Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

[jncuse]

I'll take USC, Cal and Illinois State and give you Iowa, Vandy and Indiana. I'll bet you my trio gets more invites to the dance than your trio.

Cal has done nothing -- beating 7 crappy Pac 12 teams, Vermont, and winning at USC is not a great resume. So they need to do something big in the P12 tourney.

USC has done a little more, and got two quality wins (top 25). I think they will get in unless they do something stupid (get another bad loss).

Illinois St is a crapshoot. I have them as 40/60. Don't think they will, but would not be shocked either.

But then again I am not that high on his list. They all need to do something big as well.

I'm going to go 1-1.

 

[jncuse]

Illinois goes from in (on the matrix anyways), to get smacked on the head by Rutgers.

Clearly on the outside right now.

 

[iommi]

Who told Illinois it was a good idea to dive headfirst into a dumpster fire?

 

[jdubs30]

what Rutgers just did is exactly what a BC game for us on Tuesday would be like - an absolute lose/lose.

 

[obliterata]

Way to go Rutgers, you're up next Depaul.

 

[orangenirvana]

I gave you a like because you put it out there for discussion. Don't fully agree with everything.

- I tend to agree Marquette is a lock -- they can't do anything bad enough at this point to knock them off.
- Arkansas is a lock - they are 100% in on the matrix as well.
- Indiana is IMO the closest of the teams with no recognition on the matrix, but I still think they probably need 3 more win (if they are the 11 seed in the B10). So they would not be in my "as of now" field, but they could get there especially after winning at Ohio St today.

I think you are ignorning the other factors when excluding Wake and Xavier.

Illinois St "totals" on the matrix are inflated because of the method. Once they lose in the MVC in the tourney we will get a more accurate number. It will be much lower. I tend not to discount them because I think the commitee will be looking hard to validate these type of teams this year (just a hunch)

Cal no disagreement -- the big thing for USC and Cal will have is an opportunity to knock off Oregon, UCLA, or Arizona on a neutral floor next week.

Ok I wondered where Arkansas was.

Indiana was my "last team out" going into today. That may have changed after their win at OSU and Illinois' loss. 2 more now might be right but they have some good wins that will impress the committee.

I think Wake is good enough to be an NCAA team but as far as their resume goes I just think the committee will recognize that their good rankings are bloated by SOS and no bad losses. That's all well and good but 2-9 against the Top 50 is simply not good enough especially when both wins occurred at home (which is the knock on Syracuse). I really think they need two more good wins (BC or NCSt doesn't count) to get in. The same applies to Xavier, who I have in right now but they're teetering.

Your hunch could be right. Up until the last couple of years the committee seems to change their criteria and standards every year. That could happen again considering there's really no accountability.

 

[cuseattle]

Welcome to the future. Rutgers win, and my phone keeps telling me another fembot has joined the room.

 

[jncuse]

Ok I wondered where Arkansas was.

Indiana was my "last team out" going into today. That may have changed after their win at OSU and Illinois' loss. 2 more now might be right but they have some good wins that will impress the committee.

I think Wake is good enough to be an NCAA team but as far as their resume goes I just think the committee will recognize that their good rankings are bloated by SOS and no bad losses. That's all well and good but 2-9 against the Top 50 is simply not good enough especially when both wins occurred at home (which is the knock on Syracuse). I really think they need two more good wins (BC or NCSt doesn't count) to get in. The same applies to Xavier, who I have in right now but they're teetering.

Your hunch could be right. Up until the last couple of years the committee seems to change their criteria and standards every year. That could happen again considering there's really no accountability.

Indiana is very close to the last 4 in my view, which means it's in striking distance. Kansas and North Carolina is a heck of base for a resume. Their Big 10 schedule lacks big results -- wins over Michigan St and Northwestern. In my view they still need a little good, but maybe not that much

 

[jncuse]

Some half time scores.

Have to watch this Georgia game - a top 50 road win is a mover.

Seems like Vandy won't get that big win that would put it over the top.

Depaul hanging with Xavier. We need another former Big East scrub to come through for us.

Michigan St is in very good shape, but I had to include them to make my snip work.

 

[jncuse]

Not a mover for Kansas St. I am sure those that have them in (about 15%) like the in conference road wins at Baylor, Oklahoma St and TCU. But of course they lost to all 3 at home as well. But a Big 12 team can certainly make a move in their tourney.

 

[orangenirvana]

Watching Vandy, they look like a good team to me even though they have 14 losses. I think trading Kevin from The Office for Bryce Drew was a huge upgrade for them.

 

[jdubs30]

View attachment 90831

Not a mover for Kansas St. I am sure those that have them in (about 15%) like the in conference road wins at Baylor, Oklahoma St and TCU. But of course they lost to all 3 at home as well. But a Big 12 team can certainly make a move in their tourney.

Tech needed that win though.

 

[jncuse]

Tech needed that win though.

I think I would have preferred Tech to win (going against my go for the home team general principle), but you are right there is still a positive either way.

 

[jncuse]

As bad as 9:00 Wednesday games was for us, this 2:00 set of games could turn out to be outstanding for us

 

[jncuse]

Damn, Barry goes 0-2 from the FT line. Could be a momentum shifter.

 

[Chris02M]

Indiana is very close to the last 4 in my view, which means it's in striking distance. Kansas and North Carolina is a heck of base for a resume. Their Big 10 schedule lacks big results -- wins over Michigan St and Northwestern. In my view they still need a little good, but maybe not that much

for comparison sake my latest rankings:

last 6 in:
41-Syracuse
42-Xavier
44-Usc
45-Wake Forest
46-Illinois State
47-Vanderbily

first 7 out:
69-Rhode Island
70- Kansas State
71- Georgia Tech
72- California
73-Iowa
74-Indiana
75- Georgia

still considering but need deep run in conference tourney:
Clemson, Ilinois, Byu, Houston

 

[jncuse]

Game has been within 1 or 2 for much of the game, but it seems Xavier is finally trying to push away,

 

[Ish88888]

Indiana is very close to the last 4 in my view, which means it's in striking distance. Kansas and North Carolina is a heck of base for a resume. Their Big 10 schedule lacks big results -- wins over Michigan St and Northwestern. In my view they still need a little good, but maybe not that much

Their wins are very good. Probably better than our big wins. They probably should be in the same conversation with us right about now. @OSU is also more impressive than hopefully, our win against GT today.

 

[orangenirvana]

I think that Michigan State locks up a bid if they can beat Maryland.

 

[jdubs30]

A few games that are almost done are going our way...don't want to jinx it though

 

[Chris02M]

I think that Michigan State locks up a bid if they can beat Maryland.

i think there in regardless of outcomes the rest of the way

 

[jdubs30]

i think there in regardless of outcomes the rest of the way

They most likely are - but Maryland is more of a lock than MSU is.

 

[Chris02M]

They most likely are - but Maryland is more of a lock than MSU is.

yes maryland is a 6 or 7 while msu is 8 or 9

 

[jdubs30]

Down goes Cal!

UGA misses a shot for a big road win

 

[orangenirvana]

For those who still consider Cal a bubble (we're all entitled to our crazy opinions), they just lost to Colorado.