Bubble Tracker - March 6 to March 8

[jncuse]

I think right now I would have

Last 4 In
Stanford
Texas
UCLA
Richmond

Last 4 Out
Wichita St
NC St
Cincy
Northern Iowa

The Last 4 out is starting to get thin after today. I considered Miss St as well for a spot.

 

[jncuse]

Cincy is down 14 at home vs Temple. It would be a crushing Q3 loss.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Cincy is down 14 at home vs Temple. It would be a crushing Q3 loss.

Uconn is going to win the AAC. That conference has no dominant teams at all.

 

[bpo57]

According to most experts, Indiana seems likely to get an at large bid to the tournament. Just my own personal view, that annoys me. Below .500 in their conference (same with Purdue), lost 8 of their last 12 and have looked like hot garbage doing it. Over and over they've had chances to bolster their case and have come up empty. I'd much rather see a more deserving mid-major get a shot. JMO

 

[jncuse]

Uconn is going to win the AAC. That conference has no dominant teams at all.

You take that back!!!!!!

 

[djorange1989]

According to most experts, Indiana seems likely to get an at large bid to the tournament. Just my own personal view, that annoys me. Below .500 in their conference (same with Purdue), lost 8 of their last 12 and have looked like hot garbage doing it. Over and over they've had chances to bolster their case and have come up empty. I'd much rather see a more deserving mid-major get a shot. JMO

and they are all Bob Knight lovers there, that should result in a lifetime tourney ban

 

[jncuse]

Cincy is down 14 at home vs Temple. It would be a crushing Q3 loss.

And CIncy ultimately came back. Just noticed this now.

 

[jncuse]

FINAL UPDATE FOR SATURDAY-
Bubble teams were 11-12 Saturday. Things were chaotic to start the day (starting 3-10), but it reversed aftert day.. although they are mostly fairly safe in and the long shots.
UCLA, Texas, Purdue and Arkansas losing will shake things up a bit after today.


12:00 : Indiana vs Q1 Wisconsin LOSS
12:00 - Tennessee vs Q1 Auburn LOSS
12:00 - South Carolina at Q2 Vanderbilt :LOSS
2:00 - Texas Tech vs Q1 Kansas LOSS
2:00 - Rutgers at Q1 Purdue WIN (Preferred Team to Win - knocks out Purdue)
2:00 - Purdue vs Q2 Rutgers LOSS
2:30 - Alabama at Q2 Missouri LOSS
3:15 : UCLA at Q1 USC LOSS
3:15 : USC vs Q3 UCLA WIN (Preferred Team to Win as UCLA is right on the bubble line and USC was fairly safe)
4:00 - Texas vs Q2 Oklahoma St LOSS
4:00 - Oklahoma St at Q1 Texas WIN (Preferred Team to win as Texas is right on the bubble line and OKie St is long shot)
4:00 - Syracuse vs Q2 Miami LOSS
4:30 - Arkansas at Q2 Texas AM LOSS
5:30 - Utah St vs San Diego St WIN - Get Auto Bid
6:00 - Oklahoma at Q2 TCU WIN (Were behind by about 20)
6:30 : Providence vs Q3 Depaul WIN
6:30 - Arizona St vs Q3 Washington St WIN
6:30 - Miss St at Q2 Ole Miss WIN
7:00 - Rhode Island at Q2 UMass WIN
8:00 - Cincy vs Q3 Temple WIN (were down by 14)
8:00 - St Louis vs Q3 St Bonaventure WIN
8:30 - Xavier vs Q1 Butler LOSS
11:00 - Stanford at Q1 Oregon LOSS

 

[jncuse]

According to most experts, Indiana seems likely to get an at large bid to the tournament. Just my own personal view, that annoys me. Below .500 in their conference (same with Purdue), lost 8 of their last 12 and have looked like hot garbage doing it. Over and over they've had chances to bolster their case and have come up empty. I'd much rather see a more deserving mid-major get a shot. JMO

While I don't agree that that struggles down the stretch should matter (if I am comparing p5 to p5 school), I woud be perfectly content if a P5 team that has not done well is overlooked for Northern Iowa or other mid-majors. But that is not how they work, and they will not ackowledge that their metrics are biased..

 

[bpo57]

While I don't agree that that struggles down the stretch should matter (if I am comparing p5 to p5 school), I woud be perfectly content if a P5 team that has not done well is overlooked for Northern Iowa or other mid-majors. But that is not how they work, and they will not ackowledge that their metrics are biased..

Yeah my post was more about how the system works. Very biased toward the P5 schools. Of course I'm not breaking new ground, been going on that way for many years. Money and power talks.

 

[bpo57]

While I don't agree that that struggles down the stretch should matter (if I am comparing p5 to p5 school), I woud be perfectly content if a P5 team that has not done well is overlooked for Northern Iowa or other mid-majors. But that is not how they work, and they will not ackowledge that their metrics are biased..

One way where struggles down the stretch matters is in seeding as opposed to selection. Let's say you have Team A and Team B who are both considered to have equal resumes in totality. Team A had an incredible OOC start but has been taking on water for nearly all of February into March. They're not a good team right now. Meanwhile Team B had some bad losses in Nov/Dec but has been very hot during the last 4-5 weeks. They're both considered 10 seeds. If you're the 7 seed that draws Team A in that first round you're thankful for the early Christmas present. Meanwhile Team B is probably favored in their 7/10 game.

 

[jncuse]

I have updated the matrix standings based on today's brackets only/

- Teams like Indiana and Xavier held their % in after losing, but certainly are getting closer to the line (average seeds fell over 1/2 seed line). They probably will get in, but losing the first game of their tournaments will not make them sleep well.

- Teams that moved in yesterday were Utah St (last out before auto bid) and Richmond
- Texas and UCLA fell out after losses. Texas took the worst hit after a home loss to Okie State (84% to 38%)

- Purdue's loss really stung them -- they move from 23% to 3%.

- Northern Iowa is not viewed as a serious at-large candidate by most (only 5% in)

- In terms of teams on the outside it has thinned out. That being said Texas and UCLA are very close and are considered in by many.

- NC St. may only need a couple wins. After that it's hard to find many teams that can get in by say making ther conference semi's.

 

[Alsacs]

JNCuse you think Florida State could be a 1 seed if they win the ACCT.
I think Kansas, Gonzaga are locks for 1 seeds.
Baylor, Dayton control their destiny.
San Diego State locked into the 2 line.

I think Florida State if Baylor loses before playing Kansas and if Dayton doesn’t win the A-10 could slide in.