Bubble Tracker - March 6 to March 8

[upperdeck]

all these teams have a bunch of clunker type games.. SUs issue is its been months were we had that game where stuff just went in. Are best shooting games are because we get in the mid range zone so much. the BC game we should have been up 30 with the shots we were getting but we clank layups and wide open 3s

 

[jdubs30]

all these teams have a bunch of clunker type games.. SUs issue is its been months were we had that game where stuff just went in. Are best shooting games are because we get in the mid range zone so much. the BC game we should have been up 30 with the shots we were getting but we clank layups and wide open 3s

We’ll have a few days off before we play Wednesday and we’ve shot better on the road, maybe it’ll help

 

[jncuse]

SDSU will get the last 1 seed if they win tomorrow, no matter what Dayton does. Aztecs have the three OOC beatdown wins against Creighton, Iowa and BYU, none at home. Dayton doesn’t have the quality wins that the Aztecs have. Both are damn good, for sure

I agree.

It's about 2/3 for SDSU and 1/3 for Dayton on the matrix, but it does seem odd to think it would be Dayton.

Dayton has the depth of wins advantage (A10 stronger than MwC), but when you are looking at #1 seeds you are looking for higher quality which is clear SD St.

 

[jncuse]

I also think UConn could be in that long shot bubble category, so them losing to Tulane tomorrow would end their at-large chanves

Sure, I will add them to the list, just we can strike them off.

 

[upperdeck]

Sd st wants the 2 seed to stay out west

 

[jncuse]

Today;s Schedule of Relevant Games
It's a long list as there are long shots, teams that are fairly safe but not locks.


12:00 : Indiana vs Q1 Wisconsin
12:00 - East Tennessee St vs Q4 VMI (Southern Tournament QuarterFinal)
12:00 - Tennessee vs Q1 Auburn
12:00 - South Carolina at Q2 Vanderbilt
2:00 - Texas Tech vs Q1 Kansas
2:00 - Rutgers at Q1 Purdue
2:00 - Purdue vs Q2 Rutgers
2:30 - Alabama at Q2 Missouri
3:15 : UCLA at Q1 USC
3:15 : USC vs Q3 UCLA
4:00 - Texas vs Q2 Oklahoma St
4:00 - Oklahoma St at Q1 Texas
4:00 - Syracuse vs Miami
4:00 - Wichita St vs Q2 Tulsa
4:00 - Tulsa at Q1 Wichita St
4:30 - Arkansas at Q2 Texas AM
5:30 - San Diego vs Utah St (MwC Championship)
6:00 - Oklahoma at Q2 TCU
6:30 : Providence vs Q3 Depaul
6:30 - Arizona St vs Q3 Washington St
6:30 - Miss St at Q2 Ole Miss
7:00 - Rhode Island at Q2 UMass
8:00 - Cincy vs Q3 Temple
8:00 - St Louis vs Q3 St Bonaventure
8:30 - Xavier vs Q1 Butler
11:00 - Stanford at Q1 Oregon

 

[jncuse]

Here is why I will likely put Dayton as my #1 seed.

You have 2 teams that have earned #1 seeds.
You have 2 teams that have earned their best case scenario - San Diego St wants the 2 West, Dayton wants the one. They basically make the choice for the committee.

 

[jncuse]

So if neither Michigan State nor Maryland make the B1GT final, does the B1G have 10 teams with zero Top 3 seeds? That would be amazing.

They will dominate the 4,5,6 line.

 

[jncuse]

While I have teams like Providence and Indiana on the list, them losing will do nothing to help a long shot team. They would be more vulnerable if almost everybody right near the line does well / bracket busters.

 

[djorange1989]

Sd st wants the 2 seed to stay out west

yep that’s the quandary. They certainly want to win and have the prestige of the number 1 seed but playing the second weekend at Staples Center vs MSG is quite an advantage

 

[djorange1989]

JN do you think that Gonzaga would get shipped East and SDSU would stay out West if the Aztecs win today and the Zags don’t win their conference tourney? They are usually a slam dunk to win but with BYU in there it isn’t as certain. Would be an interesting decision for the committee

 

[HRE Otto IV]

They will dominate the 4,5,6 line.

They will be a PIA to seed. You would like in theory to only put 4 B1G teams on the 4/5 line. But the committee might be forced to put 5 or more teams there.

I think they will get a 3, two 4s, two 5s, and two 6s.

Still crazy that a conference can get 10 schools in yet have zero Top 10 teams.

 

[upperdeck]

gonna be tough to make them all play at home since they all struggle on the road.

 

[jncuse]

JN do you think that Gonzaga would get shipped East and SDSU would stay out West if the Aztecs win today and the Zags don’t win their conference tourney? They are usually a slam dunk to win but with BYU in there it isn’t as certain. Would be an interesting decision for the committee

Good question. Let me look at it.

 

[jncuse]

First set of games today

Tennessee loses to Auburn - OUT
Indiana loses to Wisconsin - Probably fine even with a loss in their first game next week but probably do not want to test the committee.
South Carolina losing by 10 to Vanderbilt - OUT


East Tennessee St wins it quarterfinal which is a good thing, as you want them to win their conference tourney..

 

[jncuse]

Every dog has its day

Rutgers wins at Purdue and will be a part of the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

 

[jncuse]

UPDATE -
Bubble teams are 1-6 so far today. (and that is because somebody had to win between Purdue and Rutgers). Most of these games were on the far limits of the bubble however -- long shots like Alabama, or teams that are fairly safe like Indiana.


12:00 : Indiana vs Q1 Wisconsin (LOSS)
12:00 - East Tennessee St vs Q4 VMI (Southern Tournament QuarterFinal) (WIN - good thing)
12:00 - Tennessee vs Q1 Auburn LOSS
12:00 - South Carolina at Q2 Vanderbilt :LOSS
2:00 - Texas Tech vs Q1 Kansas LOSS
2:00 - Rutgers at Q1 Purdue WIN
2:00 - Purdue vs Q2 Rutgers LOSS
2:30 - Alabama at Q2 Missouri LOSS
3:15 : UCLA at Q1 USC
3:15 : USC vs Q3 UCLA
4:00 - Texas vs Q2 Oklahoma St
4:00 - Oklahoma St at Q1 Texas
4:00 - Syracuse vs Miami
4:00 - Wichita St vs Q2 Tulsa
4:00 - Tulsa at Q1 Wichita St
4:30 - Arkansas at Q2 Texas AM
5:30 - San Diego vs Utah St (MwC Championship)
6:00 - Oklahoma at Q2 TCU
6:30 : Providence vs Q3 Depaul
6:30 - Arizona St vs Q3 Washington St
6:30 - Miss St at Q2 Ole Miss
7:00 - Rhode Island at Q2 UMass
8:00 - Cincy vs Q3 Temple
8:00 - St Louis vs Q3 St Bonaventure
8:30 - Xavier vs Q1 Butler
11:00 - Stanford at Q1 Oregon

 

[jncuse]

Superstar charge call with 45 seconds left in the UCLA-USC game.

That is the ref trying to be the star of the show. I hate refs like that.

 

[jncuse]

UPDATE -
Bubble teams are 3-8 so far today. (and that is because somebody had to win in 3 games,). Most of these games were on the far limits of the bubble however -- long shots like Alabama, or teams that are fairly safe like Indiana.


12:00 : Indiana vs Q1 Wisconsin (LOSS)
12:00 - East Tennessee St vs Q4 VMI (Southern Tournament QuarterFinal) (WIN - good thing)
12:00 - Tennessee vs Q1 Auburn LOSS
12:00 - South Carolina at Q2 Vanderbilt :LOSS
2:00 - Texas Tech vs Q1 Kansas LOSS
2:00 - Rutgers at Q1 Purdue WIN (Preferred Team to Win - knocks out Purdue)
2:00 - Purdue vs Q2 Rutgers LOSS
2:30 - Alabama at Q2 Missouri LOSS
3:15 : UCLA at Q1 USC LOSS
3:15 : USC vs Q3 UCLA WIN (Preferred Team to Win as UCLA is right on the bubble line and USC was fairly safe)
4:00 - Texas vs Q2 Oklahoma St LOSS
4:00 - Oklahoma St at Q1 Texas WIN (Preferred Team to win as Texas is right on the bubble line and OKie St is long shot)
4:00 - Syracuse vs Q2 Miami
4:30 - Arkansas at Q2 Texas AM
5:30 - San Diego vs Utah St (MwC Championship)
6:00 - Oklahoma at Q2 TCU
6:30 : Providence vs Q3 Depaul
6:30 - Arizona St vs Q3 Washington St
6:30 - Miss St at Q2 Ole Miss
7:00 - Rhode Island at Q2 UMass
8:00 - Cincy vs Q3 Temple
8:00 - St Louis vs Q3 St Bonaventure
8:30 - Xavier vs Q1 Butler
11:00 - Stanford at Q1 Oregon[/QUOTE]

 

[jncuse]

UPDATE -
Bubble Markets Crashing -- Bubble teams are 3-10 so far today, not including 0-2 in games at halftime or past halftime (and that is because somebody had to win in 3 games between bubble teams. Even the 3 games that had to have a winner were most favourable results for a long shot... sorry if it feels like I am stabbing some of you. We still would have had to make at least the ACC Semi's.


12:00 : Indiana vs Q1 Wisconsin LOSS
12:00 - Tennessee vs Q1 Auburn LOSS
12:00 - South Carolina at Q2 Vanderbilt :LOSS
2:00 - Texas Tech vs Q1 Kansas LOSS
2:00 - Rutgers at Q1 Purdue WIN (Preferred Team to Win - knocks out Purdue)
2:00 - Purdue vs Q2 Rutgers LOSS
2:30 - Alabama at Q2 Missouri LOSS
3:15 : UCLA at Q1 USC LOSS
3:15 : USC vs Q3 UCLA WIN (Preferred Team to Win as UCLA is right on the bubble line and USC was fairly safe)
4:00 - Texas vs Q2 Oklahoma St LOSS
4:00 - Oklahoma St at Q1 Texas WIN (Preferred Team to win as Texas is right on the bubble line and OKie St is long shot)
4:00 - Syracuse vs Q2 Miami LOSS
4:30 - Arkansas at Q2 Texas AM LOSS
5:30 - Utah St vs San Diego St (MwC Championship) LOSING BY 3 in 2nd Half
6:00 - Oklahoma at Q2 TCU LOSING BY 18
6:30 : Providence vs Q3 Depaul
6:30 - Arizona St vs Q3 Washington St
6:30 - Miss St at Q2 Ole Miss
7:00 - Rhode Island at Q2 UMass
8:00 - Cincy vs Q3 Temple
8:00 - St Louis vs Q3 St Bonaventure
8:30 - Xavier vs Q1 Butler
11:00 - Stanford at Q1 Oregon

Situation is ripe for one of the long shot teams to make a move.in conference tournaments -- so far that would only be Oklahoma St, as the long shots are 1-4 today.

 

[jncuse]

The team that has benefited the most so far this week is Richomd... and that is with a mere Q2 win. But with Texas, UCLA, Purdue, Arkansas already losing (and Utah St losing) they will probably move in "as of now" after today.

 

[jncuse]

With respect to Northern Iowa, 10 of 64 brackets had them in after yesterday.

That might actually move up after today.

 

[jncuse]

Bracketology Bubble Watch: UCLA, Indiana, Purdue and Texas need to pick up victories Saturday

Jerry Palm breaks down the 13 bubble teams in action on Saturday

www.cbssports.com

An interesting title to Palm's article earlier today... "UCLA, Texas, Indiana and Purdue need to win today"... they all lost. Although I think with all the bad going on around them Indiana is fine.

 

[jncuse]

The Aggies coach is certainly excited.

Utah St may or may not have have got in as an at-large. They were right on the line,. But this clinches it.

The bubble turned it around in the past hour.

 

[jncuse]

8:45 UPDATE -
Bubble teams are 9-10 so far today, including 6-0 in the last 6 games. Things were chaotic to start the day, but the bubble teams are now winning... although they are mostly fairly safe in and the long shots. A few notable games in the past few hours
- Utah St may have stole a bid by winning the MWC title. They have got the at-large either way... it would have been close.
- Oklahoma and Arizona St were down double digits, but won and are both almost locks at this point.
- However UCLA, Texas, Purdue and Arkansas losing will shake things up a bit after today.


12:00 : Indiana vs Q1 Wisconsin LOSS
12:00 - Tennessee vs Q1 Auburn LOSS
12:00 - South Carolina at Q2 Vanderbilt :LOSS
2:00 - Texas Tech vs Q1 Kansas LOSS
2:00 - Rutgers at Q1 Purdue WIN (Preferred Team to Win - knocks out Purdue)
2:00 - Purdue vs Q2 Rutgers LOSS
2:30 - Alabama at Q2 Missouri LOSS
3:15 : UCLA at Q1 USC LOSS
3:15 : USC vs Q3 UCLA WIN (Preferred Team to Win as UCLA is right on the bubble line and USC was fairly safe)
4:00 - Texas vs Q2 Oklahoma St LOSS
4:00 - Oklahoma St at Q1 Texas WIN (Preferred Team to win as Texas is right on the bubble line and OKie St is long shot)
4:00 - Syracuse vs Q2 Miami LOSS
4:30 - Arkansas at Q2 Texas AM LOSS
5:30 - Utah St vs San Diego St WIN - Get Auto Bid
6:00 - Oklahoma at Q2 TCU WIN (Were behind by about 20)
6:30 : Providence vs Q3 Depaul WIN
6:30 - Arizona St vs Q3 Washington St WIN
6:30 - Miss St at Q2 Ole Miss WIN
7:00 - Rhode Island at Q2 UMass Winning by 10
8:00 - Cincy vs Q3 Temple Losing by 4
8:00 - St Louis vs Q3 St Bonaventure Winning by 19
8:30 - Xavier vs Q1 Butler
11:00 - Stanford at Q1 Oregon