Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive)

[orangenirvana]

Can someone explain to me why Vanderbilt is a lock? In looking they have beaten Florida three times but those would be their best wins.

They have an average computer ranking of 35.75 and are 6-7 vs. the Top 50, including four wins against the Top 25. Not only are they a lock, but they could move into being a 6 or 7 seed in the Tourney if they win the SEC Tourney.

 

[longislandcuse]

Is there something wrong with beating a top 5 team 3 times? lol

No way is Florida a top 5 team. I'd be surprised if they make it out of the first weekend.

I'm def rolling with an upset of them in either their first or second game.

 

[jdubs30]

View attachment 91492

Not preferred, but even if they win the A-10. In a way this reduces the 4 bids fro the A-10 possibility that would have been a disaster.

It's Syracuse against Kansas St / USC / Wake / Providence / VCU. All we need is the committee to think we are better than one. (Assuming no other busters).

I kinda think KState is ahead of us no matter what.

A question I have - is how can you put in PC and keep us out? Our resumes are eerily similar except they have the win @Creighton.

We're both 6-8 vs. the top 50. We have 3 top 18 wins - but they have the @Creighton win.
We're both 2-1 vs. 50 - 100.
We both lost to St. John's and @BC.
They lost to DePaul. We lost to UConn and GTown. (DePaul is RPI 236, worse than BC)
Their best OOC win is #40 URI - ours is #47 Monmouh
Their SOS and RPI are better - but not by a jarring amount.

I think if PC gets in, it's hard to keep us out

 

[djorange1989]

USC's W/L record is major window dressing. 21 of their 24 wins are vs. teams with RPI of 93 or worse. But they have 2 top 100 road wins and wins vs. #15 and #17. They also have OOC wins vs. SMU, BYU and @Texas A&M.

Don't let 24 wins fool you - they are close to the cut line.

Oh I agree, it doesn't fool me but I do think the committee will have them ahead of us. I truly believe right now the last slot is between us and RI. If Davidson comes back and there are no bid stealers I think we get in. No clue what will happen if RI wins today and loses to VCU tomorrow. What do you think in that scenario jdubs?

 

[jdubs30]

No way is Florida a top 5 team. I'd be surprised if they make it out of the first weekend.

I meant RPI, and actually they are #10, not 5, my bad. But I agree I don't think they're very good

 

[jdubs30]

Oh I agree, it doesn't fool me but I do think the committee will have them ahead of us. I truly believe right now the last slot is between us and RI. If Davidson comes back and there are no bid stealers I think we get in. No clue what will happen if RI wins today and loses to VCU tomorrow. What do you think in that scenario jdubs?

If URI wins today they're in. I believe VCU is in.

I think the last 4 is a lot more fluid than Cuse vs. URI. I don't think it's definite that Wake is ahead of us.

 

[CorduroyG]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the committee has us as a lock right now and we'll be a 10 seed. And I wouldn't be surprised if they have us out regardless of what happens in these games. We could be sweating these games out for no reason. But then again maybe our bid is riding on 1 of these games. Who the hell knows.

I think it's a 50/50 shot regardless of what happens. I think the committee knows who's in or out right now, only change will be bid stealers winning conference tourney, like Alabama. I don't think they put a lot of weight on conference tournaments.

 

[jdubs30]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the committee has us as a lock right now and we'll be a 10 seed. And I wouldn't be surprised if they have us out regardless of what happens in these games. We could be sweating these games out for no reason. But then again maybe our bid is riding on 1 of these games. Who the hell knows.

I think it's a 50/50 shot regardless of what happens. I think the committee knows who's in or out right now, only change will be bid stealers winning conference tourney, like Alabama. I don't think they put a lot of weight on conference tournaments.

Yeah I agree. I think all the at-larges are committed - they've probably already evaluated Alabama and what they'd do in case they win today as well.

Hard to believe they don't have the 68 right now barring a bid steal, like you said. Not many bubble teams playing anymore.

 

[orangenirvana]

I think the Big Ten will surprise in the NCAA's this year. No great teams but many good ones. It pains me to say but I call it like I see it.

 

[jdubs30]

UK looks like they're about to blow it open

 

[NineOneSeven]

I meant RPI, and actually they are #10, not 5, my bad. But I agree I don't think they're very good

I do

 

[djorange1989]

If URI wins today they're in. I believe VCU is in.

I think the last 4 is a lot more fluid than Cuse vs. URI. I don't think it's definite that Wake is ahead of us.

I don't think should be ahead of us, I hope you are right. Just a bad feeling on my part that Wake will be slotted ahead of us.

 

[orangenirvana]

Rhode Island is the rill dill

 

[NineOneSeven]

We get it. You're beyond pissed that we lost to Miami on Wednesday and blew a chance to help our own cause. But for the love of god, shut up about it.

Not beyond pissed at all actually. And not as pissed as some will be if URI gets in and we don't.

 

[CorduroyG]

I think wake is ahead of us, Id be very surprised if they don't get in.

 

[Briancuse]

If URI wins today they're in. I believe VCU is in.

I think the last 4 is a lot more fluid than Cuse vs. URI. I don't think it's definite that Wake is ahead of us.

Why? because they beat a bad Davidson team.

 

[djorange1989]

I think the Big Ten will surprise in the NCAA's this year. No great teams but many good ones. It pains me to say but I call it like I see it.

I respectfully disagree. I think Pitino Jr's team has the best chance to do anything but I think most will be out pretty early

 

[Briancuse]

I think wake is ahead of us, Id be very surprised if they don't get in.

I don't see how you can put Wake ahead of us, our resume is better.

 

[jncuse]

Uodated Bracket Matrix (65 Brackets from Today)

All teams below 100%
Marquette 98%
Vanderbilt 98%
Wake Forest 98%
Providence 95%
USC 92%
Kansas St 86%
Rhode Island 69%
---- IN/OUT-----
Illinois St 26%
Syracuse 25%
Georgia 5%
Illinois 4$
TCU 2%
Clemson 2%
Cal 0%

I think many people are overreacting to 2 decent at best wins by URI. Once they (if they) lose the %'s will equalize.

As for us falling behind Illinois St. Could be
a) the sample
b) People are pulling from Syracuse to give to URI.
c) 26% of the matrix is drunken idiots.

 

[raf4488]

Why? because they beat a bad Davidson team.

They had to come from behind to beat Davidson in OT at home just a week ago

 

[Cuse House]

A lot of people are calling for Duke to be a #1 seed if they beat Notre Dame today. That arguably gives us the best win out of any bubble team.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I don't see how you can put Wake ahead of us, our resume is better.

Hasnt this been explained like 40 times

 

[Briancuse]

They had to come from behind to beat Davidson in OT at home just a week ago

That;s great, Davidson isn't good.

 

[Briancuse]

Hasnt this been explained like 40 times

I don't believe it has, we have 6 top 50 wins, they have 3, we beat them, we finished ahead of them in the Acc.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I don't believe it has, we have 6 top 50 wins, they have 3, we beat them, we finished ahead of them in the Acc.

You've selected the criteria that fits syracuse over wake forest. There is other criteria that is included... And it's been explained often.