Bubble Watch - March 11

[Briancuse]

I have a hard time seeing Bonnies in

If they get in over us, I will be ticked.

 

[Tom W.]

One key difference is they have won 10 of their last 12 while we have lost 5 of our last 6??

Perhaps. Total body of work more important though. And the win head to head is huge. Plus our Kenpom, Sagarin, BPI are all better.

 

[jncuse]

So if Uconn loses to RPI #236 in the AAC Tourney Final, do they fall back out of the field?

 

[CaptainJ]

I like the head to head. I'm still worried about the NCAA trying to find a way to screw Boeheim though. Theyre more creative than the dance team's numbers when it comes to that.

 

[pearl31]

So if Uconn loses to RPI #236 in the AAC Tourney Final, do they fall back out of the field?

ha good question

 

[Tom W.]

So if Uconn loses to RPI #236 in the AAC Tourney Final, do they fall back out of the field?

Guess its possible, but at this point, for us, it might just be better for them to win to raise our rpi a little more. Don't want Memphis or Tulane stealing a bid, that would do no bubble team any good.

 

[CaptainJ]

Anyhow, which among you has realtime RPI? I imagine someone on here must be rabid enough? Come Forth!!!

 

[jdubs30]

So if Uconn loses to RPI #236 in the AAC Tourney Final, do they fall back out of the field?

Does it matter? Then either you have Tulane getting the auto and POSSIBLY UConn getting an at-large. If UConn wins they get the auto with 0 other at-large possibilities (besides Cincy). I doubt losing to Tulane will knock them out, especially since they will beat Temple to get there.

 

[pearl31]

Does it matter? Then either you have Tulane getting the auto and POSSIBLY UConn getting an at-large. If UConn wins they get the auto with 0 other at-large possibilities (besides Cincy). I doubt losing to Tulane will knock them out, especially since they will beat Temple to get there.

yeah they'd almost certainly get the benefit of the doubt but that would still be a horrendous loss

 

[jdubs30]

yeah they'd almost certainly get the benefit of the doubt but that would still be a horrendous loss

It would be--but the effect of that loss on their RPI and consequently our RPI--not good!

 

[jncuse]

Guess its possible, but at this point, for us, it might just be better for them to win to raise our rpi a little more. Don't want Memphis or Tulane stealing a bid, that would do no bubble team any good.

Absolutely Tom -- I don't want UConn (or Temple) to lose that game. I am just bringing up a scenario that is not helpful to us, but would screw UConn.

 

[Tom W.]

Tulsa is done too.

We need UConn to run the table -- Michigan to lose -- VCU to win -- A&M or UK to win the SEC.

All possible..

I'm not sure we want VCU to win. Davidson most likely has to win the whole tournament to be in, and with a loss VCU would be back down to the bubble.

 

[pearl31]

I'm not sure we want VCU to win. Davidson most likely has to win the whole tournament to be in, and with a loss VCU would be back down to the bubble.

yeah I think VCU is probably in anyway but that would just add more chaos to the overall bubble picture (theoretically good for us) if they were to lose to Davidson

 

[Tom W.]

yeah I think VCU is probably in anyway but that would just add more chaos to the overall bubble picture (theoretically good for us) if they were to lose to Davidson

Yep, exactly. I would think best case is Davidson over VCU and then Dayton over St Joes. Then of course Dayton winning the auto bid. Best case for us at least.

 

[NineOneSeven]

you guys are all savages with your bubble talk and analysis

Alsacs Chris02M jncuse pearl31 and out of nowhere Tom W.

 

[pearl31]

you guys are all savages with your bubble talk and analysis

Alsacs Chris02M jncuse pearl31 and out of nowhere Tom W.

hey man I had thrown the towel in Wednesday afternoon, swearing I would stay away from the board for the next couple of weeks - but then I started re-examining some of the other bubble teams and where we actually stood and quickly realized we weren't necessarily out of it at all - I'm glad I didn't just take the Pitt loss and say "that's it, we're done" (of course there's certainly a good chance we are indeed done - we'll just have to see what happens)

 

[CaptainJ]

you guys are all savages with your bubble talk and analysis

Alsacs Chris02M jncuse pearl31 and out of nowhere Tom W.

It may be the beer, but I LOLed at that. Tom W is the cinderella story that caught bleepin fire tonight and blindsided the heavyweights. I wish (bleep) like this would happen more often!

 

[iommi]

hey man I had thrown the towel in Wednesday afternoon, swearing I would stay away from the board for the next couple of weeks - but then I started re-examining some of the other bubble teams and where we actually stood and quickly realized we weren't necessarily out of it at all - I'm glad I didn't just take the Pitt loss and say "that's it, we're done" (of course there's certainly a good chance we are indeed done - we'll just have to see what happens)

Again, my concern is that no one, outside of Seth Greenberg, is advocating for us. To me, perception is reality. Yeah, I know, all the matters is what the committee thinks but I still would feel a little better if just about everyone didn't think we were done,

 

[Briancuse]

Again, my concern is that no one, outside of Seth Greenberg, is advocating for us. To me, perception is reality. Yeah, I know, all the matters is what the committee thinks but I still would feel a little better if just about everyone didn't think we were done,

The committee doesn't listen to them, btw isn't Bilas and Jwill talking us up?

 

[Tom W.]

Again, my concern is that no one, outside of Seth Greenberg, is advocating for us. To me, perception is reality. Yeah, I know, all the matters is what the committee thinks but I still would feel a little better if just about everyone didn't think we were done,

Jay Williams and Jay Bilas both spoke positively about us being in over some of the mid majors such as Monmouth and St Marys. That was on Thursday, but hey it's something.

 

[iommi]

The committee doesn't listen to them, btw isn't Bilas and Jwill talking us up?

I have not heard Bilas talking us up. I'm not saying you're wrong, just haven't heard.

 

[Briancuse]

I have not heard Bilas talking us up. I'm not saying you're wrong, just haven't heard.

I believe he said we should be in, I haven't heard anyone say we have no chance.

 

[Tom W.]

I believe he said we should be in, I haven't heard anyone say we have no chance.

Lunardi is basically being the only stickler saying we are out and ACC is done with bids. But hey, on Bracket Matrix he is only the 32nd or so ranked bracketologist in the world...lol

 

[Tom W.]

Tomorrow's best results for us IMO
Tip time:
1pm

• Texas A&M over LSU
• Purdue over Michigan

1:30pm

• Dayton over St Joes

3pm

• Kentucky over Georgia
• UConn over Temple

4:00pm

• Davidson over VCU

 

[CaptainJ]

Lunardi is basically being the only stickler saying we are out and ACC is done with bids. But hey, on Bracket Matrix he is only the 32nd or so ranked bracketologist in the world...lol

That is a great find/take! Tom W, I want to follow GoHamSU and acknowledge your emergence tonight. I'm being sincere, even if being humorous. This time of year I love rooting for the underdogs, and youre making some quality points tonight. Some of the members on here are like the "entitled" teams like Duke and UNC, and I'd love to see more of your posts to even this out some. Whatever you ate today, I suggest more of it my friend!