Bubble Watch - Friday Conf Tourney (It's not over)

[jncuse]

As I apparently fell asleep in my recliner last night posting I hate Baylor meme's, I never had a chance to sit back and re-assess.

I don't have new matrix standings (will be available around noon), but what can assess they will look like something like this).

Putting those who are not 100% -- first few are loccks.

(87 Brackets)
Xavier 86
Marquette 85
Wake Forest 85
USC 83
Vanderbilt 81
Providence 80
Kansas St 78
Rhode Island 40
-----IN/OUT-------
Syracuse 35
Illinois St 25
Cal 6
Georgia 4
Houston 3
Illinois 3
TCU 1
Iowa 1
Indiana 0







So at the absolute worst we are the last team in / first team out as of now. Even if end up the first team out on the matrix,. we still have decent chance. All it takes is the committee to think we are better than one of the teams above us at this point (which includes Rhode Island)

We are "tied" with Rhode Island - so until they beat Dayton or VCU, they are not passing us.

No more At-Large Teams Moving Past Us Today (Bold to Lose)
1:00 Georgia vs Kentucky
6:30 Indiana vs Wisconsin
7:00 TCU vs Iowa St
9:00 Cal vs Oregon

No guarantee that any of teams pass us with a win especially Indiana. We can get a 3-0 split in the other games. The other team in this race is Houston. Today's game against UConn is not the one that will put it over the top. It's still reasonably possible that none of these teams pass us.

As for the bubble busters
Middle Tennessee St must keep on winning
Cincy/SMU must win AAC
Dayton/VCU must win A-10
It would be nice if Nevada wins the MWC
It's still reasonably possible that the top 3 take care of business

Lastly, while we may not catch them we never know what the committee may think on close calls - so still worth seeing Vandy, Xavier or Kansas St lose today/

There is a good chance that we are in the same Last In / First Out position until at least tomorrow

 

[jncuse]

Today's Schedule

Bold to Lose

Key Games (Note 1)
12:30 UTEP vs Middle Tenn St
1:00 Georgia vs Kentucky
6:30 Indiana vs Wisconsin
7:00 TCU vs Iowa St
9:00 Cal vs Oregon


Other Games
12:00 East Carolina vs SMU (Note 2)
2:30 Rhode Island vs St. Bonaventure (Note 3)
6:30 George Mason vs VCU (Note 4)
7:00 Tulsa vs Cincinnati (Note 2)
7:00 Vanderbilt vs Florida (Note 5)
9:00 Kansas St vs West Virginia (Note 5)
9:00 Xavier vs Creighton (Note 5)
9:30 Houston vs UConn (Note 3)
10:00 Fresno St vs Nevada (Note 6)


Note 1 - If any of these teams win (or Middle Tennessee St loses), we could lose that "last" spot.
Note 2 - Cincy/SMU to win AAC
Note 3 - Rhode Island need to win today to have the "over the top" win chance tomorrow.
Note 4 - Dayton/VCU to win A-10
Note 5 - Teams that are probably ahead of us, but you never know
Note 6 - Nevada to win MwC (if this does not happen it may not hurt us)

 

[jdubs30]

As the days went on, we were going to lose some games. I think now, besides URI, Cal, Indiana and TCU we are strictly worrying about BID STEALERS.

Like jn mentioned - we need SMU/Cincy, Nevada, MTSU Dayton/VCU to stay chalk

Don't forget this is still a weak bubble - as long as URI/Cal/IU/TCU don't go crazy (and I guess UGA) we're still right there.

Remember, just because the matrix might list us as last in/first out - doesn't mean the committee agrees. I mean the matrix has Wake 5 spots ahead of us - its certainly conceivable that the committee could have us ahead of Wake.

Last night sucked but we have games today that could result in our favor

 

[20Plus]

As I apparently fell asleep in my recliner last night posting I hate Baylor meme's, I never had a chance to sit back and re-assess.

I don't have new matrix standings (will be available around noon), but what can assess they will look like something like this).

Xavier
Wake Forest
Providence
Vanderbilt
USC
Kansas St
Syracuse / Rhode Island
------- In / Out -----------
Syracuse / Rhode Island
Illinois St
Cal
Georgia
Indiana
TCU
Houston


So at the absolute worst we are the last team in / first team out as of now. Even if end up the first team out on the matrix,. we still have decent chance. All it takes is the committee to think we are better than one of the teams above us at this point (which includes Rhode Island)

We are "tied" with Rhode Island - so until they beat Dayton or VCU, they are not passing us.

No more At-Large Teams Moving Past Us Today (Bold to Lose)
1:00 Georgia vs Kentucky
6:30 Indiana vs Wisconsin
7:00 TCU vs Iowa St
9:00 Cal vs Oregon

No guarantee that any of teams pass us with a win especially Indiana. We can get a 3-0 split in the other games. The other team in this race is Houston. Today's game against UConn is not the one that will put it over the top. It's still reasonably possible that none of these teams pass us.

As for the bubble busters
Middle Tennessee St must keep on winning
Cincy/SMU must win AAC
Dayton/VCU must win A-10
It would be nice if Nevada wins the MWC
It's still reasonably possible that the top 3 take care of business

Lastly, while we may not catch them we never know what the committee may think on close calls - so still worth seeing Vandy, Xavier or Kansas St lose today/

There is a good chance that we are in the same Last In / First Out position until at least tomorrow

Great job. As always! Thank you. Love that you mentioned committee may view us in ahead if a few teams because they should

USC 2 wins SMU and UCLA

 

[jncuse]

As the days went on, we were going to lose some games. I think now, besides URI, Cal, Indiana and TCU we are strictly worrying about BID STEALERS.

Like jn mentioned - we need SMU/Cincy, Nevada, MTSU Dayton/VCU to stay chalk

Don't forget this is still a weak bubble - as long as URI/Cal/IU/TCU don't go crazy (and I guess UGA) we're still right there.

Remember, just because the matrix might list us as last in/first out - doesn't mean the committee agrees. I mean the matrix has Wake 5 spots ahead of us - its certainly conceivable that the committee could have us ahead of Wake.

Last night sucked but we have games today that could result in our favor

Agreed, I made the point above, but it was buried in a apargraph. If we are last one out it doesn't necessarily mean that we are behind all of them. All it take is one difference from the committee perspective. But they key now is to hope it stays at one difference.

 

[orangenirvana]

 

[jdubs30]

Curious what some of you think about actually rooting for Houston today? Beating UConn will do nothing for their resume, especially if they lose to Cincy on Saturday - they'd be done. However, the AAC Tourney is on UConn's home floor - it's very possible that even though they've been awful, they could get hot for 3 games infront of their 7,500 home fans.

I think when push comes to shove I'll root for UConn - but you could certainly see them getting hot at home (maybe)

 

[Cuse House]

Curious what some of you think about actually rooting for Houston today? Beating UConn will do nothing for their resume, especially if they lose to Cincy on Saturday - they'd be done. However, the AAC Tourney is on UConn's home floor - it's very possible that even though they've been awful, they could get hot for 3 games infront of their 7,500 home fans.

I think when push comes to shove I'll root for UConn - but you could certainly see them getting hot at home (maybe)

Is a meteor an option?

 

[NineOneSeven]

Bless your heart jncuse

At this point, would be shocking to me. I think less than 10%.

 

[orangenirvana]

I did my calculations and according to my precise scientific method, these are THE rankings you guys!

Hopes are quickly dissipating for Syracuse. Indiana and TCU winning today would be pretty disastrous imo. The Bonnies could really help us out.

 

[jncuse]

Bless your heart jncuse

At this point, would be shocking to me. I think less than 10%.

Last week I tried to dissuade people that we were locked in or close to it with the win over Georgia Tech. I don't like dealing in near absolutes when you are on the bubble. And now we have seen why. But now it goes the other way. All is not lost - we still have a decent chance. We were always too close to be an absolute yes or absolute no.

We (AND ME) tend to make too much of inidividual games this week... and yet I am still doing it in this thread. We just need to trust that the committee looks at 32 equal games... this week was just one or two of the overall package,


If I believed that we were at less than 10%, I would not have wasted my time posting this. Is it possible that at the end of day or tomorrow enough chaos could have happened that it is the case? Sure. But it has not happened yet, and I don't think it will to that point.

I'm not going to assure anyone that we are going to get in for sure, or even more likely than not, But we are still in the heart of the discussion as of now. People like Alsacs, Chris, Nirvana, can still make reasonable cases why we are ahead of the teams above us (although they have good cases against us too).

All we can hope is that waters stop getting muddied.

 

[Chris02M]

I have a hard time seeing know state that many spots past us.

 

[djorange1989]

I did my calculations and according to my precise scientific method, these are THE rankings you guys!

Hopes are quickly dissipating for Syracuse. Indiana and TCU winning today would be pretty disastrous imo. The Bonnies could really help us out.

View attachment 91344

awesome, great work! It will be interesting to see how the committee judges us vs Wake. Matrix has them way ahead of us, but look at resumes. They clearly have been better on the road than us (big deal, I think Oregon State and Rutgers are better than us on the road) but we do have the H2H win over them, plus 6 top 50/3 top 25 wins vs 3/1 for them. I don't think it is that clear cut. Definitely need IU and TCU to get bounced today. I think Iowa State will take care of TCU, they are a motivated high energy team who sees an open path to the Big 12 title with KU and Baylor out (WVU being a huge obstacle potentially). Wisconsin has been playing like crap however, so can't have them lose to IU, although IU still needs at least one more win after that if they do win today.

 

[djorange1989]

I have a hard time seeing know state that many spots past us.

Or Wake.

 

[upperdeck]

so now the committee would have to go from never having a 15 loss at large to 3 if tcu/indiana/vandy all get it some how..

 

[oli44]

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

As I apparently fell asleep in my recliner last night posting I hate Baylor memes,

I laughed

 

[Jasoncuse]

Or Wake.

Or Vandy. Or Michigan State. Or Rhode Island.

 

[rrlbees]

Still in here.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections: March 10, 2017 by @AndyBottoms

 

[Chris02M]

Or Wake.

Wake I can see ahead of us by 1 or 2 spots from road wins no bad losses

 

[Chris02M]

Or Vandy. Or Michigan State. Or Rhode Island.

Vanderbilt I can see as they 2 wins vs to 3 seeds with 1 away and there non confirm Sosa answer top 50 wins

 

[CorduroyG]

Still in here.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections: March 10, 2017 by @AndyBottoms

Apparently he's been the most accurate bracketologist the last few years. He doesn't sound very convincing about having us in though. He basically said he put us in because we got in easily last year when we were on bubble. That's got nothing to do with this year.

We have so many #s against us, we really need everything to go our way today to have a legit shot.

 

[CorduroyG]

Vanderbilt I can see as they 2 wins vs to 3 seeds with 1 away and there non confirm Sosa answer top 50 wins

My brain hurts lol

 

[Ryand877]

Today's Schedule

Bold to Lose

Key Games (Note 1)
12:30 UTEP vs Middle Tenn St
1:00 Georgia vs Kentucky
6:30 Indiana vs Wisconsin
7:00 TCU vs Iowa St
9:00 Cal vs Oregon


Other Games
12:00 East Carolina vs SMU (Note 2)
2:30 Rhode Island vs St. Bonaventure (Note 3)
6:30 George Mason vs VCU (Note 4)
7:00 Tulsa vs Cincinnati (Note 2)
7:00 Vanderbilt vs Florida (Note 5)
9:00 Kansas St vs West Virginia (Note 5)
9:00 Xavier vs Creighton (Note 5)
9:30 Houston vs UConn (Note 3)
10:00 Fresno St vs Nevada (Note 6)


Note 1 - If any of these teams win (or Middle Tennessee St loses), we could lose that "last" spot.
Note 2 - Cincy/SMU to win AAC
Note 3 - Rhode Island need to win today to have the "over the top" win chance tomorrow.
Note 4 - Dayton/VCU to win A-10
Note 5 - Teams that are probably ahead of us, but you never know
Note 6 - Nevada to win MwC (if this does not happen it may not hurt us)

You don't think a Rhode Island win today alone puts them ahead of us?

 

[orangenirvana]

You don't think a Rhode Island win today alone puts them ahead of us?

Depends on how much this committee decides to value Sagarin and BPI and big wins that only occur at home.

Also forgot to mention the all-important backroom deals and political favors. And how much the committee members like our AD.