Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

orangenirvana said:
I'm not quite as confident. This was a bad week for Syracuse.
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not in my eyes we won our only game and found our shooting form. a few bubble teams won from below and some from bubble lost
 
Looks like Wake has this.

Today can't be a "bad" day given that we won. But it is disappointment that there were 3 "mover games" for teams right around us or not too far below us... and 2 of 3 were mild upset wins... Vaderbilt over Florida and Wake at Virginia Tech. Georgia lost at Arkansas which was nice but they were far behind.

One could also point to the top 25 victories of Marquette and Seton Hall, but they may have both been in a tier above us anyway. But now there is no debate - those should be locks.

Illinois losing to Rutgers is not enough to offset all of that. We may have done enough already, but I would say that probability went down a bit today. We need that ACC win to feel safe.

Right now I feel we are in the Committee Judgement range which can justifiably go anyway and I won't be pissed. If we win the next game, I think the only we miss is if the committee is really inconsistent or makes an outright error
 
jncuse said:
I have it at 45/55 right now.
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meaning a loss to Miami and we have a 45 percent chance (barring bid stealers and other significant movement) right?
 
I would say 50/50 if we lose to Miami, we have some key marks against us, 14 losses, 2 road wins, some bad losses, beat Miami and we are a lock.
 
Here's a game to keep an eye on...

upload_2017-3-4_18-43-47.png
 
OrangeYaGladi said:
meaning a loss to Miami and we have a 45 percent chance (barring bid stealers and other significant movement) right?
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The bid stealers part is the part that worries me the most. This is college basketball. Strange things often happen.
 
OrangeYaGladi said:
meaning a loss to Miami and we have a 45 percent chance (barring bid stealers and other significant movement) right?
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The 45% estimate includes the possibility for bid stealers or somebody from below making a run. If we assumed none of those I would have us over 50%.

I have 1 or 2 spots reserved for those - one for a bubble buster (AAC, A-10, Middle Tennesee St), and one for a team from a P5+1 making a run like (Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas St, Clemson, Cal, Georgia, TCU, BYU). Maybe none of those teams have a great chance, but I have to think 1 makes a long run.
 
if we lost to miami we will be one of the last 4 in or just out depending on bid tstealers or runs in conf tourney. root for illinois state to lose tonight then there bubble bursts
 
jncuse said:
The 45% estimate includes the possibility for bid stealers or somebody from below making a run. If we assumed none of those I would have us over 50%.

I have 1 or 2 spots reserved for those - one for a bubble buster (AAC, A-10, Middle Tennesee St), and one for a team from a P5+1 making a run like (Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas St, Clemson, Cal, Georgia, TCU, BYU). Maybe none of those teams have a great chance, but I have to think 1 makes a long run.
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I'm rooting hard for Wichita State right now and tomorrow. Only up by 3 vs. Missouri State at the half right now.
 
bpo57 said:
The bid stealers part is the part that worries me the most. This is college basketball. Strange things often happen.
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Not overly worried about the number being larger than 1 due to a lack of opportunities.

There will not be a bid stolen in the P5+1. The ACC, B10, BE, B12, SEC have so many teams in that one of those will win their tournaments. The P12 may only have 3 or 4 team in, but one of those 3 top teams will win that conference.

That leaves the AAC with some exposure to a third team but Cincy/SMU look real good, I hate 2 vs 10 type deals, but I am going to say they have a 80% chance of being the winner,

The A-10 worries me the most. I don't like VCU+Dayton vs the field.

I am fairly certain Gonzaga or St. Mary's takes care of the WCC. My only concern is that BYU takes out St. Mary's in the process. I would not think that is enough for them but it muddies things.

We will know more about the MVC tomorrow. I am certainly hoping Wichita St wins because they are a 100% bid stealer, while despite your opinion, Illinois St is not a 100% bid stealer. And the thing with Illinois St is if you use the matrix as a guide, they already have an at-large spots.

After those conferences none of the other conferences have a team I am that worried about as an at large other than Middle Tennessee St. But they are hardly a sure thing.

So I stick to my estimate of 1. I think 0 or 2 is in the realm of possibility as welll.
 
Cuse House said:
He had us as like the 7th or 8th last team in, which I assume holds firm with the win.
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Maintain or at most move down 2 spots. Only 2 teams did something big enough to actually pass us. Vanderbilt and Wake.
 
Very early, but it would be great to test BPO's theory that they can survive a bad loss.

upload_2017-3-4_19-3-50.png
 
jncuse said:
Maintain or at most move down 2 spots. Only 2 teams did something big enough to actually pass us. Vanderbilt and Wake.
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And we have the h2h with Wake. Turned out to be a good win.
 
jncuse said:
Not overly worried about the number being larger than 1 due to a lack of opportunities.

There will not be a bid stolen in the P5+1. The ACC, B10, BE, B12, SEC have so many teams in that one of those will win their tournaments. The P12 may only have 3 or 4 team in, but one of those 3 top teams will win that conference.

That leaves the AAC with some exposure to a third team but Cincy/SMU look real good, I hate 2 vs 10 type deals, but I am going to say they have a 80% chance of being the winner,

The A-10 worries me the most. I don't like VCU+Dayton vs the field.

I am fairly certain Gonzaga or St. Mary's takes care of the WCC. My only concern is that BYU takes out St. Mary's in the process. I would not think that is enough for them but it muddies things.

We will know more about the MVC tomorrow. I am certainly hoping Wichita St wins because they are a 100% bid stealer, while despite your opinion, Illinois St is not a 100% bid stealer. And the thing with Illinois St is if you use the matrix as a guide, they already have an at-large spots.

After those conferences none of the other conferences have a team I am that worried about as an at large other than Middle Tennessee St. But they are hardly a sure thing.

So I stick to my estimate of 1. I think 0 or 2 is in the realm of possibility as welll.
Expand...

It might only take two to bump us out.

I agree with you on the A-10, maybe a 50/50 shot they get three teams in. MTSU has a decent shot if they lose in the C-USA finals.

Of the Power 5 I could see the SEC or B1G with a small possibility of a strange outcome. Neither league has dominant teams in it. UK is too up and down.

Agreed that the AAC top two look very good but neither team needs to win to get in. Wouldn't it be a kick in the nuts if our friends at UConn stole a bid?
 
bpo57 said:
Read post #55 in this thread. I agreed with you "unless they do something stupid."
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Well you did say either way they did have an ok shot.

Don't really care either way. I am much more concerned about USC losing then either one of us being right or wrong.
 
jncuse said:
Not overly worried about the number being larger than 1 due to a lack of opportunities.

There will not be a bid stolen in the P5+1. The ACC, B10, BE, B12, SEC have so many teams in that one of those will win their tournaments. The P12 may only have 3 or 4 team in, but one of those 3 top teams will win that conference.

That leaves the AAC with some exposure to a third team but Cincy/SMU look real good, I hate 2 vs 10 type deals, but I am going to say they have a 80% chance of being the winner,

The A-10 worries me the most. I don't like VCU+Dayton vs the field.

I am fairly certain Gonzaga or St. Mary's takes care of the WCC. My only concern is that BYU takes out St. Mary's in the process. I would not think that is enough for them but it muddies things.

We will know more about the MVC tomorrow. I am certainly hoping Wichita St wins because they are a 100% bid stealer, while despite your opinion, Illinois St is not a 100% bid stealer. And the thing with Illinois St is if you use the matrix as a guide, they already have an at-large spots.

After those conferences none of the other conferences have a team I am that worried about as an at large other than Middle Tennessee St. But they are hardly a sure thing.

So I stick to my estimate of 1. I think 0 or 2 is in the realm of possibility as welll.
Expand...
Not that we want to rely on "the eye test" but if anybody has actually watched BYU... that's not a tourney team.

Next year they could be really good if they give even a little bit of effort on defense, though.
 
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