Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive) | Page 17 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive)

721Comstock said:
It was Colorado STATE.

John Gillon's old coach was a master at gaming the RPI, but that one year the NCAA said NO SOUP FOR YOU, because they really had a sparse resume when you looked more closely at it.

RPI-wise, beating a meh team on the road, is equivalent to beating a Top Ten team at home.
Which goes to show how moronic that metric is. Oh Lord

So Co St went out and beat some soupcans on the road. The all-important Road Wins box was checked.
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Greenberg tried that one year at VT. Didn't work for him either
 
Ish88888 said:
Good point, but their 15 losses and more easily explained than our 14. They played 5 tourney teams in the OOC. we played 2. Yes, our conference was much better, but 2 road wins are pathetic. Its all crazy, lunardi right now is throwing water on all the duke #1 seed talk if they win the ACC tourney. He is right, they finished 5th in the SEC over 4 months, and just bc they are hot for 4 days, are we gonna give them a 1 seed? Its all nuts.
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They also played Iowa State.
 
SoBeCuse said:
What about this Akron/Kent St. game? Akron is the 1 seed in the MAC and is losing at H. If Kent St gets the AB does Akron get an at large? Akron RPI is 53 and KenPom 97.
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They are 0-2 vs top 100. But then again most bubble teams would be 0-2 if they played at Creighton and Gonzaga.

The only way I could see them possibly getting the benefit of the doubt if there power rankings (KP, BPI, SAG) were in the top 40 or so, and that is purely speculation on my part as a new tool to try to equalize apples and oranges. As you posted above 97 is not close at all to that.
 
upload_2017-3-11_21-24-22.png


Going well.
 
jncuse said:
View attachment 91510

Going well.
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should be going better in that game - Marshall was colder than ice for the first 13 or so minutes and MT didn't really do much with it...
I hadn't watched MTSU this year before tonight - they have some nice players but they play pretty dumb and are a terrible FT shooting team
 
Sorry if already posted but our new friend Lunardi now has USC as his first out, RI in and SU still in. Let's hope he is right
 
but it's also a bit crazy, considering their collected talent (yeah I know injuries yada yada) that they lost as many games they have
 
pearl31 said:
but it's also a bit crazy, considering their collected talent (yeah I know injuries yada yada) that they lost as many games they have
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No doubt. There was definitely a stretch of bad Allen, bad Jackson, and of course times with no Jefferson/Giles. I guess this is what you get when they all click and are all healthy or close to it. Dangerous.
 
pearl31 said:
should be going better in that game - Marshall was colder than ice for the first 13 or so minutes and MT didn't really do much with it...
I hadn't watched MTSU this year before tonight - they have some nice players but they play pretty dumb and are a terrible FT shooting team
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This game hasn't been that close. Marshall hit their last 8 or 9 shots to make it closer. MTSU is better but who knows what will happen.
 
Time to discuss Illinois St again as 26% on the matrix think they good. Is there any reasonable the committee sees it.

Illinois St
26-6. RPI #31
1-2 vs top 50 (1-2 vs Wichita St (say a 7 seed), won at home)
1-2 vs 51-100 (Home vs #86 New Mexico, Lost at TCU, Lost vs San Francisco (Neutral) )
Bad Losses - At #232 Murray St, At Tulsa #130)
Power Ranking Avg (KP/BPI/Sag) = #56


One could argue that these types of teams don't get the opportunities of P5 teams. I agree, I like to give these type of schools the benefit of the doubt which you can see from my posts in prior years or even this year (Nevada / Mid Tenn St)

1. I have no issue with a team with an empty OOC resume because some times it's hard for these schools to line up teams. But it's not a case of a good but empty OOC resume with Illinois St. It was just a bad OOC - they lost to Murray St, Tulsa, TCU, and vs San Francisco. They only beat New Mexico. I want to give them the benefit of the doubt but I just can't.

2. There is one other factor I cite.to compare apples and oranges. (P5 vs real mid major). And that is the power rankings which consider the fact that some schools can't control the schedule. If it's top 40-50, you can possibly get the benefit of the doubt. (But note that St. Mary's and Valpo did not last year) But it was #56. Once again I want to give them the benefit of the doubt in a weak bubble but I have no basis to do so.

It's not even close. A team like Nevada for example had a much better resume than Illinois St.

Verdict - 95% chance of NIT
 
jncuse said:
Time to discuss Illinois St again as 26% on the matrix think they good. Is there any reasonable the committee sees it.

Illinois St
26-6. RPI #31
1-2 vs top 50 (1-2 vs Wichita St (say a 7 seed), won at home)
1-2 vs 51-100 (Home vs #86 New Mexico, Lost at TCU, Lost vs San Francisco (Neutral) )
Bad Losses - At #232 Murray St, At Tulsa #130)
Power Ranking Avg (KP/BPI/Sag) = #56


One could argue that these types of teams don't get the opportunities of P5 teams. I agree, I like to give these type of schools the benefit of the doubt which you can see from my posts in prior years or even this year (Nevada / Mid Tenn St)

1. I have no issue with a team with an empty OOC resume because some times it's hard for these schools to line up teams. But it's not a case of a good but empty OOC resume. It was a bad OOC - they lost to Murray St, Tulsa, TCU, and they lost vs San Francisco. They only beat New Mexico. I want to give them the benefit of the doubt but I just can't.

2. There is one other factor I cite.to compare apples and oranges. (P5 vs real mid major). And that is the power rankings which consider the fact that some schools can't control the schedule. If it's top 50, you can get the benefit of the doubt (maybe). But it wsa #56.

They have one quality win at home. But there are two tests to given them benefit of the doubt, And they fail them both very easily. It's not even close. A team like Nevada for example had a much better resume than Illinois St.


Verdict - 90% chance of NIT
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These teams are better off playing atleast one guarantee game just to show the committee they tried. Illinois State didn't challenge themselves so they shouldn't get the benefit of the doubt.
 
jncuse said:
Time to discuss Illinois St again as 26% on the matrix think they good. Is there any reasonable the committee sees it.

Illinois St
26-6. RPI #31
1-2 vs top 50 (1-2 vs Wichita St (say a 7 seed), won at home)
1-2 vs 51-100 (Home vs #86 New Mexico, Lost at TCU, Lost vs San Francisco (Neutral) )
Bad Losses - At #232 Murray St, At Tulsa #130)
Power Ranking Avg (KP/BPI/Sag) = #56


One could argue that these types of teams don't get the opportunities of P5 teams. I agree, I like to give these type of schools the benefit of the doubt which you can see from my posts in prior years or even this year (Nevada / Mid Tenn St)

1. I have no issue with a team with an empty OOC resume because some times it's hard for these schools to line up teams. But it's not a case of a good but empty OOC resume. It was a bad OOC - they lost to Murray St, Tulsa, TCU, and they lost vs San Francisco. They only beat New Mexico. I want to give them the benefit of the doubt but I just can't.

2. There is one other factor I cite.to compare apples and oranges. (P5 vs real mid major). And that is the power rankings which consider the fact that some schools can't control the schedule. If it's top 50, you can get the benefit of the doubt (maybe). But it wsa #56.

They have one quality win at home. But there are two tests to given them benefit of the doubt, And they fail them both very easily. It's not even close. A team like Nevada for example had a much better resume than Illinois St.


Verdict - 90% chance of NIT
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Good post jn. Monmouth not getting an at-large last year killed any hope for fringe low major bubble teams for the foreseeable future. Illinois State has no shot.

I'm in the camp that I believe we missed our chance and if we don't get in I won't be upset, it was our own fault.

But Illinois State doesn't deserve a bid. I'd be less upset if CAL got a bid.
 
Is MTSU getting in with a loss? They are quickly getting in trouble here.
 

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