Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

[orangenirvana]

I guess that's an adjustment from "no way the MVC gets two bids." And I'll take your response as a decline of the bet offer. Let me know if you reconsider.

I don't recall ever saying "no way the MVC gets two bids." What I said was, "The only way the MVC gets two bids is if Illinois State wins the championship."

 

[MSOrange]

Based on yesterday's matrix 26 or 45 had Illinois St as a 12 seed or missing the tourney. On the other hand 5 of 45 had Wichita St as a 12 seed or missing the tourney. It's quite possible that many of those 12 seeds saw them as a conference champ (and not at large), as a common tiebreaker for some is RPI and Illinois had a higher RPI than Wichita St.

Either way if we trust the matrix, Illinois St is maybe a tad below 50% as at an large and Wichita St is over 90% as an at large. So it's possible they still get 2, but Illinois St is a clear unknown. Go SHOCKERS!


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Other then that it's a pretty laid back day. You have Iowa at home as a 6 point favourite against Penn St., to maintain their position.

Long shot bubble buster UNC Wilmington and unlikely at large team Houston play fairly routine games at home.

The MVC was the game I was waiting for you to post about. My initial inclination was to cheer for Wichita State. I just can't see Illinois State getting an at large with the best non-conference win being New Mexico.

 

[TexanMark]

As jncuse stated...the midmajor bid thieves IMHO are very weak this year. Looking at BracketMatrix...I only see Illinois St. and Middle Tennessee St. as possible bid stealers. If Illinois St. loses today they might be left out...and if MTSU loses this next week...they should fall out.

I say go Shockers, go MTSU.

Added insurance I guess...we should root for UNC-Wilmington.

 

[MSOrange]

jncuse This guy seems to think Michigan State is back in trouble after losing twice this week. Your thoughts? I still think they make it, but would be a good idea to win one in the Big 10 tournament.

Bubble watch: Who hurt their NCAA tournament chances Saturday?

 

[jncuse]

Added insurance I guess...we should root for UNC-Wilmington.

I was going to say root against them because it's still a regular season game and then start cheering for them next week.

But today is actually a CAA semi-final game. So you are correct ... just in case let's cheer for them as well.

 

[upperdeck]

who knows what the committee does.. do they reward teams that won big games, then we are good.. if they punish teams that lost to bad teams then we have issues. do they look at what each team went thru and realize the changes that were made after the BC game? this team now does not lose to all the 3 old BE teams.

take nw likely 10-8 in b10 vs our 10-8 in acc. didnt have the bad OOC loss but also didnt have the really big wins. would you see them an 8 over our 10?

we might not get in, but be favored in vegas our many teams that will make it. if you used BPI we would be favored over 1/3 of the field.

 

[jncuse]

The MVC was the game I was waiting for you to post about. My initial inclination was to cheer for Wichita State. I just can't see Illinois State getting an at large with the best non-conference win being New Mexico.

I did a swerve with them yesterday.

My approach with mid-majors this year was they were going to give them the benefit of the doubt if the individual rankings were good enough. And Illinois St rankings were just good enough, So I thought they had a good chance.

I don't why I had just assumed that their OOC was OK. I assumed it was one of those situations that they lacked quality wins because nobody would play them at home For some reason i thought it was a good record, but an empty record.

When I looked at it yesterday they had a real bad OOC. It wasn't just lack of opportunity. But losing to Murray St (#230), Tulsa, TCU, San Francisco was just too much.

 

[upperdeck]

one thing that interesting. there has been one 14 loss at large team in the last 25 years. they dont even like to take 13 loss teams most of the time. 3 teams like that in one year is crazy.

this year 13 loss teams probably 14. MSU/SU/
this year 14 loss team probably 15. vandy

bubbles just out ill/iowa/gt (14), indiana/clemson (15)

 

[RaleighSUfan]

Just taking the most conservative position as to how the "committee" sees us in terms of listing. Remember we have some massive warts.

Last 10 Teams on Committee Listing Entering Next Week
Marquette
Michigan St
Providence
Seton Hall
Wake Forest
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island
------- In/Out-----


If you are start off with the assumption that we are anywhere above 5th on that list we are in good shape with a loss to Miami. We likely can't get caught.

Anywhere 2 or below on that list we are very exposed with a loss to Miami. We are also exposed at the 3 spot, and a tad exposed at the 4 spot. Bubble busters (Wichita St, MTSU, AAC, A-10) , any of 1 of the following making a major move next week (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Cal, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Kansas St, Georgia)

We can certainly make a good argument that we are above 3 teams on that list. But I don't think it's a given that we start at #4 in the committee's view. That is the issue in my mind.

In my view this is the bottom five.
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island

Are we sure we are #1 or #2 on that list -- per the committee?

Are you saying that out of that group of 10 teams, you'd rank us 8th? I'm not dismissing our ugly losses, but there's no way I can see 7 of those teams ahead of us.

 

[jncuse]

who knows what the committee does.. do they reward teams that won big games, then we are good.. if they punish teams that lost to bad teams then we have issues. do they look at what each team went thru and realize the changes that were made after the BC game? this team now does not lose to all the 3 old BE teams. (NO)

take nw likely 10-8 in b10 vs our 10-8 in acc. didnt have the bad OOC loss but also didnt have the really big wins. would you see them an 8 over our 10?

we might not get in, but be favored in vegas our many teams that will make it. if you used BPI we would be favored over 1/3 of the field.

I will spin your comment diffrently because it's about right, except for the last point I bolded.

We do know what the committee looks at when separting the bubble- we just don't know how they will judge or weigh the total package of key factors.
- Quality of Wins (Highest Key Factor)
- Performance Away from Home
- OOC SOS
- Team Rankings (RPI / BPI / KP / Sag)
- head to head if applicable
- bad losses

One thing for sure we know they do not look at is your bolded point. They have made that clear in many chats over the years (pre and post selection) and it also has born itself out in picks. Body of Work concept. Time of year when a game was played is irrelevant.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

Very simple. Just win two games in the tourney, OK?

 

[upperdeck]

yes they do look at changes but usually only for how teams play with injuries and seeding. my question would be why dont they look at the teams as a whole. when a team makes huge changes and it shows in how they play it shouldnt be ignored

 

[jncuse]

Are you saying that out of that group of 10 teams, you'd rank us 8th? I'm not dismissing our ugly losses, but there's no way I can see 7 of those teams ahead of us.

I probably have us 5th or 6th which would be a nice position entering next week (and we could probably absorb a loss)

My point was more that it is quite plausible that the committee could see us as 8th or lower on that list. That puts us in a dangerous position entering next week. There is too much "committee Judgment" right now to put a lock on anything.

 

[jncuse]

Very simple. Just win two games in the tourney, OK?

Sure I will take two. 1 should be more than enough as long as Jerry Palm is not the chair.

 

[RaleighSUfan]

I probably have us 5th or 6th which would be a nice position entering next week (and we could probably absorb a loss)

My point was more that it is plausible that the committee could see us as 8th or lower on that list. That puts us in a dangerous position entering next week. There is too much "committee Judgment" right now to put a lock on anything.

That makes sense. I really like using the cbssports team comparison tool. It's a great way to evaluate the bubble teams and stack up against one another.

One thing is for certain, our RPI is horrible and our bad losses are really bad. On the positive side, Syracuse is one of the few bubble teams that's shown the ability to beat the top teams in the country. What's more important to the committee, avoiding bad losses or wins against elite level teams?

 

[jncuse]

yes they do look at changes but usually only for how teams play with injuries and seeding. my question would be why dont they look at the teams as a whole. when a team makes huge changes and it shows in how they play it shouldnt be ignored

one thing that interesting. there has been one 14 loss at large team in the last 25 years. they dont even like to take 13 loss teams most of the time. 3 teams like that in one year is crazy.

this year 13 loss teams probably 14. MSU/SU/
this year 14 loss team probably 15. vandy

bubbles just out ill/iowa/gt (14), indiana/clemson (15)

It's because the following conferences as a group have 3-4 less teams than normal (American, A-10, MVC, MWC). It's created spots that were not usually there.

 

[jncuse]

That makes sense. I really like using the cbssports team comparison tool. It's a great way to evaluate the bubble teams and stack up against one another.

One thing is for certain, our RPI is horrible and our bad losses are really bad. On the positive side, Syracuse is one of the few bubble teams that's shown the ability to beat the top teams in the country. What's more important to the committee, avoiding bad losses or wins against elite level teams?

I am more concerned about the lack of road wins than the bad losses.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

One thing for sure we know they do not look at is your bolded point. They have made that clear in many chats over the years (pre and post selection) and it also has born itself out in picks. Body of Work concept. Time of year when a game was played is irrelevant.

I disagree with your response to his " do they look at what each team went thru and realize the changes that were made after the BC game? this team now does not lose to all the 3 old BE teams."

IMO, the committee does consider changes. It is more pronounced on the negative side. In the past they have certainly downgraded teams for key players getting injured. And last year it seems possible the committee lessened the SU record when JB was absent. I remember one year when Memphis changed their pg (after SU had played and beat them) and it seemed to work in their favor as a storyline.

Unfortunately I don't think SU's change is so pronounced that the committee will give it much thought though. And while the committee certainly won't rewrite the record books with what ifs, they may view SU as being a better team now than they were before. But for a tie breaker they may think along the lines of is SU currently a better team than say an Il State, could help in that regard.

 

[RaleighSUfan]

Wow, I just looked at Jerry Palm's latest bracket. Syracuse in the 3rd team out! He has the following teams ahead of Syracuse:
Michigan State, Marquette, Providence, Arkansas, Wake, Kansas State, Cal, Rhode Island, Illinois and Vandy

I don't care what anyone says, that's insane! He must be placing significant emphasis on RPI.

 

[jncuse]

Wow, I just looked at Jerry Palm's latest bracket. Syracuse in the 3rd team out! He has the following teams ahead of Syracuse:
Michigan State, Marquette, Providence, Arkansas, Wake, Kansas State, Cal, Rhode Island, Illinois and Vandy

I don't care what anyone says, that's insane! He must be placing significant emphasis on RPI.

Cal, Illinois and Kansas St are headscratchers -- they are 56-58 in RPI so probably affirmative on that.

 

[jdubs30]

Palm has continuously said the reason he doesn't like us is our lack of road wins.

Kansas State is interesting in that sense. They have 5 road wins and 3 neutral court wins. They are the opposite of us. They're 5-10 vs. the top 100, but 3 of those 5 wins were on the road and 1 of those wins was on a neutral court. The only top 100 team they've beaten at home is WVU. Meanwhile we're 9-10 vs. the top 50, with only 1 of those wins coming on the road.

I wouldn't mind seeing KState get in - I think their resume is good enough although their OOC is awful besides a neutral court win vs. Colorado State.

I don't get Cal or Illinois at all though.

 

[jncuse]

I disagree with your response to his " do they look at what each team went thru and realize the changes that were made after the BC game? this team now does not lose to all the 3 old BE teams."

IMO, the committee does consider changes. It is more pronounced on the negative side. In the past they have certainly downgraded teams for key players getting injured. And last year it seems possible the committee lessened the SU record when JB was absent. I remember one year when Memphis changed their pg (after SU had played and beat them) and it seemed to work in their favor as a storyline.

Unfortunately I don't think SU's change is so pronounced that the committee will give it much thought though. And while the committee certainly won't rewrite the record books with what ifs, they may view SU as being a better team now than they were before. But for a tie breaker they may think along the lines of is SU currently a better team than say an Il State, could help in that regard.

I guess we agree to disagree. It's something the committee says over and over to disregard every year. Time of year of a result does not matter. Virginia was left out with an 11-7 ACC record some years back because it did too much damage to itself in OOC.

Injuries they do take into account as they state. I don't know if I have seen this actually applied to a bubble team getting in or out though. It probably has, it's hard to notice. I don't remember it being cited as the reason for one team getting in. My general perception is that the threshold for playing "what if" has to be very high, I don't think they like to do it with bubble teams.

I also think JB's departure was not going to make an impact last year. I think the article written by the Syracuse writer last year was a poorly written. His took direct quotes but the key points in his article were not in quotations but explanations of quotations. I didn't fully buy it. And the chair himself after the selection show said that it was a totally irrelevant factor (maybe it was a dodge). But I think in the end they didn't need to consider it because we proved ourselves as streaky with the bad run at the end of the year (1-5). The quality road and neutral wins put us over the top.

As for changing lineups I believe that is 100% irrelevant. The storyline was probably presented by some media types when they argued why a team should get in. Even if Memphis got in, I doubt that was a factor. But maybe I am wrong.

 

[jncuse]

Palm has continuously said the reason he doesn't like us is our lack of road wins.

Kansas State is interesting in that sense. They have 5 road wins and 3 neutral court wins. They are the opposite of us. They're 5-10 vs. the top 100, but 3 of those 5 wins were on the road and 1 of those wins was on a neutral court. The only top 100 team they've beaten at home is WVU. Meanwhile we're 9-10 vs. the top 50, with only 1 of those wins coming on the road.

I wouldn't mind seeing KState get in - I think their resume is good enough although their OOC is awful besides a neutral court win vs. Colorado State.

I don't get Cal or Illinois at all though.

Kansas St has a real oddity.

They beat Baylor, Oklahoma St, and TCU on the road. 3 really nice wins. But then they lost to those same 3 teams at home. Does that diminish it? Probably not. It shows you can win on the road, even though the record is the same in the end.

If we had went 2-2 against Pitt and Georgia Tech, but won the 2 games on the road, we would probably be cleanly in because we had 4 road wins. (still not a good total, but getting closer to acceptable)

 

[bpo57]

I don't recall ever saying "no way the MVC gets two bids." What I said was, "The only way the MVC gets two bids is if Illinois State wins the championship."

View attachment 90851

Prior to that statement you said no way the MVC gets two bids.

 

[bpo57]

Based on yesterday's matrix 26 or 45 had Illinois St as a 12 seed or missing the tourney. On the other hand 5 of 45 had Wichita St as a 12 seed or missing the tourney. It's quite possible that many of those 12 seeds saw them as a conference champ (and not at large), as a common tiebreaker for some is RPI and Illinois had a higher RPI than Wichita St.

Either way if we trust the matrix, Illinois St is maybe a tad below 50% as at an large and Wichita St is over 90% as an at large. So it's possible they still get 2, but Illinois St is a clear unknown. Go SHOCKERS!


View attachment 90850

Other then that it's a pretty laid back day. You have Iowa at home as a 6 point favourite against Penn St., to maintain their position.

Long shot bubble buster UNC Wilmington and unlikely at large team Houston play fairly routine games at home.

The differences between WS and ISU are marginal but both have obviously dominated their league. ISU is playing much better now after sustaining a couple of bad losses nearly four months ago (sound familiar?). What if WS (who most nearly everybody has in right now regardless of today's outcome) and ISU play to a standstill and WS wins on a buzzer beater in OT? That should eliminate ISU?