Bubble Watch - Friday Conf Tourney (It's not over) | Page 10 | Syracusefan.com
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Bubble Watch - Friday Conf Tourney (It's not over)

jdubs30 said:
I think it's more of a consequential relation. Correlation does not imply causation.

Palm looks historically and sees no team with an as bad as us has ever made it in. Bad RPI usually means you aren't winning on the road and have some bad losses. So a bad RPI does come from negative "resume factors". The RPI is being thrown out, but we have a bad RPI for a reason, and those reasons are what Palm is using to keep us out. He is including our RPI as another reason as to why we shouldn't be in - but because of our road woes and bad losses, we have a bad RPI.

It is not the bad RPI itself - it's what created the bad RPI.
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Does he acknowledge that teams with those negatives rarely, if ever, have the wins we have?

Again, I'm 50/50 on us getting in but his rationale seems crazy flawed as he focuses on one set of negatives without acknowledging that there is also an unprecedented flip side.
 
longislandcuse said:
Does he acknowledge that teams with those negatives rarely, if ever, have the wins we have?

Again, I'm 50/50 on us getting in but his rationale seems crazy flawed as he focuses on one set of negatives without acknowledging that there is also an unprecedented flip side.
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I haven't heard him talk about us too deeply other than saying we have no chance.

I'm with you though - 6 top 50 wins and 3 top 20 wins isn't being talked about enough.
 
longislandcuse said:
Does he acknowledge that teams with those negatives rarely, if ever, have the wins we have?

Again, I'm 50/50 on us getting in but his rationale seems crazy flawed as he focuses on one set of negatives without acknowledging that there is also an unprecedented flip side.
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I believe he said that there have been 6 teams with 6 top 50 wins who have missed the tournament in the past. I don't remember any of those teams and what was the quality of those wins. I don't know if they were in the 64 or 65 team era which amkes them null and void as well. But our "6 wins" are very good but not histroic when you break them down
- 2 wins against pod seeds
- all at hom
- only 5 against actual tourney teams.

Don't want to make it sound like I support his back. It still comes down to team vs team analysis at the end, and we are nowhere near where he has us,
 
jncuse said:
I believe he said that there have been 6 teams with 6 top 50 wins who have missed the tournament in the past. I don't remember any of those teams and what was the quality of those wins. I don't know if they were in the 64 or 65 team era which amkes them null and void as well. But our "6 wins" are very good but not histroic when you break them down
- 2 wins against pod seeds
- all at hom
- only 5 against actual tourney teams.

Don't want to make it sound like I support his back. It still comes down to team vs team analysis at the end, and we are nowhere near where he has us,
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Colorado had 6 top 50 wins recently and missed the tourney, But they had they 331st OOC SOS
 
"Who did you play, who did you beat"

That's our ticket. No other bubble teams can match us there. I know bilas always says that. Hopefully that's how the committee is gonna decide the last few spots.
 
In the last 8 years only 1 team with 6 top 50 wins has been left out. Wasn't sure of the team but I guess it's Colorado.
 
CorduroyG said:
"Who did you play, who did you beat"

That's our ticket. No other bubble teams can match us there. I know bilas always says that. Hopefully that's how the committee is gonna decide the last few spots.
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I'm with you. But when you're a bubble team you want to avoid as many "why should we keep you out" discussions as possible. Unfortunately we have most things working against us with 1 really positive attribute
 
jncuse said:
I will have to disagree. A 2-3 record against the top 50 is OK . just lacks quantity. A 9-4 record vs top 100 is very good, especially for a commitee which is looking to find non P5 teams to justify letting in. I don't think they are on the bubble. I their is also optics of a "22" RPI . still some old school guys. If you are 22, they won't let you in because of that alone, but if you have other good on resume you should get the pass.
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I don't see the committee "looking to find non P5 teams to justify letting in." I give them a little more credit than that (maybe I shouldn't). I think they're truly trying to find the best at-large teams.

9-4 record (actually, it's 10-5) against Top 100 is good, yes. But this is where the use of the RPI is flawed because it favors the mid-major programs. And when you have a team like VCU that plays more mid-major programs than a program like Syracuse, you're going to load up on more of those wins.

And look at where 70% of VCU's Top 100 wins have come from...

#75 Asheville (#116 Sagarin)
#82 Richmond (#93 Sagarin)
#82 Richmond
#85 Saint Bonaventure (#87 Sagarin)
#94 George Washington (#111 Sagarin)
#94 George Washington
#98 Davidson (#84 Sagarin)

Is that impressive?

I can understand the argument for VCU to get a bid. Really, I can. But to call them a lock? While teams like Syracuse, Providence, Indiana, Kansas State, and Vanderbilt are on the bubble? There's something wrong with that imo.
 
bpo57 said:
Cal beating ORE may be kind of a big deal. Very unlikely though.
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I guess a team moving from one quality win to two quality wins would be a big deal if they were going for the NIT. It would also raise them to 6-11 vs the top 100. which is also nice to try to sell yourself to the NIT

The committee should be able to see through this painfully bad resume, But don't want to chance it either.
 

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