.

Isn't our resume this year objectively better than our resume in 2007? Did we have a single quality non-conference win in 2007?

 

[Marsh01]

Isn't our resume this year objectively better than our resume in 2007? Did we have a single quality non-conference win in 2007?

probably but everyone (including all the pundits) had us in that year.

 

[NineOneSeven]

probably but everyone (including all the pundits) had us in that year.

Did Greenberg have us in?

 

[Marsh01]

Did Greenberg have us in?

He has everyone in

 

[Ryand877]

Lunardi has us as first team out now. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/254

 

[TexanMark]

We are what we are...I'm calling NIT

You can't lose all these late season games and expect to get in.

 

[Nicknack]

Many here keep saying that we don't deserve it because we lost 5 out of our last 6 games. Obviously losing that many at the end is not good. However, the committee is charged with looking at a team's full body of work, not just a snapshot. If they do that, in comparison to other bubble teams, we stand a reasonable chance at still making the dance.

Boeheim's absence: I've read many posts where people are tossing this out simply because of those 5 losses at the end but again, if the committee looks at the whole body of work (as they should) there is a significant difference between what we did with Boeheim and what we did without him.

This is coming directly from committee chairman Joe Castiglione (as reported by Sportingnews.com):
"In Syracuse's case, we recognize you have a Hall of Fame coach who has assembled his team, knows his team,'' NCAA tournament selection committee chairman Joe Castiglione said. "To pretend he's not a difference-maker would be a mistake."

Looking at the FULL BODY of WORK... Syracuse went 4-5 in Boeheim's absence. When he returned, the team won 15 of 23 games. That, my friends, is a significant difference.

I'm not saying that this will give us enough of a boost to get into the tourney. I just think we stand a better chance than what most others on the board feel.

 

[Marsh01]

Many here keep saying that we don't deserve it because we lost 5 out of our last 6 games. Obviously losing that many at the end is not good. However, the committee is charged with looking at a team's full body of work, not just a snapshot. If they do that, in comparison to other bubble teams, we stand a reasonable chance at still making the dance.

Boeheim's absence: I've read many posts where people are tossing this out simply because of those 5 losses at the end but again, if the committee looks at the whole body of work (as they should) there is a significant difference between what we did with Boeheim and what we did without him.

This is coming directly from committee chairman Joe Castiglione (as reported by Sportingnews.com):
"In Syracuse's case, we recognize you have a Hall of Fame coach who has assembled his team, knows his team,'' NCAA tournament selection committee chairman Joe Castiglione said. "To pretend he's not a difference-maker would be a mistake."

Looking at the FULL BODY of WORK... Syracuse went 4-5 in Boeheim's absence. When he returned, the team won 15 of 23 games. That, my friends, is a significant difference.

It really has little to do with that.

Our biggest hurdle (and I keep saying this) is other teams NOT making a run at a bid. We are hanging on right now with 2 fingers and will slip and fall if other teams close to us make a run. Then JB being out or our resume will mean diddly.

Start praying for teams like Michigan, Florida, Uconn, Cincy, Vanderbilt, USC and Oregon State to lose. These are the teams we are competing against

 

[Nicknack]

I disagree in part, Marsh. It could have very much to do with that IF the committee believes that with Boeheim for the entire season would have resulted in more wins than 19. I do agree that other bubble teams trying to get in is also a VERY important factor - it's just not the only factor in my mind.

 

[bpo57]

My guess is right now we are at about 15%.

The ONLY hope we have is if the following happen

As RF said no surprises going forward. No 8 seeds winning their tourneys and stealing bids. Bubble teams need to keep losing and we need to stay at least on par with these teams. If 2-3 teams make a run to the finals then we are cooked.

They take into consideration JB's suspension. I think they will but losing 5 of 6 WITH him on the sidelines to end the season kind of screws up that theory.

They take into consideration our top 50 wins. St. Bona now is looking like a pretty good win.

Lets just say this. I would be 100 times more shocked if I hear our name called on Sunday than I was when we didnt hear our name called in 2007.

We had our chance and blew it. Noone to blame this time. Not the committee for sure if we dont get in.

I agree with all of that. It also doesn't help that three of our top five Ws happened 3-1/2 months ago.

 

[CusefanATL]

we out

 

[MGP]

I am not optimistic by any means either, but the whole losing 5 out 6 down the stretch thing is a bit misleading as well. Look at the other bubble teams we are being compared to. They've had miserable finishes also. That's why they are on the bubble! Marsh is right in the sense that a team currently off the radar can't get hot and make a run. That's more likely how we will slip, not necessarily falling to the other current bubble teams...

 

[Otto'd]

Many here keep saying that we don't deserve it because we lost 5 out of our last 6 games. Obviously losing that many at the end is not good. However, the committee is charged with looking at a team's full body of work, not just a snapshot. If they do that, in comparison to other bubble teams, we stand a reasonable chance at still making the dance.

Boeheim's absence: I've read many posts where people are tossing this out simply because of those 5 losses at the end but again, if the committee looks at the whole body of work (as they should) there is a significant difference between what we did with Boeheim and what we did without him.

This is coming directly from committee chairman Joe Castiglione (as reported by Sportingnews.com):
"In Syracuse's case, we recognize you have a Hall of Fame coach who has assembled his team, knows his team,'' NCAA tournament selection committee chairman Joe Castiglione said. "To pretend he's not a difference-maker would be a mistake."

Looking at the FULL BODY of WORK... Syracuse went 4-5 in Boeheim's absence. When he returned, the team won 15 of 23 games. That, my friends, is a significant difference.

I'm not saying that this will give us enough of a boost to get into the tourney. I just think we stand a better chance than what most others on the board feel.

I keep seeing this and want to believe it, but in my gut I can't see the NCAA rewarding us for being punished. Because bottom line, that is what it would amount to. Hop lost those games, and JB would probably (lets be real, definitely) have done better, but that is all speculation. If those games mean less as losses to Syracuse, does that mean that they are tainted wins for the people who beat us? How does that work. Will beating Syracuse without JB mean Pitt or Miami gets a lower seed? What team gets bumped out of the tourney with better metrics because they want to put Syracuse in at large because JB was missing?

There is a slippery slope of cascading issues by discounting losses that occurred without JB. I cant see them giving that credence. But then again, this IS the NCAA maybe they will up in our favor for once.

 

[TheCusian]

Do any of these braketologists take JB's absence into account and by how much?

To me that's the wild card. We don't know how much that's been taken into account by guessers and we don't know just how much weight it will hold with the committee.

 

[Knicks411]

I know, I guess my point is... the general vibe of the board is that we have like a 1% of getting in, while it might be closer to 20%.

I think this is probably right, but the right after a brutal loss like the one we had yesterday, the mood is definitely going to trend toward the fatalistic.

I've pretty much convinced myself we're out for sure. I imagine as the days go on I'll convince myself we have a chance, just to allow my heart to get broken again on Sunday evening.

 

[MGP]

Do any of these braketologists take JB's absence into account and by how much?

To me that's the wild card. We don't know how much that's been taken into account by guessers and we don't know just how much weight it will hold with the committee.

Well, sounds like 8 out of 10 will have to...