Brent Axe says Reds job should be in jeopardy

[Sherman20]

I referenced the "boiling frog" metaphor numerous times to talk about the fanbase getting anesthetized to the obvious decline under JB, because many were willing to let it continue and were moving the goal posts about what constituted a successful season.

Agree with the rest of your post, too. This isn't just a 2-year problem under Red. It's an 8 year problem under JB + a 2 year crater under Red. 10 years of irrelevancy. 12 years of double digit losses. 9 out of 12 of 14+ losses, bottoming out with our KenPom / NET ratings being historically bad this year.

Things are dire, no matter what some would like to pretend.

I’m not disagreeing that JB and the administration allowed the program and recruiting to atrophy, but I would argue about 2015 being the end of the “glory days.” Anytime you make Final Fours and Sweet 16s, that’s a huge deal for a program. Yes there was a clear slide since 2015 or 2017, but also some ups and downs that masked the deeper issues with JB in poor recruiting and not building out the program infrastructure. But you can’t ignore the high level successes of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and even 2021 (both in the tourney and the regular season). The tourney runs, especially, put us front and center in the college basketball world and beyond when all the hardcore fans and casual-fans are watching and most invested. That’s relevancy, even if our diehard fanbase was unhappy with the regular season mixed bag. So when people say we were irrelevant those years, they’re wrong. We were front and center in the college basketball world when the most eyeballs are on the sport. Yes, we weren’t atop the sport and in the top 25 like we were for 40 years before that. But most of those years we were in the KenPom top 25-50 at worst and jockeying to make the tourney every year. That, in my opinion, means we can still recover quickly with a good coach and program investment (which Wildhack seems willing to make).

In 2016, we not only made a thrilling Final Four run with two massive wins against Gonzaga and Virginia (the latter a historic game), but we also won the B4A and had a bunch of high profile wins there and in the regular season (I believe we beat Duke). JB was suspended, which led to some head scratching losses and hurt our regular season record. But we wound up finishing the season #27 in KenPom and #10 in the final Coaches poll.

In 2017, we had high expectations but struggled early on in part due to JB taking too long to figure out the PG position and finally give the job to Gillon, and Battle’s early season injury or illness. But then we completely turned things around and had some huge top 20 wins late in the season, though it ended up being too little, too late to make the tourney (and we just missed it). The offense wound up being top 30 but the mediocre zone defense sank us.

In 2018, we were a Sweet 16 team and had some high profile wins in the regular season and especially in the tourney. We finished #41 in KenPom with the #5 best defense in the nation. Basically #26 in the final coaches poll.

In 2019, we were safely in the tourney as an 8 seed, had some big wins in the regular season, and finished top 5 in the ACC. Also finished #39 in KenPom.

In 2021, due to COVID, it took a while to get that team to gel but we were playing very well by the end of the season (thanks to Kadary and Jesse stepping up to a new level) and went on the incredible sweet 16 run. Finished #42 in KenPom and #25 in the final post season coaches poll.

Since 2022, it’s been a hot mess and whole new level of mediocrity that we’ve never seen before, and we must rip off the Band Aid and move on and need to hire a proven high level coach asap. But I do want to push back on this notion that we’ve been irrelevant for a full decade that no one is going to remember the heights of being an elite program.

 

[OrangePA]

Well, Brent also said that he understands why Red’s getting another year and agrees with the rationale.

So WHIPLASH for all of those who reflexively hate on the guy!

While you do make a couple good points, you also have a remarkable ability to only tell one side of the story in your evaluations of coaches and administrators.

First to add the positive, I also give him and Mike Paulus credit for the fundraising for new football complex. Athletics fundraising hasn't been easy at SU in the past and they did a great job with that.

While I think most posters, except those who just won't cut ADJW any slack, realize that there were internal politics involved in the JB transition, I can't rate that as handling the JB retirement well. At best, it's in the middle.

While I think there was a lot of internal and fan pressure to give Dino a contract extension, that ultimately didn't work out. In any managerial profession, you're ultimately judged on whether decisions work out, not whether they made sense at the time.

I think we were way behind other schools in the transition to NIL. Yes it appears that we were trying to play by the rules and do NIL as what it's intended to be, which I respect. But we're behind other schools.

I can't say that Gary Gait has resurrected the men's lacrosse program like many had hoped. Sure they have gotten better, but I think many had expected more than one quarterfinal NCAA game by this point with the resources SU has.

ADJW was very lucky to survive how the Hillsman women's basketball situation was handled.

Why the mass exodus from Syracuse women’s basketball? ‘Ego, manipulation … fear tactics’

Coach Quentin Hillsman is accused of bullying and threatening players and inappropriate physical contact.

www.nytimes.com

There was a transition in the women's lacrosse coaching staff last year that sparked a lot of rumors.

In both of the above situations, I think ADJW is very lucky SU is a private school and doesn't have to comply with open records requests from the media.

The softball, women's soccer and volleyball coaches who have all been hired during his tenure have been basically disasters. Not as many follow the Olympic sports, but they are still part of the job.

The measure of a major college AD has been and will likely remain his/her ability to support/promote the institution's football program. In our case, the linchpin to the success of the football program is the Dome. Wildhack did what many thought was impossible - he reconfigured the building into a modern and more functional venue and resolved the naming rights dilemma. In doing so, he gave the football program - and the rest of the Athletic Department a chance to compete at a high level into the future.

That alone, justifies a positive grade.

I have said before and will repeat it - Dino did a solid job. His difficulties at the end resulted from the same issues that have always plagued our football program - lack of quality depth. The COVID crisis - and all of its ramifications - highlighted the deficiency. And, the endless number of season ending injuries that occurred over his last two seasons - when the team started strong - did the same thing.

So, I don't think Dino is a true downside.

As far as Boeheim is concerned, Wildhack had to traverse a number of hurdles/individuals/political roadblocks. In the end, he facilitated the process quite well. Moving on from a legendary coach who wants to stay is typically not easy and oftentimes very traumatic. See Bob Knight and IU and Woody Hayes an OSU and Joe Paterno and PSU as examples of just how difficult it can be.

So, again, I think Wildhack handled it as well as could be expected. The men's basketball story is ongoing. The University was never going to fire Autry after two seasons - SU just does not operate that way. So, we shall see how the program advances in the next few years.

I will be the first to admit that I do not pay a lot of attention to the so-called Olympic sports - other than men's soccer. [I'm not sure I can include men's lacrosse in that category]. Those sports are important, but I'm not sure they provide the kind of measuring stick that has been suggested.

Dr. Gross spent a lot of time addressing the Olympic sports - and had some success.

Jake Crouthamel spent a lot less time on those sports and did not have much success.

Most would agree, however, that Jake was a far superior AD than was Gross.

As far as the Hillsman situation is concerned, I don't know the details of what occurred on the inside. I can say, however, that I am pretty good friends with a University official who had some responsibility for the women's basketball program - and he was as shocked as any of us over what was eventually disclosed.

There will always be weaknesses in every job performance, but in terms of his fundamental responsibility, John Wildhack has done a great job at SU.

 

[tbonezone]

you take care of the business in your own yard and on your own block before you declare yourself city or state champion. we've been punching bags in the ACC since we joined. and 2 weeks at the end of the season don't change that fact. screw the final 4 flukes. why aren't we playing for league titles ? our average finish under JB and red in conference is bottom tier. maybe bring home a league trophy and we'll talk about greatness. til then we're just yippy little dogs on the front porch reliving our past glory. sad state of affairs but it is what it is. some major changes needed. til then YIP away.

 

[RF2044]

I’m not disagreeing that JB and the administration allowed the program and recruiting to atrophy, but I would argue about 2015 being the end of the “glory days.” Anytime you make Final Fours and Sweet 16s, that’s a huge deal for a program. Yes there was a clear slide since 2015 or 2017, but also some ups and downs that masked the deeper issues with JB in poor recruiting and not building out the program infrastructure. But you can’t ignore the high level successes of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and even 2021 (both in the tourney and the regular season). The tourney runs, especially, put us front and center in the college basketball world and beyond when all the hardcore fans and casual-fans are watching and most invested. That’s relevancy, even if our diehard fanbase was unhappy with the regular season mixed bag. So when people say we were irrelevant those years, they’re wrong. We were front and center in the college basketball world when the most eyeballs are on the sport. Yes, we weren’t atop the sport and in the top 25 like we were for 40 years before that. But most of those years we were in the KenPom top 25-50 at worst and jockeying to make the tourney every year. That, in my opinion, means we can still recover quickly with a good coach and program investment (which Wildhack seems willing to make).

In 2016, we not only made a thrilling Final Four run with two massive wins against Gonzaga and Virginia (the latter a historic game), but we also won the B4A and had a bunch of high profile wins there and in the regular season (I believe we beat Duke). JB was suspended, which led to some head scratching losses and hurt our regular season record. But we wound up finishing the season #27 in KenPom and #10 in the final Coaches poll.

In 2017, we had high expectations but struggled early on in part due to JB taking too long to figure out the PG position and finally give the job to Gillon, and Battle’s early season injury or illness. But then we completely turned things around and had some huge top 20 wins late in the season, though it ended up being too little, too late to make the tourney (and we just missed it). The offense wound up being top 30 but the mediocre zone defense sank us.

In 2018, we were a Sweet 16 team and had some high profile wins in the regular season and especially in the tourney. We finished #41 in KenPom with the #5 best defense in the nation. Basically #26 in the final coaches poll.

In 2019, we were safely in the tourney as an 8 seed, had some big wins in the regular season, and finished top 5 in the ACC. Also finished #39 in KenPom.

In 2021, due to COVID, it took a while to get that team to gel but we were playing very well by the end of the season (thanks to Kadary and Jesse stepping up to a new level) and went on the incredible sweet 16 run. Finished #42 in KenPom and #25 in the final post season coaches poll.

Since 2022, it’s been a hot mess and whole new level of mediocrity that we’ve never seen before, and we must rip off the Band Aid and move on and need to hire a proven high level coach asap. But I do want to push back on this notion that we’ve been irrelevant for a full decade that no one is going to remember the heights of being an elite program.

You are moving the goal posts.

Nobody disputes that there were flashes of success. But those highlights were offset by season performance that was a clear increment below what came before.

Also, sweet 16s -- meh. Getting to the second weekend is fun, but let's not overstate it as an accomplishment to be satisfied about. In the 80s and early 2010s, "only" making the sweet sixteen would be considered a calamity by our fanbase.

I have difficulty reconciling anyone pointing to that era of decline as being on-par with what preceded it.

 

[djcon57]

I have said before and will repeat it - Dino did a solid job.

Oof.

Dino just got fired after like 3 games this year as an OC at Arizona. He’s not good coach.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Nc State didn't put up with incompetence even a year after they made the FF. Really not sure why Autry should survive this years disaster.

 

[kingtidge]

Nc State didn't put up with incompetence even a year after they made the FF. Really not sure why Autry should survive this years disaster.

Keatts also got a 2-year performance-based contract extension through 2030 last year for winning the ACC tournament, a $400k raise, a number of performance bonuses for the NCAA run, etc

It likely was not a cheap buyout for NC St.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Keatts also got a 2-year performance-based contract extension through 2030 last year for winning the ACC tournament, a $400k raise, a number of performance bonuses for the NCAA run, etc

It likely was not a cheap buyout for NC St.

Saw it was 8 mill

 

[atlanticuse]

Saw it was 8 mill

You have to run the numbers.
What is the quantifiable cost to buy out Red vs. loss in revenue (NCAAT, E8, F4, whatever)?

Then what is the long-term reputation cost - which worsens every year we put up with this?
Recruits will become less and less likely to entertain coming to SU.
Transfers will also balk.

We're already at that point of the "U" curve.
Could it get worse? Not much. 14th in ACC? That's abysmal. Close losses are "little solace to those who grieve."

From a paywalled Business Insider article:
The men's college basketball Final Four teams earn $19.3 million in revenue.

 

[Sherman20]

You are moving the goal posts.

Nobody disputes that there were flashes of success. But those highlights were offset by season performance that was a clear increment below what came before.

Also, sweet 16s -- meh. Getting to the second weekend is fun, but let's not overstate it as an accomplishment to be satisfied about. In the 80s and early 2010s, "only" making the sweet sixteen would be considered a calamity by our fanbase.

I have difficulty reconciling anyone pointing to that era of decline as being on-par with what preceded it.

But you are moving the goalposts on what I’m saying. I’m not implying there wasn’t a clear backslide. I said as much. I’m just pointing out that it’s not like we were some irrelevant has-been program in the 2015-21 era, as some posters are implying when they say the sky is falling, that we won’t be able to back to our former great heights with a new coach, and that fans won’t remember when we were an elite relevant program. We had taken a step back during that 6-year era, for sure, and were no longer a regular top 25 program. But we were still making a ton of noise, especially in March when it matters most and millions more eyes are focused on college basketball. A Final Four and two Sweet 16s in a six year period is remarkable for many programs and put us squarely in the national spotlight. I’m mystified that anyone would be “meh” about those accomplishments. It’s taken some programs years to get over that hump. For almost a decade in the 70s and 80s, we used to complain that JB couldn’t get the monkey off his back and make it to second weekend of the tourney. It took a storied program like Purdue 44 years to even make it back to a Final Four. Since 2022, we’ve been a mess and I won’t deny that. We need a Rick Pitino like splash hire to get us back to relevancy.

 

[storange]

Brent Axe is a tool.

 

[Scooch]

But you are moving the goalposts on what I’m saying. I’m not implying there wasn’t a clear backslide. I said as much. I’m just pointing out that it’s not like we were some irrelevant has-been program in the 2015-21 era, as some posters are implying when they say the sky is falling, that we won’t be able to back to our former great heights with a new coach, and that fans won’t remember when we were an elite relevant program. We had taken a step back during that 6-year era, for sure, and were no longer a regular top 25 program. But we were still making a ton of noise, especially in March when it matters most and millions more eyes are focused on college basketball. A Final Four and two Sweet 16s in a six year period is remarkable for many programs and put us squarely in the national spotlight. I’m mystified that anyone would be “meh” about those accomplishments. It’s taken some programs years to get over that hump. For almost a decade in the 70s and 80s, we used to complain that JB couldn’t get the monkey off his back and make it to second weekend of the tourney. It took a storied program like Purdue 44 years to even make it back to a Final Four. Since 2022, we’ve been a mess and I won’t deny that. We need a Rick Pitino like splash hire to get us back to relevancy.

I think people miscategorize the “eras” from 2013 to today, and that causes a lot of the disagreements.

IMHO, our second golden era (first one being 1985-1991) was from 2009-2016. Yes, 2015 wasn’t good, but the 2016 team underachieved in the regular season (largely the Hopkins 9 game portion) and clearly had final 4 talent.

Then we began to slip. 2017-2019 was when the decline clearly began. But we weren’t irrelevant. A couple tourney appearances, a S16 run, and still being ranked during the season.

2020-2023 was the bottom falling out as we descended into mediocrity. Yes, we had the S16 run in 2021. But we took some real thumpings that season and it was very clear we were nowhere near the quality of talent we had even 5 years prior.

2025 has been the bottom.

Point being, aside from one weekend in March of 2021, we really have been functionally irrelevant since the 2019 season ended. There aren’t power conference programs coveting what we’ve been over the past 5 years.

 

[RF2044]

But you are moving the goalposts on what I’m saying. I’m not implying there wasn’t a clear backslide. I said as much. I’m just pointing out that it’s not like we were some irrelevant has-been program in the 2015-21 era, as some posters are implying when they say the sky is falling, that we won’t be able to back to our former great heights with a new coach, and that fans won’t remember when we were an elite relevant program. We had taken a step back during that 6-year era, for sure, and were no longer a regular top 25 program. But we were still making a ton of noise, especially in March when it matters most and millions more eyes are focused on college basketball. A Final Four and two Sweet 16s in a six year period is remarkable for many programs and put us squarely in the national spotlight. I’m mystified that anyone would be “meh” about those accomplishments. It’s taken some programs years to get over that hump. For almost a decade in the 70s and 80s, we used to complain that JB couldn’t get the monkey off his back and make it to second weekend of the tourney. It took a storied program like Purdue 44 years to even make it back to a Final Four. Since 2022, we’ve been a mess and I won’t deny that. We need a Rick Pitino like splash hire to get us back to relevancy.

To be clear, I'm not saying we'll never be back.

And I think it is completely fair to point to 2015 -- a nice round 10 years -- as the inflection point for the decline. Not only was that the year when the NCAA announced that they were investigating us, but we also suffered through a poor season that culminated with us self-imposing a post-season ban [we wouldn't have qualified for the NCAA tournament anyway, so that self-penalization was kind of hollow].

In the 5 years leading up to 2015, we were:

• A #1 seed in the NCAA tournament twice
• Ranked #1 or #2 in 3 different seasons
• Enjoyed a 30-1 regular season
• Started a season 25-0
• Made both an Elite 8 and a Final 4

Since 2015, we've:

• Missed the postseason 6 out of 10 seasons, including three consecutive years leading up to now
• Have had double digit losses all 10 seasons, including:
  • 14 losses 4 times
  • 15 losses twice
  • 17 losses once
  • 19 losses [this year]
• Suffered our first two losing seasons in 50+ years
• Haven't qualified for the NCAA tournament 5 out of 6 years [one was COVID, but we wouldn't have made it]
• Barely qualified for the ACC tournament

2015 is also the line in the sand in terms of JB's winning percentage shifting dramatically. The first 38 years, JB won approximately 74% of his games. The last 8, that percentage dipped to ~54%. We also had a losing record in the ACC conference over that time. We haven't been ranked in the regular season since something like 2018 -- think about that for a second.

It's a lot more than "since 2022." Couching it that way is the "boiling frog" metaphor that got brought up in a recent thread. It rationalizes away that the program was losing altitude over an extended period of time. We didn't just drop off of a cliff, with the decline being a short term thing -- it has been a lengthy, steady slide into irrelevancy. We weren't irrelevant at the beginning of this stretch, but that's our station now, relative to the P4.

And therein lies the rub -- over the past 10 years, we've lost between 12-15 games every year. We haven't been ranked in 5+ years. We have a losing ACC conference record over that span. And this year, we're close to the bottom of the standings in the conference.

I get that we're Syracuse, a storied program with the seventh highest win total overall. But if this isn't irrelevancy, I don't know what is.

I agree with Scooch's post above -- the occasional highlights [which mostly all occurred within the first 5 years of the 10 year decline] helped mask the direction we were trending, and were used by many to dispute that JB had lost several MPH's off of his fastball. But several of those seasons where we had a postseason run came during years where we barely qualified for the NCAA tournament. As a program, we've struggled for a LONG time.

 

[MSOrange]

To be clear, I'm not saying we'll never be back.

And I think it is completely fair to point to 2015 -- a nice round 10 years -- as the inflection point for the decline. Not only was that the year when the NCAA announced that they were investigating us, but we also suffered through a poor season that culminated with us self-imposing a post-season ban [we wouldn't have qualified for the NCAA tournament anyway, so that self-penalization was kind of hollow].

In the 5 years leading up to 2015, we were:

• A #1 seed in the NCAA tournament twice
• Ranked #1 or #2 in 3 different seasons
• Enjoyed a 30-1 regular season
• Started a season 25-0
• Made both an Elite 8 and a Final 4

Since 2015, we've:

• Missed the postseason 6 out of 10 seasons, including three consecutive years leading up to now
• Have had double digit losses all 10 seasons, including:
  • 14 losses 4 times
  • 15 losses twice
  • 17 losses once
  • 19 losses [this year]
• Suffered our first two losing seasons in 50+ years
• Haven't qualified for the NCAA tournament 5 out of 6 years [one was COVID, but we wouldn't have made it]
• Barely qualified for the ACC tournament

2015 is also the line in the sand in terms of JB's winning percentage shifting dramatically. The first 38 years, JB won approximately 74% of his games. The last 8, that percentage dipped to ~54%. We also had a losing record in the ACC conference over that time. We haven't been ranked in the regular season since something like 2018 -- think about that for a second.

It's a lot more than "since 2022." Couching it that way is the "boiling frog" metaphor that got brought up in a recent thread. It rationalizes away that the program was losing altitude over an extended period of time. We didn't just drop off of a cliff, with the decline being a short term thing -- it has been a lengthy, steady slide into irrelevancy. We weren't irrelevant at the beginning of this stretch, but that's our station now, relative to the P4.

And therein lies the rub -- over the past 10 years, we've lost between 12-15 games every year. We haven't been ranked in 5+ years. We have a losing ACC conference record over that span. And this year, we're close to the bottom of the standings in the conference.

I get that we're Syracuse, a storied program with the seventh highest win total overall. But if this isn't irrelevancy, I don't know what is.

I agree with Scooch's post above -- the occasional highlights [which mostly all occurred within the first 5 years of the 10 year decline] helped mask the direction we were trending, and were used by many to dispute that JB had lost several MPH's off of his fastball. But several of those seasons where we had a postseason run came during years where we barely qualified for the NCAA tournament. As a program, we've struggled for a LONG time.

Excellent summary. I appreciate the effort you put into that. To sum up my thoughts, yes if you had to choose one or the other, it would be success in the NCAAs. But if you look it up, the teams who have successful runs in the tourney also had successful regular seasons the large majority of the time. And I think how you do against your peers over 30-35 games is a better judge of the overall health of your program.

 

[Scooch]

Excellent summary. I appreciate the effort you put into that. To sum up my thoughts, yes if you had to choose one or the other, it would be success in the NCAAs. But if you look it up, the teams who have successful runs in the tourney also had successful regular seasons the large majority of the time. And I think how you do against your peers over 30-35 games is a better judge of the overall health of your program.

Boeheim used to agree with you... until he didn't.

 

[Red2003]

No matter all the points made, Autry with this season has put himself in a near impossible position. The stink of these losing seasons don't just rub off for a new coach.

He does not just need to make the tourney next year, he has to continue to improve year after year until people forget. Even if we walk into the tourney no questions asked next March and pull off a win the bar is going to raise every year after that.

Judging by the comments I'm reading today you all have memories like elephants and Autry is going to have a black cloud over him for years to come.

 

[benjams77]

You are moving the goal posts.

Nobody disputes that there were flashes of success. But those highlights were offset by season performance that was a clear increment below what came before.

Also, sweet 16s -- meh. Getting to the second weekend is fun, but let's not overstate it as an accomplishment to be satisfied about. In the 80s and early 2010s, "only" making the sweet sixteen would be considered a calamity by our fanbase.

I have difficulty reconciling anyone pointing to that era of decline as being on-par with what preceded it.

Im not sure of your age or how much you watched Cuse from 1980 -2002.. We had great teams but were definitely underachievers in the tournament.. Those 22 yrs we had 30 tourney wins .. The 22 yrs from 2003-2025.. we had 30 wins in tourney .. and more deeper runs .. Now these last 4 years have been bad and a period in itself when judging hoops